Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations

Transcription

1 State of Hawaii Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations Elementary School Teachers Medical Assistants Registered Nurses Teacher Assistants Nursing Assistants Security Guards Accountants & Auditors Waiters & Waitresses Future Cashiers Retail Salespersons General Office Clerks Retail Sales Sup ervisors August 2016

2 State of Hawaii David Y. Ige, Governor Department of Labor and Industrial Relations Linda Chu Takayama, Director Research and Statistics Office Phyllis Dayao, Chief Labor Market Research Section Vicki Lau, Section Supervisor Melonie Ogata, Research Statistician Kelvin Yoshida, Research Statistician (Temporary) The report is available at Contact us for questions and comments: Research and Statistics Office Department of Labor and Industrial Relations 830 Punchbowl Street, Room 304 Honolulu, HI Phone: This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.

3 Table of Contents Table of Contents Introduc on...1 Methodology: Understanding the Numbers...2 Methodology: Assump ons and Limita ons...3 Industry Employment Trends...4 Long-Term Industry Projec ons, State of Hawaii, Occupa onal Employment Trends...12 Long-Term Occupa onal Projec ons, State of Hawaii, Appendix A: Defini ons for the Educa on and Training Classifica on System Appendix B: Industry Defini ons...50 Appendix C: Occupa onal Classifica ons...52 List of Tables Table 1: Employment Projec ons by Major Industry Division, State of Hawaii, Table 2: Long-Term Industry Projec ons, State of Hawaii, Table 3: Employment Projec ons by Major Occupa onal Group, State of Hawaii, Table 4: Long-Term Occupa onal Projec ons, State of Hawaii, List of Figures Figure 1: Total Industry Employment, 2014 and Figure 2: Employment Distribu on by Major Industry Sector, Figure 3: Numerical Change in Detailed Wage and Salary Industries, State of Hawaii, Figure 4: Percent Change in Detailed Wage and Salary Industries, State of Hawaii, Figure 5: Percent Distribu on of Employment by Aggregated Occupa onal Group, Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii, i

4 Table of Contents Table of Contents (continued) Figure 6: Numeric Change in Employment by Major Occupa onal Group, State of Hawaii, Figure 7: Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupa onal Group, State of Hawaii, Figure 8: Job Openings by Major Occupa onal Group, State of Hawaii, Figure 9: Fastest Growing Occupa ons by Percentage Growth, State of Hawaii, Figure 10: Largest Numeric Growth in Occupa ons, State of Hawaii, Figure 11: Job Openings Based on Annual Growth and Replacements, State of Hawaii, Figure 12: Graduate Degree Occupa ons with the Highest Growth Rate, Figure 13: Graduate Degree Occupa ons with the Most Annual Openings, Figure 14: Bachelor s Degree Occupa ons with the Highest Growth Rate, Figure 15 Bachelor s Degree Occupa ons with the Most Annual Openings, Figure 16: Associate s Degree or Postsecondary Non-Degree Award Occupa ons with the Highest Growth Rate, Figure 17: Associate s Degree or Postsecondary Non-Degree Award Occupa ons with the Most Annual Openings, Figure 18: Occupa ons Requiring a High School Diploma or Equivalent with the Highest Growth Rate, Figure 19: Occupa ons Requiring a High School Diploma or Equivalent with the Most Annual Openings, Figure 20: Occupa ons Requiring Less than a High School Diploma with the Highest Growth Rate, Figure 21: Occupa ons Requiring Less than a High School Diploma with the Most Annual Openings, Figure 22: Largest Declining Occupa ons, State of Hawaii, ii Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

5 Introduction Introduction to the Employment Projections Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, provides long-term industry and occupational projections for the State of Hawaii using 2014 as the base year and projecting the data to The first section of this report looks at employment projections by industry. Several charts illustrate what is expected to happen at the industry level in Hawaii over the decade. A written analysis points out the trends at the broad industry level sector. Industries are classified by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The second section of this report focuses on employment projections by occupation. There are tables and graphs that illustrate what is anticipated to happen over the ten-year projected period. A written analysis covers the major occupational groups. Occupations are classified under Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes. Average annual job openings data are also included in this report. Job openings are either due to growth or replacement. The higher the replacements openings, the higher the turnover is for that occupation. It is recommended that both growth and replacement openings be used, therefore we also show total average annual openings. Additionally, this report includes education and training level requirements for each occupation, assigning categories for entry-level education, related work experience, and typically required on-the-job training. These requirements were determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and allows occupations to be grouped to create estimates of the education and training needs of the labor force as a whole and estimates of the outlook for occupations with various types of education and training needs. In some instances there are no clear guidelines regarding the education or training required for a given occupation. Multiple paths for entry are not captured by this report, instead the classification system captures the typical path for entry into an occupation as determined by BLS economists. The information contained within this report can be used by students and jobseekers who are making career decisions; education and training program planners who develop specific occupational training programs; job placement specialists who help people find employment; counselors who assist individuals in choosing careers; managers who design, evaluate, and direct employment and training programs; policy decision makers who develop short- to long-range personnel policies; and employers who need information to help them plan the expansion or relocation of their businesses. Prior to using the employment projections in this publication, it is important to understand the methodology used and assumptions made in developing these projections, and note the limitations of the data. Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

6 Methodology Understanding the Numbers These are the general steps used to produce longterm employment projections in Hawaii: Industry employment is obtained from the Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and Current Employment Statistics (CES) programs. Average annual employment for each of the industries in the State of Hawaii was compiled from 1990 through 2014, the base year of the projection period. Industry employment projections were produced using the Long-Term Industry Projections software system. The system allows the analyst to choose from a variety of predefined, generally accepted projection models including shift-share, simple time-series extrapolation, and linear regression models. Some of the independent variables that may be used in the regression models were time, resident population, gross state product, total personal income, average visitor census, visitor occupancy rates, and the number of unemployed persons. After the initial projections were developed, they were reviewed for reasonableness. Adjustments to the projections were made based on current knowledge of the industries and the economy. Industry staffing patterns were obtained from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, using Standard Occupational Classification codes. The staffing patterns for the agricultural industries were calculated by using census data. Staffing patterns for the self-employed and unpaid family workers were obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational employment projections were produced using the MicroMatrix Occupational Projections System software. The system used the staffing patterns to transform industry projections into occupational projections. The staffing pattern divides each industry s employment into different occupations, forming a matrix. The system then applies national change factors developed by BLS to adjust the projected pattern of each industry to account for changes brought about by new technology and changing business practices. Next, the system applies the national ratios for self-employed and unpaid family workers to each occupation s base and projected year employment to get self-employed figures. These figures are then added to the appropriate occupation total to obtain occupational employment totals that include the self-employed. Job openings are divided into two categories: job openings due to growth and job openings due to replacement needs. Job openings due to growth are created by industry employment expansion. It is the difference between projected year employment and base year employment. For occupations where employment is projected to decline, a zero is used for openings due to growth, instead of posting a negative job opening. Job openings due to replacement needs reflect net replacement needs and estimates the number of workers leaving jobs that need to be replaced by other workers. Generally, this counts openings that occur when workers leave their jobs to work in another occupation, retire or permanently leave the job for other reasons, or die. The total job openings count is equal to the sum of job openings due to growth and job openings due to replacements. This number estimates the number of openings for workers entering an occupation for the first time. It also may be used to assess the number of workers who will need to receive training for a particular occupation. 2 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

7 Methodology Assumptions and Limitations The following conditions are assumed to prevail during the projection period: 1. The institutional framework of the national and local economy will not change radically. 2. Current social, technological, and scientific trends will continue, including values placed on work, education, income, and leisure. 3. No major event, such as widespread or long-lasting energy shortages or wars, will significantly alter the industrial structure of the economy or the rate of economic growth. 4. Changes in relative wages, technological changes, or other factors will not radically alter trends in the occupational pattern of the industries. The data in this report has the following limitations: 1. The employment outlook for the various industries and occupations are based solely on an assessment of their projected demand. The supply of workers was not presented since a viable method for determining it has yet to be developed. 2. The employment projections were based on past trends and do not take into account any economic developments that may have occurred after the projections were completed. Projections should be viewed as indicators of relative magnitude and probable direction rather than as predictions of absolute occupational demand. Therefore, it is more important to look at the growth rate and projected total openings rather than the projected employment estimate itself. 3. Cyclical, seasonal, and other factors, such as large plant openings or closings were considered only if the information was available. 4. Employment projections and the estimation of job openings were rounded to the nearest ten. Therefore, the data may not sum to the totals. 5. The net replacement rates used in developing job openings estimates did not count workers who changed jobs but remained in the same occupation. In addition, because the number of openings due to net replacements was limited to those created by older workers leaving the job permanently, it may have underestimated the openings for new entrants, especially in jobs where many people permanently leave at younger ages. 6. Adjustments were not made for persons who held two or more jobs in different establishments. In the OES survey, a worker was counted in each job held at different places of work. Furthermore, no distinction was made if a worker did several jobs within one company. That employee was counted in only one occupation - the one with the highest skill level. If the worker did several jobs at the same skill level, the person was reported in the occupation that he/she spent the most time doing. Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

8 Industry Employment Trends All Industries From 2014 to 2024, total job gains among all industries will push the job count up by 5.6 percent, rising from 696,390 to 735,180. Figure 1 Total Industry Employment, 2014 and 2024 Services-providing industries will continue to provide the major source of job growth, representing over 81 percent of the total number of jobs added. Advances in goods-producing industries will contribute 4,360 jobs or 11 percent of the statewide total. This increase will boost goods-producing jobs by 8.4 percent, outpacing growth in services providing jobs with 5.4 percent. Selfemployed and unpaid family workers will experience a modest gain of 2,950, jobs which equates to 4.6 percent. 63,990 66, , ,910 51,960 56, Projected 2024 Goods Producing Services Providing Self Employed & Unpaid Family Workers Figure 2 Employment Distribution by Major Industry Sector, 2014 Education & Health Services 19% Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Leisure & Hospitality 17% 16% Professional & Business Services Government Self Employed & Unpaid Family Workers 9% 11% 12% Construction Financial Activities Other Services 4% 4% 5% Manufacturing Information Natural Resources & Mining 2% 1% 1% Goods Producing Services Providing Self Emp & Unpaid Family Workers 4 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

9 Industry Employment Trends Trends by Major Industry Division As the youngest members of the baby boom generation turns 60 years old by the year 2024, the overall pace of industry job growth will slow down in the upcoming years. Ten out of the twelve major industries are projected to increase, with the largest numerical expansion in industries that employ the most workers, while the industries advancing by the fastest growth rate will vary. The smallest industry division, natural resources and mining is expected to lose workers with the loss of 390 positions. A drop in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting will be primarily responsible for the decrease. Among the major industries, construction will report the largest percentage gain of 14.3 percent or 4,520 jobs over the 10-year period. Even though this industry continues to make strides, the projected employment is still not expected to reach the pre-recession level. All sectors should enjoy advances with the ongoing construction of the rail transit project as well as the development of residential condominium units. Manufacturing, the third smallest industry will experience a gain of 230 positions, accounting for less than one percent of the total industry growth statewide. Almost three-fourths of the increase will be driven by food manufacturing. The increase of 6,110 jobs in trade, transportation, and utilities will rank second largest among all industries. Total growth at 5.2 percent will be slightly below the statewide average, tempered by this industry s large employment base. Almost 90 percent of the growth will be split between two sub-sectors, retail trade, and the transportation and warehousing sector. Both divisions will benefit largely from rising personal consumption expenditures. The information industry will retain a one percent share of the total employment throughout the 2014 to 2024 time period. Although gains in the motion picture and sound recording industries will help boost the job count, employment in both the publishing as well as the broadcasting industries will fall as consumers utilize various forms of digital content to access information. This will result in a nominal gain of 240 jobs. A modest increase of 3.7 percent or 1,000 positions is projected for the financial activities industry. Growth between the industry's two sub-sectors will be distributed fairly evenly. The real estate and rental and leasing division will expand by 550, while insurance carriers and related activities will help push the finance and insurance sector up by 460 jobs. Employment in the professional and business services industry will rise by 5,560 jobs, for an increase of 6.8 percent. More than 62 percent of the rise in employment will originate from administrative and support services and waste management and remediation services. Within this sub-sector, job advances in employment service and services to buildings and dwellings will drive employment upward. Job gains in education and health services, the state s largest industry division, will add the most number of jobs at 12,170, amounting to growth of 9.1. percent. With almost one-third of the total job increase, this will expand the industry s share of the workforce from 19 to 20 percent by Healthcare and social assistance will post strong demand, contributing the bulk of the total slots added within this major industry division. In addition to an aging population, compliance to the Affordable Health Care Act and advancing medical technology will boost the jobcount higher. The educational services industry is also anticipated to expand, but at a slower pace. Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

10 Industry Employment Trends Trends by Major Industry Division (continued) Advances in leisure and hospitality will be another major source of employment gains. Accommodation and food services, which constitutes the largest portion of the total employment in this industry, will contribute 84 percent of the 5,660 openings. Within this subsector, an increase in the population, along with a rise in personal income, will account for much of the expansion in food services and drinking places. Visitor arrivals will continue to add more workers to the accommodation job count, though growth opportunities will be tempered as inventory for visitor accommodations shows no signs of significant expansion. An anticipated increase of 960 workers will boost the other services industry division by 3.8 percent. More than half of the job opportunities created within this industry will be due to advances in personal and laundry services. Government, will experience a slight decline in employment with the contraction of 230 positions. Increased pressure to reduce the budget deficit at the federal government level will result in fewer federal government jobs. This will overshadow the gains in both state and local government, thus reducing the overall government job count. The forecast for the self-employed and unpaid family workers division is an increase of 2,950 jobs from 2014 to 2024, resulting in minimal growth of 4.6 percent. Employment within this division will hold steady with approximately nine percent of the workforce. Table 1 Employment Projec ons by Major Industry Division, State of Hawaii, Industry Division Employment Change Avg. Ann. Change Net Percent Total All Industries 696, ,180 38, % 0.6% Natural Resources & Mining 6,530 6, % -0.6% Construc on 31,560 36,090 4, % 1.4% Manufacturing 13,870 14, % 0.2% Trade, Transporta on, & U li es 117, ,580 6, % 0.5% Informa on 8,440 8, % 0.3% Financial Ac vi es 26,980 27,980 1, % 0.4% Professional & Business Services 82,030 87,590 5, % 0.7% Educa on & Health Services 133, ,430 12, % 0.9% Leisure & Hospitality 113, ,700 5, % 0.5% Other Services 25,040 26, % 0.4% Government 74,180 73, % -0.0% Self Employed & Unpaid Family Workers 63,990 66,950 2, % 0.5% 6 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

11 Industry Employment Trends Numerical Change in Detailed Wage and Salary Industries Two of the larger-sized industries will account for more than one-third of all jobs added statewide. Healthcare and social assistance will lead all industries as all subsectors contribute to the growth. Driven by visitor spending, accommodation and food services will generate 4,730 new jobs for the second largest gain. The construction industry will continue to rebound from the deep cuts experienced during the recession. Figure 3 State of Hawaii, Health Care & Social Assistance 9,010 Accommodation & Food Services Construction Retail Trade Admin & Support & Waste Mgmt & Remediation Svcs Educational Services 4,730 4,520 3,730 3,450 3,160 Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services Transportation & Warehousing 1,770 1,710 Other Services Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Wholesale Trade Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Finance & Insurance Management of Companies & Enterprises Information Manufacturing Mining Services Providing Goods Producing Utilities Government Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

12 Industry Employment Trends Percent Change in Detailed Wage and Salary Industries With the numerous job opportunities created by the construction industry and by the health care and social assistance industry, it is not surprising that these two sectors would top the list of the fastest growing industries. The construction industry is anticipated to rise by more than two and a half times the average for all industries. However, the pickup in jobs is not expected to bring the industry s job count back to pre-recession levels. Health care and social assistance will also experience sizable growth, largely impacted by the health service demands of an aging population. Figure 4 State of Hawaii, Construction Health Care & Social Assistance 14.3% 12.9% Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services Mining Admin & Support & Waste Mgmt & Remediation Svcs Transportation & Warehousing Retail Trade Educational Services Accommodation & Food Services Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Wholesale Trade Management of Companies & Enterprises Other Services Finance & Insurance Information Manufacturing 7.8% 7.3% 7.1% 7.0% 6.5% 5.4% 5.0% 4.7% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 3.8% 3.0% 2.8% 1.6% Services Providing Goods Producing Government Utilities -2.1% -0.3% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting -6.4% 8 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

13 NAICS Code Table 2. Long-Term Industry Projec ons, State of Hawaii, Employment Change Industry Title Net Percent Avg. Ann. Change Total All Industries 696, ,180 38, % 0.6% Goods Producing 51,960 56,320 4, % 0.8% Natural Resources and Mining 6,530 6, % -0.6% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hun ng 6,280 5, % -0.6% Crop Produc on 4,950 4, % -0.9% Animal Produc on % 0.7% Fishing, Hun ng and Trapping % -1.0% Support Ac vi es for Agriculture and Forestry % -0.2% Mining % 0.7% Mining (except Oil and Gas) % 0.7% Construc on 31,560 36,090 4, % 1.4% Construc on 31,560 36,090 4, % 1.4% Construc on of Buildings 9,670 11,000 1, % 1.4% Heavy and Civil Engineering Construc on 4,320 5,310 1, % 2.3% Specialty Trade Contractors 17,580 19,780 2, % 1.3% Manufacturing 13,870 14, % 0.2% Manufacturing 13,870 14, % 0.2% Food Manufacturing 6,590 6, % 0.3% Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing % 0.7% Tex le Product Mills % -0.6% Apparel Manufacturing % -0.8% Wood Product Manufacturing % 2.5% Paper Manufacturing % -0.4% Prin ng and Related Support Ac vi es % -1.3% Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing % -0.2% Chemical Manufacturing % -0.8% Plas cs and Rubber Products Manufacturing % 0.7% Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing % 0.7% Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing % 0.4% Machinery Manufacturing % -1.5% Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing % 0.8% Transporta on Equipment Manufacturing % 1.1% Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing % 0.7% Miscellaneous Manufacturing % -0.8% Services Providing 580, ,910 31, % 0.5% Trade, Transporta on, and U li es 117, ,580 6, % 0.5% Wholesale Trade 17,660 18, % 0.4% Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 6,240 6, % 0.4% Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods 9,590 9, % 0.3% Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 1,830 2, % 1.3% Retail Trade 69,720 73,450 3, % 0.5% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 6,660 7, % 0.8% Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 1,440 1, % 0.4% Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

14 NAICS Code Electronics and Appliance Stores 1,350 1, % -0.9% Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers 4,300 4, % 0.5% Food and Beverage Stores 14,210 14, % 0.4% Health and Personal Care Stores 5,550 5, % 0.5% Gasoline Sta ons 2,170 2, % -0.3% Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 11,370 12, % 0.7% Spor ng Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores 3,020 3, % 1.0% General Merchandise Stores 13,700 14,860 1, % 0.8% Miscellaneous Store Retailers 5,450 5, % -0.2% Nonstore Retailers % 1.9% Transporta on and Warehousing 26,280 28,000 1, % 0.7% Air Transporta on 8,550 9, % 0.6% Water Transporta on 1,760 1, % 0.7% Truck Transporta on 3,270 3, % 0.4% Transit and Ground Passenger Transporta on 2,680 2, % 0.7% Scenic and Sightseeing Transporta on 4,020 4, % 0.8% Support Ac vi es for Transporta on 4,060 4, % 1.0% Couriers and Messengers 1,370 1, % 0.0% Warehousing and Storage % -0.0% U li es 3,810 3, % -0.2% U li es 3,810 3, % -0.2% Informa on 8,440 8, % 0.3% Informa on 8,440 8, % 0.3% Publishing Industries (except Internet) 1,290 1, % -1.0% Mo on Picture and Sound Recording Industries 1,530 1, % 2.4% Broadcas ng (except Internet) 1, % -0.7% Telecommunica ons 3,900 3, % 0.1% Data Processing, Hos ng and Related Services % 0.1% Other Informa on Services % 1.5% Financial Ac vi es 26,980 27,980 1, % 0.4% Finance and Insurance 14,980 15, % 0.3% Credit Intermedia on and Related Ac vi es 7,240 7, % -0.2% Table 2. Long-Term Industry Projec ons, State of Hawaii, Employment Change Industry Title Net Percent Avg. Ann. Change Securi es, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Ac vi es 1,060 1, % 1.7% Insurance Carriers and Related Ac vi es 6,660 7, % 0.6% Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles % 1.9% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 12,000 12, % 0.5% Real Estate 7,570 8, % 0.6% Rental and Leasing Services 4,430 4, % 0.2% Professional and Business Services 82,030 87,590 5, % 0.7% Professional, Scien fic, and Technical Services 24,270 26,040 1, % 0.7% Professional, Scien fic, and Technical Services 24,270 26,040 1, % 0.7% Management of Companies and Enterprises 8,350 8, % 0.4% 10 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

15 NAICS Code Management of Companies and Enterprises 8,350 8, % 0.4% Administra ve & Support & Waste Mgmt & Remedia on Services 49,410 52,860 3, % 0.7% Administra ve and Support Services 47,430 50,780 3, % 0.7% Waste Management and Remedia on Service 1,980 2, % 0.5% Educa on and Health Services* 133, ,430 12, % 0.9% Educa onal Services 63,170 66,340 3, % 0.5% Educa onal Services 63,170 66,340 3, % 0.5% Health Care and Social Assistance 70,090 79,100 9, % 1.3% Ambulatory Health Care Services 26,250 30,550 4, % 1.6% Hospitals 20,150 21,540 1, % 0.7% Nursing and Residen al Care Facili es 7,960 10,000 2, % 2.6% Social Assistance 15,730 17,010 1, % 0.8% Leisure and Hospitality 113, ,700 5, % 0.5% Arts, Entertainment, and Recrea on 11,990 12, % 0.8% Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries 1,580 1, % 0.8% Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Ins tu on 2,860 3, % 1.0% Amusement, Gambling, and Recrea on Industries 7,550 8, % 0.7% Accommoda on and Food Services 101, ,780 4, % 0.5% Accommoda on, including Hotels and Motels 39,290 40,850 1, % 0.4% Food Services and Drinking Places 61,760 64,930 3, % 0.5% Other Services (except Government) 25,040 26, % 0.4% Other Services (except Government) 25,040 26, % 0.4% Repair and Maintenance 3,630 3, % 0.3% Personal and Laundry Services 8,220 8, % 0.7% Table 2. Long-Term Industry Projec ons, State of Hawaii, Employment Change Industry Title Net Percent Avg. Ann. Change Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organiza- ons 12,810 13, % 0.2% Private Households % 0.2% Government* 74,180 73, % -0.0% Government 74,180 73, % -0.0% Total Federal Government Employment 33,090 31,790-1, % -0.4% Federal Government, Excluding Post Office 30,830 29,710-1, % -0.4% Postal Service 2,260 2, % -0.8% State Government, Excluding Educa on and Hospitals 22,250 22, % 0.1% Local Government, Excluding Educa on and Hospitals 18,830 19, % 0.4% Total Self Employed and Unpaid Family Workers, All Jobs 63,990 66,950 2, % 0.5% Self Employed Workers 59,890 62,880 2, % 0.5% Unpaid Family Workers 4,110 4, % -0.1% *State Educa on and Hospitals are excluded from Government and included in Educa on and Health Services Note: Totals may not add due to rounding to the nearest ten. Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

16 Occupational Employment Trends Distribution of Occupations The chart below shows the breakout by the twelve major aggregated occupational groups in More than a quarter of all jobs will fall under service occupations, which encompasses a wide array of occupations. Although growth among each division will vary throughout the projection period, the occupational distribution and ranking may only differ slightly by the year No major changes are expected to occur. Figure 5 Percent Distribution of Employment by Aggregated Occupational Group, 2014 Service 27% Office & Administrative Support Management, Business, & Financial Education, Legal, Community Service, Arts & Media Sales & Related 13% 13% 11% 10% Transportation & Material Moving Construction & Extraction Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Computer, Engineering, & Science Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Production Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 2% 1% 12 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

17 Occupational Employment Trends Trends by Aggregated Major Occupational Divisions Between 2014 and 2024, all but one of the major occupational groups will experience some growth. An estimated 38,790 jobs will be created over the projected period. Management occupations, with an increase of 4.5 percent, will rise at a slower pace than the state s average of 5.6 percent. Over a quarter of the jobs added throughout the projection period will result from gains in general and operations managers, an occupation common to most businesses. Workers in this group, with average annual wages of $93,200, earn the most of all the occupational sectors. The overall increase in business and financial operations occupations will total 1,480 jobs or 5.4 percent. Accountants and auditors will provide the largest numerical gain of 430 new positions. Credit counselors will expand the fastest, advancing by 31.4 percent: however, this small sized occupation will add only 10 slots. Individuals interested in seeking employment within this occupational group will typically need a bachelor s degree for entry. From 2014 to 2024, computer and mathematical occupations will rise to 10,880, up by 1,000 jobs or 10.2 percent. Approximately 90 percent of the jobs added will originate from the computer occupations subsector. Demand will stem from the increasing need for cybersecurity, the conversion to electronic medical records, and the constant advances in mobile technology. All of the occupations within this group will require some postsecondary education. Total growth within the architecture and engineering occupational group will be slower than the statewide average. Engineers, who constitute almost two-thirds of the jobs, will report a modest expansion of 4.3 percent, driven by a boost in civil engineers. Although the employment of drafting, engineering technicians, and mapping technicians will shrink slightly, the need to replace workers will lead to job openings within this sub-sector. The annual compensation for this group remains well above the statewide average. Life, physical, and social science workers will account for one percent of the state s workforce and is forecasted to create only 420 jobs over the projected decade. Among the four subsectors, all occupations in three subsectors life scientists, physical scientists, and social scientists and related workers, require at least a bachelor s degree. Even in the remaining subsector of life, physical, and social science technicians, at least an associate s degree is necessary for employment. Within community and social service occupations, the larger workforce segment, which consists of counselors, social workers, and other community and social service specialists, will provide 95 percent of the newly created jobs for an advancement of 8.7 percent. The other subsector religious workers, will add 50 positions for a slower anticipated growth rate of 5.4 percent. Workers in this group earn wages only slightly higher than the statewide average, even though many are well-educated with at least a bachelor s degree or higher. Legal occupations, the smallest occupational group, will post minimal gains of 180 positions, up by 3.8 percent. Not surprisingly, lawyers together with paralegals and legal assistants will account for more than four out of five projected new jobs. Wages in this group are third highest compared to the other groups, with almost every occupation earning more than the average for all wage and salary workers. Employment growth of 6.2 percent in education, training, and library occupations will rank slightly high- Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

18 Occupational Employment Trends Trends by Aggregated Major Occupational Divisions (continued) er than the statewide average. Teachers at all levels - postsecondary teachers; preschool, primary, secondary, and special education school teachers; and other teachers and instructors will provide a large chunk of the increase with a combined gain of 2,420 positions or 83 percent of the newly created jobs. Persons employed within this group tend to have higher education requirements, particularly for postsecondary teachers, in which case a doctoral or professional degree is often preferred. Total employment in arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations will rise by 5.1 percent from 2014 to 2024, slightly below the average for all occupations. More than half of the new jobs will be classified as entertainers and performers or sports and related workers. Short-term to moderate-term on-the job training is provided for some of the positions. Opportunities for individuals with varying education and wage levels will exist. Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations will jump upward by 11.0 percent, driven by health diagnosing and treating practitioners. Registered nurses alone are projected to add 1,460 jobs, significantly more than any other healthcare occupation. Health technologists and technicians, up by 9.8 percent, will also supply another 970 jobs, boosted by pharmacy technicians and emergency medical technicians and paramedics. In addition to the growing healthcare needs of the population, the Affordable Care Act could increase access to healthcare for many more individuals. Wages for those employed in this group at $90,560 will rank second highest in the state. By 2024, employment in healthcare support occupations will climb to 21,110 jobs. With an increase of 16.0 percent, this represents the fastest growth of any major occupational group. Strong demand for nursing assistants and home health aides will provide 61 percent of the expanding workforce. Annual take home pay for workers in this group at $32,800, falls well short of the statewide earnings for all occupations. Increasing concerns over security and public safety will prompt the increase in protective service occupations. The workforce will expand by 3.7 percent with the addition of approximately 840 jobs. Security guards, the largest occupation within this group, are projected to produce 54 percent of the total new jobs added. The educational requirement for the majority of protective service workers is a high school diploma or equivalent. Only three occupations fish and game wardens which requires a bachelor's degree, and first line supervisors of fire fighting and firefighters necessitate postsecondary education. The second largest occupational group, food preparation and serving related occupations, will generate 4,010 positions during the projection period, topping gains among all major divisions. Two occupations, combined food preparation and serving workers, and restaurant cooks, will account for more than half of the growth in jobs. However, when accounting for openings due to replacements, waiters and waitresses will provide the most total openings for this group. Since a high school diploma is not required for many of these positions, these jobs are typically considered entry level. Thus, this group will have more than six and a half times as many job openings due to the need to replace workers versus those generated through growth. Annual wages for this major group averaged the lowest. Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations are anticipated to advance by 5.5 per- 14 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

19 Occupational Employment Trends Trends by Aggregated Major Occupational Divisions (continued) cent, with the pickup of 2,490 jobs. The aggregated gains of the three largest occupations maids and housekeeping cleaners, janitors and cleaners, and landscaping and groundskeeping workers will supply 92 percent of the advances for the group as a whole. Average earnings at $31,870 are below the state s annual total of $47,740. About 40 percent of the growth in personal care and service occupations will be triggered by an upsurge in personal care aides. The need to care for an aging population will continue to drive this occupation upward, resulting in a 20.3 percent hike in employment of personal aides. Wages for those employed in these jobs ranked second lowest among all occupational sectors. Sales and related occupations will continue to keep its share of the workforce steady at around 10 percent. Employment will expand by 3,630, with almost two-thirds originating from the largest occupation - retail salespersons. Despite the slower than average growth rate of 5.3 percent, the total number of job openings posted for this occupational group will be second highest. The majority of the employment opportunities will arise as workers change jobs or leave the labor force rather than through the creation of new openings. Although office and administrative support occupations will employ the most number of workers, this sector will rank lowest in terms of percentage growth compared to the other divisions. The continuing automation of operations will reduce the need for work performed by various positions, thereby slowing overall expansion opportunities within this group. However, job prospects due to the replacement of workers will still exist. Although nearly all of the jobs in this sector require no more than a high school diploma, employees need to undergo training of up to one year. One of the smaller-sized occupations, farming, fishing, and forestry occupations will post the only loss, reducing the overall job count by 280 slots. The majority of the job losses will occur in the agricultural subsector, though three of the four subsectors will lose workers. Average earnings for those employed in this occupational group will rank in the lower half compared to the other groups. Above average growth of 11.0 percent over the 10-year forecast period is estimated for construction and extraction occupations. The job count will climb by 3,970 jobs, posting the second larggest numerical gain among all occupational groups. Many of the construction occupations that experienced deep cuts during the last recession will continue to recover. All components of this group will benefit from the construction projects predicted for the upcoming years. Although most positions do not require education beyond a high school degree, many of the workers receive some type of training. Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations will expand by 5.9 percent from 2014 to About a third of the total gain in this occupational sector will stem from an uptick in general maintenance and repair workers. Most of the jobs require a high school diploma; however for workers employed in the electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers sector, the majority of the positions require some postsecondary education. Nominal growth is projected for production occupations. Openings created in the food processingworkers subsector will account for the majority of Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

20 Occupational Employment Trends Trends by Aggregated Major Occupational Divisions (Continued) the gains. Despite the relatively low average salary for this occupational division, those employed within three subsectors: metal workers and plastic workers; plant and system operators; and supervisors of production workers, have an opportunity to earn salaries above the state s average. Transportation and material moving occupations, up by 6.4 percent, will rise faster than the statewide average for all jobs. Motor vehicle operators and material moving workers, the two subsectors employing the most workers, will contribute 69 percent of the total numerical gain for the whole group. In terms of percentage increase, water transportation workers will lead all sectors. Although the salary of this group averages $43,730 annually, wages range from a low of $23,180 for parking lot attendants to a high of $108,200 paid to air traffic controllers. Table 3 Employment Projec ons by Major Occupa onal Group, State of Hawaii, Average Annual Openings Occupa onal Group Net Change Percent Change Ann. Avg. Change Due to Growth Due to Replacements Total May 2015 Mean Annual Wages Total, All Occupa ons 696, ,180 38, % 0.6% 4,300 16,640 20,950 $47,740 Management 61,610 64,370 2, % 0.4% 280 1,290 1,570 $93,200 Business & Financial Opera ons 27,520 28,990 1, % 0.5% $64,030 Computer & Mathema cal 9,880 10,880 1, % 1.0% $76,440 Architecture & Engineering 9,990 10, % 0.3% $77,920 Life, Physical, & Social Science 7,890 8, % 0.5% $66,940 Community & Social Service 11,700 12, % 0.8% $49,240 Legal 4,750 4, % 0.4% $81,520 Educa on, Training, & Library 46,820 49,740 2, % 0.6% ,250 $50,900 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 12,070 12, % 0.5% $51,510 Healthcare Prac oners & Technical 30,270 33,590 3, % 1.1% $90,560 Healthcare Support 18,190 21,110 2, % 1.6% $32,800 Protec ve Service 22,720 23, % 0.4% $44,150 Food Prepara on & Serving Related 77,680 81,690 4, % 0.5% 450 2,970 3,410 $28,690 Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 45,360 47,850 2, % 0.5% ,180 $33,870 Personal Care & Service 22,540 24,740 2, % 1.0% $28,730 Sales & Related 68,960 72,590 3, % 0.5% 380 2,090 2,480 $34,350 Office & Administra ve Support 92,690 93, % 0.1% 290 1,870 2,160 $37,660 Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 5,220 4, % -0.5% ** $32,260 Construc on & Extrac on 36,170 40,130 3, % 1.1% $61,930 Installa on, Maintenance, & Repair 25,440 26,960 1, % 0.6% $52,270 Produc on 16,580 16, % 0.2% $37,510 Transporta on & Material Moving 42,330 45,050 2, % 0.6% 280 1,100 1,380 $43, Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

21 Occupational Employment Trends Numeric Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Twenty one of the 22 major occupational groups will add jobs from 2014 to The food preparation and serving related sector is projected to gain the most workers, driven largely by two subsectors, food and beverage serving workers and also cooks and food preparation workers. Construction and extraction occupations will follow with an increase of 3,970 jobs. Occupations expanding by the largest amount include: construction laborers and carpenters. Only farming, fishing, and forestry occupations will experience cutbacks due mainly to a drop in agricultural workers. Figure 6 State of Hawaii, Food Preparation & Serving Related Construction & Extraction Sales & Related Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Education, Training, & Library Healthcare Support Management Transportation & Material Moving Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Personal Care & Service 4,010 3,970 3,630 3,320 2,920 2,910 2,750 2,720 2,490 2,200 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Business & Financial Operations 1,510 1,480 Computer & Mathematical Community & Social Service Protective Service Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Office & Administrative Support Life, Physical, & Social Science Production Architecture & Engineering Legal Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 1, Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,

22 Occupational Employment Trends Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Two out of the top three occupational groups advancing the fastest will relate to the health field. Healthcare support occupations, with a projected expansion rate of 16.0 percent, will post the highest growth rate. Although all subsectors will experience above average growth, this group will benefit largely from a rise in nursing assistants and home health aides. Both the construction and extraction occupations, and the healthcare practitioners and technical division will rise by 11.0 percent. Figure 7 State of Hawaii, Healthcare Support 16.0% Construction & Extraction Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Computer & Mathematical Personal Care & Service Community & Social Service 11.0% 11.0% 10.2% 9.8% 8.4% Transportation & Material Moving Education, Training, & Library Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Business & Financial Operations Life, Physical, & Social Science Sales & Related Food Preparation & Serving Related Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Management Legal Protective Service Architecture & Engineering Production Office & Administrative Support 6.4% 6.2% 5.9% 5.5% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 3.8% 3.7% 2.8% 1.8% 0.6% Farming, Fishing, & Forestry -5.3% 18 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, State of Hawaii,