0.86% 1.3 Congested Work Transit Share >0.3 % 0.30%

Transcription

1 18. Hickory A. Regional trends The greater Hickory region consists of portions of 4 counties (Catawba, Burke, Alexander, and ) northwest of the greater Charlotte region extending east and west along I 40. The MPO planning area is a sub-portion of this region consisting generally of Hickory proper, communities along I 40 east and west of Hickory, and communities north and south of Hickory, generally along US 321. The region was originally organized as an MPO based on the 1980 Census; its area was expanded in 2005 to include a much larger planning region and larger commuting shed. The Hickory MPO adopted the Long Range Transportation 1 on September 28, Table II.B.18.1 summarizes regional trends for this greater (enlarged) planning area, which is considerably larger than the Hickory Urbanized Area (94,000 persons). The 2000 Census greatly enlarged the urbanized area boundary, based on strong but scattered growth throughout the core of the 4-county region. The present Plan consists of a consolidation of needs from the thoroughfare plans of the component communities 2. The region is presently updating its LRP to accommodate the larger region and model its traffic with a new 4-county model. The regional commuting shed is larger still, four counties across, extending from Catawba County on the east to McDowell and Burke counties on the west. The greatest inter-county flows are between Burke (Morganton) and Catawba (Hickory), and Caldwell (Lenoir) and Catawba Counties, each close to 10,000 commuters. (Iredell County, to the east, is oriented primarily south to Charlotte, although it also has significant secondary flows west to Hickory). Table II.B.18.1: Hickory Regional Trends Hickory MPO Data FHWA data Base Year Pct Ch Pct Ch Population 290, , Employment 145, , DVMT (Thousands) 3,931 5, Net Size 744 1, %Congested/ Miles 0.86% 1.3 Congested Work Transit Share >0.3 % 0.30% The population of the central county (Catawba) grew about 19 percent during the 1990 s, slightly slower than the state average (21 percent). In spite of slow-downs in the textile and manufacturing/furniture sectors, the region is increasingly seen as a retirement community and much of the recent growth has been on the edge of the urban core and near recreational amenities such as mountain foothills and recreational lakes. The LRP predicts continuation of these trends, with particularly strong growth in Alexander 1 Hickory MPO Region Long Range Transportation Plan, Council of Governments, Hickory NC, September 28, Hickory LRTP, page

2 County 3. However, these projections are based on very simple 3-point regression lines trended forward, and therefore are subject to considerable uncertainty. If for instance, the US textile and furniture manufacturing industry continues to lose share to overseas manufacturers (two likely possibilities), then the region s growth rate could be substantially slower. The recent announcement of a Google server farm site near Lenoir has brought additional optimism, albeit at a high price in local incentives, and it is unlikely that the Google deal could be repeated with other companies. The most likely forecast is for slower-than average traditional growth, overlaid by faster residential/recreational growth, together about 1 percent/year. B. Commuter characteristics No recent travel survey has been conducted in the greater Hickory region, so the most recent information available on commuters is from the 2000 Census 4. Table II.B.18.2 summarizes the characteristics of Catawba County resident commuters (workers age 16+). The population of the immediate Hickory area, 141,685, is about ½ of the greater MPO region, and the growth rate is also about ½ the region s overall growth rate. Table II.B.18.2: Catawba County Profile of Resident Commuters 1990 % 2000 % % change Population 118, , Households 45, , Vehicle 2, , Workers , , Drove Alone 52, , Carpooled 10, , Public Trans and Taxi Bike/walk 1, Motorcycle/other Work at home , Mean travel time Drove alone 20.3 Carpooled 22.3 Public Trans and Taxi 34.6 Bike/walk 11.7 Motorcycle/other 32.2 Work at home Working in Catawba Co 94,370 0-car hh 2,085 Bus or trolley Ibid, p US Census, 2000 Census of Transportation Planning Package, Catawba County, NC. 2

3 0-car hh 25 The region is increasingly reliant on private vehicles for commuting. Only 5.6 percent of Catawba county households have no vehicle, down from 6.1 percent in Almost 82 percent of commuters drive alone to work and another 14 percent use carpools; the drive-alone share has increased and carpooling has fallen over the last decade. Bike-walk shares have fallen 42 percent in just one decade, and now constitute just 1.2 percent of commuters. On the other hand, work-at-home has increased almost 50 percent, to 1.7 percent of workers. Just 0.3 percent of workers (210 persons) use public transportation or taxi. More than 5 times as many workers work at home as use public transit for work commuting. While commuting via transit has increased in aggregate terms, it has remained constant as a share of regional travel at 0.3 percent, so small that it has no impact on regional congestion. Average travel times for Catawba County residents have increased slightly to 20.7 minutes, primarily as a result of most growth occurring at the edges of the developed area. On the other hand, travel times for transit users are 67 percent longer, 32.2 minutes. This means that transit is not competitive as a travel mode and its share is not likely to increase. On balance, the emerging profile of Hickory commuters is one of strong preference for auto use, increasing use of solo driving, increased work-at-home, and a very small transit share. If the region s congestion is to be managed, those plans must focus on car use and highway capacity, not transit service. C. How much delay needs to be saved to hold congestion As noted above, the Hickory urbanized area has recently been expanded to include portions of surrounding counties and the Morganton area 30 miles west. However, most of the limited congestion in the region is in the immediate Hickory area, the portion within the original MPO boundary. Data for this part of the region are shown in Table II.B The immediate Hickory area is projected to grow about 34 percent over the next 25 years, to about 126,000 persons. Present congestion is quite limited, with an estimated TTI of just This means that the free flow average commuter time, 14.6 minutes, is increased 4 percent to 15.2 minutes by the presence of traffic. However, the TTI is projected to increase to about 1.09 by And adding the growth of the region, the total delay (the portion of the index after the decimal) is projected to more than double, from about 992 hours daily to about 2,552 hours daily. About ¾ of this increase will be caused by the increasing population itself, and about ¼ by the increased interaction of the additional vehicles. In other words, if the immediate Hickory region wanted to hold congestion at its current levels it would have to take actions that would save, in total, about 1,560 hours of delay daily, or about 1.4 minutes per commuter per day. This does not sound like a lot of delay, but added up over many commuters it can be substantial. At the regional average wage rate of $ 14.93, its value is about $ 5.8 million/year. Table II.B.18.3: Projected Increases in Commuting Delay, Hickory 5 Hartgen and Fields, op. cit. 3

4 Hickory UA (core area) Item Change Pct Ch Pop Commuters Congestion Index, TTI Mean Travel Time Free Flow Travel T Free Flow DVHT Delay DVHT Total DVHT Ave Hrs Del/yr This estimate may be low, since it does not include the travel time of out-of-region commuters coming into the area. These commuters of course increase the delay to others and incur some delay themselves. D. What do the TIP and the LRP say about Congestion? The Hickory TIP 6 contains a number of projects that have the potential to reduce congestion. The largest projects on the TIP are: Hickory Southern Loop, $68.5 m. Widening of US 321, $62.5 m. McDonald Parkway, $ 53.1 m. Newton-Conover Loop, $47.3 m. In total, the TIP contains about $ M in major projects. Appendix 3 lists the major Hickory-area projects that are likely to affect congestion. The LRP does not contain a description of the transportation goals for the region and does not indicate the relative importance of various goals or objectives. However, it does provide a list of regionally significant projects ; these are major facilities that are forecast to need expansion or improvement. The primary projects 7 are: I-40 through the region with some sections near or over capacity. US 321, the key north-south route serving the textile employment. In Hickory and Lenoir, some sections are already over capacity. The LRP recommends widening the section from US 70 to US 64/18 to 6 lanes. US 321-A. Widening to 4 lanes, from Falls Ave in Granite Falls to McClean Drive in Lenoir. US 70: A major east-west facility, predicted to be over capacity. US 64: By 2030, most of the road between Lenoir and Morganton will be near or over capacity. NC 18: part of above. 6 Hickory TIP, Hickory LTRP, p

5 Figure II.B.18.1 shows the proposed LRP projects in the Hickory plan. However, they are presently unfunded and are in the out-years of the long-range plan. Therefore, it seems more reasonable to identify those projects with a greater chance of coming to fruition. Reviewing the LRP, the largest projects are: 16 th St Extension, $ 19.8 m. Widening of Startown Road, $18.6 m. Clement Blvd Extension, $ 12.5 m. Widening of NC 10/16 in Newton, $11.6 m. Widening of Cloninger Road, $ 11.6 m. Appendix 3 summarizes the major congestion-reducing projects for the area. In total, they would add about 275 lane-miles to the regional network at a cost of $ M. Figure II.B.18.2 summarizes the locations of these major projects. Figure II.B.18.1: Hickory Thoroughfare Plan 5

6 Figure II.B.18.2: Projects Affecting Congestion, Hickory In addition the Plan identifies a number of projects on other facilities in each County, including improving exits on I-40, new connectors in Morgantown and other counties. It also specifically calls for limiting access to US 321 to Blowing Rock, to preserve capacity there. The Long Range Plan does not provide specific information on the congestion reduction impacts of these projects, but the tone of the discussion of individual projects is that present or future congestion relief is the underlying justification for many projects. For instance, the proposed widening of US 321 is justified as follows: Travel on US 321 is heavy, with 2003 traffic volumes ranging from 33,000 to 42,000. The traffic volume will almost double by the design year the level of service will deteriorate to LOS F.improve the existing facility (by) adding new capacity, improving the system s efficiency, transportation demand management, and transit service improvement 8. E. TIP and LRP Savings in Delay The potential savings in delay from the Hickory TIP and LRP is shown in Table II.B In total, the projects have the potential to reduce travel time in the region by 8 Ibid, p

7 about 5424 hours/day. This means that the projects, if built, could go a long way to reducing congestion in the region, since the projected increase in delay is only about 1560 hours/day. In other words, the region will be gaining about 1560 hours in travel time delay, but could save more than 5400 hours if it implements major congestionreducing projects. Table II.B.18.4: Potential Savings in Delay from the Hickory TIP and LRP TIP LRP Total Number of Projects Lane-Miles Added Total Cost, M$ $ $ $ Estimated commuter DVHT Saved The details of this potential savings are shown in Table II.B Most of the savings is in the form of widening of freeways and urban arterials, with lesser amounts in new freeways and arterials and rural arterial widenings. Table II.B.18.5: Potential Savings in Delay, DVHT, by Project Type Work Type TIP LRTP Grand Total 02-New Arterial New Exit/Ramp Frwy Widening Urb Art Widening Rural Art Widening Intersection Impr Bridge Minor Impr No widen Grand Total As with many other smaller regions of North Carolina, this analysis concludes that the present TIP and LRP, if implemented, have the potential to reduce regional congestion by more than it is predicted to grow from population and traffic increases. D. Recommendations Given the relatively slow growth of the region and this assessment of the TIP and LRP, the Hickory region stands a good chance of getting ahead of congestion. This will help sell the region to companies looking for less congested environments. However, the region needs to implement the major projects on schedule and develop other demandrelated strategies that can help. Capacity Provision and Management Develop a signal optimization program. The Hickory region is unique in NC in not having a signal optimization program on either its TIP or LRP. Traffic flow on major arterials in the region would be substantially assisted and smoothed by a signal timing initiative. Routes for immediate consideration should be US 321 and US 70. 7

8 Review major intersection performance. Most small regions have their greatest congestion not on freeways but on arterials at key business and retail-oriented intersections. Often, this congestion is caused by faulty signal timing in conjunction with insufficient left-turn capacity. The region should carefully review each major intersection in the area and identify which are at or nearing capacity for each movement, then develop a prioritized plan for dealing with that. Develop an incident management program. Although there is some incident management service in the area now, the increasing traffic volumes on I 40 can be a major threat to local commuting when that road breaks down due to incidents. Demand Reduction and Management Develop regional and cross-regional home-based ridesharing programs. The Hickory region has no formal ridesharing program. Two programs are needed: first, a program for long-distance commuters from within the region, particularly between Hickory and Lenoir and Hickory and Morganton, but also including Boone and Blowing Rock; second, a cross-regional program with the greater Charlotte region, to serve commuters who live in the Hickory region and cross-commute to the Charlotte region. Both of these should be organized from the home end, since employment in individual work sites is not large enough to form distant ridesharing matches. Initiate a flexible work hour program. Although the Hickory region is still not significantly congested, initial steps to organize a flexible work hour program and a work-at-home program with major employers can be useful in dispersing the spikes in traffic caused by rigid time schedules. These programs can also produce ancillary benefits such as reduced parking loads and faster travel times. Explore work-at-home programs. As the region grows, a higher share of commuting will be work-at-home. This is accelerated by the Google announcement and the growth of recreational/residential land uses. Programs to wire the region and possibly encourage work-at-home can pay benefits in several dimensions including commuting. Planning and Administration Continue with the development of the regional travel demand model. As the region s transportation planning improves, the revised and expanded travel demand model should be used to estimate the impact of each project on congestion reduction. Conduct risk assessment for population and employment forecasts. The Long Range plan is silent on the region s economic future, strangely ignoring problems in the textile and furniture industries that are the buttresses of the local economy. The recent announcement of Broyhill s Lenoir closure in the furniture manufacturing business, costing some 300 jobs, highlights the frailty of the local economy. If national trends continue, these two industries will continue to move out 8

9 of the US, weakening the local economy. On the other hand, the region is experiencing strong population growth in its suburban and rural fringes that may be driven by retirement and recreational opportunities. The region s projected growth is faster than the official State projections, and the fastest growing areas are outside the current MPO boundaries 9. Given this optimism, the possibility of a slower growth path, or (less likely) a faster growth path and their impact on travel and on project justification should be carefully assessed. Increase the priority of congestion-reducing projects. Each project in the Hickory TIP and LRP should be assessed for its congestion-reducing potential. This report provides a preliminary estimate of that impact, but a more refined estimate should be prepared using the traffic assignment methodology of the new travel demand model. Then, the MPOs project selection process should be modified to specifically give more weight to projects that reduce or relieve congestion, both present and future. Initiate a congestion monitoring program. The region needs to implement a program of monitoring congestion at key regional locations, including major intersections and arterials, including changes in travel time within the region. These should be reported regularly as a barometer of regional transportation performance. 9 Ibid, p

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