Employment Outlook: Kristina Bartsch James Franklin Council of Graduate Schools Graduate Education Research and Policy Forum March 21, 2012

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Employment Outlook: 2010-20 Kristina Bartsch James Franklin Council of

1 Employment Outlook: Kristina Bartsch James Franklin Council of Graduate Schools Graduate Education Research and Policy Forum March 21, 2012

2 Overview Background information Population and labor force Economic and Industry growth Occupational growth 2

3 Employment Projections Background 10-year projections made every 2 years projections cover over 700 occupations and 300 industries Projections are used to produce the Occupational Outlook Handbook which has been published since

employment projections by industry and occupation Technical

4 Employment Projections Products Occupational Outlook Handbook Occupational Outlook Quarterly Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation Technical materials replacement rates, education and training categories, and more 4

5 Employment Outlook: Population and Labor Force Growth 5

Population and Labor Force Millions of persons 212.6 237.8 263.0 142.6 153.9 164.

6 Population and Labor Force Millions of persons Projected Projected 2020 Population aged 16 and over Population Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Labor Force 6

7 Population Growth Rate Annual rates of change 2.6% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% Civilian non-institutional population aged 16 and over Labor Force 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% Projected Population Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 7

8 Labor Force Participation Rates Percent Men Total Women Projected

Labor Force Share by Age Group 2000 13% 20% 2010 22% 16% 23% 14% 26% 23% Projected

9 Labor Force Share by Age Group % 20% % 16% 23% 14% 26% 23% Projected % 22% 22% 20% 11% 16 to to to 44 21% 22% 45 to and older 9

Labor Force Share by Race 2010 12% 5% 2% Projected

10 Labor Force Share by Race % 5% 2% Projected % 6% 3% Black Asian All other White 81% 79% 10

11 Labor Force Share by Ethnicity 15% 2010 Projected % Non-Hispanic Hispanic 85% 81% 11

12 Labor Force Growth by Race and Ethnicity Change in millions, projected Asian Black White Other Hispanic Non-hispanic 12

13 Employment Outlook: Economic and Industry Growth 13

6% 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-10

14 Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Annual rate of change 4.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.0% 1.6% Projected Historic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 14

15 Nominal GDP by Component Percent of GDP Projected Personal Consumption Expenditures Investment Exports Imports Government Historic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

16 Employment All other employment Nonagricultural wage and salary employment Projected

17 Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment In millions Actual and projected (1.4% annual growth rate, ) With no recession (0.6% annual growth rate, ) Projected 2020 NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only. 17

18 Employment and Output: 2010 Percent distribution Nonagriculture wage and salary employment Nominal nonagriculture output 78.8% 69.4% 12.4% 24.3% Goods producing Service providing 18

Employment by Industry Sector: 2010 Thousands of wage and salary jobs State and local government Professional and business services Health care and social assistance Retail trade Leisure and

19 Employment by Industry Sector: 2010 Thousands of wage and salary jobs State and local government Professional and business services Health care and social assistance Retail trade Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing Financial activities Other services Construction Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing Educational services Federal government Information Mining 7, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,524.0 Service providing Goods producing Utilities

Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Health care and social

trade Financial activities Leisure and hospitality State and local government Information Mining Manufacturing Utilities 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.

20 Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Health care and social assistance Construction Educational services Professional and business services Transportation and warehousing Wholesale trade Other services Retail trade Financial activities Leisure and hospitality State and local government Information Mining Manufacturing Utilities 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% -0.1% -0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= 1.4% Service providing Goods producing Federal government -1.3% 20

Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20 Thousands of wage and salary jobs Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Construction Retail trade State and

21 Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected Thousands of wage and salary jobs Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Construction Retail trade State and local government Leisure and hospitality Transportation and warehousing Other services Educational services Financial activities Wholesale trade Information Mining Utilities Manufacturing , , , , , ,809.0 Service providing Goods producing Federal government

22 Employment Outlook: Occupational Growth 22

projected 2010-20 Biomedical engineers 61.7% Cashiers 7.

23 Percent Change vs. Numeric Change Percent employment growth in two occupations, projected Biomedical engineers 61.7% Cashiers 7.3% Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected , in thousands Biomedical engineers 9.7 Cashiers

24 Employment by Major Occupational Group: 2010 Thousands of jobs Office and administrative support 22,602.5 Sales and related Food preparation and serving related Education, training, and library Transportation and material moving Management Production Healthcare practitioners and technical Business and financial operations Construction and extraction 14, , , , , , , , ,328.0 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 5,498.5 (Continued on next slide) 24

25 Employment by Major Occupational Group: 2010 Thousands of jobs (Continued) Installation, maintenance, and repair Personal care and service Healthcare support Computer and mathematical Protective service Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media Architecture and engineering Community and social service Life, physical, and social science Legal Farming, fishing, and forestry 5, , , , , , , , , ,

Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Projected 2010-20 Average, all occupations = 14.3% Healthcare support 34.

26 Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Projected Average, all occupations = 14.3% Healthcare support 34.5% Personal care and service Healthcare practitioners and technical Community and social service Construction and extraction Computer and mathematical Business and financial operations Life, physical, and social science Education, training, and library Transportation and material moving Installation, maintenance, and repair 17.3% 15.5% 15.3% 14.8% 14.7% 26.8% 25.9% 24.2% 22.2% 22.0% (Continued on next slide) 26

Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Projected 2010-20 (Continued) Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media Sales and related Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

27 Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Projected (Continued) Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media Sales and related Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance Protective service Legal Architecture and engineering Office and administrative support Food preparation and serving related Management Production Farming, fishing, and forestry -2.0% 4.2% 7.0% 12.6% 12.5% 12.1% 11.0% 10.8% 10.4% 10.3% 9.8% Average, all occupations = 14.3% 27

28 Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected Office and administrative support Healthcare practitioners and technical Sales and related 2, , ,335.7 Healthcare support 1,443.7 Construction and extraction 1,407.2 Education, training, and library 1,403.7 Personal care and service 1,336.6 Transportation and material moving 1,328.7 Business and financial operations 1,172.5 Food preparation and serving related 1,092.5 Installation, maintenance, and repair (Continued on next slide) 28

29 Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected (Continued) Computer and mathematical Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance Management Community and social service Protective service Production Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media Architecture and engineering Life, physical, and social science Legal Farming, fishing, and forestry

30 Employment Trends for Occupational Groups whose Employment Declined Percent of 2006 employment Total, All Occupations Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations Sales and Related Occupations Architecture and Engineering Occupations Office and Administrative Support Occupations Transportation and Material Moving Occupations Construction and Extraction Occupations Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 70 Production Occupations Projected 2020 NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only. 30

31 Employment Trends for Occupational Groups with Little Employment Change Percent of 2006 employment Community and Social Service Occupations Education, Training, and Library Occupations Business and Financial Operations Occupations Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations Legal Occupations Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations Management Occupations Projected 2020 NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only. 31

32 Employment Trends for Occupational Groups whose Employment Increased Percent of 2006 employment Healthcare Support Occupations Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations Computer and Mathematical Occupations Personal Care and Service Occupations Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations Protective Service Occupations Projected 2020 NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only. 32

2010-20, in thousands Registered nurses 711.9 Cashiers 250.

33 Employment Growth vs. Replacement Needs Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected , in thousands Registered nurses Cashiers Job openings for two occupations, projected , in thousands From growth Replacement needs Registered Nurses ,207.4 Cashiers , ,

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected 2010-20

7 Food preparation and serving related 5,102.

training, and library Construction and extraction Personal care and service 3,597.

34 Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected Office and administrative support Sales and related 6, ,449.7 Food preparation and serving related 5,102.7 Transportation and material moving Healthcare practitioners and technical Education, training, and library Construction and extraction Personal care and service 3, , , , ,582.9 Growth Management Business and financial operations Production 2, , ,231.2 Replacement needs (Continued on next slide) 34

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected 2010-20 (Continued) Healthcare support Installation,

social service Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media Architecture and engineering Life, physical, and social science Legal

35 Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected (Continued) Healthcare support Installation, maintenance, and repair Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance Computer and mathematical Protective service Community and social service Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media Architecture and engineering Life, physical, and social science Legal 2, , , , , , , Growth Replacement needs Farming, fishing, and forestry

Fastest Growing Occupations Percent change,

stonemasons, and tile and marble setters 60.

0% $29,710 Reinforcing iron and rebar workers 48.

36 Fastest Growing Occupations Percent change, projected Median annual wages, May 2010 Personal care aides 70.5% $19,640 Home health aides 69.4% $20,560 Biomedical engineers 61.7% $81,540 Helpers--brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters 60.1% $27,780 Helpers--carpenters 55.7% $25,760 Veterinary technologists and technicians 52.0% $29,710 Reinforcing iron and rebar workers 48.6% $38,430 Physical therapist assistants 45.7% $49,690 Helpers--pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters 45.4% $26,740 Meeting, convention, and event planners 43.7% $45,260 36

37 Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May 2010 Registered nurses Retail salespersons Home health aides $64,690 $20,670 $20,560 Personal care aides $19,640 Office clerks, general $26,610 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food $17,950 Customer service representatives $30,460 Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand $37,770 $23,460 Postsecondary teachers $45,690 37

Occupations with the Most Job Openings Thousands of job openings, projected

Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Office Clerks, General

Representatives 1,324.3 1,207.4 1,146.5 1,011.5 980.2 959.

38 Occupations with the Most Job Openings Thousands of job openings, projected Median annual Wages, May 2010 Retail Salespersons Cashiers 1, ,775.9 $20,670 $18,500 Waiters and Waitresses Registered Nurses Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Office Clerks, General Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand Customer Service Representatives 1, , , , $18,330 $64,690 $17,950 $26,610 $23,460 $30,460 Home Health Aides Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners Growth Replacement needs $20,560 $22,210 38

Fastest Declining Occupations Median annual wages, May

$53,100 $38,970 $60,300 $20,600 $24,920 $23,490 $25,870

mail sorters, processors, and processing machine

patternmakers Postmasters and mail superintendents

including answering service Textile cutting machine

39 Fastest Declining Occupations Median annual wages, May 2010 Percent change, projected $26,280 $53,080 $53,100 $38,970 $60,300 $20,600 $24,920 $23,490 $25,870 $33, % -48.5% -48.2% -35.6% -27.8% -25.8% -23.3% -21.8% -18.2% -17.9% Shoe machine operators and tenders Postal Service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators Postal Service clerks Fabric and apparel patternmakers Postmasters and mail superintendents Sewing machine operators Switchboard operators, including answering service Textile cutting machine setters, operators, and tenders Textile knitting and weaving machine setters, operators, and tenders Semiconductor processors 39

40 Education and Training Classification New classification system introduced with projections Consists of three categories of information for each occupation: Typical education needed for entry Work experience in a related occupation Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation 40

Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category:

Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Postsecondary

jobs 4,409.7 1,986.0 22,171.1 7,994.6 6,524.0 811.

$63,430 $61,590 $34,220 $44,350 High school diploma or

41 Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category: 2010 Doctoral or professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Postsecondary non-degree award Some college, no degree Thousands of jobs 4, , , , , Median annual Wages, May 2010 $87,500 $60,240 $63,430 $61,590 $34,220 $44,350 High school diploma or equivalent Less than high school 37, ,089.6 $34,180 $20,070 41

Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category Doctoral or professional degree Percent change, projected 2010-20 Master's degree Average, all occupations = 14.3% 19.

42 Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category Doctoral or professional degree Percent change, projected Master's degree Average, all occupations = 14.3% 19.9% 21.7% Bachelor's degree 16.5% Associate's degree Postsecondary non-degree award Some college, no degree High school diploma or equivalent Less than high school 18.0% 16.9% 17.5% 12.2% 14.1% 42

Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education Category Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20 Doctoral or professional degree Master's degree 431.2 876.

43 Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education Category Thousands of jobs, projected Doctoral or professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree 3,651.6 Associate's degree 1,440.0 Postsecondary non-degree award 1,100.9 Some college, no degree High school diploma or equivalent 7,576.1 Less than high school 5,

44 Doctoral or Professional Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth W T Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May 2010 N N Postsecondary teachers $62,050 N I/R Physicians and surgeons $166,400 N N Physical therapists 77.4 $76,310 N N Lawyers 73.6 $112,760 N N Pharmacists 69.7 $111,570 N N Medical scientists, except epidemiologists 36.4 $76,700 N I/R Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists 33.7 $66,810 N I/R Dentists, general 27.6 $141,040 N N Veterinarians 22.0 $82,040 N N Chiropractors 14.9 $67,200 44

45 Master s Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth W T Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May 2010 Educational, guidance, school, and N N 53.4 $53,380 vocational counselors N N Healthcare social workers 51.2 $47,230 N I/R Mental health counselors 43.6 $38,150 N N Rehabilitation counselors 36.6 $32,350 N N Occupational therapists 36.4 $72,320 N N Speech-language pathologists 28.8 $66,920 Education administrators, 1-5 N 27.8 $83,710 postsecondary 5+ N Instructional coordinators 27.3 $58,830 N N Physician assistants 24.7 $86, N Education administrators, elementary and secondary school 23.2 $86,970 45

46 High School Diploma Occupations with the Largest Job Growth W T Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May 2010 N S Office clerks, general $26,610 N S Customer service representatives $30, S Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers $37,770 N S Childcare workers $19,300 N M Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks $34,030 N S Receptionists and information clerks $25,240 N M Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products $52,440 N M Medical secretaries $30, N First-line supervisors of office and administrative support workers $47,460 N A Carpenters $39,530 46

Education pays Unemployment rate, 2011 Median weekly earnings, 2011 2.5 Doctoral degree $1,551 2.4 Professional degree $1,665 3.6 Master's degree $1,263 4.9 Bachelor's degree $1,053 6.

47 Education pays Unemployment rate, 2011 Median weekly earnings, Doctoral degree $1, Professional degree $1, Master's degree $1, Bachelor's degree $1, Associate degree $ Some College, no degree $ High school diploma $ Less than high school diploma $451 Average, all occupations = 7.6 NOTE: Data for persons aged 25 and over. Average, all occupations = $797 47

48 Contact Information Kristina Bartsch James Franklin Employment Projections program

Highest Ranked Occupations

Highest Ranked Occupations Top 50 Occupations (5-Digit) in Bradley and Surrounding Counties EMSI Q2 2015 Data Set 225 Keith Street SW Cleveland, Tennessee 37311 423.472.6587 EMSI Q2 2015 Data Set www.economicmodeling.com