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1 E m p l o y m e n t P r o j e c t i o n s for I n d u s t r i e s and O c c u p a t i o n s S T A T E O F H A W A I I July 2018

2 State of Hawaii David Y. Ige, Governor Department of Labor and Industrial Relations Leonard Hoshijo, Director Lois Iyomasa, Deputy Director Research and Statistics Office Phyllis Dayao, Chief Labor Market Research Section Jeri Arucan, Research Statistician Supervisor Melonie Ogata, Research Statistician 830 Punchbowl Street, Room 304 Honolulu, HI phone: (808) For more detailed projections data, visit the HIWI website: This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.

3 Table of Contents Introduction...1 Methodology...2 Industry Employment Trends...4 Long-Term Industry Projections to Occupational Employment Trends...11 Long-Term Occupational Projections to Appendix A: Education and Training Classification System Definitions...47 Appendix B: Industry Classification Code Definitions Appendix C: Occupational Classification Code Definitions List of Figures Figure 1. Total Industry Employment, Figure 2. Employment Distribution by Major Industry Division, Figure 3. Employment and Growth by Major Industry Division, Figure 4. Projected Numeric and Percent Change in Industry Employment, Figure 5. Long-Term Industry Projections, State of Hawaii, Figure 6. Employment Distribution by Aggregated Occupational Group, Figure 7. Occupational Employment and Growth, Figure 8. Employment Growth by Major Occupational Group, Figure 9. Total Projected Job Openings by Major Occupational Group,

4 Figure 10. Fastest Growing Occupations, Figure 11. Occupations with Largest Numerical Growth, Figure 12. Occupations with the Most Job Openings, Figure 13. Largest Declining Occupations, Figure 14. Job Openings, Work Experience, and Job Training Requirements by Education Level, Figure 15. Long-Term Occupational Projections, State of Hawaii,

5 Introduction Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations, is produced biennially and provides long-term industry and occupational projections for the State of Hawaii. It uses actual 2016 employment as the base year and projects out to The first section of this report looks at employment projections by industry. Several charts and tables illustrate what is expected to happen at the industry level in Hawaii over the decade. A written analysis points out the trends at the major industry division and detailed industry level. Industries are classified by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The second section of this report focuses on employment projections by occupation. There are tables and graphs that illustrate what is anticipated to happen over the ten-year projected period. A written analysis covers the major occupational groups and detailed occupations. Occupations are classified under Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes. Annual average job openings data are also included in this report. Job openings are due to change, transfers, or exits. The openings due to transfers and exits are considered separations. on-the-job training. These requirements were determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and captures the typical path for entry into an occupation. This year, the BLS introduced a new methodology to calculate job openings due to separations. More information on this is included in the Methodology section. The information contained within this report can be used by students and jobseekers who are making career decisions; education and training program planners who develop specific occupational training programs; job placement specialists who help people find employment; counselors who assist individuals in choosing careers; managers who design, evaluate, and direct employment and training programs; policy decision makers who develop short- to long-range personnel policies; and employers who need information to help them plan the expansion or relocation of their businesses. Prior to using the employment projections in this publication, it is important to understand the methodology used and assumptions made in developing these projections, and note the limitations of the data. Additionally, this report includes education and training level requirements for each occupation, assigning categories for entrylevel education, related work experience, and Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii 1

6 Methodology Industry employment is obtained from the Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and Current Employment Statistics (CES) programs. Average annual employment was compiled from 1990 through The 2012 Census of Agriculture, conducted every five years, was used to estimate farming employment. Industry employment projections were produced using the Long-Term Industry Projections software system. The system allows the analyst to choose from a variety of predefined, generally accepted projection models including shift-share, simple timeseries extrapolation, and linear regression models. Some of the independent variables that may be used in the regression models were CPI, resident population, gross state product, total personal income, average visitor census, visitor occupancy rates, and the number of unemployed persons. After the initial projections were developed, they were reviewed for reasonableness. Adjustments to the projections were made based on current knowledge of the industries and the economy. Staffing patterns were obtained from the 2016 Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, using the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes. The pattern was used to divide each industry s employment into different occupations, forming a matrix. Occupational employment projections were produced using the Occupational Projections System software. The system applied occupational change factors developed by BLS to adjust the projected pattern of each industry to account for changes due to new technology and business practices. Using national self-employment staffing patterns provided by BLS, the system generated employment estimates and projections for the self-employed. The new separations methodology developed by BLS can capture a more accurate picture of the workforce and offers the ability to differentiate between workers who are leaving the labor force entirely and those who are changing jobs and leaving an occupation. There are three types of job openings: 1. Job openings due to change are created by employment expansion. It is the difference between projected year employment and base year employment divided by the number of years in the projection period. 2. Job openings due to transfers occur when someone moves from one type of occupation to another type such as for a promotion or career change. 3. Job openings due to exits appear when someone retires or dies. The total job openings are the sum of job openings due to change, transfers, and exits. What s the difference between the old replacement methodology and the new separation methodology? The old way reflected primar- 2 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii

7 ily people who left their job due to retirement or death. The new methodology accounts for different types of job changes such as changing careers, being promoted into management or completing a retraining program. Therefore, the openings are not comparable from this year to the last. More information on this issue is available online at: Assumptions: 1. The institutional framework of the national and local economy will not change radically. 2. Current social, technological, and scientific trends will continue, including values placed on work, education, income, and leisure. 3. No major event, such as widespread or long-lasting energy shortages or wars, will significantly alter the industrial structure of the economy or the rate of economic growth. 4. Changes in relative wages, technological changes, or other factors will not radically alter trends in the occupational pattern of the industries. 2. The employment projections were based on past trends and do not take into account any economic developments that may have occurred after the projections were completed. Projections should be viewed as indicators of relative magnitude and probable direction rather than as predictions of absolute occupational demand. Therefore, it is more important to look at the growth rate and projected total openings rather than the projected employment itself. 3. Cyclical, seasonal, and other factors, such as large plant openings or closings were considered only if the information was available. 4. Adjustments were not made for persons who held two or more jobs in different establishments. In the OES survey, a worker was counted in each job held at different places of work. Furthermore, no distinction was made if a worker did several jobs within one company. That employee was counted in only one occupation - the one with the highest skill level. If the worker did several jobs at the same skill level, the person was reported in the occupation that he/she spent the most time doing. Data limitations: 1. The employment outlook for the various industries and occupations are based solely on an assessment of their projected demand. The supply of workers was not presented. Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii 3

8 Industry Employment Trends Statewide employment is projected to increase by 45,540 jobs or 6.4 percent from 710,410 in 2016 to 755,950 in Hawaii s total industry employment is categorized into three broad groups: goodsproducing; services-providing; and self employed. Since the state has a service-based economy, almost nine out of ten new jobs are projected to originate from servicesproviding industries, resulting in the addition of 40,150 new jobs or 6.8 percent growth. Goods-producing industries will experience the smallest gain of 2,530 jobs which equates to a modest advance of 4.4 percent In comparison, advances in the selfemployed sector will contribute 2,860 jobs, an increase of 5.0 percent. Figure 1 TOTAL INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT, ,560 60, , ,300 57,700 60, Projected 2026 Self Employed Services- Providing Goods- Producing Figure 2 EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY MAJOR INDUSTRY DIVISION, Education & Health Services Trade, Transportation, Utilities Leisure & Hospitality Professional & Business Services Government Self Employed Construction Financial Activities Other Services Manufacturing Information Natural Resources & Mining 2.0% 1.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 5.3% 5.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 8.1% 8.0% 11.7% 11.6% 10.5% 10.0% 19.3% 20.4% 16.9% 16.6% 16.6% 16.9% 2016 Percent Distribution 2026 Percent Distribution 4 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii

9 Trends by Major Industry Division More than half of the state s employment will be distributed among three major industries education and health services; trade, transportation, and utilities, and leisure and hospitality. By 2026, education and health services, the largest industry sector will account for more 20 percent of all jobs. Next largest, the share of jobs within the trade, transportation, and utilities industry, and the leisure and hospitality division will total 17 percent each throughout the projection period. No major shifts will occur in the remainder of the industries With the continuing retirement of the baby boom generation, the overall pace of industry job growth points to modest advances in the upcoming years. Nine out of the twelve major industries are projected to increase, with the largest numerical expansion in industries that employ the most workers, while the industries advancing by the fastest growth rate will vary. Job gains in education and health services will lead all divisions with the highest percentage and largest numerical growth. Employment in this industry will surge ahead by 16,710 jobs or 12.2 percent. With more than onethird of the state s total job increase, this will expand the industry s share of the workforce from 19 to 20 percent by Healthcare and social assistance will post strong demand, contributing the bulk of the total slots added within this major industry division. In addition to an aging population, advancing medical technology will boost the job count higher. Educational services is also anticipated to expand, but at a slower pace. Figure 3 EMPLOYMENT AND GROWTH BY MAJOR INDUSTRY DIVISION, Employment Change ( ) Annual Percent Industry Number Percent Change Total, All Industries 710, ,950 45, % 0.6% Education and Health Services 137, ,950 16, % 1.2% Trade, Transportation, Utilities 119, ,240 5, % 0.4% Leisure and Hospitality 118, ,620 9, % 0.8% Professional and Business Services 83,410 87,640 4, % 0.5% Government 74,370 75,620 1, % 0.2% Self Employed 57,560 60,420 2, % 0.5% Construction 37,410 40,230 2, % 0.7% Financial Activities 27,780 28,890 1, % 0.4% Other Services 25,670 27,780 2, % 0.8% Manufacturing 14,060 14, % 0.0% Information 8,760 8, % -0.2% Natural Resources and Mining 6,240 5, % -0.4% Employment total may not add due to rounding to the nearest ten. Number and percent change is calculated before employment is rounded. Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii 5

10 The increase of 5,320 jobs in trade, transportation, and utilities will rank third largest among all industries. Total growth at 4.4 percent will fall below the statewide average, tempered by this industry s large employment base. More than 85 percent of the growth will be split between two subsectors, retail trade, and the transportation and warehousing sector. Both divisions will benefit largely from rising personal consumption expenditures. Advances in leisure and hospitality will be another major source of employment gains. Accommodation and food services, which constitutes the largest portion of the total employment in this industry, will contribute 87 percent of the 9,600 total openings generated. Within this subsector, an increase in the population, along with a rise in personal income, will account for much of the expansion in food services and drinking places. Visitor arrivals will continue to add more workers to the accommodation job count, though growth opportunities will be tempered as the inventory for visitor accommodations shows no signs of significant expansion. Employment in the professional and business services industry will rise by 4,230 jobs, for an increase of 5.1 percent. About half of the rise in employment will originate from administrative and support services and waste management and remediation services. Within this sub-sector, job advances in employment service and services to buildings and dwellings will drive employment upward. Government will experience a slight gain of 1,250 positions. All levels of government will boost payrolls upward. The forecast for self-employed workers is an increase of 2,860 jobs from 2016 to 2026, resulting in minimal growth of 5.0 percent Among the major industries, construction will report the fourth largest percentage gain of 7.6 percent or 2,830 jobs over the 10-year period. All sectors should enjoy advances with the ongoing construction of the rail transit project as well as the development of residential condominium units. A modest increase of 4.0 percent or 1,120 positions is projected for the financial activities industry. Both subsectors will increase at varying rates. The real estate and rental and leasing division will provide most of the growth with an expansion rate of 6.1 percent or 740 positions. Advancing by 2.4 percent, increased activity within insurance carriers and related activities will help push the finance and insurance sector up by 370 jobs. An anticipated increase of 2,110 workers will boost the other services industry division by 8.2 percent. Although repair and maintenance services will spike upward by 12.1 percent, more than three-quarters of the job opportunities will be due to advances in both personal and laundry services and also religious, grantmaking, civic, professional, and similar organizations. Manufacturing, the third smallest industry will incur a slight decline of 50 positions. Losses in printing and related support activities, food manufacturing, and apparel manufacturing, will overshadow gains in beverage and tobacco product manufacturing. The information industry will retain a one percent share of the total employment 6 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii

11 throughout the 2016 to 2026 time period. Although gains in the motion picture and sound recording industries will produce more jobs, employment in three industry groups telecommunications; publishing industries; and broadcasting will fall as consumers utilize various forms of digital content. This will result in 190 fewer jobs. The smallest industry division, natural resources and mining is expected to lose workers with the loss of 240 positions. A drop in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector will be primarily responsible for the decrease. Trends by Detailed Industry Two of the larger-sized industries will account for 47 percent of all jobs added statewide. Healthcare and social assistance will lead all industries with the addition of 12,840 positions, fueled by robust demand in ambulatory health care services. This industry sector will also grow at the fastest pace with 17.5 percent. Driven by visitor spending, Figure 4 PROJECTED NUMERIC & PERCENT CHANGE IN INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT, Numeric Change Percent Change Health Care & Social Assistance 12, % Accommodation & Food Services 8, % Educational Services Construction Transportation & Warehousing Admin. & Suppt. & Waste Mgmt. & Remed. Svcs Other Services Retail Trade Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services Government Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Wholesale Trade Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises Finance & Insurance Utilities 3,870 2,830 2,830 2,160 2,110 1,750 1,480 1,250 1, % 7.6% 10.2% 4.3% 8.2% 2.5% 6.1% 1.7% 9.9% 6.1% 3.8% 6.8% 2.4% 2.0% Mining % Manufacturing Information Agric., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting % -2.2% -3.8% Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii 7

12 accommodation and food services will generate 8,420 new jobs for the second largest gain, resulting from a hefty boost in food services and drinking places. With the numerous job opportunities created by the health care and social assistance industry, it is not surprising that this sector would post the highest growth rate. This industry will be largely impacted by the health service demands of an aging population, and is anticipated to rise by more than two and one-half times the overall average growth for the state or 17.5 percent. Another major contributor to the state s economy, tourism will stimulate the rise in employment projected for the transportation and warehousing industry, which is slated to expand at a rate of 10.2 percent. Figure 5 LONG-TERM INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS, STATE OF HAWAII, NAICS Code Employment Change ( ) Annual Percent Industry Number Percent Change Total All Industries 710, ,950 45, % 0.6% Goods Producing 57,700 60,240 2, % 0.4% Natural Resources and Mining 6,240 5, % -0.4% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 6,000 5, % -0.4% Crop Production 4,610 4, % -0.7% Animal Production % 0.5% Fishing, Hunting and Trapping % 0.6% Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry % 0.4% Mining % -0.7% Construction 37,410 40,230 2, % 0.7% Construction of Buildings 11,310 12, % 0.7% Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 4,690 5, % 0.9% Specialty Trade Contractors 21,410 22,960 1, % 0.7% Manufacturing 14,060 14, % 0.0% Food Manufacturing 6,650 6, % -0.1% Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 970 1, % 1.5% Textile Product Mills % 0.1% Apparel Manufacturing % -1.8% Wood Product Manufacturing % 0.2% Paper Manufacturing % 0.5% Printing and Related Support Activities % -1.8% Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing % 0.4% Chemical Manufacturing % -0.6% Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing % -0.1% Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing % -0.3% Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing % 0.4% Machinery Manufacturing % -0.5% Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing % -0.2% Transportation Equipment Manufacturing % 0.9% Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing % 0.0% Miscellaneous Manufacturing % -0.1% 8 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii

13 LONG-TERM INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS, STATE OF HAWAII, NAICS Code Employment Change ( ) Annual Percent Industry Number Percent Change Services Providing 595, ,300 40, % 0.7% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 119, ,240 5, % 0.4% Wholesale Trade 17,790 18, % 0.4% Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 6,100 6, % 0.4% Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods 9,890 10, % 0.3% Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 1,810 1, % 0.9% Retail Trade 70,520 72,270 1, % 0.2% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 6,920 7, % 0.7% Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 1,550 1, % 0.6% Electronics and Appliance Stores 1,260 1, % -1.3% Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers 4,280 4, % 0.4% Food and Beverage Stores 14,930 15, % 0.3% Health and Personal Care Stores 5,510 5, % 0.7% Gasoline Stations 2,190 2, % 0.6% Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 11,020 10, % -0.1% Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores 2,690 2, % -0.5% General Merchandise Stores 14,480 14, % 0.3% Miscellaneous Store Retailers 5,250 5, % -0.2% Nonstore Retailers % 1.2% Transportation and Warehousing 27,830 30,660 2, % 1.0% Air Transportation 9,010 10,060 1, % 1.1% Water Transportation 1,730 1, % 0.6% Truck Transportation 3,370 3, % 0.4% Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation 2,680 2, % 0.9% Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation 4,230 4, % 1.1% Support Activities for Transportation 4,610 5, % 1.1% Couriers and Messengers 1,590 1, % 1.3% Utilities 3,770 3, % 0.2% Information 8,760 8, % -0.2% Publishing Industries (except Internet) 1,240 1, % -1.0% Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries 1,950 2, % 0.9% Broadcasting (except Internet) % -1.2% Telecommunications 4,040 3, % -0.5% Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services % 0.4% Other Information Services % 2.0% Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii 9

14 LONG-TERM INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS, STATE OF HAWAII, NAICS Code Employment Change ( ) Annual Percent Industry Number Percent Change Financial Activities 27,780 28,890 1, % 0.4% Finance and Insurance 15,480 15, % 0.2% Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 7,270 7, % -0.1% Securities, Commodity Contracts, Other Financial Investments 1,080 1, % 1.0% Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 7,100 7, % 0.4% Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles % 0.3% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 12,300 13, % 0.6% Real Estate 7,830 8, % 0.7% Rental and Leasing Services 4,450 4, % 0.4% Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (ex. Copyrighted Works) % 1.1% Professional and Business Services 83,410 87,640 4, % 0.5% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 24,350 25,830 1, % 0.6% Management of Companies and Enterprises 8,710 9, % 0.7% Administrative & Support & Waste Mgmt & Remediation Svcs. 50,360 52,520 2, % 0.4% Administrative and Support Services 48,290 50,120 1, % 0.4% Waste Management and Remediation Service 2,070 2, % 1.5% Education and Health Services* 137, ,950 16, % 1.2% Educational Services 63,960 67,840 3, % 0.6% Health Care and Social Assistance 73,270 86,110 12, % 1.6% Ambulatory Health Care Services 27,800 35,430 7, % 2.5% Hospitals 20,710 21, % 0.4% Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 8,440 10,030 1, % 1.7% Social Assistance 16,320 18,990 2, % 1.5% Leisure and Hospitality 118, ,620 9, % 0.8% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 11,990 13,180 1, % 0.9% Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries 1,630 1, % 0.4% Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution 2,990 3, % 1.1% Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 7,370 8, % 1.0% Accommodation and Food Services 106, ,440 8, % 0.8% Accommodation, including Hotels and Motels 40,220 42,780 2, % 0.6% Food Services and Drinking Places 65,810 71,660 5, % 0.9% Other Services (except Government) 25,670 27,780 2, % 0.8% Repair and Maintenance 3,860 4, % 1.2% Personal and Laundry Services 8,490 9, % 1.1% Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, Similar Organizations 12,960 13, % 0.5% Private Households % 0.3% Government* 74,370 75,620 1, % 0.2% Federal Government, Total 33,190 33, % 0.1% Federal Government, excluding Postal Service 30,890 31, % 0.1% Postal Service 2,300 2, % -0.7% State Government, excluding Education and Hospitals 22,220 22, % 0.1% Local Government, excluding Education and Hospitals 18,960 19, % 0.4% Total Self Employed 57,560 60,420 2, % 0.5% *State Education and Hospitals are excluded from Government and included in Education and Health Services Note: Totals may not add due to rounding to the nearest ten. Number and percent change is calculated before employment is rounded. 10 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii

15 Occupational Employment Trends Statewide employment is projected to advance by 6.4 percent from 2016 to 755,950 in 2026, creating 45,540 new jobs. On an annual basis, this 0.6 percent increase equals 4,550 new jobs resulting from change. About 45,840 job openings are expected to arise due to transfers and another 36,080 due to exits. The total number of annual job openings is 86,480. Between 2016 and 2026, the distribution of employment for 12 aggregated major occupational groups will not undergo any major changes (Figure 6). In 2016, nearly 27 percent of all jobs fell under service occupations, which encompasses a wide array of occupations including jobs providing healthcare assistance, protective service, food preparation, cleaning, and personal care service. In 2026, service occupations are expected to comprise nearly 28 percent of total employment. Figure 6 EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY AGGREGATED OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, Service Office & Administrative Support Management, Business, & Financial Education, Legal, Comm. Svc, Arts & Media Sales & Related Occupations Transportation & Material Moving Construction & Extraction Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Compuer, Engineering, & Science Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Production Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 26.9% 27.8% 13.3% 12.4% 12.1% 12.1% 10.7% 10.8% 9.5% 9.1% 6.3% 6.4% 6.0% 6.0% 4.6% 4.9% 4.0% 2016 Percent Distribution 4.0% 2026 Percent Distribution 3.7% 3.7% 2.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.5% Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii 11

16 Trends by Major Occupational Group Twenty out of 22 major occupational groups will experience positive growth between 2016 and 2026 (Figures 7 and 15). An estimated 45,540 jobs will be created over the projected period. Although office and administrative support occupations will employ the greatest number of workers, this sector will succumb to job losses of 0.5 percent. The continuing automation of operations will reduce the need for this type of work. However, job prospects due to the replacement of workers who transfer or exit will generate 10,410 openings annually. Although nearly all positions in this sector require no more than a high school diploma, most workers will need to undergo some form of on-the-job training. The second largest occupational group, food preparation and serving occupations, will generate 6,950 positions during the projection period, topping gains among all major groups. Two of the larger-sized occupations, combined food preparation and serving workers, and waiters and waitresses, will produce almost half of the job growth. Since no work experience or formal educational credential is required for many of these positions, jobs in this field are typically considered entry level. The leader with 15,340 total job openings, of which more than 95 percent will result from job transfers and exits versus those generated through growth. Not surprisingly, the annual median wages of $27,330 for this group rank near the bottom of the pack. Sales and related occupational employment will expand by 1,440, with about half originating from combined gains for retail salespersons and their supervisors. Despite the modest growth rate of 2.2 percent for this major group, the 9,540 total number of job openings posted will rank third highest. Numerous employment opportunities will arise as workers change jobs or leave the labor force rather than through the creation of new openings. Management occupations, with an increase of 5.7 percent, will rise at a slower pace than the state s average of 6.4 percent. About 30 percent of the jobs added throughout the projection period will result from gains in general and operations managers, an occupation common to most businesses. In general, workers seeking employment in this group should have work experience. Median wages average $92,600 annually, topping all occupational sectors. With the addition of 3,420 jobs, the employment growth rate of 7.2 percent in education, training, and library occupations will surpass the statewide average. Teachers at all levels postsecondary teachers; preschool, primary, secondary, and special education school teachers; and other teachers and instructors will provide a large chunk of the increase with a combined gain of 2,730 positions or 80 percent of the newly created jobs. Persons employed within this group need higher education, particularly for postsecondary teaching positions, in which case a doctoral or professional degree is often preferred. 12 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii

17 Figure 7 OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT AND GROWTH, Employment Change Annual Average Openings 2017 Median Occupational Group # % change trnsfr exit total Wage Total, All Occupations 710, ,950 45, % 4,550 45,840 36,080 86,480 $41,650 Office & Administrative Support 94,200 93, % -40 5,640 4,810 10,410 $37,800 Food Preparation & Serving 82,640 89,590 6, % 700 8,070 6,580 15,340 $27,330 Sales & Related 67,300 68,740 1, % 140 5,240 4,150 9,540 $27,670 Management 56,470 59,690 3, % 320 2,590 1,880 4,790 $92,600 Education, Training, & Library 47,170 50,590 3, % 340 2,040 2,200 4,580 $48,320 Transportation & Material Moving 44,630 48,210 3, % 360 3,160 2,320 5,840 $36,740 Construction & Extraction 42,680 45,660 2, % 300 2,810 1,530 4,640 $64,300 Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 41,460 44,860 3, % 340 2,720 2,660 5,720 $34,800 Healthcare Practitioners & Tech 32,650 36,880 4, % ,210 $84,710 Business & Financial Operations 29,480 31,420 1, % 190 1, ,880 $63,760 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 26,180 27,930 1, % 180 1, ,710 $53,540 Personal Care & Service 24,650 27,940 3, % 330 1,970 1,940 4,240 $26,690 Protective Service 21,790 22, % 70 1,290 1,150 2,510 $42,470 Healthcare Support 20,630 25,360 4, % 470 1,220 1,310 3,010 $33,350 Production 17,050 17, % 10 1, ,010 $36,490 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 12,490 13, % ,290 $47,860 Community & Social Service 11,250 12,760 1, % ,430 $50,720 Architecture & Engineering 10,500 11, % $79,900 Computer & Mathematical 10,030 10, % $77,450 Life, Physical, & Social Science 7,840 8, % $65,440 Legal 4,990 5, % $78,920 Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 4,340 4, % $35,870 Percent change is calculated based on raw data, before it is rounded to the nearest ten. Total may not add due to rounding. Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii 13

18 Transportation and material moving occupations, up by 8.0 percent, will rise faster than the statewide average for all jobs. Motor vehicle operators and material moving workers, the two subsectors employing the most workers, will contribute 63 percent of the total numerical gain for the group. In terms of percentage increase, air transportation workers will lead all sectors with 14.6 percent growth. Although the salary of this group averages $36,740 annually, wages range from a low of $22,870 for parking attendants to a high of $91,730 paid to commercial pilots. Above average growth of 7.0 percent is predicted for construction and extraction occupations. The job count will climb by 2,980 jobs, raising the employment level to 45,660 in All components of this group will benefit from the construction projects predicted for the upcoming years. Although most positions do not require education beyond a high school degree or work experience, many of the workers receive some type of training. Take home pay for this group was $64,300 in 2017, which ranks seventh highest among the 22 occupational groups. Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations are anticipated to advance by 8.2 percent with the pickup of 3,400 jobs. The aggregated gains of the three largest occupations maids and housekeeping cleaners; janitors and cleaners; and landscaping and groundskeeping workers will supply 89 percent of this group s advances. Average median earnings at $34,800 fall below the state s annual total of $41,650. Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations will jump upward by 13.0 percent producing a gain of 4,230 jobs, driven primarily by health diagnosing and treating practitioners. Within this subsector, registered nurses alone are projected to add 1,530 jobs, significantly more than any other healthcare occupation. Another subsector, health technologists and technicians, up by 11.8 percent, will supply an additional 1,240 jobs, boosted by pharmacy technicians; licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses; and dental hygienists. The growing healthcare needs of an aging population should create numerous job openings. Wages for those employed in this group at $84,710 will rank second highest in the state. The overall increase in business and financial operations occupations will total 1,940 jobs for an advancement of 6.6 percent. Accountants and auditors will provide the largest numerical gain of 450 new positions. With growth of 20.4 percent, market research analysts and marketing specialists will expand the fastest, adding a total of 210 slots. Individuals interested in seeking employment within this occupational group will typically need a bachelor s degree for entry. Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations will expand by 6.7 percent from 2016 to About 38 percent of the total gain in this occupational sector will stem from an uptick in general maintenance and repair workers. Most of the jobs require a high school diploma; however, for workers employed in the electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, 14 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii

19 installers, and repairers sector may need to obtain some postsecondary education. With an increase of 3,290 jobs, personal care and service occupations will forge ahead with the second fastest rate of 13.4 percent. About 46 percent of the growth in this group will be triggered by an upsurge in personal care aides. The need to care for an aging population will continue to drive this occupation upward, resulting in an upward spike of 35.8 percent. Except for two subsectors (tour and travel guides, and funeral service workers) the remaining sectors will enjoy above average employment advances. Take-home pay for workers classified within this group is $26,690, the lowest among all occupational groups. Increasing concerns over security and public safety will prompt the increase in protective service occupations. The workforce will expand by 3.4 percent with the addition of approximately 740 jobs. Security guards and police and sheriff s patrol officers, the two largest occupations within this group, are projected to generate 70 percent of the total new jobs added. The educational requirement for most protective service workers is a high school diploma or equivalent. Only two occupations fish and game wardens, and supervisors of firefighting and prevention workers necessitate postsecondary education. By 2026, employment in healthcare support occupations will climb to 25,360 jobs. With an increase of 22.9 percent, this represents the fastest growth of any major occupational group. Strong demand for home health aides, medical assistants, and nursing assistants will provide 74 percent of the expanding workforce. Unfortunately, annual take home pay for workers in this group is $33,350, which falls short of the statewide earnings for all occupations. Nominal growth of three-tenths of one percent is projected for production occupations. Varying employment needs among all the subsectors will result in a minimal gain of 50 positions. Despite the below average wage of $36,490 for this major group, those employed within three subsectors: metal workers and plastic workers; plant and system operators; and supervisors of production workers, have an opportunity to earn salaries above the state s average. Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations will rise by 4.3 percent from 2016 to 2026, below the average for all occupations. About 63 percent of the new jobs will be classified as entertainers and performers or sports and related workers. Short-term to long-term on-the-job training is needed for some positions. Job opportunities for individuals with varying educational and wage levels will exist. Growth within both subsectors of community and social service occupations will exceed the statewide average of 6.4 percent. The larger workforce segment, which consists of counselors, social workers, and other social service specialists, will provide 93 percent of the newly created jobs for an advancement of 13.7 percent, while the other sub-sector religious workers, will Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii 15

20 add 110 positions for an anticipated growth rate of 10.7 percent. Even though many of the positions require a bachelor s degree or higher, the average annual salary of workers in this group at $50,720, rank near the middle of all occupational groups. Job advances averaging 5.9 percent within the architecture and engineering occupational group will fall below the statewide average. However, engineers, who constitute almost two-thirds of the total jobs, will report an expansion rate of 6.6 percent, driven by a boost in civil engineers. Annual earnings for this group, at $79,900, are well above the statewide average. However, total job openings produced by this sector will only generate approximately one percent of the statewide total. Figure 8 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, Numeric Change Percent Change Food Preparation & Serving Related 6, % Healthcare Support 4, % Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 4, % Transportation & Material Moving 3, % Education, Training, & Library 3, % Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 3, % Personal Care & Service 3, % Management 3, % Construction & Extraction 2, % Business & Financial Operations 1, % Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 1, % Community & Social Service 1, % Sales & Related Computer & Mathematical Protective Service Architecture & Engineering Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Life, Physical, & Social Science Legal Production Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Office & Administrative Support , % -0.5% 2.2% 9.4% 3.4% 5.9% 4.3% 6.8% 5.9% 0.3% 16 Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii

21 From 2016 to 2026, computer and mathematical occupations will rise to 10,980, up by 940 jobs or 9.4 percent. Almost 90 percent of the jobs added will originate from the computer occupations sub-sector. However, the much smaller subsector consisting of mathematical science occupations will forge ahead by 23.7 percent. All the occupations within this group will require some type of postsecondary education. Life, physical, and social science workers is expected to create 530 jobs with 6.8 percent growth over the projected decade. Within this group, all occupations for three out of the four subsectors - life scientists; physical scientists; and social scientists and related workers - require at least a bachelor s degree and some require a master s or doctoral degree. Even in the remaining subsector of life, physical, and social science technicians, at least an associate degree and sometimes a bachelor s degree is necessary for employment. Legal occupations, the second smallest occupational group, will post a minimal gain of 300 positions, up by 5.9 percent. Not surprisingly, lawyers together with paralegals and legal assistants will supply four out of five projected new jobs. However, the 350 openings are the fewest of all the major occupational groups. The take-home pay of $78,920 for this group are fourth highest compared to the other groups, with every occupation earning more than the median average for all wage and salary workers. The smallest-sized occupational group, farming, fishing, and forestry occupations, will post a loss of 4.2 percent, reducing the overall job count by 180 slots to 4,150. All the job losses will occur in crop and nursery farming occupations. Average earnings for those employed in this occupational group will rank in the lower half compared to the other groups. What are the best performing major occupational groups? There are two ways to look at this, in terms of numeric change and percent growth (Figure 8). The food preparation and serving related sector is projected to gain the most workers, driven largely by two sub-sectors, food and beverage and serving workers, and cooks and food preparation workers. Healthcare support occupations, boosted by the need for home health aides will provide the next largest gain of 4,730 jobs. A projected expansion rate of 22.9 percent in healthcare support occupations will top all major groups. Although all subsectors will experience above average growth, this group will benefit significantly from a spike in home health aides. The personal care and service group and the community and social service group will follow, with both rising by 13.4 percent. Within personal care and service occupations, workers categorized under animal care and service workers, as well as other personal care and service workers, particularly personal care aides, will fuel the higher growth level. Advances in community and social service occupations will stem from a rise in counselors, social workers, and other social service specialists. Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii 17

22 In addition to growth, job openings also become available through occupational separations which includes employees transferring to different occupations and workers exiting the labor force (Figure 9). Openings created by economic expansion combined with replacement needs will be responsible for an estimated 86,480 openings per year during the projected period. Food preparation and serving related occupations will lead with 15,340 openings, over half of the jobs generated by the largest sub sector food and beverage serving workers. The office and administrative support division will follow with 10,410 slots. Although the employment level will decline from 2016 to 2026, job movement through turnover and retirement will produce a multitude of openings for various office and clerical positions. Figure 9 TOTAL PROJECTED JOB OPENINGS BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, Total Openings Openings due to Change Openings due to Separations Food Preparation & Serving 15, ,650 Office & Administrative Support 10, ,450 Sales & Related 9, ,390 Transportation & Material Moving 5, ,480 Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint. 5, ,380 Management 4, ,470 Construction & Extraction 4, ,340 Education, Training, & Library 4, ,240 Personal Care & Service 4, ,910 Healthcare Support 3, ,530 Business & Financial Operations 2, ,690 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 2, ,530 Protective Service 2, ,440 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 2, ,790 Production 2, ,000 Community & Social Service 1, ,290 Art, Desgn, Entertn, Sport, & Media 1, ,240 Architecture & Engineering Computer & Mathematical Life, Physical, & Social Science Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Legal Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii

23 Detailed Occupational Projections The growth rate of the 20 fastest expanding occupations are well above the average rate for all occupations which is 6.4 percent (Figure 10). As reflected by the increase in the healthcare occupational groups, more than half of the occupations relate to healthcare. These include: home health aides; nurse practitioners; personal care aides; phlebotomists; medical assistants; substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors; mental health counselors; healthcare social workers; medical secretaries; physical therapists; massage therapists; mental health and substance abuse social workers; other health technologists and technicians; and medical health services managers. Figure 10 FASTEST GROWING OCCUPATIONS, Percent Change Numeric Change Home Health Aides 43.9% 1,900 Nurse Practitioners 37.1% 120 Personal Care Aides 35.8% 1,520 Phlebotomists Software Developers, Applications 28.1% 32.6% Medical Assistants 27.5% 870 Substance Abuse & Behavrl Disorder Cnslrs Mental Health Counselors Nonfarm Animal Caretakers Operations Research Analysts Healthcare Social Workers Medical Secretaries Market Research Anlysts & Mktng Speclsts Physical Therapists Massage Therapists Mental Hlth & Substance Abuse Social Wkrs Bus Drivers, School or Special Client Health Technologists & Technicians, Other Medical & Health Services Managers Financial Managers Overall Percentage Growth for All Occupations 6.4% 25.1% 23.9% 23.5% 23.5% 21.2% 20.7% 20.4% 20.1% 19.6% 19.3% 18.6% 18.6% 18.0% 17.5% Employment Projections for Industries and Occupations State of Hawaii 19