How are Things Going? Thoughts to Southwest Michigan First

Transcription

1 How are Things Going? Thoughts to Southwest Michigan First Jim Robey February 22,

2 Forecasts are optimistic for 2016? 5 Gross Domestic Product and Employment Change 1,000 GDP Change (%) Forecast Employment Change (000s) GDP Change (L) Employment Change (R) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Consensus Forecast 2

3 The employment forecast suggests more modest employment growth in the next two years Annual Employment Change (000,000s) ,000/ mth Consensus Forecast 221,000/mth 197,000/mth* 133,000/mth** Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, *Philadelphia Federal Reserve Consensus Forecast, and **University of Michigan Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics 3

4 Consumers are confident as borrowing indicates Billions ($) Consumer Confidence and Change in Consumer Debt Index: 1995 = 100 Consumer debt (L) Consumer confidence (R) Source: New York Federal Reserve and Conference Board 4

5 Real wages for production workers are flat, but may be on the rise 22 Average Hourly Wage for Production Workers (2015$) Hourly Wages ($) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey and Consumer Price Index 5

6 The calendar isn t calling yet for a recession if you trust history Employment Index From Business Cycle Peak present M1 M6 M11 M16 M21 M26 M31 M36 M41 M46 M51 M56 M61 M66 M71 M76 M81 M86 M91 M96 M101 M106 M111 M116 M121 M126 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey 6

7 National nondurables: growth or no growth? Employment Change (%) Projection Gross Product Change (%) Food Beverage and Tobacco Product Textile Mills Textile Product Mills Apparel Leather and Allied Product Wood Product Paper Printing and Related Support Activities Petroleum and Coal Products Chemical Plastics and Rubber Products Source: Moody s Analytics and Upjohn Institute 7

8 National durables: more of the same? Projection Nonmetallic Mineral Product Primary Metal Employment Change (%) Fabricated Metal Product Machinery Computer and Electronic Product Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Transportation Equipment Gross Product Change (%) Furniture and Related Product Miscellaneous Source: Moody s Analytics and Upjohn Institute 8

9 Mixed national business conditions for 2016 Interest rates remain low following the bump by the Fed in December Fuel prices are expected to remain low Sluggish international markets High value of the dollar Labor and skills shortages Commodity prices are low 9

10 Moving on to Michigan 10

11 Employment growth in Michigan was solid and spread across many sectors 30,000 Employment Change, 2014 to ,000 20,000 Employment Change 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000 Wholesale Info. Manuf. Transport., Util. Construct. Retail Finance Prof. and Tech. Admin. Education Hospitality Health Govt. Other Srv. 11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey

12 Real wages are down since 2007, but may be rising 26 Average Hourly Wage for Production Workers (2015$) 24 Hourly Wages ($) Michigan United States 12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Survey and Consumer Price Index

13 Latest University of Michigan employment forecast shows continued growth Employment Forecast 4 th Quarter to 4 th Quarter ,233 jobs (1.6%) ,000 jobs (1.9%) 2016* 61,100 jobs (1.4%) 2017* 64,800 jobs (1.5%) Source: University of Michigan Research Seminar on Quantitative Economics 13

14 Michigan is following the nation Employment Forecast Annual Change (%) United States Michigan Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Consensus Forecast and University of Michigan Research Seminar on Quantitative Economics 14

15 Next Up, Southwest Michigan 15

16 Employment growth in the region has not been as robust as statewide since the end of the Great Recession 110 Total Employment Index (2001 = 100) *2015 data through second quarter only * Southwest Michigan Michigan United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 16

17 The local labor market is tighter than the state and the nation 16 Unemployment Rate % of Labor Force Southwest Michigan Michigan United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics 17

18 Regional unemployment rates are right in the middle Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics 18

19 The national labor force participation rate was 62.6 in 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Upjohn Institute 19

20 Wages have been flat, but are showing growth in the last 18 months 1050 Average Weekly Wage, All Workers (2015$) Average Weekly Wage ($) * Southwest Michigan Michigan United States *2015 data through second quarter only Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 20

21 Wages in the region are mixed Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Upjohn Institute 21

22 Local Conditions Auto sales are expected to remain solid through 2016 and 2017 Other manufacturing sectors, including furniture and aerospace are flat Labor and skills shortages Commodity prices are low Low unemployment rate Availability of commercial/industrial real estate Lack of investment in residential capital 22

23 Questions and Comments? Upjohn Institute: Jim Robey Director of Regional Economic Planning Services Brian Pittelko Regional Analyst 23