Offshoring Services. Martin Kenney UC Davis & Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy and Rafiq Dossani Stanford University

Transcription

1 Offshoring Services Martin Kenney UC Davis & Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy and Rafiq Dossani Stanford University

2 Let s Get Our Terms Right! Outsourcing = Moving work from inside a firm to an outside vendor Offshoring = Moving work from the U.S. to another nation Offshore captives or insourcing = Moving work to a subsidiary Offshore outsourcing = Moving work from inside a firm in the U.S. to another firm in another nation For example, Firm X contracts with IBM to provide IT support from its Indian subsidiary For example, Firm X contracts with the Indian firm TCS to provide contract programming from India

3 Today nearly every service is IT- enabled. If an activity does not require a physical presence is susceptible to offshoring

4 It is not just about software programming any more. It will affect the employment patterns in a wide variety of industries -- both IT professionals and non-it employees

5 Why Is It Important?

6 Services Are the Dominant Part of the U.S. Economy Source:

7 Destinations for Offshoring India is receiving the most employment Ireland -- 40,000 (services for Europe) Philippines -- 30,000 (December 2003) China --?, relatively small India ,000 (growing >50%) + 300,000 in software growing at 20% (Sept. 2004) Context: U.S. economy employees about 130 million

8 Business Process Employment in India by Year 600, , , , , , e e Source: NASSCOM-McKinsey

9 Who Is Doing It?

10 Firms Offshoring Services IBM

11 Agilent India Headcount As Reported in the Press, December 2001Through April 2006* R&D for wireless, OSS, and billing and device drivers System on a chip design center Financial services back office & software R&D 0 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Source: Authors compilation from various journals. *April 2006 is an estimate

12 Timeline for Oracle India Jan 2001 Started planning March 2001 Identified first project April 2001 Setup infrastructure May 2001 First project staffed and started June 2001 Project team from India visit US Aug employees, 3 projects Jan employees, delivery of one module from India May employees, all products with teams in India September > 3,000 employees in two locations projected 6,000

13 The Reasons It Is Possible

14 Technical Enabling Conditions and Business Drivers Technical Enabling Conditions Business Drivers A learning-by by-doing process in which there have been failures

15 The Technical Enabling Conditions Separation of information from physical media So they need no longer be done in close proximity to customers Global availability of low-cost telecom bandwidth and computing power Y2K increased penetration of standardized SW packages, e.g., SAP, Oracle, PeopleSoft available globally. Today, you can be certified anywhere. Increasing divisibility of services

16 Business Drivers Pressure to bring down costs Rivalry -- rivals have done it so must follow Business leaders such as Michael Dell, Carly Fiorina,, and Jack Welch Acceptance of reengineering and outsourcing various services Experience w/offshore software production in India

17 Key Benefits Capable labor available in large quantities in a wide number of categories China and India each graduate 3x the number of engineers we do Still high rates of unemployment for the college educated Savings can be great Labor costs are normally less than 25% of the U.S. But can be much less for certain skilled activities On a process 40% saving is possible (20% is usual) High levels of entrepreneurship

18 Wages

19 Costs Per Engineer Software engineering graduate in India earns $6,000 per year while the comparable salary in the U.S. is $40,000 (but productivity may be only 60%) 5 year Java EE experience, with CS/EE degree: US range $55,000-$80,000 $80,000 (plus benefits); Bangalore: $8,000 (incl. benefits) Though wages in India have been increasing rapidly recently!!

20 Wage Costs in Four Different Asian Markets Mumbai Manila Kuala Lumpur Shanghai Call Center $1.50 $1.47 $2.19 $2.50 Back Office $1.35 $1.73 $1.86 $2.03 Doc. Conversion $ $1.07 $1.47 $1.50

21 What Is Being Offshored?

22 Leading Industries Information technology and computing Telcos (Verizon, AT&T etc.) Equipment providers (HP, Dell, Cisco etc.) Software firms (Microsoft, Oracle, SAP etc.) Finance and insurance Retail (Safeway, TESCO, Federated etc.) Healthcare and benefits provision

23 The Areas of Service Offshoring Software programming More than 50 percent of the top 100 U.S. software firms now have an Indian subsidiary and nearly all of them outsource some work to Indian vendors Research and Development Business processes

24 Engineering R&D Adaptec, AOL, Cisco, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Oracle, Qualcomm, SAP, and Veritas have large and growing engineering centers in India GM Technical Centre - Bangalore persons and growing -- part of GM Global Engineering GE John F. Welch Technology Centre -- 1,600 and growing Designing next-generation Intel chips in Bangalore

25 A Job at Intel India CAD Engineer: Hardware Engineering is all about finding solutions. As a CAD (Computer Aided Design) Engineer with the Intel Hardware Engineering team, you'll work on teams designing, developing and implementing solutions. As part of Hardware Engineering at Intel, you'll have the opportunity to be involved from start to finish on the development of world-class innovations. Responsibilities As a CAD Engineer, you will be involved in developing new very large scale integration (VLSI) CAD tools and methodology solutions for design for testability (DFT) and test generation for high volume manufacturing of next generation microprocessor products. You will be responsible for development, deployment and maintenance of in-house fault simulation and test generation tools. This position will be based in Bangalore, India. Qualifications You must possess a Ph.D. or Master of Science degree in Electrical Engineering or Computer Engineering with five to ten years of related work experience. Additional qualifications include: Extensive knowledge of Digital Design and Design-for-test principles, digital circuit/fault simulation and automatic test pattern generation. Good working knowledge in developing CAD tools using C++ in a UNIX*/Linux* environment. Excellent experience in a related people management role would be an added advantage. Accessed April 9,

26 An Opportunity at Cisco India Title: Software Engineer Experience: 3-5 years experience with Unix and C. Experience with Linux definitely a plus. Experience with creating and running regression tests, writing test scripts, test harnesses with perl and C. Knowledge of performance measurement techniques and benchmarking Experience with one or more of the following protocols from a QA/ certification point of view: NFS, CIFS, SMTP, IMAP, POP, NDMP, LDAP, Radius, Kerberos, DHCP, DNS, FTP. Experience with certification and qualification of 3rd party applications Description: Technical, Industry, Business and Cross-Functional Knowledge. Partnership. Solve Problems & Make Decisions. Demonstrate Leadership. Establish Plans. Think Globally. Dedication to Customer Success. Innovation and Learning. Acknowledged technical expert on project. Education: Typically requires MSEE/CS combined with 5-7 years of related experience, or BSEE/CS combined with yrs related experience.

27 Back Office Processes Moved by One Large Firm Sales Admin Warranty Accounting Channel Replenishment Rebates Support Accounting Inventory Accounting Revenue Accounting Intracompany Accounting Treasury Accounting Employee /Travel Reimbursements Finance Processes Non-Finance Processes Fixed Assets Accounts Payable Customer Response Center Accounts Receivable Vendor data management Master Data Maintenance Support Contracts

28 Not Just for Cutting Cost, It Can Create New Income Medium-sized mortgage firm able to dramatically expand business drawing upon the capabilities and lower-cost structure of Indian sub-contractor Newspaper firm able to digitize previously paper and microfiche archive creating an easily marketable product

29 Can Support Entrepreneurship in the U.S. High-tech startups can reduce their burn rate by moving software development to India An increasing number of venture capital-financed firms are establishing Indian or Chinese operations very early in their life cycles, i.e., before they reach 100 employees

30 Problems

31 This Is Not Easy, There Are Challenges Within U.S. operations Employee morale -- training replacements Is the process as modular as you believe? Political issues -- local, state, national Moving the process Finding good advisors Finding high-quality executives in India or China Managing the migration Managing the foreign operation -- late night calls etc. If outsourcing, designing the contract to create a win-win situation

32 Conclusion

33 Reality Has been very rapid GE expanded from 12,000 to 20,000 ( ) Dell had no employees about 2 1/2 years ago, now over 3,000 (call center, software coding, back office) The number of service activities amenable to offshoring are incalculable and can be expanded Radiology at hospitals across the U.S. -- telemedicine Ph.D. statisticians (actuaries) General Electric Algorithm development for software products The firms are still learning The problems we hear about appear to be glitches rather than fundamental problems

34 The Cost and Benefits for the U.S. Benefits Lower cost services Purchases of U.S. products Greater efficiency Labor shortages in software overcome Costs Job loss? Downward pressure on wages? Disrupted career ladders? Tax losses? Expect Major Announcements after the Election

35 Questions Will this be a reprise of manufacturing? How fast? Many operations expanding at greater than 50% per year How many activities are not place dependent? For what is moveable, how much can be done in lower cost locations? If the middle of the pyramid relocates what happens to career paths in U.S.? What will be the new business model in the U.S.? What might be the impact on U.S. educational institutions?

36 Good News: What Is Not Moveable In-person services Activities that require face-to-face interaction with customers, suppliers, designers, or production facilities Activities where knowledge is derived from intensive, iterative interaction with the market or environment, e.g., clusters Activities that are geographically bound, e.g., Napa Valley

37 Can we make sure that this is not a zero-sum game, but rather a strong positive-sum sum game? If the U.S. middle-class feels it is losing out, then this will become very politicized

38 Thank You