Real Time Economic Indicators from the Online Labor Market

Transcription

1 Real Time Economic Indicators from the Online Labor Market Tara M. Sinclair Chief Economist, Indeed Indeed Hiring blog.indeed.com

2 Economic Forecasts Fail Miserably at Key Times Real GDP Growth (%) 10 Real GDP Growth Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks

3 Economic Forecasts Fail Miserably at Key Times Real GDP Growth (%) Real GDP Growth Data SPF One Year Ahead Forecasts Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks

4 Economic Forecasts Fail Miserably at Key Times Real GDP Growth (%) 10 Real GDP Growth Data SPF One Year Ahead Forecasts Fed Staff One Year Ahead Forecasts Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks

5 PCE Inflation Forecasts PCE Inflation (%) 6 PCE Inflation Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks

6 PCE Inflation Forecasts PCE Inflation (%) 6 PCE Inflation Data SPF One Year Ahead Forecasts Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks

7 PCE Inflation Forecasts PCE Inflation (%) 6 PCE Inflation Data SPF One Year Ahead Forecasts Fed Staff One Year Ahead Forecasts Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks

8 Example: US Employment Forecasts Employment (in Thousands) Employment Data 140, , , , , , , Source: U.S. Bureau of Statistics, Philadelphia Fed Survey

9 Example: US Employment Forecasts Employment (in Thousands) 140,000 Employment Data 1-Year Ahead Employment Forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters 138, , , , , , Source: U.S. Bureau of Statistics, Philadelphia Fed Survey

10 Example: US Employment Forecasts Employment (in Thousands) 140, ,000 Employment Data 1-Year Ahead Employment Forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters Mid 2009: Overestimated by over 7M jobs! 136, , , , , Source: U.S. Bureau of Statistics, Philadelphia Fed Survey

11 U.S. Real GDP Growth Estimates 1st Quarter 2015

12 U.S. Real GDP Growth Estimates 1st Quarter 2015 Advance Estimate 4/29/15 0.2

13 U.S. Real GDP Growth Estimates 1st Quarter 2015 Advance Estimate 4/29/ Second Estimate 5/29/15

14 U.S. Real GDP Growth Estimates 1st Quarter 2015 Advance Estimate 4/29/ Second Estimate 5/29/ Third Estimate 6/24/15

15 U.S. Real GDP Growth Estimates 1st Quarter 2015 Advance Estimate 4/29/ Annual Revision 7/30/ Second Estimate 5/29/ Third Estimate 6/24/15

16 Economists put decimal points in their forecasts to show they have a sense of humor. - William Gilmore Simms

17 A global research institute committed to advancing the knowledge of Human resource and talent management professionals worldwide. Our research agenda includes large-scale labor research projects, ongoing tracking and analysis of employment trends, and surveys of industry professionals.

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19 Economist

20 Economist Austin, TX

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22 Hospitality and Manufacturing Postings 400,000 Hospitality Manufacturing 300, , ,000 0 January 10 January 11 January 12 January 13 January 14 January 15 Source: Indeed Data

23 Internet of Things Percentage of matching job postings June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 Source: Indeed Data

24 Deep Learning Percentage of matching job postings June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 Source: Indeed Data

25 Virtual Reality Percentage of matching job postings June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 Source: Indeed Data

26 Hospitality Job postings Job seeker interest +51% +33% Transportation Job postings Job seeker interest +101% +29% Job postings Job seeker interest Education +28% +29% Source: Indeed Data

27 Per 10K Total Jobs Price of Crude Oil Oil Jobs Oil price as depicted by the WTI (NYMEX), Indeed job search and listings represent a ratio of postings for oil-related jobs to 10,000 total jobs in the U.S.

28 Per 10K Total Jobs Price of Crude Oil Searches for Oil Jobs Oil price as depicted by the WTI (NYMEX), Indeed job search and listings represent a ratio of postings for oil-related jobs to 10,000 total jobs in the U.S.

29 Share of searches related to flexibility Index 2013Q1= Australia United States Japan Source: Indeed Data

30 40% Share of GR searches going outside of GR May 1 July 5 35% 30% 25% 20% After Greece announced a referendum vote on the EU s latest bailout offer. 15% 10% 5/1/2015 5/15/2015 5/29/2015 6/12/2015 6/26/2015 Source: Indeed Data

31 Tara M. Sinclair Chief Economist, Indeed Indeed Hiring blog.indeed.com