Industry OUTLOOK. Presentation to WISF Health Care Subcommittee November 19, Building Tomorrow s Workforce Today

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1 Industry OUTLOOK Presentation to WISF Health Care Subcommittee November 19, 2010 Building Tomorrow s Workforce Today

2 Overview State and Local Trends Growth and Demand Factors JVS Health Care Advisory Board and on-the-ground Employer Survey Findings Health Care Academy Alignment and Strategy 2

3 California Expects Growth In Healthcare Jobs in the Coming Two Years California Industry Employment Projections Projected # Change Projected % Change Ambulatory Health Care Services 26, % Hospitals 11, % Nursing & Residential Care Facilities 10, % Source: CA EDD 3

4 San Francisco Unemployment Rate Remains at 9.7% Series Source: CA Employment Development Department, October

5 In the San Francisco Metropolitan Area, healthcare jobs have been lost in the past year San Francisco, San Mateo, Redwood City Metropolitan District: Industry Employment Change, August- September 2010 Change, September July 2010 Ambulatory Health Care Services Hospitals Nursing & Residential Care Facilities Steady at 26,000, or 0.0% Steady at 23,100, or 0.0% Steady at 12,200, or 0.0% Net Gain of 100 jobs, or.4% Net Loss of 1,300 jobs, or -5.7% Net gain of 300 jobs, or 2.5% Source: CA EDD 5

6 Employment Projection Data : But What About the Recession? Healthcare Reform? Healthcare Occupations With Projected Highest Growth San Francisco Bay Area, Projected % Growth Pharmacy Technician 26.1% Home Health Aide 21.7% Physical Therapist Aide 17.4% Medical Assistant 15.7% Surgical Technologist 15.5% Dental Assistant 14.2% Source: CA EDD Occupational Guides 6

7 Employment Projection Data : But What About the Recession? Healthcare Reform? Healthcare Occupations With Projected Highest # Openings San Francisco Bay Area, Projected # Annual Openings (New + Replacement) Registered Nurse 447 Health Technologists 437 Other Healthcare Support Occupations 311 Nursing, Psychiatric, and Home Health Aides 187 Licensed Vocational Nurse 119 Home Care Aide 96 Source: CA EDD Occupational Guides 7

8 Recent Research Reveals Training and Employment Needs San Francisco Bay Area healthcare employers anticipate more than 4,000 new and replacement jobs in ten key allied health occupations over the next twelve months. California Community Colleges Centers of Excellence, Environmental Scan of Allied Health Occupations, San Francisco Bay Area, June 2010 This report summarizes the findings of a workforce survey conducted with 400 employers in the 11-county Bay Area to better understand the projected demand for allied health occupations and the workforce needs of employers over the next 12 months. 8

9 Findings of the Centers of Excellence Report Three of the 10 occupations addressed by the survey Medical Assistants, Pharmacy Technicians, and Medical Laboratory Technicians will generate the highest number of new and replacement jobs over the next year. Occupation New and Replacement Jobs (11-county Bay Area, 7/10-6/11) Medical Assistants 1,720 Pharmacy Technicians 560 Clinical Lab Scientists 410 Medical Laboratory Technicians 300 Medical Records/HIT 280 Psychiatric Technicians 190 Radiological Technologists 170 Certified Coders 140 Respiratory Therapists 130 Radiological Technicians 110 Total 4,010

10 Findings of the Centers of Excellence Report Over 50% of employers are having difficulty hiring qualified candidates in four of the ten occupations studied.

11 Findings of the Centers of Excellence Report Supply/Demand: Three occupations, Medical Assistants, Pharmacy Technicians, and Medical Laboratory Technicians are significantly undersupplied by colleges and proprietary schools. Occupations Community Colleges Total # of Graduates Post-Secondary Education Institutions & Proprietary Schools Total # of Graduates/Degrees ( ) ** Total Graduates Total Job Openings Next 12 Months Gap (program Completers Job Openings) Medical Assistants , Pharmacy Technicians Clinical Laboratory Scientists and Medical Laboratory Technologists Medical Laboratory Technicians N/A Unavailable

12 Employment in Healthcare will continue to grow Contributing Factors Population growth Aging population Advances in medical technology Need for replacement workers Healthcare Reform 12

13 Employment in Healthcare will continue to grow Population growth By 2040, the eleven Bay Area counties are expected to grow by 29% overall 1 Aging population By 2030, it is estimated that the number of adults over 65 in America will top 70 million, or roughly 20% of the total population. The San Francisco Bay Area mirrors this national trend 2 Advances in medical technology Improvement in survival rates and treatment of injuries need for extensive therapies and care 3 1,2 CA Community Colleges Centers of Excellence, Environmental Scan of Allied Health Occupations, San Francisco Bay Area, June United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 Employment in Healthcare will continue to grow Need for Replacement Workers Bay Area healthcare employers surveyed expect 8.8% of their total workforce to retire over the next three years. 1 High turnover for some entry level positions. 2 Healthcare Reform 8.2 million Californians, or 22% of the state s population, lack health insurance. Insuring more people will increase demand for health professionals who contribute to the delivery of primary care, including: Clinical laboratory professionals and imaging professionals (e.g., clinical laboratory scientists, radiologic technologists) who provide screening and diagnostic tests; Pharmacists and other pharmacy personnel who process prescriptions; and Professionals who provide health education and counseling to prevent disease or manage chronic illness. 3 1 CA Community Colleges Centers of Excellence, Environmental Scan of Allied Health Occupations, San Francisco Bay Area, June United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 3 Impact of National Health Care Reform on California s Health Care Workforce, California Program on Access to Care, UCOP

15 On-the-ground Industry Outlook JVS Health Care Advisory Board (August 2010) JVS s Health Care Advisory Board (HCAB) is comprised of 56 representatives from 28 regional healthcare facilities, education and training institutions, and government agencies. Employer Survey Findings (October/November, 2010) California Pacific Medical Center, Laguna Honda Hospital, Maxim, Aerotech, San Francisco General Hospital, Department of Public Health, UCSF, Kaiser Permanente, On Lok, Chinatown Health Center, and Chinese Hospital

16 Key Trends More job openings will occur in ambulatory, nursing, and residential care settings Strong growth is projected for Home Health Care Services There is a current need, with need increasing, for more Medical Assistants, Clinical Lab Scientists, and Pharmacy Technicians The demand for nurses is expected to increase in the near future Pharmacy Technicians highest projected growth CA EDD Research JVS HCAB and Employer Surveys Medical Assistants highest projected growth 16

17 On-the-ground Employment and Training Findings Downsizing and cost reductions are resulting in demand for lowerpaid positions, often to replace RNs and other higher-paid positions. Different models of primary care team approach using panel management will require different staffing. Healthcare Accounting, Eligibility Workers, Clerical/Administrative Support needs will increase. Increasing emphasis on use of technology in all settings. Incumbent worker training on technology is critical. Health Information Technology is a growing field.

18 On-the-ground Employment and Training Findings New grads without experience will not be as competitive when applying for jobs. Multiple/stacked certifications as minimum qualifications are becoming more common. There is a need to support low-skilled individuals to gain longer-term training, increasing their qualifications for a broader range of skilled positions. In areas with growing labor market demand, costly for-profit providers will step in to offer training.

19 Health Care Academy Programmatic Elements for Successful Job Placement Recruitment, screening, and intake processes to ensure a good match between the applicant, the program, and the target occupation. Job readiness, basic skills, and hands-on technical skills training offered through the lens of specific health care occupations. Individualized services to support training completion, industry and occupation specific job search, and success on the job. A strong link to local employers that results in an understanding of the target occupations and connections to jobs JVS HCAB, Ongoing Employer Engagement, Health Care WISF Subcommittee. 19

20 Personal Care Giver Home Health Aide Academy Graduates Ready for Hire (August December, 2010) August September October November December TOTAL CNA LVN RN EMT Phlebotomy Phlebotomy/EKG 1 1 HIT 0 MA MAA TOTAL

21 Personal Care Giver Home Health Aide Academy Graduates Ready for Hire (January - May, 2011) January February March April May TOTAL CNA LVN RN 0 EMT 0 Phlebotomy 3 3 Phlebotomy/EKG HIT MA MAA TBD TOTAL

22 Health Care Academy Programmatic Challenges for Successful Job Placement Most Academy graduates have limited experience. Most Academy graduates have a single certificate/license. Dozens (sometimes hundreds) of applicants for a single job. Graduation dates do not always align with hiring timing. Hiring has not picked up everywhere how can we help support new graduates with skills upkeep and development? 22

23 DISCUSSION WISF Health Care Subcommittee November 19, 2010 Building Tomorrow s Workforce Today

24 REAL-TIME INTELLIGENCE Labor Market Data DECISION POINT Training Offered Placement Expectations Focus Groups 1: 1 Interviews Sector Committee Meetings Building Tomorrow s Workforce Today

25 Discussion General reactions to projections What is your perspective on the trends? What are the Health Care workforce priorities for the coming year? How can we align our employment and training strategy with these priorities? Building Tomorrow s Workforce Today

26 Next Steps Fall 2010: Sector Research and Analysis Winter/Spring 2011: Health Care Sector Strategic Action Plan Summer 2011: Implementation

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