Consensus Summary. Forecast Released September 1, Forecast Forecast

Transcription

1 Consensus Summary Forecast Released September 1, 2010 Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Oregon Texas Utah Washington Wyoming Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Oregon Texas Utah Washington Wyoming

2 Arizona Arizona Department of Commerce Arizona Public Service ASU - Economic Outlook Center Davidson Fixed Income Management ECON-LINC EconLit LLC Elliott D. Pollack & Co Joint Legislative Budget Committee The Maguire Company NAU - BBER Salt River Project Southwest Growth Partners Stellar Capital Management UA - Eller College VisionEcon/Governing Star Group Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Arizona Department of Commerce Arizona Public Service ASU - Economic Outlook Center Davidson Fixed Income Management ECON-LINC EconLit LLC Elliott D. Pollack & Co Joint Legislative Budget Committee The Maguire Company NAU - BBER Salt River Project Southwest Growth Partners Stellar Capital Management UA - Eller College VisionEcon/Governing Star Group Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Arizona Update and Outlook Total Nonfarm lost 16,000 jobs in July which was less than the 1-year average. Government accounted for 12,700 of the losses, with Local Public Education contributing 10, 100 of those losses. State and Local Public education losses were mainly from the summer break. In the Private sector, five sectors lost jobs and five sectors gained for a net loss of 3,300, or -0.2%. The 0.2% loss in the Private Sector is less than average for July. The largest losses in the Private sector were in Leisure and Hospitality (-6,200 or -2.4%) and Educational and Health Services (-1,100 or -0.3%) sectors, which had lower than average seasonal losses. The Arizona unemployment rate remained unchanged for the third month in a row at 9.6%. Arizona Department of Commerce

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4 California Anonymous Chapman University Legislative Analyst's Office Southern California Association of Governments UCLA - Business Forecasting Project University of the Pacific Wells Fargo & Company - MN Woodbury University Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Anonymous Chapman University Legislative Analyst's Office Southern California Association of Governments UCLA - Business Forecasting Project University of the Pacific Wells Fargo & Company - MN Woodbury University Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month California Update and Outlook There is a lot of angst over the high unemployment rates in California and its major metro areas. Overlooked are the bits and pieces of good economic news, such as the increases in international trade and tourism. Also overlooked is the modest recovery in new homebuilding, although this sector is coming out of the basement. There is also a lot of infrastructure working going on around the state. But business is being cautious about hiring, resorting to use of temp workers, and working their employees longer hours. So the unemployment "blues" won't go away soon. Southern California Association of Governments The lowest unemployment rate among California counties in July was 8.6 percent in Marin. Other counties with rates below 10.0 percent in July were: Santa Barbara, Napa, San Mateo, Inyo, San Francisco and Orange. In all, 22 counties had rates below 12.0 percent. The highest unemployment rate in July was 30.3 percent in Imperial County. In total, ten counties had rates above 17.0 percent. The comparable, not seasonally adjusted California rate was 12.8 percent in July. Five areas recorded year-over employment gains, with Mariposa County showing job growth of 3.0 percent or more. In absolute numbers, the largest year-over job gain was in Santa Ana-Anaheim Irvine MD, up 8,800 jobs. The Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale MD recorded the greatest year-over job loss (down 23,500 jobs). California Employment Development Department

5 Colorado Center for Business & Economic Forecasting Colorado Legislative Council Eastern New Mexico University Office of State Planning & Budgeting Summit Economics University of Colorado - Leeds Wells Fargo & Company - MN Xcel Energy Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Center for Business & Economic Forecasting Colorado Legislative Council Eastern New Mexico University Office of State Planning & Budgeting Summit Economics University of Colorado - Leeds Wells Fargo & Company - MN Xcel Energy Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Colorado Update and Outlook The monthly survey of Colorado business establishments indicates the number of nonfarm wage and salary jobs increased 1,900 in July to 2,205,300. Employment increased in five of Colorado s eleven major industry sectors over the month. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 3,100 in July. Education and health services added 1,800 jobs. Trade, transportation and utilities gained 1,300 jobs, information 400, and mining and logging 100. Construction employment declined 1,800. Government and professional and business services each declined 800. Other services and manufacturing each declined 500, and financial activities decreased 400. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased 1.1 percent over the year, or 25,200, from the July 2009 level of 2,230,500. Employment in four of Colorado s eleven major industry sectors increased over the year. Employment in education and health services increased 6,600, government 3,500, other services 600 and leisure and hospitality 200. Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

6 Idaho Idaho Division of Financial Management Idaho Economics Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Idaho Division of Financial Management Idaho Economics Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Idaho Update and Outlook July preliminary estimates show that Idaho Nonfarm employment decreased 0.7 percent from June and closed the year-to-year deficit by a tenth of a percent compared to last month. This is largely the result of continued reductions of temporary census workers, and seasonal declines in State and Local government. Private employment experienced an increase of 2,400 jobs or 0.5 percent with all sectors showing gains except for Trade, Transportation and Utilities, as well as Professional and Business Services. Idaho Department of Labor

7 Montana Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits University of Montana Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month University of Montana Wells Fargo & Company - UT Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Montana Update and Outlook Montana's seasonally-adjusted, non-agricultural payroll employment increased by 1,000 jobs (+0.2%) over the month for July Leisure & Hospitality saw the largest gains with 2,500 jobs added (+4.6%), while Total Government experienced the largest loss with 3,500 fewer jobs (-3.8%). Montana's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 7.3% from June to July Montana Department of Labor and Industry

8 Nevada Current $ Personal Income Gross Gaming Revenues Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Dept. of Employment, Training & Rehab Restrepo Consulting Group, LLC Southwest Gas Corporation University of Nevada at Las Vegas - CBER Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Current $ Personal Income Gross Gaming Revenues Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Dept. of Employment, Training & Rehab Restrepo Consulting Group, LLC Southwest Gas Corporation University of Nevada at Las Vegas - CBER Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Nevada Update and Outlook In July, Nevada's unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth to 14.3 percent, with an estimated 195,800 jobless workers seeking employment. It is the smallest one month increase of the year, but marks the 16th consecutive month the rate has increased to a new record high. Weakness in Nevada's job markets persists with both the public and private sectors reporting less employment over-the-month. In total, Nevada's employers reported 9,600 fewer jobs in July. There were 5,600 less public sector jobs, while the private sector, for the first time since March reported fewer jobs as well. Nevada Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation

9 New Mexico Current $ Personal Income Mfg. Employ. Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Eastern New Mexico University New Mexico State University - CEMAF PNM Resources University of New Mexico - BBER Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Current $ Personal Income Mfg. Employ. Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Eastern New Mexico University New Mexico State University - CEMAF PNM Resources University of New Mexico - BBER Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month New Mexico Update and Outlook Overall, the job situation is starting to look better than it has in several months, even with only three of the state's 13 industries posting year-over-year job growth for July. Ten other industries reported employment declines. The job losses in many cases were in the hundreds, an improvement from previously reported declines in the thousands. The private sector is finally showing clear improvement on the jobs front, while the government sector is going into decline now that temporary census positions are dwindling. The gaining industries are likewise reporting larger job gains than they had earlier this year. The educational & health services industry added the most jobs, up 5,000 since this time last year. The leisure & hospitality industry also added a large number of jobs, up 3,500 over the year. This industry group includes a large number of eating and drinking places as well as an amusement and recreation component. Also adding jobs was the manufacturing industry group, which reported an increase of 700 from this time last year. The July manufacturing gain represents a slight easing from the thousands of jobs the industry recently lost. New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions

10 Oregon Current $ Personal Income Mfg. Employ. Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Conerly Consulting Forefront Economics John Mitchell Oregon Executive Department Portland General Electric Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Current $ Personal Income Mfg. Employ. Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits Conerly Consulting Forefront Economics John Mitchell Oregon Executive Department Portland General Electric Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Oregon Update and Outlook Construction showed a strong gain in July, adding 5,200 jobs, when a gain of only 1,700 is the normal seasonal movement during this summer month. Gains were widespread with all published components adding jobs over the month. Professional and business services added 1,900 jobs, when a gain of 1,200 is the normal seasonal pattern. Services to buildings and dwellings added 500 over the month; it took a beating during the economic downturn, but seems to be clawing back with over-the-year job losses narrowing to 700 in July. Employment services was revised sharply higher for its June reading. The latest estimates peg June jobs at 28,600 and July at 29,700, putting July 400 above the year-ago level. The recent, tentative rebound in employment services is watched closely as a leading indicator of future overall employment patterns. Oregon Employment Department

11 Texas Eastern New Mexico University Econoclast Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Perryman Group Southern Methodist University TX State Comptroller of Public Accounts University of Houston - CPP University of Texas at El Paso Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Eastern New Mexico University Econoclast Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Perryman Group Southern Methodist University TX State Comptroller of Public Accounts University of Houston - CPP University of Texas at El Paso Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Texas Update and Outlook As with most of the U.S., Texas' economic recovery appears to be losing steam. After growing an average of 30,000 per month between January and May, job growth in June was only 14,000. And according to a recently-released report from the BEA, per capita income in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolian area fell 5.2 percent while Houston's dropped 4.9 percent last year compared to a U.S. metropolitan average decline of 2.8 percent. Southern Methodist University Job growth has remained positive, but slowed in recent months. Exports continue to expand and the manufactuing outlook remains positive. In general, modest expansion is occurring across a broad spectrum of sectors, and the state continues to outperform the nation as a whole. Perryman Group Total Nonagricultural Employment grew by 4,600 jobs in July, following a revised increase of 12,200 jobs in June. This was the ninth monthly employment gain in the past 12 months. The July 2010 estimate stood at 10,400,400 jobs. Seven of the 11 major industries added employment over the month. The Professional and Business Services industry had the largest increase of 12,600 jobs, but was offset by a substantial loss in Government employment. The current level of Total Nonagricultural Employment was about the same level recorded in March of 2009 and was less than 250,000 jobs below the peak employment level in August From year-ago estimates, Total Nonagricultural Employment gained 134,600 jobs, a 1.3 percent increase. Texas Workforce Commission

12 Pacificorp Utah Utah Department of Workforce Services Utah State Tax Commission Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Pacificorp Utah Department of Workforce Services Utah State Tax Commission Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Utah Update and Outlook It is encouraging to report that, for the first time in several years, there are more industries adding jobs over the past 12 months than are losing jobs. Only three industries are showing continued year-over losses manufacturing, construction, and government. The worst of the recession appears to be behind Utah. Modest signs of rebound are emerging. But with roughly 75,000 jobs having been removed from the Utah economy over the past two years, not just recapturing those jobs but also making up for the economy's missed potential will translate into a multi-year activity of playing economic catch up. Utah Department of Workforce Services

13 Washington Conerly Consulting Dick Conway & Associates Doug Pedersen & Associates Office of the Forecast Council Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Conerly Consulting Dick Conway & Associates Doug Pedersen & Associates Office of the Forecast Council Wells Fargo & Company - MN Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Washington Update and Outlook Washington state, on a seasonally adjusted basis, shed 2,300 jobs between June and July As was the case between May and June, the losses were primarily due to declining government jobs which more than offset growth in the private sector. Outside of the loss of jobs in the public sector, it was a mildly positive month. Total government lost 5,400 jobs and all three public sectors were down over the month. The private sector added 3,100 jobs in July, led by 1,000 in transportation, warehousing, and utilities. Construction and education and health services grew by 900 jobs over the month. Nonfarm payrolls declined by 14,500 jobs between July of 2009 and Three industries had significant positive job growth over the year: education and health services; professional and business services; and retail trade. Washington State Employment Security Department

14 Wyoming Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits WY Dept. of Administration & Information Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Current $ Personal Income Wage & Salary Empl. Population Growth Single-family Housing Permits WY Dept. of Administration & Information Wells Fargo & Company - UT Consensus - This Month Consensus - Last Month Wyoming Update and Outlook Wyoming saw its first over-the-year job gain in 17 months, as employment increased by 1,000 jobs, or 0.3% from a year earlier. Natural resources & mining (including oil & gas) posted the largest job gains (1,700 jobs, or 6.9%) followed by government (including public schools, colleges, and hospitals (1,600 jobs, or 2.4%). Smaller job gains were seen in many sectors, such as transportation & utilities (400 jobs, or 2.8%), educational & health services (400 jobs, or 1.6%), manufacturing (300 jobs, or 3.3%), wholesale trade (300 jobs, or 3.4%), professional & business services (300 jobs, or 1.7%), and leisure & hospitality (300 jobs, or 0.8%). Job losses continued in construction (-2,600 jobs, or 10.1%), other services (-700 jobs, or 5.8%), and retail trade (-600 jobs, or 1.9%). Wyoming Department of Employment, Research & Planning