Saskatchewan Industry Labour Demand Outlook, Ministry of the Economy Fall 2017

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1 Saskatchewan Industry Labour Demand Outlook, Ministry of the Economy Fall 2017

2 About this Outlook The Industry Labour Demand Outlook provides a forecast of job openings and employment growth for 16 major sectors in Saskatchewan for the five-year period, 2017 to Forecasted numbers reflect current and anticipated future economic conditions and are subject to market uncertainty in commodity prices, exchange rates and other economic factors. The forecast is based on Saskatchewan Ministry of Finance s budget assumptions and the Centre for Spatial Economics Saskatchewan Occupational Modeling System. More detailed information is available in Assumptions, Definitions and Methodology section of this report. 2

3 Key Findings A total of 93,800 job openings are forecasted over the fiveyear period, 2017 to Of these, 23,500 (25%) are due to economic growth (expansion demand) and 70,300 (75%) are largely due to retirements (replacement demand or attrition). All major sectors are expected to have a net increase in job openings over the forecast period. The largest gains will be in wholesale and retail trade, health care and social assistance, and agriculture. Replacement of retiring workers will be the primary source of job openings, although economic growth will be a key source of job openings for accommodation and food services, other services, and utilities. Employment growth is expected to average 0.8% annually over the forecast period. Industries with stronger employment growth include: accommodation and food services (+2.2%); utilities (+1.6%); other services (+1.3%); professional, scientific and technical services (+1.2%); and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (+1.2%). 3

4 Job Openings by Industry Saskatchewan forecasted job opening by industry, Trade (wholesale and retail) Health care and social assistance Agriculture Accommodation and food services Construction Educational services Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Transportation and warehousing Professional, scientific and technical services Other services Manufacturing Public administration Information, culture and recreation Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas Expansion Business, building and other support services Replacement Utilities Net job openings 13,000 12,600 9,600 7,700 6,300 5,900 5,800 5,400 5,100 4,800 4,600 3,700 3,400 2,200 2,100 1,600-1,000 2,000 5,000 8,000 11,000 14,000 4

5 Agriculture The sector is comprised of crop and animal production and supporting services such as soil preparation, seeding, harvesting, grain cleaning, livestock breeding and farm management. 41,100 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 45,000 43,000 Actual Forecast 41,000 39, f 2021f 5

6 Agriculture 9,600 job openings 8,500 due to replacement demand Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Managers in agriculture General farm workers Accounting technicians and bookkeepers Transport truck drivers Nursery and greenhouse workers 1,100 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, ,500 1,100 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT 6

7 Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil and Gas The sector is comprised of forestry and logging, fishing, hunting and trapping and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction which are primarily engaged in extracting naturally occurring minerals. 25,100 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 31,000 28,000 Actual Forecast 25,000 22, f 2021f 7

8 Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil and Gas 2,200 job openings Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Underground production and development miners Supervisors, mining and quarrying Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics Industrial electricians Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 2,700 due to replacement demand -500 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, , EXPANSION REPLACEMENT Job Openings by Sub Sector Mining and oil & gas extraction Expansion Replacement Job openings 500 1,900 +2,400 Forestry and logging Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction -1, Total ,700 +2,200 8

9 Construction The sector is comprised of trade contracting, nonresidential building construction, residential building construction and heavy and civil engineering construction. 51,300 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 75,000 55,000 Actual Forecast 35,000 15, f 2021f 9

10 Construction 6,300 job openings Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Carpenters Construction managers Construction trades helpers and labourers Electricians (except industrial and power system) Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 5,700 due to replacement demand 600 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, , EXPANSION REPLACEMENT Job Openings by Sub Sector Expansion Replacement Job openings Trade contracting 400 3,100 +3,500 Non-residential building construction ,000 Heavy and civil engineering construction , Residential building construction , Total 600 5,700 +6,300 10

11 Utilities The sector consists of businesses that provide electricity, natural gas, steam supply, water supply and sewage removal services. 6,900 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Actual Forecast 4, f 2021f 11

12 Utilities 1,600 job openings 1,000 due to replacement demand Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Waste and waste treatment plant operators Power engineers and power systems operators Electrical power line and cable workers Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities Other customer and information services representatives 600 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, , EXPANSION REPLACEMENT 12

13 Manufacturing The sector consists of businesses engaged in the physical or chemical transformation of materials or substances into new products. 25,700 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 35,000 30,000 Actual Forecast 25,000 20, f 2021f 13

14 Manufacturing 4,600 job openings Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Welders and related machine operators Transport truck drivers Manufacturing managers Rubber processing machine operators Metalworking and forging machine operators 3,200 due to replacement demand 1,400 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, ,200 1,400 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT 14

15 Trade (Wholesale and Retail) Wholesale trade businesses are primarily engaged in wholesaling merchandise as an intermediate step in merchandise distribution and in providing related logistics, marketing and support services. Retail trade businesses are primarily engaged in selling merchandise in small quantities to the general public, usually without transformation, and rendering services incidental to the sale of merchandise. 88,300 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 96,000 90,000 Actual Forecast 84,000 78, f 2021f 15

16 Trade (Wholesale and Retail) 13,000 job openings Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Retail and wholesale trade managers Retail salespersons Cashiers Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers 9,500 due to replacement demand 3,500 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, ,500 3,500 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT 16

17 Transportation and Warehousing The sector activities include the transport of passengers and cargo, warehousing and storage of goods, and support activities related to modes of transportation. 27,900 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 32,000 29,000 Actual 26,000 Forecast 23, f 2021f 17

18 Transportation and Warehousing 5,400 job openings Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Transport truck drivers Mail, postal and related workers Delivery and courier service drivers Letter carriers Supervisors, mail and message distribution 3,900 due to replacement demand 1,500 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, ,900 1,500 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT 18

19 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Sector businesses are primarily engaged in financial transactions that involve the creation, liquidation or change in ownership of financial assets, or in facilitating financial transactions. The sector also includes businesses that rent, lease or otherwise allow the use of their assets by others. 28,600 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 32,000 30,000 Actual Forecast 28,000 26, f 2021f 19

20 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 5,800 job openings 4,000 due to replacement demand Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Customer services representatives financial institutions Property administrators Banking, credit and other investment managers Other financial officers Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers 1,800 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, ,000 1,800 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT 20

21 Education Services The sector includes instruction and training provided on a wide variety of subjects by schools, colleges, universities and training centres. 40,900 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 44,000 41,000 38,000 Actual Forecast 35, f 2021f 21

22 Education Services 5,900 job openings Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Elementary school and kindergarten teachers Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants Secondary school teachers Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents School principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education 5,400 due to replacement demand 500 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, , EXPANSION REPLACEMENT 22

23 Health Care and Social Assistance The sector consists of organizations and institutions that primarily provide health care and social assistance services to individuals. 78,700 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 90,000 80,000 70,000 Actual Forecast 60, f 2021f 23

24 Health Care and Social Assistance 12,600 job openings Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates Early childhood educators and assistants Social and community service workers Home support workers, housekeepers 9,400 due to replacement demand 3,200 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, ,400 3,200 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT 24

25 Accommodation and Food Services The sector is comprised of businesses providing accommodation services such as hotels, resorts, cottages and cabins, various types of recreational camps, and businesses engaged in providing food and drinking services. 38,100 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 45,000 41,000 37,000 Actual Forecast 33,000 29, f 2021f 25

26 Accommodation and Food Services 7,700 job openings 3,000 due to replacement demand 4,700 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, ,700 EXPANSION 3,000 REPLACEMENT Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Cooks Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers Restaurant and food service managers Food and beverage servers Light duty cleaners 26

27 Public Administration The sector includes all levels of government agencies that administer, oversee, and manage public programs, and have executive, legislative, or judicial authority over other institutions within a given area. These agencies also set policy, create laws, adjudicate civil and criminal legal cases, and provide for public safety and national defense. 29,400 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 31,000 30,000 29,000 Actual Forecast 28, f 2021f 27

28 Public Administration 3,700 job openings 3,900 due to replacement demand Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Police officers (except commissioned) Administrative officers Correctional service officers Administrative assistants Survey interviewers and statistical clerks -200 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, , EXPANSION REPLACEMENT 28

29 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services The sector is comprised of establishments primarily engaged in activities in which human capital is the major input. The main components of this sector include management services, legal services, accounting services, architectural and engineering services, and scientific and technical consulting services. 28,100 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 33,000 28,000 Actual 23,000 Forecast 18, f 2021f 29

30 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 5,100 job openings 3,300 due to replacement demand 1,800 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, ,300 1,800 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Financial auditors and accountants Accounting technicians and bookkeepers Professional occupations in business management consulting Administrative assistants Civil engineers 30

31 Business, Building and Other Support Services The sector includes establishments engaged in management of companies and enterprises, administrative and support services, and waste management and remediation services. 13,000 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 16,000 14,000 Actual Forecast 12,000 10, f 2021f 31

32 Business, Building and Other Support Services 2,100 job openings 1,600 due to replacement demand Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Light duty cleaners Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents Security guards and related security service occupations Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers Travel counsellors 500 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, , EXPANSION REPLACEMENT 32

33 Information, Culture and Recreation The sector consists of a wide variety of service industries including publishing, broadcasting, motion picture and sound recording, telecommunications, internet service providers, performing arts and spectator sports, heritage institutions, and gambling and recreation industries. 20,400 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 23,000 20,000 17,000 Actual Forecast 14, f 2021f 33

34 Information, Culture and Recreation 3,400 job openings 2,300 due to replacement demand 1,100 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, ,300 1,100 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Telecommunications installation and repair workers Librarians Couriers, messengers and door-to-door distributors Sales and account representatives wholesale trade Casino occupations 34

35 Other Services The sector includes services related to automotive repair and maintenance, personal and laundry services, private household services, and religious, grant-making and professional organizations. 25,000 employed in % forecasted average annual employment growth rate Employment Trend 29,000 27,000 Actual Forecast 25,000 23, f 2021f 35

36 Other Services 4,800 job openings 3,000 due to replacement demand 1,800 due to expansion demand Forecasted Job Openings, ,000 1,800 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT Top 5 occupations with the most job openings: Hairstylists and barbers Automotive service technicians - truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers Professional occupations in religion Motor vehicle body repairers Retail and wholesale trade managers 36

37 Assumptions, Definitions and Methodology Forecasted data reflects current and expected economic conditions at the time of the development of the forecast scenario (summer 2016). The forecast does not reflect current job vacancies and does not distinguish between fulltime and part-time jobs. The sector categories in this report align with Statistics Canada s Labour Force Survey sectors, which are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Net job openings equal expansion demand (new jobs generated through economic expansion) plus replacement demand (existing jobs which have been vacated mostly due to retirements and requiring a replacement). Employment change differs from job openings due to expansion demand because expansion demand is a labour force concept that includes changes in both employment and the normally unemployed (unemployed persons that are required during peak employment demands or unemployed for short periods as they change employers). 37

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