Economic Conditions: The Nation, Pennsylvania, and the Region

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1 Economic Conditions: The Nation, Pennsylvania, and the Region James Robey, PhD June 6, 2017

2 Upjohn Institute for Employment Research The Institute is an activity of the Upjohn Unemployment Trustee Corporation, which was established in 1932 to administer a fund set aside by Dr. Upjohn, founder of the Upjohn Company. MISSION: The Upjohn Institute for Employment Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan, independent research organization devoted to investigating the causes and effects of unemployment, to identifying feasible methods of insuring against unemployment, and to devising ways and means of alleviating the distress and hardship caused by unemployment. 2

3 GDP Change Percent Employment Change (000s) Is about 2% growth the new norm? 6 4 Gross Domestic Product and Employment Change 1,500 1, Forecast ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500 GDP Change (L) Employment Change (R) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Consensus Forecast 3

4 University of Michigan RSQE Forecast (Fore ca st) 2018 (Forecast) GDP (Percent) Light Vehicle Sales ($Millions) Unemployment Rate (Percent) Housing Starts (Millions) CPI/Inflation (Percent)

5 Billions ($) Index: 1995 = 100 Consumer confidence rapidly improving Consumer Confidence and Change in Consumer Debt Consumer Debt (L) Consumer Confidence (R) Source: New York Federal Reserve and Conference Board 5

6 Month of Business Cycle Peak = 100 The calendar isn t yet calling for a recession if you trust history Employment Index From Business Cycle Peak present (113 months) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey 6

7 Employment Change (%) National nondurables Projection Gross Product Change (%) Food Beverage and Tobacco Products Textile Mills Textile Product Mills Apparel Leather and Allied Products Wood Products Paper Printing and Related Support Activities Petroleum and Coal Products Chemical Plastics and Rubber Products Source: Moody s Analytics and Upjohn Institute 7

8 Employment Change (%) National durables Projection Nonmetallic Mineral Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Machinery Computer and Electronic Products Electrical Equipment Components Gross Product Change (%) Transportation Equipment Furniture and Related Products Miscellaneous Source: Moody s Analytics and Upjohn Institute 8

9 Employment Change (%) Technology and Services Projection Accounting Gross Product Change (%) Architectural and engineering Computer systems design Data processing Insurance carriers Legal services Management of companies Management; scientific; and technical Office administrative srv Other information srv Other prof; scientific; and technical services Scientific research and development Software publishers Specialized design services Source: Moody s Analytics and Upjohn Institute 9

10 $ Per Million Metric BTU $ Per Barrel Energy rebounding, US and Canadian rig counts up Energy Commodity Prices Natural Gas (L) Crude Oil (R) 0 Natural Gas spot price at the Henry Hub terminal in Louisiana, US$ per million metric BTU; Crude Oil (petroleum) simple average of Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh. 10 Source: International Monetary Fund

11 $ Per Metric Ton (000s) $ Per Metric Ton (0000s) Some recent upturns portend good things are coming? 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Industrial Inputs Commodity Prices 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Nickel (L) Copper (R) Nickel - melting grade; Copper - grade A cathode, LME spot price, CIF European ports. 11 Source: International Monetary Fund

12 Moving on to Pennsylvania 12

13 Employment Change (000s) The State of Pennsylvania 40 Employment Change, Q to Q Health care Construct. Wholesale Transport. and util. Leisure and hospitality Prof. and business Educational srv. Other services Finance -10 [X VALUE] Info. Government Manufacturing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

14 Annual Rate of Sales (in 000,000s) Auto sales have reached a peak? Annualized Rate of U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (in millions) 18.1 (2000 to 2007 Peak) 16.8 (2000 to 2007 Average) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

15 Conditions in Central Pennsylvania Center, Columbia, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Snyder, & Union Counties 15

16 % of Labor Force The labor market is relatively tight 12 Unemployment Rate Central PA Pennsylvania United States 16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

17 The national unemployment rate was 4.9 in Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

18 The national labor force participation rate was 62.8 in 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics 18

19 Continuing to recover from the recession Total Employment Index (2006 = 100) * Central PA Pennsylvania United States *Through September 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 19

20 Manufacturing employment continues to struggle 105 Manufacturing Employment Index (2006 = 100) * Central PA Pennsylvania United States *Through September 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 20

21 Average Weekly Wage ($) Lower wages can be both a good and bad thing 1100 Average Weekly Wage, Private Workers (Nominal$) * Central PA Pennsylvania USA *Through September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

22 Employment Change (%) Regional nondurables: Projection Food Beverage and Tobacco Products Textile Mills Textile Product Mills Apparel Wood Products Paper Printing and Related Support Activities Gross Product Change (%) Petroleum and Coal Products Chemical Plastics and Rubber Products 22 Source: Moody s Analytics and Upjohn Institute

23 Employment Change (%) Regional durables: Projection Nonmetallic Mineral Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Machinery Computer and Electronic Products Electrical Equipment Components Gross Product Change (%) Transportation Equipment Furniture and Related Products Miscellaneous 23 Source: Moody s Analytics and Upjohn Institute

24 Employment Change (%) Technology and Services: Projection Accounting Architectural and engineering Computer systems design Data processing Insurance carriers Legal services Management of companies Management; scientific; and technical Office administrative srv Other information srv Gross Product Change (%) Other prof; scientific; and technical services Scientific research and development Software publishers Specialized design services 24 Source: Moody s Analytics and Upjohn Institute

25 These are pretty consistent across the country Heavy Truck Drivers Registered Nurses Retail Salespersons Sales Reps Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers Licensed Practical Nurses Admin Assist Maintenance and Repair Customer Service Representatives Postsecondary Teachers, All Other Teachers And Instructors, All Other Education Administrators, Postsecondary Medical and Health Services Managers Personal Care Aides Office Clerks, General Top Occupations, Last 90 Days ,000 1,200 1,400 1, Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight

26 Openings in the knowledge economy Software Developers, Applications Computer User Support Specialists Mechanical Engineers Accountants and Auditors Astronomers Computer Programmers Computer Systems Analysts Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists Architectural and Engineering Managers Industrial Engineers Computer Occupations, All Other Civil Engineers Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists Information Security Analysts Engineers, All Other Top STEM Occupations, Last 90 Days Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight

27 Openings in the manufacturing sector Production Workers, All Other Supervisors of Production Workers Helpers--Production Workers Machinists Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers Team Assemblers Bakers Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers Sewing Machine Operators Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems Assemblers Power Plant Operators Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers Extruding and Drawing Machine, Metal and Plastic Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders Top Production Occupations, Last 90 Days Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight

28 So, what keeps me up at night: The changing face of economic development, trading capex for jobs Middle skilled jobs Artificial Intelligence Paying for public goods 28

29 What are middle skill jobs? Jobs that require more than a high-school diploma and at least 6 months of formal onthe-job training, but less than a Bachelor s degree. The majority of individuals employed in these professions are considered middle skilled: 94.6% Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Occupations 84.4% Production Occupations 77.5% Construction and Extraction Occupations 69.7% Health Care Support Occupations 55.4% Protective Service Occupations 29

30 Notable middle skill jobs: Career ladders? Title Total Employment (000s) 2015 Hourly Median Wage $2015 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 1, Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 1, First-Line Supervisors of Office & Administrative Support Workers 1, Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing, except Technical and Scientific Products 1, Maintenance & Repair Workers, General 1, Team Assemblers 1, Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products Carpenters Automotive Service Technicians & Mechanics First-Line Supervisors of Production & Operating Workers Electricians Computer Support Specialists

31 Middle skill employment shares Employment by Skill Level (2015) [CATEGORY NAME] [VALUE] [CATEGORY NAME] [VALUE] [CATEGORY NAME] [VALUE] 31

32 Middle skill employment growth/decline Employment Share by Skill Level ( ) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Low 40.8% 39.9% Middle 34.7% 38.0% High 21.2% 25.5%

33 Middle skill employment trend 8% Employment Change 2000 to 2015 (By Skill Level) 7% 6.8% 6% 5% 4% 3.9% 3% 2% 1.9% 1% 0.7% 0.9% 0% -1% -0.1% Low Routine Low Non-Routine Middle Routine Middle Non-Routine High Routine High Non-Routine 33

34 Warren Buffett queried on AI Buffett said that AI could be "enormously disruptive," yet beneficial in making the economy more efficient. "I would certainly think [AI] would result in significantly less employment in certain areas," he said. "It would be a good thing that would require enormous transformation in how people relate to each other, what they expect of government, all kinds of things. Buffett laid out a theoretical scenario at one of Berkshire's bestknown companies, Geico. The insurer employs about 36,000 people, yet the financial services industry is seen as vulnerable to automation. Buffett asked: What if all of Geico's current functions, aided by AI, could be done by 10,000 people, or a third of the staff? Chip Cutter, Managing editor at LinkedIn

35 How do we pay for public services? If you assume worker displacement due to AI State and local governments across the U.S. are funded by: Income taxes Sales taxes Property Real Personal User fees, excise taxes, permit fees and others How do we support population and services? 35

36 Questions and comments? Upjohn Institute: Jim Robey, PhD Director of Regional Economic Planning Services 36

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