Regional Scan & Program Demand Report. James Sprunt Community College

Transcription

1 Regional Scan & Program Demand Report James Sprunt Community College

2 Contents Executive Summary Regional Population Summary Population: Detailed Data Educational Attainment Projected High School Graduations Regional Industry Summary Regional Industries: Detailed Data Regional Occupation Summary Regional Occupations: Detailed Data Occupation Demand & Program Comparison About EMSI & the Data PREPARED FOR: James Sprunt Community College REGION DEFINITION (COUNTIES): Duplin Key Terms and Concepts Understanding the following terms is crucial to interpreting the data included in this report. Introduction This report is designed to integrate and analyze data from multiple sources with the goal of helping community and technical colleges with their strategic planning efforts. The overall goal is to help colleges align their program offerings with the demographic and economic characteristics of their service regions. To do this, the report provides an overview of the region s population, economy, and workforce, using state and national comparisons where appropriate to highlight unique regional characteristics. The industry and occupation employment numbers are based on numerous published sources from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of the Census, and the National Center for Education Statistics. In addition, the report integrates industry/occupation data and projections created by the State of North Carolina, as well as neighboring states if a service region extends outside North Carolina. These data sources have been specially processed and harmonized to provide more complete and detailed data than any individual source used. For more information, see the final page of this report. Earnings: For industries, 2006 total annual earnings per worker is reported; these earnings include wages, salaries, profits, and benefits. Occupational earnings are reported as 2006 median hourly wage only. Industry: A category of business activity defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Jobs: Full-time and part-time positions held by proprietors and payroll employees in the public or private sector. May exceed actual worker count. Location Quotient (LQ): A measure of how "concentrated" a particular industry, occupation, or demographic group is in a region as compared to a larger reference region, e.g., state or nation. Occupation: A category of workers defined by the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Openings (Annual): The sum of new jobs and replacement jobs for a given occupation. Programs: Courses of postsecondary study defined by CIP (Classification of Instructional Programs) codes. Projections: Estimates of future job or population numbers based on (1) recent regional trends and (2) published forecasts created by a consensus of state and federal agencies Replacement Jobs: The estimated number of job openings in an occupation due to retirement, turnover, and other factors aside from job growth. Based on national percentages by occupation.

3 Executive Summary Regional Demographics From 2007 to 2013, the region can expect the total population to change by 450 persons, or 0.6%. The age groups with the highest growth are: Age Group in Persons 60 to 64 years to 59 years to 24 years to 14 years to 69 years 157 Similarly, the racial/ethnic groups with the highest expected population growth are: Group White Hispanic in Persons Critical Occupations in HighGrowth Industries The following occupations show the most growth within the top ten high-growth industries. Detailed tables begin on p. 1. Retail salespersons Home health aides Cashiers, except gaming Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners Child care workers Personal and home care aides Stock clerks and order fillers Maintenance and repair workers, general Elementary school teachers, except special education Preschool teachers, except special education 1,343 Two or more races 27 Asian 16 High-Growth Occupations (Across All Industries) Detailed tables are on pages 4 6. Educational Attainment & H.S. Graduations Total regional attainment of a college degree (any level) is below average compared to the state and below average compared to the nation. From 2007 to 2013, the total number of high school graduates in the region is expected to decline by 26. Detailed tables are on pages 7 through 10. These occupations show the most total growth across all industries. Detail table is on p. 26. Registered nurses Real estate sales agents First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Real estate brokers Carpenters Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer Animal trainers Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Construction managers Automotive service technicians and mechanics High-Growth Industries The following industries show the highest total job growth from 2007 to 2013: Local government Animal slaughtering and processing Department stores Home health care services Business associations Support activities for animal production Janitorial services Supermarkets and other grocery stores Lessors of residential buildings Child day care services College Programs For a quick comparison of the college s enrollment in programs related to the region s high-growth occupations, turn to page 2. 3

4 Regional Population Summary Knowing regional demographics can help colleges provide more targeted services. For example, regions with an aging population may require more classes for older residents to update their job skills. And, of course, a projected rise or decline in total population has serious implications for college enrollment, funding, and facilities planning. Note that nearly all regional numbers are compared to state or national averages this gives an idea of the unique situation facing the region. Regional Comparison TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE Total regional population change is below the state average Total Region State 2013 Total % 52,275 52, %,957,3 9,741,345 73,462 CHANGE IN POPULATION AGE 55+ The percentage of people age 55 and over in the region is expected to rise. It is above average compared to the state and below average compared to the nation. Age Total in State % of Region % of State % of Nation ,161 2,06,270 23% 23% 23% ,33 2,463,95 25% 25% 26% 2007 Total Region State Nation White, Non-Hispanic 27,41-2% 7% 3% White Hispanic 10,1 13% 25% 14% 330 2% 16% 10% 13,56-4% % 5% American Indian or Alaska Native 136 % 6% Asian % 1 13% 51 16% 17% % % 17% 12% Black or African American Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races 2007 LQ (State) 70 to 74 years to 29 years to 9 years to 69 years to 14 years 1.06 Above-average presence compared to nation: CHANGE BY RACE, Non-White Hispanic These tables show which regional demographic groups have an above-average presence in the region compared to the state and nation. This is calculated using location quotients or LQs (see p. 2). An LQ of 1.0 indicates a group accounts for an average percentage of the total population. AGE GROUPS Above-average presence compared to state: Total in Region Race/Ethnicity Concentrated Groups Age 2007 LQ (Nation) 70 to 74 years to 34 years to 9 years to 69 years to 29 years 1.06 RACE/ETHNICITY GROUPS Above-average presence compared to state: Group 2007 LQ (State) White Hispanic 3.0 Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 1.97 Non-White Hispanic 1.31 Above-average presence compared to nation: Group 2007 LQ (Nation) Black or African American 2.16 White Hispanic Note: for regions that include areas in multiple states, state data uses the sum or average of all states involved. 4

5 Population: Detailed Data Population by Age Details Age 2007 Population 2013 Population Under 5 years 3,46 3,59 5 to 9 years 3,02 3, to 14 years 3,651 3,54 15 to 19 years 3,712 3, to 24 years 2,794 3, to 29 years 3,40 2,93 30 to 34 years 3,731 3, to 39 years 3,714 3, to 44 years 3,793 3, to 49 years 3,705 3, to 54 years 3,526 3, to 59 years 3, to 64 years 65 to 69 years % 2007 LQ (State) 2007 LQ (Nation) 13 0% % % % % % % % % % % , % ,37 2, % ,021 2, % to 74 years 1,697 1, % to 79 years 1,272 1, % to 4 years % years and over ,275 52, % Total Source: (9/2007) 5

6 Population by Race/Ethnicity Details Race/Ethnicity 2007 Population 2013 Population White, Non-Hispanic 27,41 26,969 White Hispanic 10,1 11, Non-White Hispanic Black or African American % 2007 LQ (State) 2007 LQ (Nation) % ,343 13% % ,56 13, % American Indian or Alaska Native % Asian % % % Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races Source: (9/2007) 6

7 Educational Attainment In today s competitive knowledge economy, advanced education, training, and skills are more vital than ever. Studies also show that higher education levels are strongly tied to higher earnings, lower unemployment rates, and improved lifestyles. Regional educational attainment levels help colleges identify educational gaps in the region s workforce (especially in comparison to state and national levels). This helps state, college, and regional policymakers form a targeted plan to increase workforce education. Note that attainment is only tracked for persons age 25 and older. Educational Attainment Summary In the region, college degree attainment is below average compared to the state and below average compared to the nation. % of Region % of State % of Nation Less Than High School Diploma 26.6% 15.% 14.5% High School Diploma or Some College 53.4% 52.0% 50.7% College Degree 20.0% 32.3% 34.7% Educational Attainment Totals, Detail Educational Level Less Than 9th Grade 9th Grade to 12th Grade 2007 Total (age 25+) % of Region (age 25+) % of State (age 25+) % of Nation (age 25+) 3, % 5.3% 5.5% 5, % 10.5% 9.0% 11, % 29.5% 2.7% Some College 6, % 22.5% 22.0% Associate's Degree 2, % 7.1% 6.4% Degree 2,965.6% 17.1% 1.0% Graduate Degree and Higher 1,319 3.%.1% 10.3% 34, % 100% 100% High School Diploma Source: (9/2007) 7

8 Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity COMPARISON OF COLLEGE DEGREE ATTAINMENT TO STATE AND NATION Differences are expressed in percentage points. Positive numbers indicate higher attainment levels in the region compared to the state or nation; negative numbers indicate lower attainment levels in the region. Difference in College Attainment (State) Difference in College Attainment (Nation) White, Non-Hispanic White Hispanic Non-White Hispanic Black or African American American Indian or Alaska Native Asian Race/Ethnicity Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races REGIONAL ATTAINMENT BY RACE/ETHNICITY, DETAIL 2007 Persons (age 25+) Less Than High School HS Diploma or Some College College Degree 19,720 3,599 11,235 4,5 5,362 3,25 1, ,96 2,111 5,442 1,416 American Indian or Alaska Native Asian Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races ,469 9,165 1,417 6,7 Race/Ethnicity White, Non-Hispanic White Hispanic Non-White Hispanic Black or African American Source: (9/2007)

9 Educational Attainment by Gender In the region, females have lower high school attainment rates and higher college degree attainment rates compared to males Total (age 25+) Less Than High School High School Diploma College Degree Males 16, % 17.1% Females 17, % % Source: (9/2007) 9

10 Projected High School Graduations By estimating the total number and demographic makeup of future high school graduates, colleges can be prepared to market their programs effectively to the next generation of students. If the total pool of graduates is declining, for example, then colleges must be able to recruit a greater percentage of them in order to maintain enrollments. Snapshot of Graduations by Race/Ethnicity, 2007 Projected Graduations by Race/Ethnicity Race/Ethnicity 2007 Graduations 2013 Graduations % White, Non-Hispanic White Hispanic Non-White Hispanic Black or African American % % % % American Indian or Alaska Native % Asian % Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander % Two or more races % % Projected Graduations by Gender Gender 2007 Graduations 2013 Graduations % Males % Females % Source: (9/2007) 10

11 Regional Industry Summary Part of a college s mission is to support the workforce needs of vital regional industries. By using several different metrics for identifying such industries, this section of the report provides a map of the region s economy, thus helping colleges allocate workforce training resources. The listing of critical occupations within high-growth industries (right column) highlights high-growth occupations in these industries. Because these occupations are not filtered by education level, they may by served by non-credit continuing education, for-credit certificate or associate s track courses, or courses designed for transfer to four-year institutions. Industries with the Most Jobs Animal slaughtering and processing Local government Crop and animal production State government Limited-service eating places Critical Occupations in HighGrowth Industries Local government: High-Growth Industries Local government Animal slaughtering and processing Department stores Home health care services Business associations Elementary school teachers, except special education Teacher assistants Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education Registered nurses Animal slaughtering and processing: Concentrated Industries These industries have an above-average share of total regional employment (compared to the U.S.): Knit fabric mills Fiber, yarn, and thread mills Animal slaughtering and processing Artificial fibers and filaments manufacturing Fruit and vegetable canning and drying Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers Helpers--Production workers Packers and packagers, hand First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers Maintenance and repair workers, general Department stores: Retail salespersons Cashiers, except gaming Stock clerks and order fillers First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Customer service representatives Home health care services: Competitive Industries These industries are outperforming national trends: Department stores Support activities for animal production Fiber, yarn, and thread mills Business associations All other general purpose machinery mfg. Home health aides Personal and home care aides Registered nurses Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses Business associations: General and operations managers Business operation specialists, all other Executive secretaries and administrative assistants Maintenance and repair workers, general Office clerks, general 11

12 Regional Industries: Detailed Data Industry Sectors, Region and State, The following table summarizes the region s economy in comparison to the state s. Broad industry sectors are sorted by total 2007 jobs. REGION NAICS Code Description STATE % EPW State 2007 State 2013 State % State EPW -1% $30,11 571,52 556,220-3% $60,651 6% $3,551 14,295 60,222 6% $50, $20,951 9,45,26-10% $17,591 2, % $21, ,05 631,034 $27,432 2, % $22, ,364 62,46 23% $40,919 1,996 2, % $17,7 299,546 33,24 13% $21,530 Construction 1,56 2, % $34,622 33, ,625 5% $41,402 Accommodation and food services 1,305 1, % $11, , ,026 10% $16,166 Administrative and waste services 940 1, % $22, , ,936 1 $24, Transportation and warehousing 61 1, $37,44 173,261 17,672 % $46, Wholesale trade % $33, , ,256 $60, Professional and technical services $21, , ,10 17% $55, Finance and insurance $49, ,026 21,027 7% $79, Real estate and rental and leasing % $37,013 16, ,970 17% $40, Arts, entertainment, and recreation $21,911 9,97 104,593 16% $29, Management of companies and enterprises % $50,92 75,41 3,732 11% $91, Information % $70,119 9,15 107,752 21% $66, Educational services % $13,595 95,99 119,933 25% $30, Utilities % $63,426 14,703 13,907-5% $92, Mining % $5,620 6,125 6,644 % $62,50 27,592 29,760 2,16 % $27,921 5,3,069 5,925,93 10% $42, Jobs 2013 Jobs Manufacturing 5,57 5,1-39 Government 3,33 4, Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 3,493 3, Retail trade 2,53 62 Health care and social assistance 2,069 1 Other services, except public administration Source: (9/2007) EPW stands for earnings per worker, which is the total wage, salary, bonuses, and other compensation paid in the industry divided by the number of workers. Note that for regions including areas in multiple states, the State values are the sum or average of the values for all states involved. Industry sectors and specific industries in the following sections are listed by NAICS code. For more information, see 12

13 Regional Industries Providing the Most Jobs, 2007 This section shows industries at a much greater level of detail than the sectors on the previous page. NAICS Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % 2006 EPW Animal slaughtering and processing 3,3 4, % $23,19 Local government 2,93 3, % $37,670 11A00 Crop and animal production 2,375 1, % $15, State government % $37, Limited-service eating places % $10, Business associations % $20, Support activities for crop production $24, Full-service restaurants % $11, Fiber, yarn, and thread mills % $30, Supermarkets and other grocery stores % $1, Nursing care facilities % $1, Home health care services % $16, Fruit and vegetable canning and drying % $26, Private households $6, Support activities for animal production % $45, Child day care services % $13, Department stores % $1, Gasoline stations with convenience stores % $24, Janitorial services % $1, General freight trucking, local % $30,73 Source: (9/2007) 13

14 Highest Growth Regional Industries, These industries are projected to add the most total jobs. NAICS Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % 2006 EPW Local government 2,93 3, % $37,670 Animal slaughtering and processing 3,3 4, % $23,19 Department stores % $1, Home health care services % $16, Business associations % $20, Support activities for animal production % $45, Janitorial services % $1, Supermarkets and other grocery stores % $1, Lessors of residential buildings % $41, Child day care services % $13, General freight trucking, local % $30, Full-service restaurants % $11, Community care facilities for the elderly % $16, All other general purpose machinery mfg % $139, Hotels and motels, except casino hotels % $14, All other specialty trade contractors % $24, Offices of physicians % $51, State government % $37, Support activities for crop production $24, Limited-service eating places % $10,5 Source: (9/2007) 14

15 Most Concentrated Regional Industries, Location quotients (LQs) are a way of measuring an industry s regional concentration. A region with an average presence (or concentration) of a certain industry, compared to the national economy, will have an LQ of 1.0 for that industry. High-LQ industries are generally ones that are important to the region s economic base that is, they bring money into the region rather than circulating what is already there. As such, they are important targets for retention, expansion, and workforce development efforts. Note: circle size indicates number of jobs in the industry. NAICS Code Description 2013 Jobs 2007 LQ Knit fabric mills Fiber, yarn, and thread mills Animal slaughtering and processing Artificial fibers and filaments manufacturing 3,3 4, Fruit and vegetable canning and drying Petrochemical manufacturing Forest nursery and gathering forest products Support activities for animal production Animal food manufacturing 1391 Business associations Jobs % in LQ 2006 EPW 1.55 $33, % $30, % $23, % $26, % $26, % $63, % $49, % $45, % $64, % $20,29 Rolling and drawing of purchased steel % $19,959 Packaged frozen food merchant wholesalers % $33,392 Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy mfg % $43, Support activities for crop production % $24, Logging % $34, Other cut and sew apparel manufacturing % $77, Starch and vegetable oil manufacturing % $237,451 11A00 Crop and animal production 2,375 1, % $15, Hunting and trapping % $45, Farm supplies merchant wholesalers % $34,550 Source: (9/2007) 15

16 Most Competitive Regional Industries, The regional competitiveness of an industry can be quantified using the standard shift share method. This method generates a competitiveness effect for the industry, which is basically regional job growth in the industry that exceeded national trends. These national trends include the percent growth of the U.S. economy and the percent growth of the given industry at the national level. The higher the competitiveness effect, the more the regional industry is outperforming national averages. Industries with a high competitiveness effect can give clues about the region s comparative advantages, and are prime targets for regional workforce initiatives. INDUSTRIES WITH HIGHEST COMPETITIVE EFFECT NAICS Code Description Job Ind. Mix Effect Natl. Effect Expected Competitive Effect Department stores Support activities for animal production Fiber, yarn, and thread mills 1391 Business associations All other general purpose machinery mfg Supermarkets and other grocery stores Lessors of residential buildings Janitorial services General freight trucking, local Other direct selling establishments Home health care services Hotels and motels, except casino hotels Interior design services Gasoline stations with convenience stores Portfolio management Fruit and vegetable canning and drying Commercial machinery repair and maintenance

17 Industries With Highest Competitive Effect (Cont.) NAICS Code Description Job Ind. Mix Effect Natl. Effect Expected Competitive Effect Medical equipment merchant wholesalers Other plastics product manufacturing Private households Source: (9/2007) NOTE ON SHIFT SHARE TERMINOLOGY In shift share analysis, expected job growth is based on the total regional industry jobs at the beginning of the timeframe, the regional jobs that could be attributed to the growth rate of the national economy during the timeframe ( national growth effect ), and the regional jobs that could be attributed to the growth rate of the same industry at the national level during the timeframe ( industry mix effect ). The difference between this expected job change and actual job change is called the regional competitiveness effect. 17

18 Critical Occupations in High-Growth Industries The following tables show the highest-growth occupations within each of the highest-growth regional industries from 2007 to They provide a business-oriented view of the most in-demand jobs over that timeframe, and the demand-driven college will seek to align its offerings accordingly. Many jobs found here, especially with an education level of short-term or moderate-term on-the-job training (ST OJT or ), are likely to be good candidates for industry-oriented continuing education programs. Education level abbreviations: : Short-term on-the-job training; : Moderate-term on-the-job training; LT OJT: Longterm on-the-job training; : Work experience in a related field; PS Award: Postsecondary award; Associate's: Associate's degree; : degree; DG + Exp.: Degree plus work experience; Master's: Master's degree; Doctoral: Doctoral degree; Prof. DG: First professional degree Critical Occupations: Local government Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Elementary school teachers, except special education 26 $16.60 Teacher assistants 15 $7.61 Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education Occupation 11 $15.9 Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education 9 $15.67 Registered nurses $21.16 Associate's Special education teachers, preschool, kindergarten, and elementary school $15.72 Fire fighters 7 $13.22 LT OJT Police and sheriff's patrol officers 7 $12.57 LT OJT Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 5 $7.17 Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 5 $10.95 PS Award Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Animal slaughtering and processing Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers 25 $7.66 Helpers--Production workers 16 $.43 Packers and packagers, hand 15 $6.43 First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers 14 $1.36 Maintenance and repair workers, general 13 $13.15 Team assemblers 12 $9.00 Slaughterers and meat packers 12 $.34 Industrial machinery mechanics $19.09 LT OJT Extruding, forming, pressing, and compacting machine setters, operators, and tenders 7 $9.61 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 5 $7.17 Occupation Source: (9/2007) 1

19 Critical Occupations: Department stores Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Retail salespersons 92 $7.75 Cashiers, except gaming 27 $6.23 Stock clerks and order fillers 25 $.14 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 10 $12.27 Customer service representatives $10.50 Shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks $10.24 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food $6.14 Pharmacy technicians $9.61 Pharmacists $41.20 Prof. DG First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers $15.1 Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Home health aides 90 $7.03 Personal and home care aides 30 $6.33 Registered nurses 14 $21.16 Associate's Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 11 $9.07 PS Award 6 $14.25 PS Award Occupation Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Home health care services Occupation Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses Psychiatric aides $7.09 Medical and health services managers $25.70 DG + Exp. Physical therapists $29.27 Master's General and operations managers $31.24 DG + Exp. Office clerks, general $.13 Source: (9/2007) 19

20 Critical Occupations: Business associations Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) General and operations managers 9 $31.24 DG + Exp. Business operation specialists, all other 9 $20.10 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants $12.22 Maintenance and repair workers, general 7 $13.15 Office clerks, general 7 $.13 Public relations specialists 7 $15.41 Customer service representatives 5 $10.50 Receptionists and information clerks 5 $.4 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 5 $7.17 $10.93 Occupation Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks Average Education Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Support activities for animal production Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Animal trainers 24 $7.45 Nonfarm animal caretakers 19 $6.70 Farmers and ranchers 13 $6.15 LT OJT 5 $13.46 DG + Exp. Supervisors, farming, fishing, and forestry workers $17.29 Conservation scientists $1.57 Foresters $1.0 Managers, all other $24.61 Forest and conservation workers $7.77 Commercial pilots $20.36 PS Award Occupation Farm, ranch, and other agricultural managers Source: (9/2007) 20

21 Critical Occupations: Janitorial services Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 26 $7.17 Maids and housekeeping cleaners 1 $6.15 Building cleaning workers, all other 15 $.29 9 $9.92 Occupation First-line supervisors/managers of housekeeping and janitorial workers Laundry and dry-cleaning workers $7.07 Managers, all other $24.61 Pest control workers $9.23 General and operations managers $31.24 DG + Exp. Chief executives $60.09 DG + Exp. Maintenance and repair workers, general $13.15 Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Supermarkets and other grocery stores Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education 22 $6.23 Packers and packagers, hand $6.43 Stock clerks and order fillers 7 $.14 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 6 $6.14 Food preparation workers 6 $6.4 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers $12.27 Butchers and meat cutters $9.73 LT OJT Retail salespersons $7.75 Customer service representatives $10.50 First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers $10.69 Occupation Cashiers, except gaming Source: (9/2007) 21

22 Critical Occupations: Lessors of residential buildings Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Real estate sales agents 20 $16.0 PS Award Real estate brokers 20 $14.57 Property, real estate, and community association managers 12 $17.45 Appraisers and assessors of real estate $15.03 PS Award Maintenance and repair workers, general $13.15 Chief executives $60.09 DG + Exp. Building cleaning workers, all other $.29 Counter and rental clerks $.40 Maids and housekeeping cleaners $6.15 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners $7.17 Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education 36 $6.30 Preschool teachers, except special education 23 $6.6 PS Award Teacher assistants $7.61 Education administrators, preschool and child care center/program $15.52 DG + Exp. Kindergarten teachers, except special education $16.56 Bus drivers, school $.7 Education administrators, all other $23.76 DG + Exp. Education administrators, elementary and secondary school $24.9 DG + Exp. First-line supervisors/managers of personal service workers $11.11 Education administrators, postsecondary $22.70 DG + Exp. Occupation Average Education Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Child day care services Occupation Child care workers Source: (9/2007) 22

23 Regional Occupation Summary Employment outlooks organized by occupation provide a more workforce-oriented (rather than industryoriented) perspective. These are jobs that are in demand across all industries in the region. All tables except those showing major occupation groups have been filtered to include only occupations with an average education level between Moderate-term on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. These jobs can be well-served through the development of for-credit certificate, associate s, or transfer programs. Occupation Groups Providing the Most Jobs The major occupation groups accounting for the most total regional jobs in 2007 are: Production occupations Sales and related occupations Transportation and material moving occupations Office and administrative support occupations Management occupations Specific Occupations Providing the Most Jobs The largest specific occupations are: Farmers and ranchers First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks Maintenance and repair workers, general Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer High-Growth Occupations The occupations with the most total new jobs from 2007 to 2013 are: Registered nurses Real estate sales agents First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Real estate brokers Carpenters Occupations with Most Total Openings The occupations with the most estimated openings (new jobs plus replacement jobs) are: Registered nurses Maintenance and repair workers, general Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer Elementary school teachers, except special education 23

24 Regional Occupations: Detailed Data Major Occupation Groups, Region and State, The following table summarizes regional occupations by major group, sorted by total 2007 jobs. REGION STATE SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs State 2007 State 2013 State Median Earnings 51 Production occupations 3,475 3, % 559 $ , ,02 $ Sales and related occupations 2,943 3, % 501 $ , ,016 $ Transportation and material moving occupations 2,922 3, % 535 $ , ,474 $ Office and administrative support occupations 2,65 3, % 4 $ , ,171 $ Management occupations 2,05 2, % 244 $1.52 3, ,146 $ Construction and extraction occupations 1,54 1, % 213 $ , ,597 $ Food preparation and serving related occupations 1,44 1, % 437 $ , ,20 $ Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1,464 1, % 252 $ , ,240 $ Education, training, and library occupations 1,35 1, % 23 $ , ,624 $ Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 1,261 1, % 194 $ ,06 259,209 $ Personal care and service occupations 1,261 1, % 19 $ , ,29 $ Healthcare support occupations 79 1, % 217 $ , ,015 $ Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations % 194 $ ,774 21,557 $ Business and financial operations occupations % 90 $ ,74 24,111 $ Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations % 32 $ ,11 127,996 $ Protective service occupations $ , ,711 $ Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations % 55 $ ,729 15,215 $ Community and social services occupations % 51 $ ,709 79,76 $ Life, physical, and social science occupations $ ,52 63,97 $ Computer and mathematical science occupations % 32 $ , ,505 $ Architecture and engineering occupations $ ,679 75,53 $ Military Occupations % 19 $ , ,061 $ Legal occupations % $ ,915 35,299 $ ,592 29,760 2,16 % 4,72 $ ,3,065 5,925,936 $16.1 % Repl. Median Jobs Earnings Source: (9/2007) Note: For regions including areas in multiple states, state values are the sum or average of all states involved. 24

25 Top-Ranked Occupations by Total Jobs, 2007 Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderateterm on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % Repl. Jobs Median Earnings Education Level Farmers and ranchers 1,091 1, % 24 $6.15 LT OJT First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers % 45 $ Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks % 53 $ Maintenance and repair workers, general % 77 $ Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer % 53 $ Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants $9.07 PS Award Carpenters % 44 $11.47 LT OJT Butchers and meat cutters % 53 $9.73 LT OJT Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive % 34 $ Elementary school teachers, except special education % 59 $ Team assemblers $ First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers % 37 $ Registered nurses $21.16 Associate's Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products % 52 $ First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers % 2 $ Construction managers % 20 $ Industrial machinery mechanics % 21 $19.09 LT OJT Animal trainers % 13 $ Managers, all other % 22 $ Construction laborers % 17 $7.0 Source: (9/2007) 25

26 Top-Ranked Occupations by Total Growth, Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderateterm on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % Repl. Jobs Median Earnings Education Level Registered nurses $21.16 Associate's Real estate sales agents % 5 $16.0 PS Award First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers % 45 $ Real estate brokers % 1 $ Carpenters % 44 $11.47 LT OJT Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer % 53 $ Animal trainers % 13 $ Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants $9.07 PS Award Construction managers % 20 $ Automotive service technicians and mechanics % 41 $13.17 PS Award Preschool teachers, except special education % 36 $6.6 PS Award Elementary school teachers, except special education % 59 $ Customer service representatives % 32 $ Maintenance and repair workers, general % 77 $ Accountants and auditors % 2 $ Property, real estate, and community association managers $ Team assemblers $ Emergency medical technicians and paramedics % 20 $10.95 PS Award Painters, construction and maintenance % 19 $ First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers % 2 $17.2 Source: (9/2007) 26

27 Top-Ranked Occupations by New + Repl. Jobs, Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderateterm on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs New + Repl. Jobs Median Earnings Education Level Registered nurses $21.16 Associate's Maintenance and repair workers, general $ Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants $9.07 PS Award Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer $ Elementary school teachers, except special education $ First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers $ Carpenters $11.47 LT OJT Team assemblers $ Automotive service technicians and mechanics $13.17 PS Award Preschool teachers, except special education $6.6 PS Award Customer service representatives $ Butchers and meat cutters $9.73 LT OJT Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products $ Accountants and auditors $ Slaughterers and meat packers $ Construction managers $ First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers $ Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks $ Executive secretaries and administrative assistants $ Animal trainers $7.45 Source: (9/2007) 27

28 Occupation Demand & Program Comparison This section compares regional occupations with the most annual openings to the college s current enrollment by program, with the goal of indicating where the college might look to increase its capacity. The occupations are taken directly from the "Top-Ranked Occupations by New + Repl. Jobs" table on the previous page. Related programs associated with occupations are identified using a crosswalk developed by the U.S. Department of Education with some customizations by EMSI. College enrollment numbers by CIP code are provided by the North Carolina Community College System. Summary: High-Demand Occupations and Related Enrollment Avg. Annual Openings Median Hourly Earnings Annual Enrollment at College, All Related Programs Registered nurses 20 $ Maintenance and repair workers, general 17 $13.15 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 17 $9.07 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 15 $11.77 Elementary school teachers, except special education 14 $16.60 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 13 $12.27 Carpenters 13 $11.47 Team assemblers 12 $9.00 Automotive service technicians and mechanics 12 $ Preschool teachers, except special education 11 $ Customer service representatives 10 $10.50 Butchers and meat cutters Description $9.73 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products 9 $15.37 Accountants and auditors 9 $24.55 Slaughterers and meat packers $.34 First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers $ Construction managers $ Executive secretaries and administrative assistants $ Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks $ First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers $ Source: (9/2007) Note that many occupations have multiple related programs and vice versa, so students enrolled in a program may be included in more than one row in the table above. Average annual openings is total new and replacement jobs divided by the number of years in the given timeframe. 2

29 Detail: High-Demand Occupations and Related Program Enrollment Occupation Registered nurses Avg. Annual Openings 20 Median Hourly Earnings Related Programs $21.16 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Annual Enrollment at College 95 Adult Health Nurse/Nursing Public Health/Community Nurse/Nursing Nurse Anesthetist Perioperative/Operating Room and Surgical Nurse/Nursing Family Practice Nurse/Nurse Practitioner Maternal/Child Health and Neonatal Nurse/Nursing Clinical Nurse Specialist Nurse Midwife/Nursing Midwifery Critical Care Nursing Pre-Nursing Studies Nursing Science (MS, PhD) Occupational and Environmental Health Nursing Health/Medical Preparatory Programs, Other Pediatric Nurse/Nursing Nursing, Other Nursing/Registered Nurse (RN, ASN, BSN, MSN) 95 Psychiatric/Mental Health Nurse/Nursing Maintenance and repair workers, general 17 $13.15 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Building/Construction Site Management/Manager Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 17 $9.07 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Nurse/Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assistant Health Aide Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 15 $11.77 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operation Elementary school teachers, except special education 14 $16.60 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 25 Montessori Teacher Education Waldorf/Steiner Teacher Education Education, General Elementary Education and Teaching 25 Teacher Education, Multiple Levels First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 13 $12.27 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Floriculture/Floristry Operations and Management Specialized Merchandising, Sales, and Marketing Operations, Other Retailing and Retail Operations Selling Skills and Sales Operations Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services, Other E-Commerce/Electronic Commerce Special Products Marketing Operations Consumer Merchandising/Retailing Management Carpenters 13 $11.47 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Carpentry/Carpenter Team assemblers 12 $9.00 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 29

30 Occupation Automotive service technicians and mechanics Avg. Annual Openings 12 Median Hourly Earnings Related Programs $13.17 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Annual Enrollment at College 2 Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Technology/Technician Medium/Heavy Vehicle and Truck Technology/Technician Alternative Fuel Vehicle Technology/Technician Automotive Engineering Technology/Technician Automobile/Automotive Mechanics Technology/Technician Preschool teachers, except special education 11 $6.6 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Child Care and Support Services Management Waldorf/Steiner Teacher Education Education, General Kindergarten/Preschool Education and Teaching Early Childhood Education and Teaching 133 Montessori Teacher Education Customer service representatives 10 $10.50 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Receptionist Customer Service Support/Call Center/Teleservice Operation Butchers and meat cutters 10 $9.73 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 9 $15.37 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Meat Cutting/Meat Cutter Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products Sales, Distribution, and Marketing Operations, General Specialized Merchandising, Sales, and Marketing Operations, Other General Merchandising, Sales, and Related Marketing Operations, Other Fashion Merchandising Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services, Other Apparel and Accessories Marketing Operations Special Products Marketing Operations Accountants and auditors 9 $24.55 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 29 Accounting and Finance Accounting and Computer Science Accounting and Business/Management Accounting 29 Auditing Taxation Slaughterers and meat packers $.34 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Meat Cutting/Meat Cutter First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers $17.2 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 72 Electrical and Power Transmission Installers, Other Building/Construction Site Management/Manager Building/Property Maintenance and Management Mason/Masonry 32 Concrete Finishing/Concrete Finisher 30

31 Occupation Avg. Annual Openings Median Hourly Earnings Related Programs Annual Enrollment at College Building/Construction Finishing, Management, and Inspection, Other Construction Management Carpentry/Carpenter Building/Home/Construction Inspection/Inspector Plumbing Technology/Plumber Drywall Installation/Drywaller Well Drilling/Driller Electrical and Power Transmission Installation/Installer, General Glazier Blasting/Blaster Electrician 40 Painting/Painter and Wall Coverer Construction Trades, Other Lineworker Roofer Construction managers $24.52 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 74 Business/Commerce, General Business Administration and Management, General 74 Operations Management and Supervision Construction Engineering Technology/Technician Executive secretaries and administrative assistants $12.22 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 4 Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General Medical Administrative/Executive Assistant and Medical Secretary Executive Assistant/Executive Secretary Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks $10.93 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 4 16 Accounting and Related Services, Other Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeeping First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers 16 $1.36 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Operations Management and Supervision Source: (9/2007) 31

32 About EMSI & the Data (EMSI) is a professional services firm that specializes in integrated, value-added datasets, web-based analysis tools (Strategic Advantage), data-driven reports, and custom consulting. EMSI s comprehensive dataset is generated from over 70 state, federal, and private sources. Population Data EMSI s custom population data and projections are based on several sources, including the 1990 and 2000 Census, U.S. Census Bureau annual estimates (including net migration), localized fertility/mortality rates by race/ethnicity and gender from the U.S. Health Department, and even projected regional job growth estimated from state and national employment projections, on the assumption that people will follow jobs. Educational Attainment Data EMSI s educational attainment numbers are based on Census 1990, Census 2000, the Current Population Survey, and EMSI s demographic data. By combining these sources, EMSI interpolates for missing years and projects data at the county level. Educational attainment data cover only the population aged 25 years or more and indicate the highest level achieved. High School Graduation Data High school graduation data are created by EMSI using the U.S. Department of Education s National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), as well as from EMSI s own demographic projections. Because the race/ethnicity categories used by NCES are somewhat different from EMSI s standard categories, they are converted to EMSI s categories. In addition, every year there are some U.S. counties with missing data, so EMSI generates estimates based on a regression of demographically and economically similar counties. Finally, the original numbers do not include private school graduations, so EMSI adds in estimates of these numbers based on a state-level NCES data source, using interpolation techniques to distribute the numbers to the county level. Industry Data In order to capture a complete picture of industry employment, EMSI basically combines covered employment data from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) produced by the Department of Labor with total employment data in Regional Economic Information System (REIS) published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), augmented with County Business Patterns (CBP) and Nonemployer Statistics (NES) published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Projections are based on the latest available EMSI industry data combined with past trends in each industry and the industry growth rates in national projections (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and states own projections, where available. Occupation Data Organizing regional employment information by occupation provides a workforce-oriented view of the regional economy. EMSI s occupation data are based on EMSI s industry data and regional staffing patterns taken from the Occupational Employment Statistics program (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Wage information is partially derived from the American Community Survey. The occupation-toprogram (SOC-to-CIP) crosswalk is based on one from the U.S. Department of Education, with customizations by EMSI. 32