Courtesy of Benjamin Brooks, Whitney Raas, and Lonn Waters. Used with permission. Image removed due to copyright reasons. Resizing for Effect

Transcription

1 Courtesy of Benjamin Brooks, Whitney Raas, and Lonn Waters. Used with permission. Image removed due to copyright reasons. Resizing for Effect Presented by Benjamin M Brooks Whitney Raas Lonn Waters 1

2 US Grand Strategy - Very Selective Engagement Secure American Vital Interests Deter Strategic Competitors Develop and Reinforce Alliance Cooperation Encourage Regional Partnerships Humanitarian Missions 9 December

3 Threats to US Security Images removed due to copyright reasons. Chinese Forces as of 2005 Navy -67 Submarines -24 Destroyers -273 Other Attack Vessels Air Force -120 bombers fighters 9 Decem ber

4 Worldwide Threats China Terrorism North Korea Middle East WMD Proliferation 9 December

5 US Army - Lean and Lethal 1 Major Theater War 8 Division Equivalents (~275,000) 1 Small Regional Contingency (Korea) 2 Division Equivalent (~70,000) Humanitarian and Peacekeeping Missions 1 Division Equivalent (~35,000) 9 December

6 Results of Resizing Cuts Current End Strength Army Active Duty 82, , ,812 Army Reserve 26, , ,150 Army Guard 70, , ,000 9 December

7 Image removed due to copyright reasons. ARMY Cuts and Savings per Year Active Duty (13 Brigades, 1 Corp Headquarters) ~ $10B Reserve (8 Brigades) ~ $800M National Guard (2 Divisions) ~ $800M 12 Guard Field Artillery Brigades ~ $1.2 Future Combat System $3B MILCON Savings ~$280M 9 December

8 Army Restructuring 82 nd, 101 st, 10 Mountain (reduced by 3 brigades each and reconsolidated into light and airborne brigade teams with organic heavy lift CH-47s) Cut I Corp Headquarters Reassign subordinate units to V Corp Cut 3 rd Infantry Division (Fort Stewart) 9 December

9 6 Month Response Time Identify Threat Determine Response Spin-up Units (Train and Equip) Backstop for deployed units 9 December

10 Image removed due to copyright reasons. Army Modernization Move to Brigade Combat Teams instead of Divisions Accelerate Stryker Acquisition and Deployment (Approp Title 2033) $975M per year, per Unit Cost $3.2M Increase RDTE and Initial Procurement for Communications Upgrades and Sensors (Approp Title 2035) $1B per year redirected from FCS 9 December

11 Army Procurement Refit and Upgrade Abrams and Bradleys $700M (Approp Title 2033) Buy Patriot PAC-3 for deployment in Japan and Taiwan (65 per year at 4.5M per) $300M (Approp Title 2032) Image removed due to copyright reasons. 9 December

12 Overseas Army Basing Europe Halve force Rotate 6 BCTs ~$76M/year savings Iraq 25,000 permanent troops ~$2550M/year cost Korea Land Partnership Plan ,000 permanent troops -- no $ change 9 December

13 Army Base Realignment in Korea Korea - Land Partnership Plan (LPP) Close Outdated Facilities Concentrate Troops at Camp Humphreys and Osan Airfield Mitigate Land Tensions with South Koreans (esp. around Seoul) Reduced Costs of Base Maintenance and Travel Remove forward-deployed units from DPRK artillery Range Koreans pay for 85% Net Cost ~ $ December

14 Future Army Budgets F2007 FYDP Army Total Restructured Army Budget December

15 Effective Cuts on 2007 Budget 2007 FYDP Cuts/ Savings 2007 Final Proc RDT&E O&S MilCon Other Total December

16 Air Superiority Images removed due to copyright reasons. 9 December

17 Image removed due to copyright reasons. Strategy Effects on the Air Force Non-intervention policy Short-range air force Undisputed US control of the air No pressing need for extensive expenditures on advanced air capabilities Heavier, smaller Army Large, but fewer, transport aircraft 9 December

18 AF O&S and Military Construction Reduce Active and Reserve forces by 10% Reduce Air National Guard by 20% Suspend 100% of pilot bonus Total Savings of $22.7B over five years 9 December

19 RDT&E Reduce RDT&E for JSF by $200M/year Fund Space-Based Radar at $100M/year Total Savings of $3.73B over five years 9 December

20 Procurement: Airlift Image removed due to copyright reasons. Cancel scheduled buy of 13 C-17s in 2007 (167/180) Reduce C-130J purchases (81/111) Push back C-5 RERP procurement (10/50) Reduce number of CV-22s (10/15) Total Savings of $10.9B over five years 9 December

21 Procurement: F-22F Prior Years FY07 FY08 FY08 FY10 FY11 Total Original Schedule Adjusted Schedule No need for the F-22 No hostile country can challenge US fighter planes SLEP of F-15s reduces need to procure new planes 9 December

22 Procurement: Joint Strike Fighter Original Schedule Adjusted Schedule Prior Years 0 0 FY FY Delay in procurement offset by SLEP F-15, previous F-22 buys 0 FY FY10 30 FY Total Total Savings in procurement of $37B over five years 9 December

23 Total Air Force Savings by Program Millions of Dollars (FY05) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Fiscal Year SBR CV-22 C-5 C-130J C-17 JSF F-22 Milcon O&S 9 December

24 Total AF Savings by Budget Authority Savings in Millions (FY05) MilCon O&S RDT&E Procurement 0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Fiscal Year 9 December

25 Missile Defense Fund RDT&E at $1 B per year Total Savings of $47.6B over five years Background image removed due to copyright reasons. 9 December

26 Sea Power Background image removed due to copyright reasons. 9 December

27 Methodology Decided how VSE would affect USN Defined the threat China posed Looked for savings only in the difference between projected budget and resized force Saved by cutting ships and their crews Redefined force projection 9 December

28 VSE Effects on US Navy and Marines Naval Forces Should be Resized Force projection limited to areas of high threat and/or interest only Keep Marines and Amphibious Ships as is Resizing of Army suggests need for ground forces Resizing of Airlift suggests need for high amounts of Sealift 9 December

29 Sizing up the Chinese Navy Large Fleet ~280 ships Strengths ~ 60 Submarines ~ 90 Missile Ships Weaknesses Our ships are much more advanced They have very little to no Naval Air Power Our Fleet will be able to deter them because of the force multipliers obtained by our technology and Naval Air 9 December

30 Force Reductions Effective FY2007 Carriers Approp 1453N, 1804N Decommission USS JFK, Kitty Hawk, and Enterprise Savings in Millions of FY05$ Mil Pers O&M Total December

31 Force Reductions Effective FY2007 Submarines Approp 1453N, 1804N Resized number of LA Class from 51 to 38 Resized number of Ohio Class SSBNs from 14 to 9 Savings in Millions of FY05$ Mil Pers O&M Total December

32 Force Reductions Effective FY2007 Destroyers Approp 1453N, 1804N Resized number of Arleigh Burke Class from 55 to 45 Decommissioned all 5 Spruance Class Savings in Millions of FY05$ Mil Pers O&M Total December

33 Force Reductions Effective FY2007 Frigates Approp 1453N, 1804N Resized number of Frigates form 25 to 20 Savings in Millions of FY05$ Mil Pers O&M Total December

34 Force Reductions Effective FY2007 Marines Approp 1105N, 1106N Reduced 3000 enlisted Marines across the service Savings in Millions of FY05$ Mil Pers O&M Total December

35 Procurement Changes Submarines Approp 1611N Virginia Class Total Original Reduced December

36 Procurement Changes Littoral Combat Ship(LCS) Approp 1611N LCS Total Original Reduced December

37 Procurement Changes DDX Approp 1611N DDX Total Original Reduced December

38 Procurement Changes Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Approp 1506N JSF Total Original Reduced December

39 Total Savings In Millions of FY05$ O&S Proc Total December

40 Redefining Force Projection All bases will remain Carriers will work off of a resized Fast Response Plan Carrier deployments will be limited in the Atlantic, and focused on the Mediterranean and Pacific More attack submarines will be deployed off the Taiwanese East Coast 9 December

41 9 December 2004 Total Total DoD DoD Savings Savings Total Iraq Basing Defense Wide Navy AF Army FY07 FY11 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08 FY07 41

42 Conclusions Resizing the military was easy. We don t understand why it hasn t been done yet. Seriously. 9 December

43 Acknowledgements We would like to thank: Prof. Cindy Williams All Military Fellows 9 December

44 References: Assistant Secretary of the Army for Financial Management and Comptroller - ASA (FM&C) - Current Year's Army Budget Materials. Available at: Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Long-Term Implications of Current Defense Plans: Detailed Update for Fiscal Year 2005 (September 2004), Figures 3-20, 3-24, Available at: 9 December

45 Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Options for Changing the Army s Overseas Basing. May Available at: Cote, Owen. Buying...From the Sea : A Defense Budget for a Maritime Strategy. In Holding the Line: U.S. Defense Alternatives for the Early 21st Century, Cambridge, Mass. and London: MIT Press, Department of the Air Force. Fiscal Year 2005 Budget Estimates: Research, Development, Test & Evaluation (RDT&E) Vol. 2 (February 2004). Available at: 9 December

46 GlobalSecurity.org: U.S. Army. Available at: Mikos, Lt. Col. Mike. Interview with author (Lonn Waters). Office of the Secretary of Defense. Budget Materials (DOD Comptrollers Procurement Programs P-1). Available at: Quinlivan, James. Flexible Ground Forces. In Holding the Line: U.S. Defense Alternatives for the Early 21st Century, 228. Cambridge, Mass. and London: MIT Press, December