The Future of Airpower
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- Beverley Joseph
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1 Centre for Military Studies The Future of Airpower Dr. Gary Schaub, Jr. Centre for Military Studies
2 Airpower: Increasing Effectiveness No Boots on the Ground Airpower as First Resort Enabled by Modern Airpower Immediacy Range Persistence Precision Safety Responsiveness Controllability 2
3 Overcoming Limits Location Accuracy GPS Precision Strike Laser-Guided GPS High Resolution Reconnaissance All-weather Persistent Surveillance Satellites, UAVs Networked Communications High Bandwidth Increased Situational Awareness
4 From Bombs per Target to Targets per Sortie B-17 sorties 9000 x 250 lb. Bombs 1 Target F-4 sorties 176 x 500 lb. Bombs 1 Target F-117 sortie 2 x 2000 lb. Bombs 2 Targets B-2 sortie 16 x 2000 lb. Bombs 16 Targets
5 Increasing Use of PGMs Desert Storm: 8% Allied Force: 30% Enduring Freedom: 60% Iraqi Freedom: 68% Odyssey Dawn/Unified Protector: 100% 250 Aircraft 6500 PGMs 5900 Targets Hit NATO Munitions Initiative led by Denmark 5
6 Collateral Damage Allied Force Days 829 Aircraft 38,004 Sorties 28,236 Weapons 500 Yugoslav civilians killed, 900 Injured Unified Protector 2011 During OUP concerns about civilian casualties were far too evident in the NATO official documents where the written Non-Combatant and Civilian Casualty Cut-Off Value were equal to zero. Official NATO reports clearly demonstrate the air campaign was conducted with an unprecedented attention in order to avoid any civilian casualties (CIVCAS). In essence, during any collateral damage estimate (CDE) and during any mission if there was any possibility of inflicting civilian casualties the mission would be unauthorized or postponed. 6
7 Coalition Air Campaigns Value Greater Capability Greater Legitimacy Shared Responsibility Shared Risk Shared Costs
8 Coalition Involvement: Aircraft #s United States Belgium Canada Denmark France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Turkey UK Qatar Sweden United Arab Emirates 8
9 Coalition Involvement: Aircraft Percentages 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jordan United Arab Emirates Sweden Qatar UK Turkey Spain Portugal Norway Netherlands Italy Greece Germany France Denmark Canada Belgium United States 9
10 Operation Odyssey Dawn
11 Paradox: Increasing Activity, Shrinking Air Forces Uniformed Air Force Personnel United Kingdom France Netherlands Norway Denmark Sweden
12 Paradox: Increasing Activity, Shrinking Air Forces 450 Fighter & Multi-Role Aircraft United Kingdom France Netherlands Norway Denmark Sweden
13 Paradox: Increasing Activity, Shrinking Air Forces 120 Medium Mobility Aircraft United Kingdom France Netherlands Norway Denmark Sweden
14 Paradox: Increasing Activity, Shrinking Air Forces 35 Airborne Tankers United Kingdom France Netherlands Norway Denmark Sweden
15 Paradox: Increasing Activity, Shrinking Air Forces 250 Flying Hours (Max) United Kingdom France Netherlands Norway Denmark Sweden
16 Fighter Replacement Decisions Europe Status Number Candidates Decision Date Belgium Competition 30+ F-35, JAS 39E, F/A-18, Typhoon 2018 Denmark Competition 30+ F-35, F/A-18, Typhoon 2015 Finland Study 40+ TBD Uncertain Greece Competition 100+ F-16 upgrade 2015 Italy Negotiation 90 F Netherlands Decision 37+ F Poland Study 40 TBD TBD Romania Order 12 F-16A 2014 Slovakia Review 12 JAS 39C Uncertain Turkey Review 100 F-35, F-16 upgrade 2015 UK Review 138 F Canada Review [Study] 65 F-35 [F/A-18, Typhoon, Rafael]
17 Denmark: Fighter Replacement 2010 Defence Agreement - Strategic Issues - Capability Issues - Industrial Issues - Financial Issues Process - 23 July: Bids Received - Aug Nov: Bids Assessed - Nov mid 2015: Evaluation - Mid-2015: Political Debate & Decision 17
18 Take Aways Western Airpower Increasingly Capable & Increasingly Called Upon Western Air Forces Have Shrunk to Permit Some Modernization Have Adapted to Expeditionary Operations Require Investments Aircraft Training & Education Personnel Future Coalition Operations Partnerships 18
19 Thank you 19
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