1Q17 UNITED STATES MULTIHOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

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1 1Q17 UNITED STATES MULTIHOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 Executive Summary 4 Historical Sales Volume 5 Sales Volume Analysis 6 Top Markets by Sales Volume 7 Historical Pricing Trends 8 Cap Rates by Market 9 Cap Rate Trends 10 Top Buyers by Region 11 Sales Volume by Transaction Type 12 Yield Spread 13 International Capital - Top Buyers and Countries 14 International Capital - Top Destinations 15 Historical Rent Growth 16 Top Markets by Rent Growth 17 Historical Occupancy Rate 18 Historical Supply and Demand 19 New Supply Markets 20 Employment Growth Markets 21 Homeownership Rate 22 Debt Outstanding 23 Mortgage Maturities 24 Lender Composition 2

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sales Volume A lack of portfolio and entity-level transactions in 1Q17 contributed to a slow start to the year, although stronger sales growth is anticipated during the second half. Cap Rates Yields held steady at 5.4% nationally, yet cap rates in tertiary markets have compressed over the past 24 months, as more investors have moved into these markets in search of greater returns. Rent Growth While annualized effective rent growth moderated to 2.1% nationally, western markets with heavy ties to technology employment saw the strongest gains. Supply and Demand Over 370,000 units are expected to be delivered nationally in 2017; however, in the past 12 months, the majority of new supply has been concentrated in the top 15 markets. International Capital Overseas investors continue to seek out quality multihousing assets and have recently been flocking to top-tier secondary markets such as Atlanta, Charlotte and Phoenix. Debt Markets Multihousing maturities are estimated to rise to $114.7 billion in 2017, with debt outstanding growing to $1.2 billion, as other lenders have filled the void left by a slowing CMBS market. 3

4 Billions HISTORICAL SALES VOLUME United States 12-month sales volume fell 8.9% year-overyear to $143.6 billion, while the quarterly decline was more pronounced at 35.4%. $200 $160 Quarterly sales volume was $25.0 billion, representing a 35.4% decline year-over-year; however, this was mainly due to uncertainty throughout the market following the election. Activity is projected to be similar to $120 $80 $ , when sales volume was weighted toward the second half of the year. Although demand remains strong for well-positioned urban infill assets, it is expected to slow in the first half of 2017, as investors remain cautious despite high levels of dry powder available for acquisitions. $ Month Totals Quarterly Totals Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 4

5 SALES VOLUME ANALYSIS By Market Tier and Region, 12-Month Totals Assets in the South and West are the most sought after due to strong demographic trends and attractive growth prospects. Tertiary Markets 20.3% West 23.7% Mid-Atlantic 7.6% Midwest 8.2% Sales Volume by Market Tier Primary Markets 49.3% Sales Volume by Region Northeast 13.9% Secondary Markets 30.4% Southwest 22.7% Southeast 23.9% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 5

6 TOP MARKETS BY SALES VOLUME 12-Month Totals Sales volume in top tier secondary markets such as Dallas and Atlanta surpassed primary markets over the past 12 months. RALEIGH-DURHAM SAN FRANCISCO INLAND EMPIRE ORANGE COUNTY BALTIMORE SAN DIEGO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DENVER SUBURBAN MARYLAND NORTHERN VIRGINIA CHARLOTTE BOSTON LAS VEGAS ORLANDO TAMPA PORTLAND AUSTIN CHICAGO NYC BOROUGHS HOUSTON PHOENIX LOS ANGELES MANHATTAN ATLANTA DALLAS $1.8 $1.8 $2.0 $2.1 $2.2 $2.2 $2.2 $2.3 $2.3 $2.3 $2.4 $2.5 $2.5 $2.8 $2.8 $2.9 $3.4 $4.2 $4.9 $5.2 $5.4 $6.8 $7.3 $8.4 Primary Markets Secondary Markets $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 Billions $8.8 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 6

7 Cap Rates (%) Price Per Unit ($) HISTORICAL PRICING TRENDS Institutional Averages; United States Cap rates are holding steady at 5.4%, as pricing remains tight, as for sale product remains limited. 10.0% $200, % $160, % $120, % $80, % $40, % $ Price Per Unit Cap Rates Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics ($25M+ Transactions) 7

8 CAP RATES BY MARKET Institutional Averages Yields in supply-constrained markets remain tight, even as capital chases yield into secondary and tertiary markets. SEATTLE 4.6% PORTLAND 4.7% MINNEAPOLIS 4.9% BOSTON 4.8% MANHATTAN 3.6% SAN FRANCISCO 3.8% SAN JOSE 4.7% SACRAMENTO 5.1% SALT LAKE CITY 5.5% LOS ANGELES 4.4% SAN DIEGO 4.8% LAS VEGAS 5.4% PHOENIX 5.1% DENVER 5.0% WICHITA 6.0% KANSAS CITY 5.5% DALLAS 5.1% TULSA 5.9% OKLAHOMA CITY 5.6% CHICAGO 5.0% ST. LOUIS 5.8% MEMPHIS 5.7% LITTLE ROCK 6.0% INDIANAPOLIS 5.9% COLUMBUS 5.6% LOUISVILLE 5.8% NASHVILLE 5.5% BIRMINGHAM 5.7% CHARLOTTE 5.4% ATLANTA 5.2% PHILADELPHIA 5.4% WASHINGTON, D.C. 5.0% RALEIGH-DURHAM 5.4% CHARLESTON 5.6% JACKSONVILLE 5.7% ORLANDO 5.3% AUSTIN 4.9% SAN ANTONIO 5.3% HOUSTON 5.4% TAMPA 5.2% MIAMI 4.9% % % % 6.0+% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics ($25M+ Transactions) 8

9 CAP RATES TRENDS By Market Tier and Regions As additional capital has been deployed in tertiary markets, cap rates have compressed over the last 24 months. 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics ($25M+ Transactions) 9

10 TOP BUYERS BY REGION 12-Month Totals As a result of its $3.9 billion acquisition of Post Properties, MAA was the top buyer in half of the six US regions. Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 10

11 SALES VOLUME BY TRANSACTION TYPE United States Portfolio and entity transactions are down 71.0% year-over-year, conversely, the market for individual transactions is resilient. 100% 80% 4.2% 16.8% 0.4% 16.8% 14.4% 5.1% 3.7% 16.3% 21.9% 20.5% 2.8% 22.9% 1.3% 0.5% 11.0% 17.3% 19.2% 11.1% 1.0% 16.5% 36.7% 4.1% 20.1% 8.9% 18.8% 4.3% 21.6% 0.3% 16.2% 21.9% 60% 40% 79.0% 82.8% 85.6% 78.6% 74.4% 74.3% 87.7% 82.7% 80.3% 72.5% 75.8% 72.3% 74.1% 83.5% 57.6% 62.2% 20% 0% Individual Portfolio Entity Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 11

12 Cap Rates & Treasury Note (%) Spread (BPS) YIELD SPREAD Institutional Multihousing Cap Rates vs. the 10-Year Treasury Note Following a sharp increase in the 10-year treasury note post election, the yield spread is now at its lowest level since % % % % % % Yield Spread Multihousing Cap Rates 10-Year Treasury Rate Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real Capital Analytics ($25M+ Transactions) 12

13 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL Top Buyers and Countries of Origin, 12-Month Totals While Canada remains the dominant investor in US multihousing, Israeli firms have taken a significant market share. Top Countries of Origin Top Buyers ($100M+) Germany 4.5% Singapore 7.7% France 3.7% Kuwait 4.0% UK 4.0% Switzerland Sweden Other 1.5% 2.4% 4.5% Canada 52.4% Brookfield Asset Mgmt CPP Investment Board Emma Capital H&R REIT Manulife Financial AXA Group CAPSSA FRANCE ISRAEL Amitim Electra Ltd Menora Mivtachim Psagot Sage Equities CANADA Pure Multi-Family REIT Starlight Investments Venterra Properties Western Wealth Capital Jamestown Wafra GERMANY KUWAIT SWEDEN Akelius Residential AB SINGAPORE SWITZERLAND Israel 15.4% GIC Mapletree Investments Varia US Properties THAILAND UK Land & Houses PLC TH Real Estate Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 13

14 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL Top Destinations, 12-Month Totals Overseas investors continue to increase their exposure to top secondary markets such as Atlanta, Charlotte and Phoenix. 1.5% POR 1.5% SEA 3.9% DEN 1.2% CHI 5.9% DC 2.8% BOS 13.0% NYC BY MARKET TIER As a % of Overall Investment MAJOR MARKETS 23.1% SECONDARY & TERTIARY 76.9% BY REGION As a % of Overall Investment 3.8% R-D MID-ATLATNIC 7.6% 1.6% SF/SJ 4.3% DAL 11.3% ATL 5.7% CHA 3.0% ORL MIDWEST 4.9% NORTHEAST 14.0% 2.2% LA 7.2% PHX 4.5% AUS 1.2% HOU 1.8% TAM SOUTHEAST 38.7% SOUTHWEST 24.7% 1.6% SA 1.9% SO FL WEST 10.1% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 14

15 Effective Rent Growth ($) Effective Rent (%) HISTORICAL RENT GROWTH Annual Effective Rent Annualized effective rent growth is a modest 2.1%, with the national average up to $1,280 per unit. $1,500 $1, % 6.0% Class A Effective Rent Growth 2Q16 2.7% 3Q16 1.0% 4Q16-2.0% 1Q17 1.0% $900 $ % -2.0% Class B Effective Rent Growth 2Q16 2.8% 3Q16 1.1% 4Q16-1.3% 1Q17 0.3% $ % Class C Effective Rent Growth 2Q16 2.4% 3Q16 1.0% $0-10.0% Q16-0.4% 1Q17 0.0% Effective Rent Effective Rent Growth Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 15

16 TOP MARKETS BY RENT GROWTH Year-over-Year Change Rent growth across the nation has moderated over the last several quarters, but remains strongest in western markets. 10.0% 8.8% 8.0% 6.0% 5.2% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 16

17 HISTORICAL OCCUPANCY RATE United States Despite high levels of new housing supply entering the market, occupancy remains extremely strong throughout the country. 96.0% 95.0% Heavy delivery months Class A Occupancy Rate 2Q % 3Q % 94.0% 93.0% Long-Term Average = 94.0% 94.9% 4Q % 1Q % Class B Occupancy Rate 2Q % 3Q % 4Q % 1Q % 92.0% Class C Occupancy Rate 2Q % 3Q % 4Q % 91.0% Q % All Classes Long-Term Average Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 17

18 New Supply & Absorption (Units) Inventory Growth (%) HISTORICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND United States With over 370,000 units to be delivered in 2017, inventory growth continues to climb at a modest pace of 1.5% nationally. 500, % 400, % 300, % 200, % 100, % * New Supply Absorption Inventory Growth 0.0% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 18

19 Atlanta Austin Baltimore Birmingham Boston Charlotte Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Dallas Denver Detroit Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City Las Vegas Los Angeles Louisville Memphis Minneapolis Nashville New York City Oklahoma City Oakland Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix Portland Raleigh-Durham Sacramento Salt Lake City San Antonio San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle South Florida St. Louis Tampa Tulsa Washington, D.C. NEW SUPPLY MARKETS 12-Month Totals The bulk of new supply is in the top 15 markets, where 56% of deliveries have occurred over the last four quarters. 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 19

20 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH MARKETS Year-over-Year Change, Largest Metros Employment growth accelerated in many metros, and the entire state of Florida experienced above-average advances % % % % % Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (February release) 20

21 HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE United States National homeownership is on the rise, however, the number of renter households has grown in several key markets. 70% Major Changes in Homeownership % ARIZONA -9.2% 66% Long-Term Average = 65.3% NEVADA -8.9% 64% 62% 63.7% COLORADO -8.7% 60% FLORIDA -8.1% 58% Homeownership Rate Long-Term Homeownership Rate Average OHIO -7.2% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, U.S. Census Bureau 21

22 DEBT OUTSTANDING United States Multihousing debt outstanding grew to $1.2 trillion, as REITS, Agency & GSE s grew their debt considerably year-over-year. State/Local Gov't 5.8% CMBS 4.1% Other 3.0% Year-over-Year % Change REITs +18.5% Agency & GSE +14.9% Life Insurance 8.0% Bank & Thrift +11.2% Life Insurance +9.0% Agency & GSE 45.6% State and Local Gov t +3.3% Bank & Thrift 33.5% CMBS -23.7% Pension Funds -13.8% Federal Gov t -2.0% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Mortgage Bankers Association 22

23 Billions MORTGAGE MATURITIES United States Multihousing mortgage maturities are expected to rise 12.7% to $114.7 billion in 2017, up from $101.8 billion in $150 $125 $100 $62 $64 $64 $75 $50 $25 $24 $3 $3 $17 $31 $27 $3 $3 $5 $4 $20 $22 $35 $3 $10 $25 $38 $3 $9 $29 $50 $53 $55 $55 $58 $44 $40 $4 $3 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $8 $9 $10 $10 $13 $15 $16 $33 $33 $33 $32 $29 $27 $24 $64 $5 $4 $21 $6 $34 $27 $4 $5 $41 $4 $4 $48 $ Banks CMBS Life Insurance Agency, GSE & Others Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Trepp 23

24 LENDER COMPOSITION 12-Month Totals Regional and local banks have expanded their multihousing lending, filling some of the void left by CMBS. United States 5.9% 53.3% 1.9% 6.4% 2.4% 12.7% 16.1% 1.3% Primary Markets 6.0% 34.3% 1.5% 6.5% 4.3% 18.6% 27.8% 1.0% Secondary Markets 6.4% 63.1% 1.8% 7.5% 1.6% 9.8% 8.4% 1.4% Tertiary Markets 4.2% 69.4% 3.6% 2.8% 0.5% 6.8% 11.4% 1.3% Northeast 6.3% 26.9% 0.9% 4.8% 5.6% 13.4% 41.3% 0.8% Mid-Atlantic 7.2% 61.4% 1.0% 6.1% 1.8% 10.2% 10.8% 1.5% Southeast 5.9% 69.4% 2.1% 6.1% 1.4% 8.5% 5.1% 1.5% Midwest 7.4% 55.8% 3.6% 7.9% 2.2% 7.9% 13.8% 1.4% Southwest 6.6% 67.4% 2.7% 6.6% 0.7% 6.6% 8.2% 1.2% West 4.3% 45.8% 1.6% 7.2% 2.6% 22.1% 14.9% 1.5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Financial Gov't Agency CMBS Insurance Int'l Bank Nat'l Bank Reg/Local Bank Private/Other Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 24

25 New York City HEADQUARTERS 125 Park Avenue New York, NY Blake Okland Vice Chairman, Head of US Multifamily Jonathan Mazur Managing Director, Research Michael Wolfson Senior Capital Markets Research Analyst Joshua Manning Capital Markets Research Analyst Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at All information contained in this publication is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable. However, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank (NGKF) has not verified any such information, and the same constitutes the statements and representations only of the source thereof, and not of NGKF. Any recipient of this publication should independently verify such information and all other information that may be material to any decision that recipient may make in response to this publication, and should consult with professionals of the recipient s choice with regard to all aspects of that decision, including its legal, financial, and tax aspects and implications. Any recipient of this publication may not, without the prior written approval of NGKF, distribute, disseminate, publish, transmit, copy, broadcast, upload, download, or in any other way reproduce this publication or any of the information it contains.

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