Winds of Change: Work Arrangements in Germany

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1 dgdg Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung Winds of Change: Work Arrangements in Germany July 2009 Conference on Regulating for Decent Work Dr. Ulrich Walwei Vicedirector and Professor ILO - International Labour Office Geneva, July 08 th -10 th

2 Winds of Change: Work Arrangements in Germany What are we talking about? Which developments took place? What might be the reasons behind the changes? What can we conclude? 2

3 Work Arrangements: Standard, non-standard, precarious? employment security: permanent jobs can be terminated, temporary work may be a stepping stone working time: depending on circumstances and preferences of the individual; the level of working hours can be voluntary or involuntary cumulation of risks: recurrent unemployment, employment traps (possible alternatives such as long-term unemployment need to be born in mind) 3

4 Work arrangements in Germany 1991 to Index, 1991= Total employed Part-time w ork Fixed-term contracts Self-employed Agency w orkers Multiple job holders Source: Federal Statistical Office and Federal Employment Agency; own calculations. 4

5 Development of Work Arrangements in Germany from 1991 to Thousands thereof: thereof: thereof. Total employed Part-time work Self-employed Fixed-term contracts Multiple job holders Agency workers Source: Federal Employment Agency 5

6 Main Categories of Work Arrangements Non-standard work arrangements = Employed with less than 32 hours a week + Non-permanent workers (>31h) + Agency workers + One-person-businesses Specific types of employment = Apprenticeships + Military services + Alternative services + Unpaid family workers Standard work arrangements = Total employed - non-standard work arrangements - specific types of employment 6

7 Work Arrangements: Development of Main Categories - Thousands, 1991 to in Non-standard work arrangements Specific types of employment Standard work arrangements Source: Destatis (Labour Force Survey) and Federal Employment Agency 7

8 Work Arrangements of Women: Development of Main Categories - Thousands, 1991 to in Non-standard work arrangements Specific types of employment Standard work arrangements Source: Destatis (Labour Force Survey) and Federal Employment Agency 8

9 Work Arrangements of Men: Development of Main Categories - Thousands, 1991 to in Non-standard work arrangements Specific types of employment Standard work arrangements Source: Destatis (Labour Force Survey) and Federal Employment Agency 9

10 Work arrangements by age and skill levels in Germany - percentages - Age groups Skill levels no degree qualified academics Non-standard work arrangements Standard work arrangements ,7 28,9 36,2 56,2 35,9 28,1 22,8 28,4 35,0 75,0 70,4 63,9 22,8 29,2 33,6 73,9 69,4 65,3 16,6 33,7 43,1 54,9 46,9 34,0 11,0 27,6 33,9 77,0 71,0 64,8 15,1 27,4 32,1 75,7 71,9 67,5 Source: Federal Statistical Office 10

11 Possible Reasons for more Heterogeneity of Jobs Economic growth and business cycle Gender composition Sectoral composition Institutions (regulations, social security contributions) 11

12 Changes of GDP and Work Arrangements 1992 to Percent - Change in GDP Change in standard work arrangements Change in non-standard work arrangements Source: Destatis and Federal Employment Agency; own calculations 12

13 Change of agency workers (percentages) Veränderung der Zahl der befristet Beschäftigten (in Prozent) Changes of GDP and Agency wokers Veränderung der Zahl der befristet Beschäftigten und - Simulation Veränderung based on des employment Bruttoinlandsproduktes elasticities ( ) Change of GDP (percentages) Quelle: Federal Statistical Office and Federal Employment Agency); own calculations 13

14 Development of work arrangements and sectoral composition of employment - Shift-share-analyses 1991 to 2007,shift effect as a percentage of total change Non-standard work arrangements Marginal workers Fixed-term contracts One-person-businesses Part-time workers ( 31 h) 38, , ,1 3,2 6,1 shifteffect(%) Source: Federal Statistical Office and Federal Employment Service; own calculations 14

15 Development of work arrangements and gender specific composition of employment - Shift-share-analyses 1991 to 2007,shift effect as a percentage of total change , Non-standard work arrangements Marginal workers Fixed-term contracts One-person-businesses Part-time workers ( 31 h) 6,5 5 1,7 2, ,5 shifteffect(%) Source: Federal Statistical Office and Federal Employment Agency; own calculations 15

16 Main Elements of German Labour Market Reform More flexible employment New labour market policy - Dismissal protection - Agency work - ''Mini''- and ''Midi''-Jobs - Activation as a guideline - Changes of the organisations involved - Less generous benefits for long-term unemployed - More effective programmes Expected effect: Labour market should be more absorptive and permeable Expected effect: Improved matching More flexible workers 16

17 OECD-Index of Employment Protection Legislation (EPL), fixed-term-contracts and agency workers in Germany 1991 to ,00 6,00 thousands Employment protection legislation regular work Fixed-term contracts * * * No information available Source: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Employment Agency, OECD 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 Employment protection legislation temporary work Agency workers EPL (OECD) 17

18 Social security contributions and related non-standard work arrangements in Germany 1991 to 2007 Source: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Employment Agency, Institute for Employment Research 18

19 Winds of Change (1) - Main findings and conclusions - Composition of work arrangements is changing Significant employment gains and less structural unemployment during the recent upswing Greater polarization of employment (debate on decent'' work) 19

20 Winds of Change (2) - Consequences regarding the economic crisis Increased turnover during the business cycle? Question for future research Cyclical sensitiveness of temporary employment Reversal of reforms? Polarization versus permeability Employability needs to be addressed more 20

21 dgdg Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung July 2009 For more information: dgdg 21

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