Business Cycles From Boom to Bust and Back Again

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1 Business Cycles From Boom to Bust and Back Again Dr. Dale S. Rogers Professor, Logistics & Supply Chain Management Interim Chair, Supply Chain Management Department Arizona State University Tuesday, May 23

2 Business Cycles From Boom to Bust and Back Again One constant in business is change. Prices, revenues, and markets go up and go down. These changes impact people around the world, and change how purchasing organizations must deal with suppliers and sourcing decisions. In this session Dr. Dale S. Rogers, will describe economic cycles that impact all of us and how to develop strategies to manage against disruptive fluctuations.

3 Setting the Stage Recession has given way to a new normal of: Low growth Rising Income inequality Political Dysfunction Social tension

4 GDP Billions GDP , , , , , , , , , ,

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8 Increased Stability Great Moderation 1. Shift in employment to less cyclical, service-based industries. Inventory and dura le goods production tend to be destabilizing. 2. Increased size of acyclical government sector. 3. Increased role of automatic (mainly fiscal) stabilizers 4. Reduced frequency and intensity of fiscal crises. 5. Some favorable fiscal (mainly tax) policies 6. Reduced volatility of monetary growth 7. Greater confidence in private economic agents, both induced by business cycle moderation itself and inducing behavior favorable to more stable economic growth. Source: Zarnowitz, Victor (1992). Business Cycles. University of Chicago Press.

9 GDP However, GDP is only a measure of finished goods and services in the last tier before the consumer. GDP first came into use in 1937 in a report to the US Congress in response to the Great Depression after Russian economist Simon Kuznets conceived the system of measurement. GDP is Keynesian Purchasing managers intuitively understand problems with GDP. Dr. John Hoagland

10 Purchasing Managers Index

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12 ISM Most Recent Results MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE April 2017 Index Series Index Apr Series Index Mar Percentage Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend* (Months) PMI Growing Slower 8 New Orders Growing Slower 8 Production Growing Faster 8 Employment Growing Slower 7 Supplier Deliveries Slowing Slower 12 Inventories Growing From Contracting Customers' Inventories Too Low Faster 7 Prices Increasing Slower 14 Backlog of Orders Growing Slower 3 New Export Orders Growing Faster 14 Imports Growing Faster 3 OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 95 Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 8 1

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14 Index Performance

15 U.S. Average Inventory to Sales Ratio

16 Great Recession

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19 US Real Estate Supply Chain

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22 Employment for the largest occupations in the United States, May 2016

23 Annual mean wages for the largest occupations in the United States, May 2016

24 Major occupational groups as a percentage of total U.S. employment, May 2016

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33 Logistics Managers Index LOGISTICS AT A GLANCE Index Mar/April Index Jan/Feb Index MoM Change Projected Direction Rate of Change LMI Growing Slowing Inventory Levels Growing Increasing Inventory Costs Growing Increasing Warehousing Capacity -2.4 Growing Slowing Warehousing Utilization -5.8 Growing Slowing Warehousing Prices Growing Slowing Transportation Capacity +4.2 Growing Increasing Transportation Utilization +0.3 Growing Increasing Transportation 70.5 prices Growing Slowing

34 THE LAST 3 READINGS Month Mar/April LMI 65.5 Average for previous 3 readings 64.8 High 66.0 Jan/Feb 66.0 Nov/Dec Oct Sep Low 54.9

35 LMI Inventories Inventory Levels September October Nov/Dec Jan/Feb Mar/April

36 Jan/Feb - Mar/April Index Change: Inventory Levels

37 Inventory Costs Inventory Costs September October Nov/Dec Jan/Feb Mar/April

38 Inventory Costs by Industry 0.60 Jan/Feb - Mar/April Index Change: Inventory Cost

39 Warehousing Capacity Warehousing Capacity September October Nov/Dec Jan/Feb Mar/April

40 Warehousing Capacity by Industry 0.40 Jan/Feb - Mar/April Index Change: Warehouse Capacity

41 Warehousing Utilization September October Nov/Dec Jan/Feb Mar/April

42 Jan/Feb - Mar/April Index Change: Warehousing Utilization

43 Warehousing Prices September October Nov/Dec Jan/Feb Mar/April

44 Jan/Feb - Mar/April Index Change: Warehousing Price

45 Transportation Capacity September October Nov/Dec Jan/Feb Mar/April

46 Jan/Feb - Mar/April Index Change: Transportation Capacity

47 Transportation Utilization September October Nov/Dec Jan/Feb Mar/April

48 0.30 Jan/Feb - Mar/April Index Change: Transportation Utilization

49 Transportation Prices September October Nov/Dec Jan/Feb Mar/April

50 Jan/Feb - Mar/April Index Change: Transportation Price

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52 End of presentation Extra slides follow

53 Sectoral Dynamics (Industrial Production)

54 Contribution of Sectoral Changes to GDP Growth Volatility

55 most frequent source of financing for postsecondary education

56 Recessions (Shaded Regions)

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58 Y O U R F E E D B A C K I S I M P O R T A N T Please take a few minutes to complete this brief survey. Survey link: or Scan the QR code on your smartphone.

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