Innovantage Demand Barometer August 2018

Transcription

1 Jan Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 EU Referendum Article 50 invoked Innovantage Demand Barometer August 2018 Surge in on-line advertising activity for academic, key support function and customer service occupations Original online job ads in July 2018 were up 16% year-on-year (YoY) - significantly higher than the 7% increase in official job ads.and surged in ads for Teaching Assistants (+69%), Pharmacy professionals (+89%), R&D professionals (+46%), legal professionals (+46%), Store Assistants (+57%) and Advisor / Call Centre workers (+50%) At c.2.11m in July 2018, the number of original job ads captured by Innovantage was 16% higher than in the same month last year but 24% lower than in the month of the EU referendum in June 2016 when there was notably heightened advertising activity. In addition, 0.56m reposts of previous adverts were captured - suggesting that the role was unfilled via the original post and/or it was a role that an employer continually advertises. This equated to 26% of the volume of original ads posted. At 2.67m, the combined total of original job ads and reposts 17% higher than in July 2017, but was 27% lower than in July 2016 the month after the EU Referendum. The number of original job ads, and the total (including reposts), Jan 15 July 18 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Total ads (incl. re-posts) Original ads Set into context of the most recent total number of UK workforce jobs (35.2m in March 2018), the workforce jobs total was just 0.5% (192k) higher than a year earlier and 2.2% (759k) higher than in March 2016 and set in context of the official ONS vacancy number for the quarter ending July 2018 (824k), UK vacancy numbers were 7% higher than the figure one year earlier and 12% higher than in May-July For each official vacancy, employers and their intermediaries posted 2.5 original jobs ads in July 2018 (a ratio of 2.5 to 1): This was higher than the ratio of 2.2 to 1 a year earlier. The ratio of total ads (including reposts) to official vacancies was 3.2 to 1 in July 2018: This was up from 2.9 to 1 in July 2017.

2 Engagement status: 28% of original ads, where the engagement status was specified, were for contingent opportunities There were 1,079k ads (51%) specifying a permanent opportunity in July 2018: This was 8% higher than the figure recorded in July 2017, when perm equated to 55% of all original ads. 72% of all original ads, where the engagement status was specified, were for permanent opportunities. There were 417k ads (20%) specifying a contract or temporary opportunity in July 2018: This was 9% higher than the figure recorded in July 2017, when 23% of ads specified a contingent opportunity. There was a 19% fall in the number of ads highlighting that work was temporary, whilst there was an 18% increase in contract opportunities. 28% of all original ads, where the engagement status was specified, were for contingent opportunities. 28% of original ads in July 2018 did not carry any detail of engagement status: This was up from 22% in July Regional profile: London, East Anglia, Scotland and Northern Ireland face heightened challenges in recruiting Beneath the 16% YoY increase in the volume of original online job ads across the UK, the regional variations were noteworthy. Amongst regions where the YoY increase was higher than the UK average: In London, the volume of original ads was 22% higher than in July In the latest available workforce jobs profile (March 2018), the volume of jobs in London was just 2% higher YoY. Employers and their intermediaries in East Anglia posted 21% more jobs in July 2018 than a year earlier: The number of workforce jobs actually decreased by 1% in East Anglia in the year to March Employers and their intermediaries in Scotland posted 26% more jobs in July 2018 than a year earlier: The number of workforce jobs actually decreased by 2% in Scotland in the year to March Original job ad numbers in Northern Ireland were 28% higher than in the same period last year: The number of workforce jobs was just 1% higher, however, in March 2018 than March All original job ads, by region, June 2017 and July k +22% 405k 330k +4% 317k 175k 157k 157k 201k 153k 124k +15% 190k +21% 172k +10% 166k +9% 130k +5% 112k 82k 122k +8% 103k 42k +26% 49k +17% 37k 43k +16% 13k +28% 54k 99k +84% Jul-18 Jul-17

3 Beyond the 9% overall annual increase in the number of original temporary/contract ads posted in July 2018, the YoY change in the proportion of contingent ads by region should be set into context of an increase in the volume of ads carrying no locational detail. The proportion of perm ads where no location was specified (4%) was higher than the level in July 2017 (2%). The proportion of contingent ads where no location was specified (5%) was higher than the level recorded July 2017 (2%). Above average increases were experienced in a handful of regions (including the North West, East Anglia and Scotland) whilst, in contrast, there was downturns in volumes in London, the South East and South West, the North East and Wales. Original job ads specifying temporary or contract work, by region, July 2017 & July k -4% 96k 67k k -12% 40k +8% 37k 36k 38k +5% 34k -2% 35k 35k 32k -8% 26k +5% 25k 26k +1% 25k 22k 23k +7% 11k +13% -8% 2k 2k +16% 23k +133% Jul-18 Jul-17 Industry profile: significantly above-average increase in demand within critical front-line and support service occupations Percentage change in the number of original job ads, by sector, July All sectors Admin & Support Services Education Retail & Wholesale Professional, Scientific & Technical Human Health & Social Care Accom & Food Service Finance & Insurance +16% +23% +16% +15% +35% +34% +31% +30% Manufacturing +3% IT & Comms Construction -11% -3% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Change in the number of original job ads, July

4 Combined ratio of original job ads & reposts to ONS vacancy numbers (+ reposts as a percentage of original posts), July 2018 All industry average Prof, Scientific & Technical (reposts = 26% original volume) (27%) Construction Info & Comms Manufacturing Admin & Support Services Finance & Insurance (24%) (29%) (24%) (17%) (35%) Health & Social Care Education (27%) (21%) Wholesale, Retail, Transport'n Accom & Food Service (27%) (29%) Original job ads to job vacancy ratio Reposts to job vacancy ratio Professional, scientific & technical Within the Professional, Scientific & Technical industries, a 2% year-on-year (YoY) increase in official vacancies translated into a 30% increase in original job ads. This included a noteworthy 55% year-on-year increase in legal vacancies. The ratio of original ads to official vacancies rose significantly from 4.3 to 1 in July 2017 to 5.4 to 1 this year. When reposts were added, the ratio of total ads was 6.8 to 1 official vacancy notably higher than 5.5 in the same month last year and more than twice the all occupation average (3.2 to 1). Information & communications Despite a 12% annual increase in the number of official vacancies, the number of original job ads and total ads was down 3% year-on-year. There were a few notable exceptions in the underlying occupations, however, including a 22% decrease in original ads for Technical Architects. In contrast original ads Business Intelligence professionals fell by 8% YoY.

5 Manufacturing Whilst the number of official vacancies rose by 16% YoY, original ads and total ads for manufacturing roles rose by just 3% and 4%, respectively. Demand within automotive manufacturing remained a notable outlier, however, with a 39% YoY increase in original ads. In contrast, the all-sector volume of ads for design engineers was 15% lower than in July 2017 and the number of original ads for welders was more than a quarter (26%) lower. Construction Within the Construction sector, the 5% fall in official vacancy numbers was more than mirrored by an 11% fall in original and total ads. Amongst the underlying occupations, there was a noteworthy YoY deterioration in the volume of original ads for construction workers (-17%), for surveyors (-27%) and for roles in civil engineering (-22%). Despite the decline in demand, at 4.4 to 1, the ratio of original ads to official vacancies remains significantly higher than the al occupation average (2.5 to 1), however, highlighting the ongoing resourcing challenges being faced by employers in the sector. Admin & Support Services Whilst the number of official vacancies increased by 10%, YoY, amongst employers working within the Admin and Support Services sector, there was a notable surge in original on-line job advertising (+35%). Amongst the underlying occupations, original ads for PAs increased by 39% YoY and there was a 47% annual increase in ads for Call Centre operatives and Customer Services Advisors. Finance & Insurance Whilst the official vacancy number was down by 1% in in the year to May-July 2018, the number of original was 15% higher in July 2018 than a year earlier. Above-average YoY rises in original ad volumes were seen for Actuaries (+25%), Mortgage (+29%) and Underwriting professionals (+29%).

6 Health & Social Care A 12% year-on-year rise in the official number of Health & Social Work job vacancies remains noteworthy in and of itself. To service the increased demand, however, it required employers and their intermediaries to increase the number of original job ads by 23%. This included an 89% rise in the number of ads Pharmacy professionals, a 32% rise in ads for Nurses and 37% more ads for Mental Health workers. In contrast, the volume of ads for Social Workers was down 40% YoY. The shift towards offering more permanent work opportunities continued, with the proportion of original ads offering this status (where the status was articulated) increasing from 70% to 77%, YoY. Education Whilst there was just 3% YoY increase in official vacancies within the education sector, the number of original job ads through which employers and their intermediaries were seeking to fill the marginally increased demand surged by 34%. As with Health & Social Care, this suggests a significant tightening in the availability of workers within the Education sector. Notable YoY rises in advertising activity were witnessed for roles as supply teachers (+40%), Headteachers (+39%) and Teaching Assistants (+69%). A 23% annual increase in ads for Lecturers suggests the FE & HE sectors are also experiencing challenges. Accommodation and Food Service Whilst the official number of vacancies within the Accommodation & Food Service sector was 2% lower than the same period last year, original job ads were 16% higher. Amongst the underlying occupations, there was a noteworthy increase of 36% in the volume of original ads for Baristas. Wholesale, Retail, Transport & Storage Whilst the number of official vacancies was 4% lower in May-July 2018 than a year earlier, employers and their intermediaries posted 31% more original ads in July 2018 than in the same month last year. It is amongst Store Assistants that the greatest challenge appears to be being faced, with original ad numbers up 57%, year-on-year. In addition, the number of original ads for Store Managers increased by one third (33%) YoY.