Employment 28 Months Following Trough U.S. Recessions Comparison. Trough Month =

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2 Employment 28 Months Following Trough U.S. Recessions Comparison Trough Month = /54-9/56 2/61-6/63 3/75-7/77 11/82-3/85 11/01-3/04 10/49-2/52 3/58-8/60 11/70-3/73 7/80-11/82 3/91-7/93

3 Employment 36 Months Following Peak U.S. Recessions Comparison Peak Month = /53-7/56 4/60-4/63 11/73-11/76 7/81-7/84 3/01-3/04 11/48-11/51 8/57-8/60 12/69-12/72 1/80-1/83 7/90-7/93

4 Index 1980= United States vs. Europe Job Creation United States Europe

5 Percent Change, Year Ago United States vs. Europe Job Creation United States Europe

6 Largest Employment Losses Peak of Business Cycle to Present, United States Industry* Mar-01 (Thou.) Mar-04 (Thou.) Job Losses (Thou.) Percent Decline Communications Equipment Apparel Manufacturing Semiconductor & Electronic Components Textile Mills Computer & Electronic Product Mfg 1, , Computer & Peripheral Equip Electrical Equip., Appliance, & Components Primary Metal Manufacturing ISPs, Web Search Portals, & Data Processing Telecommunications 1, , * Minimum 100k Jobs During March 2004

7 Largest Employment Gains Peak of Business Cycle to Present, United States Industry Mar-01 (Thou.) Mar-04 (Thou.) Job Gains (Thou.) Percent Increase Home Health Care Services State Gov't Educational Services 2, , Social Assistance Services 1, , Wholesale Electronic Brokers Child Day Care Services Credit Intermediation 2, , Outpatient Care Centers Offices of Physicians 1, , Building Materials Dealers 1, , Hospitals 4, , * Minimum 100k Jobs During March 2004

8 Percent Change, SAAR Historical Productivity Output per Man-Hour Non-Farm Business Sector Manufacturing Sector

9 2 Cumulative Jobs Lost or Added Current vs. Previous Cycle Millions of Jobs Lost/Added 1 0 Previous Cycle July '90 - June ' Current Cycle Mar. ' Mar. '04

10 Household vs. Establishment Surveys United States Percent Change, Year Ago Difference in Jobs Between Surveys Establishment Survey - L Household Survey - L Net Difference - R

11 Household vs. Establishment Surveys Employment Level Comparison, United States Millions Establishment Survey Household Survey

12 Growth of Self-Employed Workers United States March 2001 = Hours 35+ Hours Mar. ' Mar. '04

13 Percent Change, Year Ago Self-Employed Workers United States 1-34 Hours 35+ Hours -15 Mar. ' Mar. '04

14 Millions A Tale of Two Surveys How Many More Jobs in Household Survey?

15 Research & Development Inputs 2004 State Science & Technology Index Top Ten 2nd Tier 3rd Tier Bottom Tier

16 Federal Research & Development Dollars per Capita, 2004 Top Ten 2nd Tier 3rd Tier Bottom Tier

17 Industry Research & Development Dollars per Capita, 2004 Top Ten 2nd Tier 3rd Tier Bottom Tier

18 Academic Research & Development Dollars per Capita, 2004 Top Ten 2nd Tier 3rd Tier Bottom Tier

19 Risk Capital Infrastructure Component 2004 State Science & Technology Index Top Ten 2nd Tier 3rd Tier Bottom Tier

20 Number of Business Starts per 100,000 People Top Ten 2nd Tier 3rd Tier Bottom Tier

21 IPO Proceeds as Percent of GSP 2004 State Science & Technology Index Top Ten 2nd Tier Bottom Tier

22 Number of Business Incubators per 10,000 Business Establishments Top Ten 2nd Tier 3rd Tier Bottom Tier

23 World Knowledge Competitive Index IT & Computer Manufacturing Employment Rank Region Score 1 Austin, US San Francisco, US Portland-Salem, US Kanagawa, Japan Phoenix-Mesa, US Zuid-Nederland, Netherlands Boston, US Sacramento-Yolo, US Stockholm, Sweden Ireland 199.6

24 World Knowledge Competitive Index Biotechnology & Chemical Sector Employment Rank Region Score 1 Hessen, Germany Cincinnati-Hamilton, US Philadelphia, US Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany Vlaams Gewest, Belgium Lombardia, Italy Raleigh-Durham, US Richmond-Petersburg, US Grand Rapids, US Indianapolis, US 176.2

25 World Knowledge Competitive Index High Technology Service Sector Employment Rank Region Score 1 Denver-Boulder-Greeley, US Switzerland San Francisco, US Washington, US Uusimaa, Finland Kansas City, US Stockholm, Sweden Atlanta, US Raleigh-Durham, US Louisville, US 161.1

26 Sales of Services through Cross-Border Trade United States Trade Activity US$ Billions Exports Imports

27 Sales of Services through Cross-Border Trade United States Trade Activity Percent Change, Year Ago Exports Imports

28 Computer Programmers Average Salaries, 2003 Country Salary Range Poland & Hungary $4,800 - $8,000 India $5,880 - $11,000 Philippines $6,564 Malaysia $7,200 Russian Federation $5,000 - $7,500 China $8,952 Canada $28,174 Ireland $23,000 - $34,000 Israel $15,000 - $38,000 USA $60,000 - $80,000

29 Employment by Foreign Firms in U.S. Top Ten States by Percent of Labor Force, 2004 US Subsidiary Employment (Thou.) State Labor Force (Thou.) Percent of Labor Force State Delaware Connecticut South Carolina Hawaii Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey North Carolina Georgia Tennessee US

30 Employment by Foreign Firms in U.S. Top Ten States by Number of Employees, 2004 US Subsidiary Employment (Thou.) State Labor State Force (thou.) California New York Texas Illinois Florida New Jersey Pennsylvania Michigan Georgia Ohio % of Labor Force

31 Employment by Foreign Firms in U.S. by Number of Employees, 2004 Largest Number 2nd Tier 3rd Tier Lowest Number

32 Employment by Foreign Firms in U.S. by Percent of Labor Force, 2004 Highest % 2nd Tier 3rd Tier Lowest %

33 Attributes of Jobs Outsourced No Face-to-Face Customer Servicing Requirement High Information Content Work Process is Telecommutable & Internet Enabled High Wage Differential w/similar Occupation in Destination Country Low Setup Barriers Low Social Networking Requirement

34 Occupations at Risk to Outsourcing U.S. Employment Sectors Employment (2001)* Avg. Annual Salary, 2001 All Occupations (Total Employment) $ 34,020 Occupations at Risk of Outsourcing Office Support 8.6 $ 29,791 Computer Operators 0.2 $ 30,780 Data Entry Keyers 0.4 $ 22,740 Business & Financial Support 2.2 $ 52,559 Computer & Math Prfessionals 2.8 $ 60,350 Paralegals & Legal Assistants 0.2 $ 39,220 Diagnostic Support Services 0.2 $ 38,860 Medical Transcriptionists 0.1 $ 27,020 Total in Outsourcing Risk Occupations 14.1 $ 39,631 Percent of all Occupations 11.0% * Employment in Millions

35 International Investment Patterns Foreign Direct Investment vs. U.S. Direct Investment US$ Billions U.S. Direct Investment Abroad Foreign Direct Investment in U.S

36 Natural Science & Engineering Degrees Yearly Graduates, 1998 Thousands Russia China India Japan So. Korea Germany U.S.

37 Scientists & Engineers in R&D Top 10 Countries Rank Country Number Per Million Population 1 Japan 648,778 5,095 2 Finland 26,378 5,059 3 Sweden 40,534 4,511 4 Singapore 19,737 4,140 5 Norway 18,811 4,112 6 United States 1,201,233 4,099 7 Switzerland 26,762 3,592 8 Russian Federation 501,621 3,481 9 Denmark 18,816 3, Australia 66,775 3, China 705, India 167,

38 Science & Technical Journal Articles Top 10 Countries Rank Country Number Per Million Population 1 Switzerland 6, Sweden 8, Israel 5, Finland 4, Denmark 4, United Kingdom 39, Netherlands 10, Australia 12, Canada 19, New Zealand 2, United States 163, Russian Federation 15, China 11, India 9,

39 Expenditures for R&D Top 10 Countries Rank Country % of GDP US$ Billions 1 Sweden Israel Finland Japan United States Korea, Rep Switzerland Germany France Denmark India China Russian Federation

40 High Technology Exports Top 10 Countries Rank Country US$ Millions US$ per Capita 1 United States 178, Japan 99, Germany 85,958 1, United Kingdom 67,416 1, France 67,191 1, Singapore 62,572 13, China 49, Malaysia 40,939 1, Korea, Rep. 40, Netherlands 38,960 2, Russian Federation 3, India 1,

41 Patent Applications Filed Top 10 Countries Rank Country Number Per Million* Population 1 Finland 195,328 37,459 2 Denmark 197,184 36,425 3 Switzerland 194,547 26,111 4 Austria 197,915 24,210 5 Sweden 193,886 21,575 6 Sierra Leone 116,129 19,737 7 Portugal 198,574 19,623 8 Bosnia & Herzegovina 59,157 14,761 9 Norway 66,213 14, Belgium 139,931 13, United States 156, Russian Federation 65, China 96, India 60, *Minimum Population = 4 Million

42 Current and Projected New Jobs Due to IS Outsourcing, Selected Industries Net New Jobs Industry Group Natural Resources & Mining 1,046 1,182 Construction 19,815 75,757 Manufacturing 3,078 25,010 Wholesale Trade 20,456 43,359 Retail Trade 12,552 30,931 Transportation & Utilities 18,895 63,513 Publishing, Software & Comm -24,860-50,043 Financial Services 5,604 32,066 Professional & Business Services 14,667 31,623 Education & Health Services 18,015 47,260 Leisure, Hospitality & Other Svcs. 4,389 12,506 Government -3,393 4,203 Total Employment 90, ,367

43 U.S. Trade in Services Business, Professional, and Technical Services US$ Billions Receipts Payments

44 US$ Billions U.S. Trade in Services Computer and Information Services Receipts Payments

45 U.S. Trade in Services Research and Development and Testing Services US$ Billions Receipts Payments

46 U.S. Trade in Services Other Business, Professional, and Technical Services US$ Billions Receipts Payments

47 IT Jobs Displaced in the U.S. Including Jobs Lost & Not Created Between 2000 and 2003 Thousands of Jobs ,000 Total IT Jobs Lost Due to: Recession Dot-com Bubble Burst Productivity Gains Over-hiring in 1990s Offshore ITO ,000 IT Jobs Lost or not Created Due to Offshore ITO

48 Purchase of ICT Equipment Offshore Service Providers Buy More ICT Equipment US$ Billions

49 Occupations Projected to Grow Fastest Percent Change in Employment, Medical Assistants Computer Systems Analysts Personal & Home-Care Aides Database Administrators Desktop Publishers Network Systems & Data Comm. Analysts Network & Computer Systems Administrators Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software Computer Support Specialists Computer Software Engineers, Applications

50 Human Capital Dislocation Mitigation Domestic Strategy New Job Policies for Displaced Workers a. Wage Insurance? Entry and Skill-upgrading Policies in a Career-ladder, Technology-related Jobs Where Human Capital Depreciates Rapidly. a. Human Capital Investment Tax Credit Through Firms? Migration/Flexibility Policies to Mitigate Adjustment Costs a. Better Job Opportunities Information? b. Pension and Health Care Portability?

51 US$ Billions Communications Equipment Private Fixed Investment Investment Level - L Percent Change - R Percent Change, Year Ago

52 Risk Spread, 9-11 and Iraq Basis Points Congress authorized use of force in Iraq Sep.11, Bush s Speech at the UN about Iraq 2002 Saddam statue toppled. 2003

53 1.30 Decline of the Dollar 9-11 and Iraq Dollar Per Euro Sep.11, 2001 Bush s Speech at the UN about Iraq Congress authorized use of force in Iraq Saddam statue toppled. 2003

54 Decline of the Dollar 9-11 and Iraq Yen Per Dollar Congress authorized use of force in Iraq Sep.11, Bush s Speech at the UN about Iraq 2002 Saddam statue toppled. 2003

55 US Inflation Percent Change, Year Ago Recession

56 Relative Growth Rates Real GDP Growth China Japan United States European Union Latin America

57 Relative Unemployment Rates China N/A Japan United States European Union N/A Latin America N/A

58 70 Is the World Threatened by U.S. Budget Deficits? Percent of GDP

59 Dow Jones Industrial Average Index 2000= /11 event

60 Declining U.S. Labor Costs Unit Labor Costs Percent Change, Year Ago

61 The Major Creditor of the Post WWII Era: US is now the world's largest debtor -- by far! Creditor to the World Debtor to the World

62 95% of FDI Is Merely To Acquire The Global Assets of US-Based Firms FDI to Acquire Existing US Businesses FDI to Establish New US Businesses

63 Worst Ever US Losses in Current Accounts US Current Account Balance: $541,829,000,000 Daily Deficit of -$1,484,463,000 Deficit Per Minute of -$1,030,877

64 US Trade Balance in Advanced Tech Goods

65 The Explosion of US Federal Debt

66 US Job Growth Almost Entirely In Services Not Exposed to Import Competition Service Providing Jobs Manufacturing Jobs

67 Growth of Real Compensation Per Hour Has Slowed Sharply Since the 1970s

68 Growth of Real GDP Has Remained Within A Reduced, Narrow Range Since the 1970s

69 Federal Revenue Other than Social Security/Retirement: Lowest Level of GDP Since 1942

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74 Regional Innovation Life Cycle Knowledge Creation Patents Licenses Proof of Concept Testing Incubation/ Research Parks Venture Capital Technology Transfer Universities and Research Institutions Federal R&D Regulatory Environment Industry Consortia and Partnerships Conception Maturity Formation Growth Clinical Trials/Prototype Collaborations/ Partnerships Regulatory Approval Business Planning Clusters and Networks Industry R&D M&A Activity Product Pipeline Economies of Scale Value -add Job Creation IPOs/gazelles Labor Market/ Graduates Commercialization

75 2002-'04: First "Recovery" With Stagnant Industrial Output Historic weakness of industrial output from March,'91 to July,'93 Stagnation of Total industrial output from Nov,'01 to March,'04 MBG Information Services

76 2002-'04: First "Recovery" With Stagnant Manufacturing Output Historic weakness of manufacturing output from March,'91 to July,'93 Stagnation of Total manufacturing output from Nov,'01 to March.'04 MBG Information Services

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