The First 100 Days of a FUTURE FOR EVERYONE

Transcription

1 The First 100 Days of a FUTURE FOR EVERYONE Summary Report of Delphi Survey January

2 FUTURE FOR EVERYONE Introduction The 2016 election cycle challenges us all to rethink the future of our civic sphere and the tools, technologies, and processes we need to ensure a free and open society. The incoming administration has laid out a plan for its first 100 days. Shortly after the election, IFTF invited approximately 200 members of its foresight community academics, journalists, and community organizers to create its own blueprint for the first 100 days of the new administration. To create an agenda for action, we went back to our roots and used a modified Delphi method to survey these experts. A Delphi survey uses multiple rounds of questions and feedback to help the group reach a consensus. In Round 1 of this study, we asked participants to suggest the top five actions that we, as a community, could take in the first 100 days of this administration to support a free and open society. We collated the results of this round into 79 potential actions, organized into 13 zones of action. For Round 2, we asked the same set of participants to first rank the 13 zones of action and then rate each of the 79 actions for their potential impact. This report is a summary report of the results of this round. It includes: o The initial and final rankings of the 13 zones of action o A summary of the highest-ranking actions in each zone o An appendix with complete responses for all the actions CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 2

3 FUTURE FOR EVERYONE Zones of Action Round 1 of the Delphi survey produced 13 zones of action. At the beginning of Round 2, expert participants in the study were asked to rank these zones from most important to least important, where 1 was the most important. At the conclusion of the survey, they were asked to rank them a second time, having evaluated the potential impact of the specific actions in each zone. The table below shows the initial ranking and the final ranking for all participants combined. Initial Ranking Final Ranking 1 Supporting a vital ecosystem of journalism and media 1 Supporting a vital ecosystem of journalists and media 2 Averting global warming 2 Fostering solidarity with vulnerable populations 3 Fostering solidarity with 3 Building civic engagement vulnerable populations 4 Reforming the electoral process 4 Averting global warming and supporting voter rights 5 Building civic engagement 5 Reforming the electoral process and supporting voter rights 6 Putting the legal system to work 6 Putting the legal system to work 7 Engaging in political advocacy 7 Engaging in political advocacy and and action action 8 Resisting normalization 8 Reimagining work and education 9 Cultivating new civic literacies 9 Resisting normalization 10 Nurturing a diversity of 10 Supporting alternative paths to perspectives social services 11 Reimagining work and education 11 Cultivating new civic literacies 12 Protecting privacy and cryptosecurity 13 Supporting alternative paths to social services 12 Protecting privacy and cryptosecurity 13 Nurturing a diversity of perspectives CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 3

4 FUTURE FOR EVERYONE High-Impact Actions Within each action zone, experts were asked to rate several possible actions for their potential impact. The choices were low impact, measurable impact, or high impact. While nearly all actions received high-impact ratings from some of the experts, those listed here were rated high-impact by more than 50% of the respondents. For the complete list of actions and ratings, see the Appendix. Supporting a vital ecosystem of journalists and media Invent new business models for media and journalism to ensure a free press dedicated to transparency, accountability, and ground truth (60%) Figure out how to break the algorithms that are polarizing the public debate in order to deliver real news about Trump s failure to deliver on his promises to Trump supporters (53%) Create a distributed task force for investigative journalism to investigate Trump s investment/holdings/properties and trace how policy decisions may impact his businesses indirectly or by proxy (53%) Create an infrastructure to protect independent media and journalism, with social media layers for verification, investment platforms for investigative journalism networks, and tools for identifying bots and protecting against them (50.0%) Develop standards for truth/fact checking, hate speech, and algorithmic warning labels for search engines and social media to apply those standards (50%) Fostering solidarity with vulnerable populations If registries for Muslims and other vulnerable populations are established, create universal sanctuaries by registering everyone on them, not just targeted populations (71.4%) Pledge to protect vulnerable populations, especially witnessing and reporting hostile acts (61.5%) Engage in swift, decisive protests against the appointment of neo-nazi sympathizers to positions in the government (50%) CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 4

5 FUTURE FOR EVERYONE High-Impact Actions, Cont. Building civic engagement Develop literacies in technologies of propaganda and in resistance technologies like encryption (57.1%) Averting global warming Establish carbon import standards and apply a carbon tax for not meeting those standards (58.3%) Find ways to communicate clearly that global climate disruption is a critical issue for the future security of the United States (50%) Reforming the electoral process and supporting voter rights Investigate all voter suppression and other electoral irregularities, including but not only those related to Russian hacking (71.4%) Push for the Supreme Court to hear a case on political gerrymandering, following up on the Wisconsin ruling (66.7%) Putting the legal system to work Create a fund for lawyers to do pro bono work for victims of hate crimes and inadequate due process (58.3%) Prosecute business-based corruption in the federal government, especially in the executive branch (50.0%) Reimagining work and education Create a 21 st century public educational system that teaches problemsolving, critical thinking, civic engagement, and the technical skills necessary to compete in the global economy (61.5%) Anticipate the future of 3.5 million mostly white men with mostly highschool diplomas (or less) who may find themselves out of work over the next four years as the trucking industry is automated (53.8%) Resisting normalization Organize mass noncompliance with unconstitutional government actions such as a Muslim registry (66.7%) CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 5

6 FUTURE FOR EVERYONE High-Impact Actions, Cont. Supporting alternative paths to social services Establish the feasibility of and a political path to a public option for health care: Medicare for all (66.7%) Invest in organizations that provide women s health services (58.3%) Create a health services network to compensate for the repeal of Obamacare (50%) CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 6

7 FUTURE FOR EVERYONE Next Steps IFTF has already begun to pursue the first action zone identified in this study. From January 10-12, 2017, in partnership with the Skoll Foundation and the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), we convened journalists from around the world who risk their lives every day analyzing the multi-trillion dollar criminal economy to uncover global corruption. This group of journalists, along with experts in media, academia, policy, and technology, participated in the conversation to explore The Future of Democracy: Preserving A Vibrant Civic Media. The result will be a public roadmap of initiatives to preserve an open civic dialogue and strengthen democracy for everyone. CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 7

8 FUTURE FOR EVERYONE Appendix Below are the complete survey ratings for all of the actions proposed in Round 1 and rated in Round 2. Participants were asked to rate each action as either low impact, measurable impact, or high impact. Catalyze a public online discussion, on a platform like Foresight Engine, about the future of media in a world where lies are cheap and the trust is expensive. Low Impact 41.2% Measurable Impact 47.1% High Impact 11.8% Encourage vigorous investigative journalism in the public interest by subscribing or contributing to individual journalists and the organizations supporting them. Measurable Impact 64.7% High Impact 35.3% Support multi-dimensional investigative journalism, including live events, by taking a tip from sports journalism and using podcasting, live streaming, and old-fashioned AM radio. Low Impact 11.8% Measurable Impact 52.9% High Impact 35.3% Create an infrastructure to protect independent media and journalism, with social media layers for verification, investment platforms for investigative journalism networks, and tools for identifying bots and protecting against them. Low Impact 12.5% Measurable Impact 37.5% High Impact 50.0% Put pressure on corporate owners of media entities to protect journalists. Low Impact 18.8% Measurable Impact 56.3% High Impact 25.0% Invent new business models for media and journalism to ensure a free press dedicated to transparency, accountability, and ground truth. Low Impact 13.3% Measurable Impact 26.7% High Impact 60.0% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 8

9 Develop standards for truth/fact-checking, hate speech, and algorithmic warning labels for search engines and social media to apply those standards. Low Impact 12.5% Measurable Impact 37.5% High Impact 50.0% Make it a daily practice to seek out responsible investigative reports and share them broadly on social media. Low Impact 40.0% Measurable Impact 46.7% High Impact 13.3% Call out hate speech on all media channels. Low Impact 21.4% Measurable Impact 64.3% High Impact 14.3% On social media and through direct communication, call out journalists and media organizations that are giving the president-elect s administration a pass. Low Impact 33.3% Measurable Impact 40.0% High Impact 26.7% Figure out how to break the algorithms that are polarizing the public debate in order to deliver real news about Trump s failure to deliver on his promises to Trump supporters. Low Impact 20.0% Measurable Impact 26.7% High Impact 53.3% Create a distributed task force for investigative journalism to investigate Trump s investment/holdings/properties and trace how policy decisions may impact his businesses indirectly or by proxy. Low Impact 13.3% High Impact 53.3% Exercise the muscles of representative government by calling representatives and attending town hall meetings. Low Impact 12.5% Measurable Impact 56.3% High Impact 31.3% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 9

10 Attend local police commission meetings and speak out against racial profiling and excessive violence. Low Impact 6.3% Measurable Impact 75.0% High Impact 18.8% Get as many private citizens engaged in government agencies as possible, even as volunteers. Low Impact 18.8% Measurable Impact 43.8% High Impact 37.5% Redirect funding to civic organizations by including a civic calculus on our financial balance sheets. Low Impact 33.3% Measurable Impact 53.3% High Impact 13.3% Set up participatory budgeting systems at the city level across the countries to build civic engagement. Low Impact 31.3% Measurable Impact 56.3% High Impact 12.5% Develop visualizations of what elected representatives are actually doing with their time and influence. Low Impact 25.0% Measurable Impact 56.3% High Impact 18.8% Set up free non-partisan civic education/engagement programs in all public libraries to teach people what they are voting on. Do this today to be ready for next round of elections. Low Impact 33.3% Measurable Impact 46.7% High Impact 20.0% Use simple, clear communication to inform people of their civil rights, including people of color, immigrants, and religious minorities. Low Impact 6.7% Measurable Impact 66.7% High Impact 26.7% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 10

11 Develop a handbook of instructions for what do if civil rights are violated or individuals are harassed. Low Impact 26.7% Measurable Impact 60.0% High Impact 13.3% Develop literacies in technologies of propaganda and in resistance technologies like encryption. Low Impact 21.4% Measurable Impact 21.4% High Impact 57.1% Build a literacy of transformation and how to survive/thrive in times of rapid change. Low Impact 35.7% Measurable Impact 21.4% High Impact 42.9% Map the future of technologies, tools, and applications for new ways of voting and making constituent voices heard. Low Impact 40.0% Measurable Impact 26.7% High Impact 33.3% Promote so-called liquid democracy or delegative democracy in which voters either vote directly on issues or delegate their votes to someone who will vote their position. Low Impact 53.3% High Impact 13.3% Establish an online foresight congress as a shadow government to positively preempt near-term government actions with negative long-term impacts. Low Impact 26.7% Measurable Impact 46.7% High Impact 26.7% Create an online mechanism for stakeholder communities, at both large and local scales, to shape the futures they want. Low Impact 28.6% Measurable Impact 57.1% High Impact 14.3% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 11

12 Support the movement for a National Popular Vote Compact to use the popular vote as the deciding vote in presidential elections. Low Impact 33.3% Measurable Impact 20.0% High Impact 46.7% Investigate all voter suppression and other electoral irregularities, including but not only those related to Russian hacking. Low Impact 7.1% Measurable Impact 21.4% High Impact 71.4% Push for the Supreme Court to hear a case on political gerrymandering, following up on the Wisconsin ruling. Low Impact 13.3% Measurable Impact 20.0% High Impact 66.7% Create future-focused freespaces in red states to build community and facilitate dialogue that transcends economic and cultural divides. Low Impact 21.4% Measurable Impact 42.9% High Impact 35.7% Create conversational guides for understanding someone else s future: a set of questions that could structure encounters between people who do or do not know one another. Low Impact 35.7% Measurable Impact 50.0% High Impact 14.3% Communicate widely about both the business and social value of diversity of all kinds. Low Impact 50.0% Measurable Impact 35.7% High Impact 14.3% Create an American Truth and Reconciliation effort to initiate open civil dialogue between those with opposing views in order to find common ground. Low Impact 42.9% Measurable Impact 28.6% High Impact 28.6% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 12

13 Pledge to protect vulnerable populations, especially by witnessing and reporting hostile acts. Low Impact 23.1% Measurable Impact 15.4% High Impact 61.5% Visibly express solidarity with marginalized groups, for example, by wearing a white rose. Low Impact 61.5% Measurable Impact 38.5% If registries for Muslims and other vulnerable populations are established, create universal sanctuaries by registering everyone on them, not just targeted populations. Measurable Impact 28.6% High Impact 71.4% Establish an intersectional action network across civic, gender, racial, and environmental stakeholder communities. Low Impact 38.5% Measurable Impact 30.8% High Impact 30.8% Engage in swift, decisive protests against the appointment of neo-nazi sympathizers to positions in government. Low Impact 16.7% High Impact 50.0% Display one s own vulnerability in public and online spaces, for example, with statements like: I am afraid I m part of the problem. Low Impact 69.2% Measurable Impact 30.8% Create a roadmap of ways to organize an opposition movement and connect to it. Low Impact 41.7% Measurable Impact 41.7% High Impact 16.7% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 13

14 Organize mass noncompliance with unconstitutional government actions such as a Muslim registry. High Impact 66.7% Create a decentralized network of chapters of resistance across the country that meet regularly to brainstorm and plan direct action. Low Impact 15.4% Measurable Impact 61.5% High Impact 23.1% Engage in personal acts of resistance everyday. Wake up every morning refusing to normalize corruption and civil rights abuses. Low Impact 15.4% Measurable Impact 53.8% High Impact 30.8% Accelerate the pace of learning about organizing techniques and messaging. Low Impact 33.3% High Impact 33.3% Protect First Amendment rights, especially the right to dissent, organize, and protest. Low Impact 23.1% Measurable Impact 23.1% High Impact 53.8% Organize a nationwide effort to develop a platform and brand for a progressive urban America with an agenda that local political candidates can use to run and win. Low Impact 41.7% Measurable Impact 25.0% High Impact 33.3% Train massive numbers of new local candidates to run and win on a prourban/pro-america agenda. Low Impact 33.3% Measurable Impact 25.0% High Impact 41.7% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 14

15 Identify and lightly organize local actions that can manifest an appealing progressive America. Low Impact 33.3% Measurable Impact 25.0% High Impact 41.7% Find and connect with like-minded groups in other nations that are responding to their own nativist reactionary movements. Low Impact 25.0% Measurable Impact 41.7% High Impact 33.3% Create a fund for lawyers to do pro bono work for victims of hate crimes and inadequate due process. Measurable Impact 41.7% High Impact 58.3% Prosecute business-based corruption in the federal government, especially in the executive branch. Low Impact 16.7% High Impact 50.0% Defend federal employees right to continue their service while functioning an internal check on federal government (i.e., as whistleblowers) and set up network of such civic servants. Low Impact 25.0% Measurable Impact 50.0% High Impact 25.0% Set up a defense fund to defend immigrants. Low Impact 15.4% Measurable Impact 46.2% High Impact 38.5% Encourage civic organizers to take their conversations onto more secure venues and platforms. Low Impact 23.1% Measurable Impact 53.8% High Impact 23.1% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 15

16 Create safe networks, private communication channels, and other dictatorshipproof internet habits and encourage everyone to use them, not just activists. Low Impact 16.7% Measurable Impact 50.0% High Impact 33.3% Vocally protest the vast surveillance apparatus created during the Obama presidency via executive order. Low Impact 41.7% High Impact 25.0% Build local social service funding cooperatives. Low Impact 15.4% Measurable Impact 46.2% High Impact 38.5% Invest in organizations that provide women s health services. Measurable Impact 41.7% High Impact 58.3% Create a health services network to compensate for the repeal of Obamacare. Low Impact 16.7% High Impact 50.0% Develop solutions to financial burdens of your people, including access to education and debt relief. Measurable Impact 66.7% High Impact 33.3% Establish the feasibility of and a political path to a public option health care: Medicare for all. High Impact 66.7% Use Social Security Section 1115 to encourage states to establish pilots and experiments for expanding Medicaid services beyond the current populations. Low Impact 30.8% Measurable Impact 38.5% High Impact 30.8% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 16

17 Establish an apolitical infrastructure bank with projects prioritized regionally and including transparency around approval process, with matching federal funds. Low Impact 23.1% Measurable Impact 53.8% High Impact 23.1% Help create realistic expectations about how many traditional jobs really can be restored and what alternatives exist for making a living. Measurable Impact 58.3% High Impact 41.7% Develop platforms and channels for understanding and communicating the future of work, jobs, and corporations, especially the role of robotics. Low Impact 30.8% Measurable Impact 46.2% High Impact 23.1% Anticipate the future of 3.5 million mostly white men with mostly high school diplomas (or less) who may find themselves out of work over the next four years as the trucking industry is automated. Low Impact 15.4% Measurable Impact 30.8% High Impact 53.8% Establish the feasibility and benefits of a universal basic income how much and how to fund it. Low Impact 30.8% Measurable Impact 61.5% High Impact 7.7% Address minimum wage and equal pay issues. Low Impact 16.7% Measurable Impact 41.7% High Impact 41.7% Build out international work platforms based on crypto-currencies. Low Impact 41.7% Measurable Impact 50.0% High Impact 8.3% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 17

18 Create jobs around a regenerative economy, such as the community land trust model in France that provides 2 million acres for 12 million organic farming jobs. Low Impact 8.3% Measurable Impact 66.7% High Impact 25.0% Create a 21st century public educational system that teaches problem-solving, critical thinking, civic engagement, and the technical skills necessary to compete in the global economy. Low Impact 15.4% Measurable Impact 23.1% High Impact 61.5% Find ways to communicate clearly that global climate disruption is a critical issue for the future security of the United States. Low Impact 41.7% Measurable Impact 8.3% High Impact 50.0% Highlight the advantages that China has already realized from its investment in wind and solar energy and the potential for the U.S. to share in this lucrative market or to fall behind. Low Impact 15.4% Measurable Impact 46.2% High Impact 38.5% Develop alternative energy models and partnerships and recommit to a green planet, focusing on renewable energy. Low Impact 16.7% Measurable Impact 41.7% High Impact 41.7% Provide a youth toolkit for working with local governments to envision impacts of and responses to climate change. Low Impact 46.2% Measurable Impact 30.8% High Impact 23.1% Identify and support citizens and groups that are working to prevent climate change. Low Impact 25.0% Measurable Impact 58.3% High Impact 16.7% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 18

19 Establish carbon import standards and apply a carbon tax for not meeting those standards. Low Impact 8.3% High Impact 58.3% Create scenarios of the impacts of pulling out of the Paris Agreement. Low Impact 16.7% Measurable Impact 41.7% High Impact 41.7% CC BY-NC-ND Institute for the Future SR-1916B 19