ASEAN Economic Integration Forum 2017: 50 Years and Beyond: Forging and Inclusive ASEAN

Transcription

1 ASEAN Economic Integration Forum 2017: 50 Years and Beyond: Forging and Inclusive ASEAN Roundtable 4: Impact of Industrial Revolution 4.0 on ASEAN s Future United Nations Conference Centre, Bangkok September 2017 Eduardo Pedrosa Secretary General Pacific Economic Cooperation Council The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the PECC nor its members.

2 Current Context: 4 th Industrial Revolution

3 Economic Context Asia-Pacific Economic Growth

4 Trade as a driver of growth?

5 Source: UNCTAD World Investment Report (various years) Shifts in Global Value Chains? Is Onshoring Happening?

6 Source: PECC State of the Region Drivers of growth over the next 5-10 years

7 Where are ASEAN economies here?

8 A history of technological change: per capita income levels

9 Speed of Change Accelerating

10 Source: PECC State of the Region Survey 2017 Which technologies will have the biggest impact over the next 5 years?

11 Uncertainty on impact

12 Opportunities of the 4 th Industrial Revolution for ASEAN

13 Cross Border E-Commerce Source: Cross Border e Commerce, Empowering SMEs to Access Global Markets APEC Informal Senior Officials Meeting, Ms. Diane Wang, ABAC China

14 Opportunity for MSMEs to Compete in Global Market Source: Cross Border e Commerce, Empowering SMEs to Access Global Markets APEC Informal Senior Officials Meeting, Ms. Diane Wang, ABAC China

15 Opportunities for more inclusive growth 120 Account at a financial institution (% age 15+) VNM MMR KHM SGP MYS THA PHL IDN CAN HKG NZL AUS JPN USA Commercial bank branches (per 100,000 adults)

16 It s a Mobile World Many solutions likely to Come from this!

17 Leading Online-to-Offline (O2O) platform. Enables digital entrepreneurs to become the gateway for unbanked Agent network across 500+ cities in remote towns and rural areas of Indonesia enables customers to transact online Mixes traditional channels Allows online whilst still making payments through cash. Mobile Solutions

18 ASEAN: Large Increasingly Middle Class Region

19 Traffic: Lost Productivity Manila: productivity loss of at least P2.4 billion (U$$50) million a day, could more than double by 2030 Source:

20 Technological innovation: Solving Urban Problems Just a taxi booking service? OpenTraffic smart data platform provides free-of-cost GPS information for better analysis of travel speeds and journey times in Metro Manila and Cebu City identifying road incident blackspots and improving emergency response.

21 The Disruptor - who s getting disrupted?

22 Challenges of the 4 th Industrial Revolution for ASEAN

23 Data: The New Driving Force Source:

24 Who s Ready for the Data Economy?

25 Source: PECC State of the Region Survey 2017 Jobs at risk?

26 Source: US BLS Sample of Projected Job Changes in the US

27 But beware the reality

28 Wage Growth in the 4 th Industrial Revolution

29 % Labor Force with Tertiary Education Question: How many more people do you need to provide tertiary education to in ASEAN to reach US standard? Answer: For today s population 46 million

30 Problem is part of the solution

31 New business models: EdTech?

32 What determines export performance?

33 Air Passengers per capita

34 High value low volume to low value high volume Source: Global Megatrends: Implications for the ASEAN Economic Community

35 Supply Side Constraints a Concern for Developing Economies

36 Supply Side Constraint

37 This too.

38 4 th Industrial Revolution: Opportunities and Challenges for ASEAN MSME to engage in global economy More inclusive delivery of services mobile banking education transportation Large middle class opportunity to onshore in ASEAN Producer of solutions Disappearing jobs Speed of change & slow pace of reform Supply side constraints Lower returns to labor higher inequality social cohesion issues ASEAN economies to accelerate pace of reform to capture benefits of IR4.0: especially services and labor markets 38