Research Commodities Ukraine crisis puts commodity markets on alert

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 3 March 2014 Research Commodities Ukraine crisis puts commodity markets on alert Over the weekend, geopolitical tension in Ukraine increased and has now reached a level that has created cause for concern in commodity markets. Both Russia and Ukraine hold dominant positions in the global commodity market, in the energy and grain markets respectively. Ukraine also has a considerable steel industry. Today, natural gas and grain prices have spiked on worries that supplies may be hurt by intensification of the crisis. Below we present an overview of the recent price movements in the energy and grain markets and of the production and trade of energy, grains and steel in Russia and Ukraine. Prices rise on Ukraine worries Commodity markets are keeping a close watch on the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Both countries hold dominant positions in the global commodity markets Ukraine in the market for corn, rapeseed and wheat and Russia in the world energy market. Western Europe relies heavily on imports of oil and natural gas from Russia. Furthermore, Ukraine has considerable crude steel production. So far, there is no indication that the physical market for these commodities has been affected. However, commodity prices have spiked today, as the market has become concerned that the supplies of these commodities could be affected if the crisis escalates further. The natural gas price on the European market has risen more than 9% today and the wheat price is up more than 4%. Furthermore, we have seen spillover to other parts of the energy and grains market. The oil price has moved above USD112/bl, the highest price recorded this year, and prices for other grains, corn, milling wheat, rapeseed and soybean have today increased significantly as well. This should constitute a warning that the commodity market is unlikely to go untouched if the conflict deteriorates further, in which case we could see prices climbing further. However, as we have not seen any indication that the physical grain market has been affected by the crisis, we would expect prices to fall back should the tensions ease again. Contents Prices rise on Ukraine worries... 1 Russian energy production and trade... 2 Ukraine grain production and trade... 3 Ukraine steel production... 5 Year-high oil price (USD/bl) Rapeseed and mill wheat move up Natural gas prices in Europe spike Grain prices surge Analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen jenpe@danskebank.dk Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 6 of this report.

2 Russian energy production and trade Production The energy market is keeping its eyes focused tightly on the conflict in Ukraine, as Russia is among the world s leading energy producers and a viable energy source for Ukraine and most of western Europe, which leads to concerns that energy supplies could become part of the conflict. On an annual basis, Russia produces around 530mtoe of oil and natural gas. This amounts to around 12% and 17% of world production, respectively. International trade Approximately half Russia s oil output is traded outside the country s borders. The largest part of Russia s oil exports, around 70%, ends up in western Europe. The second largest export market is China, which takes around 15% of Russia s oil exports and, finally, it ships a minor part across the Atlantic to the United States. This accounts for close to 10%. Russia a leading energy producer Source: BP, Danske Bank Markets One-third of western Europe s total natural gas imports is supplied by Russia. Other major import sources are Norway and the Netherlands. Ukraine, Germany and Turkey are the largest importers of Russian natural gas, while Italy, Poland, Czech Republic and Belgium are other large markets for Russian natural gas. Russia s main intra-european natural gas trade movements by pipeline 3bcm 7bcm 9bcm 30bcm 7bcm 18bcm 30bcm 14bcm 25bcm Source: BP, Danske Bank Markets 2 3 March

3 Ukraine grain production and trade Production The agricultural sector accounts for a large part of Ukraine s economy. The country s agricultural production consists mainly of significant production of corn and wheat, around 20mmt and 16mmt, respectively, last year. Ukraine also has considerable production of rapeseed and some production of soybeans, barley, oats and sugar. Ukraine is one of the largest grain producers on the European continent, especially when it comes to the market for wheat. Around 40% of the wheat produced in Europe is produced in Ukraine. The production share of corn and rapeseed is a little less around 20% and 10%, respectively. Relative to total global production, Ukraine s corn, wheat and rapeseed amounts to around 3%. Ukraine s agricultural production (mt) Ukraine s share of the global grain market Soybean 5% Rapeseed 5% Barley 13% Sugar 4% Wheat 31% Oats 1% Corn 41% 4.0 % of global 3.5 production Rapeseed Corn Wheat Crop calendar It is mainly the Krim peninsula and the eastern parts of Ukraine that have so far been involved in the rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia. In respect of Ukraine s agricultural production, it is worth noting that the production of corn and wheat takes place in this part of the country, with Krim being a major wheat growing area. Ukraine s production of rapeseed takes place mainly in the western part of the country. Furthermore, it is important to note that the harvest of rapeseed and wheat is still some months away. The rapeseed harvest normally begins in June, while the wheat harvest begins later in the summer. The corn harvest does not begin until the autumn. Hence, if tension dampens before then the risks to global grain supplies will be less. Ukraine crop calendar Grain % of world % of world production exports Corn Rapeseed Wheat Note: Projected figures for marketing year, Danske Bank Markets Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 3 3 March

4 International trade While Ukraine s grain production may look modest in a global perspective, the country holds a dominant position in the global grain export market. Around 40-60% of Ukraine s wheat and corn production ends up in the global market, while 95% of Ukraine s rapeseed production is shipped out of the country. Hence, if the crisis leads to disruption of Ukraine s grain supplies, it would be likely to have severe repercussions for the global grain market. Largest global corn exporters 2012 (mt) % of global exports Brazil US Argentina Ukraine India Largest global wheat exporters 2012 (mt) % of global exports US Euro Zone Canada Russia Ukraine 4 3 March

5 Ukraine crude steel production Production Finally, it is worth noting that Ukraine also has considerable crude steel production as the country holds large iron ore reserves. On a monthly basis, the country produces around 2.5mmt of crude steel, which means that Ukraine controls around 2% of world crude steel production. The Ukrainian iron ore and steel industry is concentrated mainly in the central, southern and eastern part of the country. Ukraine has large crude steel production And controls a considerable share of world production Source: World Steel Association Source: World Steel Association, Danske Bank Markets 5 3 March

6 Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). The author of this research report is Jens Nærvig Pedersen, Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors on request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including a sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Date of first publication See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication. General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. 6 3 March

7 This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. 7 3 March

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