Economic Conditions and Regional Economic Outlook

Transcription

1 Economic Conditions and Regional Economic Outlook Brian Pittelko September 21,

2 Upjohn Institute for Employment Research The Institute is an activity of the Upjohn Unemployment Trustee Corporation, which was established in 1932 to administer a fund set aside by Dr. Upjohn, founder of the Upjohn Company. MISSION: The Upjohn Institute for Employment Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan, independent research organization devoted to investigating the causes and effects of unemployment, to identifying feasible methods of insuring against unemployment, and to devising ways and means of alleviating the distress and hardship caused by unemployment. 2

3 Regional and Economic Planning Services Data Dissemination & Analysis Economic Impact Studies Economic & Workforce Development Strategy Talent Assessment Urban & Regional Planning 3

4 GDP Change (%) Employment Change (000s) Forecasts are flat 6 Gross Domestic Product and Employment Change 1, , Forecast ,000-1,500-2, ,500 GDP Change (L) Employment Change (R) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Consensus Forecast 4

5 M1 M7 M13 M19 M25 M31 M37 M43 M49 M55 M61 M67 M73 M79 M85 M91 M97 M103 M109 M115 M121 M127 Month 1 of Recovery=100 The calendar isn t yet calling for a recession if you trust history Employment Index From Business Cycle Peak present (105 months) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey 5

6 Billions ($) Index: 1995 = 100 Mixed signals from consumers Consumer Confidence and Change in Consumer Debt Consumer Debt (L) Consumer Confidence (R) Source: New York Federal Reserve and Conference Board 6

7 Annual Rate of Sales (in 000,000s) Are sales at a natural peak? Annualized Rate of U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (in millions) (2000 to 2007 Peak) (2000 to 2007 Average) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 7

8 Moving on to Michigan 8

9 Employment Change (000s) Employment is growing in nearly every industry Employment Change, Q to Q Manufacturing Health Finance Prof. and business Admin. Hospitality Retail Construct. Wholesale Info. Transport. and util. Real estate Management Education Other srv. Govt Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey 9

10 Hourly Wages ($) Statewide wages are not matching the national trend 28 Average Hourly Wage for Production Workers (2016$) United States Michigan 10 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey and Consumer Price Index

11 Battle Creek MSA and Kalamazoo- Portage MSA 11

12 Percent of labor force The unemployment rates from the nation to the region have been steadily falling 16 Unemployment Rate U.S. Michigan Battle Creek MSA Kalamazoo MSA 12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

13 Unemployment rates across the region are low 13 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

14 However, labor force participation rates are lower 14 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

15 Index 2006 = 100 Overall employment growth is tapering 110 Total Employment Index (2006 = 100) U.S. Michigan Battle Creek MSA Kalamazoo MSA 15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics and Upjohn Institute

16 Index 2006 = 100 Services have grown similar to national and statewide patterns 120 Services Employment Index (2006 = 100) U.S. Michigan Battle Creek MSA Kalamazoo MSA 16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics and Upjohn Institute

17 Index 2006 = 100 Manufacturing employment growth has outpaced the national rate 120 Manufacturing Employment Index (2006 = 100) U.S. Michigan Battle Creek MSA Kalamazoo MSA 17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics and Upjohn Institute

18 Employment Change (000s) Employment growth in the Battle Creek MSA was mixed in the third quarter 0.35 Battle Creek Employment Change, Q to Q Prof. and business Education and health services 0.15 Manufacturing Construct. Trade, transport., and util. Finance Leisure and hospitality Other Srv. Govt. 18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics and Upjohn Institute

19 Employment Change (000s) Nearly every industry grew in the second quarter Kalamazoo Employment Change, Q to Q Prof. and business Construct. Manufacturing Trade, transport., and Financial activities util. Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Govt Information Other Srv Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics and Upjohn Institute

20 Average Weekly Wage ($) Overall, real wages are rising 1,100 Total Wages ($2016) 1,050 1, U.S. Michigan Battle Creek MSA Kalamazoo MSA 20

21 Average Weekly Wage ($) Manufacturing wages are rising in Kalamazoo, but falling in Battle Creek 1,700 Manufacturing Wages ($2016) 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, U.S. Michigan Battle Creek MSA Kalamazoo MSA 21

22 Percent Change Battle Creek is forecast for slow growth this year and next Battle Creek Employment Forecast Total Goods producing Service providing Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics and Upjohn Institute

23 Percent Change Kalamazoo s forecast shows a sharper drop-off in goods production Kalamazoo Employment Forecast Total Goods producing Service providing Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics and Upjohn Institute

24 Questions and comments? Upjohn Institute: Brian Pittelko Regional Analyst 24