2008/SOM1/MAG/WKSP/002 Session: 1. Digital Prosperity. Submitted by: Information Technology & Innovation Foundation

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1 2008/SOM1/MAG/WKSP/002 Session: 1 Digital Prosperity Submitted by: Information Technology & Innovation Foundation Workshop on Information Technology / Electronics Industry Lima, Peru 20 February 2008

2 Presentation to the APEC Workshop on IT/Electronics Industry Lima, Peru February 20, 2008 Dr. Robert Atkinson President Information Technology and Innovation Foundation Washington, DC It s the Digital Economy Higher productivity is the key to prosperity. Information Communications and Telecommunications (ICT) has been responsible for all the productivity acceleration in the U.S. since As a result, U.S. annual GDP is $1.9 trillion larger than it otherwise would be. ICT has spurred growth in most other nations, including APEC nations. Spurring digital transformation should be the principal goal of nations economic policies.

3 General Purpose Technologies Drive Change Most innovations comes in incremental improvements, with modest changes in products and processes. But approximately every half century a new technology system emerges that impacts virtually everything: what we produce, how we produce it, how we organize and manage production, the location of productive activity, the infrastructure needed, and the laws required. Since the mid-1990s ICT has been the engine of change and growth. GPT s Have 3 Main Characteristics 1. They undergo rapid price declines and performance improvements.

4 Moore s Law Means that Computing Power is Almost Free $2 $480 Microsoft s free Window s Live Hotmail service provides 5 GB of storage for subscribers. It would cost Microsoft almost $100 million for each subscriber if they used 1975 technology. $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 (Intel processing costs in $ per MIPS) Moore s Law Has Not Slowed Down (Transistor Growth in Intel Computer Processor Chips)

5 GPT s Have 3 Main Characteristics 1. They undergo rapid price declines and performance improvements. 2. They are pervasive. Computing Used To Be Scarce

6 Now ICT is Everywhere (70 % of computer chips don t go into computers.) The new John Deere Cotton Harvester GPS to show where it is. Microwave sensors to measure the flow of the cotton. RFID tag inserted into each bundle to let processors know precise origin of the bundle. Wireless data communications. The computing power of 8 PC s. Moore s Law Created a Revolution In 2010 there will 1 billion transistors for every person. More transistors than grains of rice.

7 Many Nations Are Seeing Rapid Growth In ICT Investment (Annual Growth Rate of ICT Investment, ) GPT s Have 3 Main Characteristics 1. They are pervasive 2. They undergo rapid price declines and performance improvements. 3. They make it easy to invent and produce new products, processes and business models.

8 ICT Underpins Innovation Business models: Wal-Mart s supply chain; Amazon s long tail ; itunes and the decline bricks and mortar music stores; etc. Processes: self-service; mass customization; supply-chain integration; collaborative design; etc. Products/Services: hybrid cars; transportation telematics; human genome; etc. ICT Has Driven Productivity Growth The production and use of ICT in the U.S. economy since 1995 has meant that the economy is almost $2 trillion larger than it would otherwise be. This is equivalent to 2 & ½ Indian economies (in $).

9 Sources of U.S. Total Factor Productivity Growth Productivity Growth is Critical (Economic Growth from Different Productivity Rates)

10 Annual U.S. Labor Productivity Growth Rebound U.S. Productivity Turnaround Has Been Powered by ICT Oliner and Sichel found that the use and production of computers were responsible for 0.92 percentage points of the 0.89 percentage point increase in labor productivity growth rates between and OECD found that ICT (production and use) was responsible for 109% of the growth in U.S. labor productivity from 1996 to 2002.

11 All APEC Nations Have Benefited Japan: From 2000 to 2004 ICT capital had a 5 times larger impact on gross domestic income than did non-ict capital, and was responsible for 51% of GDP growth, (Kanamori and Motohashi, 2007). Within manufacturing, use of ICT causes significant increase in productivity (Motohashi, 2007). Korea: 20 % of Gross Domestic Income from use of ICT from 1995 to 2004 (Kanamori and Motohashi, 2007). China: ICT usage accounted for 38% of the increase in TFP growth and 21% of GDP growth. (Heshmati and Yang, 2006) Australia: Higher computer use associated with higher MFP. Without price declines in computers in the 1990s, GDP would be 4.8% less in 2000 (Simon and Wardrop, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2002) APEC Benefits II Malaysia: Use of ICT had the largest impact on manufacturing productivity, larger than human capital. (Ahmed, 2006) Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand: ICT use had significant, positive impacts on productivity, GDP growth and overall stock market values from 1991 to 2002 (Feinberg and Tokic). Canada: The major reason for Canada s lagging productivity growth is its lagging ICT spending per worker, less than half of U.S. levels. (CSLS, 2005) Use of ICT is associated with positive performance in the food processing industry (Baldwin, Sabourin, and Smith, 2004).

12 Contributions of ICT to Labor Productivity ( ) 4.5 Annual Percentage Growth in Productivity Malaysia Ireland Taiwan Thailand South Korea Hong Kong USA UK Philippines Indonesia Netherlands Sweden France Italy Germany Finland Denmark Austria Portugal Spain China India Total Factor Productivity More IT Capital (Qiang and Pitt 2004, 8). ICT Seems To Be Super Capital With Larger Impacts On Productivity Than Other Capital Picks off the low hanging fruit of relatively easy to improve efficiencies. Enables companies to fundamentally reengineer processes. Has network externalities, where increasing the size of a network makes all users better off. ICT capital has 7 times the impact on GDP and productivity than non-ict capital in nations with lower levels of IT usage, (Nathan Associates, 2007), and around 3 times more in other nations.

13 The ICT -Engine Is Not Likely to Run Out of Gas Anytime Soon The core technologies (memory, processors, storage, sensors, displays, and communication) continue to get better, faster, cheaper, and easier to use, enabling new applications to be introduced on a regular basis. Many sectors, (e.g., health care, construction, government, etc.) have not fully tapped the potential of e-transformation. Application use by business and consumers continues to grow. What Should APEC Nations Do? Focus on Raising Productivity Across the Board Through Greater Use of ICT. East Asia has captured large share of ICT production, but trails other regions in ICT use (Wong, 2002).

14 What Should APEC Nations Do? Use Tax Incentives and Tariff Reductions to Spur ICT Investment Tariffs on IT products in India did not create a competitive domestic [hardware] industry, but they did limit adoption of ICT by Indian users by keeping prices high. (Kaushik and Singh, 2004.) For every 1 percent drop in price in ICT products, there is a 1.5 percent increase in demand. (Gurbaxani, 2003) In a cross-national study of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Kraemer and Dedrick (2001) found government policies that makes IT more expensive will discourage use and reduce the benefits of IT. What Should APEC Nations Do? Actively Encourage Digital Innovation and Transformation of Economic Sectors

15 What Should APEC Nations Do? Encourage Universal Digital Literacy and Digital Technology Adoption What Should APEC Nations Do? Do No Harm to the Digital Engine of Growth In countries that invest less in ICT, burdensome regulations can impede the adoption of ICT and slow productivity growth. Gust and Marquez, Federal Reserve Bank)

16 Rob Atkinson

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