Aspen Group, Inc (ASPU) Nick Palmer, Deeksha Chaturvedi, Jen Shi, Jennifer Gao

Transcription

1 Aspen Group, Inc (ASPU) Nick Palmer, Deeksha Chaturvedi, Jen Shi, Jennifer Gao

2

3 General Aspen Group is a post secondary education company with two subsidiaries: Aspen University and United States University (acquired Dec. 2017) Aspen offers Associate, Bachelor s, Master s, and Doctoral degrees in nursing, business, education, and tech Run a program that is tailored to exclusively online education Offer lower tuition rates compared to peers and minimize students having to take on debt by with affordable payment plans The student body is expected to reach 7,000 by April 2018 Stock Chart Student Body In 2017, Aspen s active degree seeking student body grew by 60% Aspen s School of Nursing accounts for 72% of students Nursing school expected to grow by 125 students/mo., net of graduations and withdrawals BSN students are expected to account for about 90 students/mo.

4 Model Low Cost for Students ASPU notably differs from competitors in that its model that does not require a student to carry a crippling debt load in order to enroll at Aspen University. ASPU allows students to pay for their education over a fixed period of months based on a $250, $325 or $375 payment per month depending on their chosen degree program. High Flexibility Students on a monthly payment plan can withdraw from their course of study at any time, and ASPU will cease billing on a monthly recurring basis immediately. ASPU offers a classic pay-as-you-go plan to students, enabling affordability and reduces the perceived risk by students that a substantial investment Student Acquisition The crux of making this model economically viable lies in ASPU s acumen with customer acquisition, which has yielded significant savings on a cost per lead basis relative to peers in the space. ASPU does not purchase non-branded, non-exclusive marketing leads from internet marketing companies, as this process has resulted in enrollment costs in the range of $4,000 to $5,000. Such high costs have necessitated legacy online for-profit entities to charge around $2,000 per course ASPU leverages the knowledge of its management team in sourcing leads from internet-based and analytically targeted Aspen University branded advertising campaign that, essentially vertically integrating the lead generation function in-house as opposed to purchasing expensive data from third parties.

5 Model Student Acquisition By developing its own highly targeted lead generation algos in house and by benefitting from referrals and other successful marketing tactics such as direct outreach to hospitals (the company already has 90 corporate partnerships in place with hospitals), the company has an unprecedented lead conversion rate of around 13%. This resulted in each student costing about $800 to acquire vs. the $4000 that the competitors spend. This allows ASPU to offer much lower tuition and have industry beating return on market spend (9.7x) The average tuition price quoted on a per new class start basis in Q2 17 was $819, evidencing that on a nominal dollar basis, the cost to acquire a new customer is almost made up entirely by one new class start; this highlights the flywheel nature of ASPU s model Organic Growth In Q2 2018, over 30% of new students were organic, meaning ASPU did not have to spend on marketing to attract these candidates; rather, organic leads originate as prospects who hear about ASPU s payment plan from an employer or colleague and go to the website or make an inbound call to the company s call center on their own. This is indicative of the superior brand reputation and value proposition of Aspen in student circles, particularly with the nursing population. A continued growth in the proportion of organic leads would further bolster ASPU s margins, which we think is one of the underappreciated levers the company has as it continues to penetrate the market.

6 Growth Strategy Establish Monthly Payment Plan (2014) ASPU took on significant risk creating their pay as you go model by cutting tuition cost by 50%. The risk has been extremely worthwhile with over 66% of all students enrolling in a pay as you go payment plan. This has result in really high returns with every dollar in marketing creating over 9 dollars in revenue and almost 6 dollars in gross profit. Acquire a Regionally Accredited University (2017) ASPU acquired United States University ($9M) to access its regional accreditation, which makes all ASPU credit transferable to regional institutions. ASPU plans to use USU s experience in lucrative degree in and Criminal Justice and introduce their own pay as you go system to expand their presence Launch A Nationwide Undergrad Program (2019/2020) ASPU plans to launch an nationwide market campaign promoting its undergraduate programs promising to make college affordable again. It will target the 36 million Americans who have college credits, but no degree and marketing them their programs to finish their education for $250 per month.

7 United States University A regionally accredited, student-centered university located in San Diego Mission aligns with ASPU: to make higher education affordable Brings programs in business & management, health sciences, education, and extended studies Greatly expands ASPU s course offerings - shows ASPU diversifying revenue and taking advantage of economies of scope High potential for future growth Brings on-campus location to previously 100% online university - adds legitimacy Acquired Dec. 2017

8 How Does ASPU Teach Nursing Online? Currently all of ASPU s nursing students are RNs and have already completed their clinical trials. For all ASPU BSN and MSN students there is a practicum requirement which requires all of its students spend 6 weeks working in a hospital. ASPU has develoed relationships with many local hospitals to allow for students to get this experience This hands on education combined with industry leading low cost has led ASPU to become the third largest nursing school in America. Online & Hands On

9

10 Education in America Median real household income has declined annualized rate of 1.6%% in the last 18 years, while tuition cost have grown at a rate of 5.6%. Tuition now represents more than 40% of the median households income. This is forcing many students to take on massive debt loads as families cannot support such high cost. This trend has made college loan debt the largest form of personal debt in the US. The US Department of Education found that in the last 25 years the median debt as a percent of recent college graduation wages has nearly tripled. Something simply has to give. Either students stop going to college, get crushed by debt, or they flock to cheaper solutions College Education Trends are Unsustainable

11 For Profit Education Debt Levels 96% of for profit students borrow money to attend. In % of all for profit revenue came from federal financial aid. Why is there debt? The average tuition cost for a for profit institution is 50% higher than a traditional public university. For profit universities attract the lowest income students where debt is their only option. Default Rate Higher debt levels and lower graduation rates means that most students have no ability to pay their loans, resulting in high default rates. American Public Media finds on average 20% of for profit students default on their loans, compare to the national average of 11.4% Lower Graduation Rates The average American college has a graduation rate of 59.4%, while public schools have an average of 58.6%. However, because of low quality education and aggressive tactics the average for profit university has a graduation rate 22.7%

12 Nursing High Employment Recent BSN graduates have a 4.8% unemployment rate while experience BSN nurse hold an unemployment rate of about 2.3% Nurses with graduate degrees have an unemployment rate of 1.7% Over 90% recent ASPU nursing graduates are employed Stability The average nursing career is rather long, which means high wages are sustained The typical nurse spends more than 10 years in the field High Wages Nursing also delivers rather high wages. The median pay for an RN is over $68,000 (50% higher than average American wage.) Furthermore, each progressive degree results in higher wages. This gives ASPU a lot of opportunity. There RSN to MSN program cost just $9,750 but delivers a $18,525 boost in annual wages.

13 Nursing Nursing Shortage 62% of all nurses are over the age of 40, with the average nurse being k are project to retire in the next 5 years alone. This age mismatch will result in large nursing shortage over the next decade, which will require 880k nursing jobs be created to mend gap. The percentage of Americans over the age of 60 is expected to increase from 14% to 20% by This will result in higher demand for healthcare as about 80 percent of older adults have at least one chronic condition, and 68 percent have at least two. This alone will create demand for an additional 700k nurses. BSN Push Many institutions such as the Institute of Medicine are recommending that 80% hold BSN degrees, up from the 50% that due currently. The American Association of Colleges of Nursing also stated that higher percentages of nurses holding BSNs reduces hospital casualties. Additionally many hospitals are pushing for more educated nurses so they can hire fewer doctors In December 2017 New York signed a law requiring that all nurses earn a BSN within 10 years of getting a license More states are also looking into this regulation

14 Nursing Education Not Enough Supply Nearly 155,000 new nursing graduates entered the workforce in While the number of new nursing students and graduates is growing, the nursing-education system hasn t kept pace, effectively creating a bottleneck in which only so many aspiring nurses can access the training they need. U.S. nursing schools turned away 79,659 qualified applicants from baccalaureate and graduate nursing programs in 2012 due to insufficient number of faculty, clinical sites, classroom space, clinical preceptors, and budget constraints. The aging nursing population has resulted in fewer nurses who are able to teach classes, which is resulting in an inability to take more students. This create great opportunity for ASPU as their programs have no limits on student teacher ratios. Geographical Mismatch The nursing shortage in many states is a result of limited to no educational opportunities. Nursing supply is mostly local, meaning nurses tend to stay in the same markets where they go to school. Fewer schools means fewer nurses. Unsurprisingly, rural and poorer areas have a harder time recruiting nurses than urban magnet hospitals, which can offer higher-paying jobs and lifestyle perks. This results in tremendous opportunity for ASPU because their online platform has no geographic constraints.

15 Nursing Education There are 140,000 students are currently enrolled in BSN completion programs in the US, with 50,000 new students joining every year. Aspen currently has under 3,600 nursing students meaning it holds 2.5% of the market. The market is extremely fragmented and Aspen can quickly grab share. Market Size

16

17 Better for Students, Better for Shareholders Aspen competes with all colleges, but primarily against other for profit colleges such as American Public Education, Inc., Grand Canyon Education, Inc. and Capella Education Company. Though they compete for the same enrollments, ASPU is the cheapest and the only with affordable monthly payments. High tuition cost are making the entire industry ripe for disruption, and will result in more growth opportunities for ASPU Other university simply cannot adopt the system Each competitor is bring in $300 million to $1 billion and are barely profitable. Switching to ASPU s model would cause and immediate hit to their financials.

18

19 Accounting Accounts Receivables Since the inception of APU s monthly payment plan in the spring of 2014, the accounts receivable balance, both short-term and long-term, has grown from a net number of $649,890 at April 30, 2014 to a net number of $5,092,404 at April 30, Some believe that this will prevent substantial free cash flow from ever being created and have started to doubt the validity of ASPU s income accounting BIG View The large, growing accounts receivable has to do with monthly payment plan Students pay on a monthly basis but do not necessarily take classes on a monthly bases Most students finish their studies before they have finished the monthly payments, but because ASPU has finished delivering the service the revenue is recognized. This leads to a large build up accounts receivable.

20 For Profit Risk Street Sees ASPU as Another For Profit Wall Street sees increasing debt burden as a huge head wind to the for profit university industry. The think this will lead to higher regulation and declining enrollment. The Street views ASPU as just another for profit school, which is downgrading its valuation. BIG View ASPU is not another for profit. Student have great success after graduation earning 50% more on average than before. 62% graduate. Most never take on debt. ASPU would not be a candidate for regulation because only 17% of funding comes from federal aid. Regulation would be good for Aspen as competitors would be shut down.

21

22 DCF Base case assumes that ASPU gains 5% of the nursing education market in 2027 and 1% of the non nursing online education market Assume that return on capital in the long run is less than Grand Canyon UNiversity but above the industry average. Assume margins in the long run are less than Grand Canyon UNiversity but above the industry average. DCF

23 Comparable Valuation Used a EV/Sales multiple Built a comparable group of 30 firms and ran a regression of the EV/Sales multiple against revenue growth Used 2019 revenue and based on the regression that gave up an expected multiple of 10x Sales Multiple

24 Risk Regulations Related - Title IV Funds - Education requirements for Nursing lowering - Accreditation - Online DEAC Nursing CCNE Borrower defense to repayment - Gainful employment regulations Brick and Mortar Competition - B&M schools integration with online platforms - Network of Clinical sites (nursing specific) - Abundance of teaching staff (nursing specific) - Nursing exam pass rates - NCLEX-RN - NCLEX-PN Other - D2L Platforms stability and Contract - HEMG lawsuits - Whistleblower Lawsuits - Unpredictable, usually filed under seal. - Trump Administration s loosening of regulations for for profit education.