Carbon Finance in Africa

Transcription

1 Carbon in Myths and and Realities Jan Kappen, Programme Manager & Carbon Unit, UNEP-DTIE Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

2 Carbon in Myths and and Realities Myth #1 Nobody is developing Carbon Projects in Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

3 Global Distribution of CDM Projects Global distribution of CDM Project in 2007 (yellow = projects in pipeline, red = registered projects) Source: UNFCCC (2008) Anybody out out there? Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

4 n CDM Projects to date - Overview Registered projects Egypt Morocco Nigeria South Tanzania Tunisia Uganda n projects at validation Tunisia 10% Tanzania 3% South 34% Annual CERs Uganda 1% Egypt 25% Nigeria 23% Morocco 4% DR of Congo Egypt Kenya Mali Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Nigeria Senegal South Tanzania Uganda Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

5 Development of CDM Transactions in 3% 5% 2% <1% Source: Ambrosi/Capoor (2009) emerges in in the the Carbon Market! Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

6 WRONG! Myth#1 vs. Reality - The CDM in Project pipeline is building up Higher project risks play a role, but not a decisive one Slow validation and approval processes are increasingly becoming a bottleneck Project-per-capita ratio not that bad is just a late starter CDM pipeline reflects reality better than registered projects or CERs issued Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

7 Carbon in Myths and and Realities Myth #2: n Potential for Carbon is insignificant Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

8 Carbon n Potential Estimate of GHG Emission Reduction Potential in 2010, 11% Middle East 11% Latin America & Caribbean 6% Asia, 72% Source: Jotzo/Michaelowa (2005) disposes of of a significant share of of the the global potential for for GHG mitigation and and sequestration. Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

9 n GHG Emission Profile Sector Distribution of GHG Emissions in 49.1% 36.6% 7.5% 6.8% -25.5% Industrial Agriculture Waste Land use change and forests Source: UNFCCC (2008) Small industrial potential + predominance of of bioenergy, agricultural, land land use use change and and forests sectors. Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

10 CDM in the Forestry and Agriculture Sectors? Growth of worldwide CDM transactions by sector 1400 Million CERs Afforestation & Reforestation Fuel switch Efficiency Renewables CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed HFC & N2O reduction Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Source: UNEP Risoe Centre (2006) Global transaction t volume in in the the forest sector very very low, low, agricultural projects non-existent. Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

11 Forest Carbon in A Closer Look Carbon emissions Carbon uptake Forest emissions Non-Forest Land Use n Forests Slash&burn Reforestation Forest Ecosystems Shrinking forests, growing emissions. Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

12 Forest Carbon in GHG Mitigation and Sequestration Potential Technical potential for GHG emission reductions in the forest sector (Mt CO2eq/yr in 2030). Not (yet) eligible under the CDM! Forest Management 5% Reforestation 35% Reduction of Deforestation 60% Source: IPCC (2008) Total = 1,920 Mt CO2/yr Total forest-based GHG reduction potential is is equal to to times the the potential under the the CDM*! (*) Estimate grand total, all sectors, based on Ambrosi/Capoor (2006) Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

13 Agricultural Carbon Emissions in A Global Comparison Technical potential for GHG emission reductions in the agriculture sector until 2030 (Mt CO2eq/yr). Source: Smith/Martino (2007) n potential for for GHG emission reductions in in agricultural sector as as big big as as China+India combined. Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

14 WRONG! Myth#2 vs. Reality - n Potential for Carbon Lack of potential is not the problem neither is lack of demand demand for forest carbon rapidly growing, Voluntary/institutional buyers love n potential is just very different from the CDM mainstream Different sectors Different scale Different methodologies CDM pipeline does not reflect true potential - existing methodologies poorly suited Terms of next commitment period (post 2012) will be crucial Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

15 Thank you! For more info : Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May

16 Carbon Beware of Myths, Hot Air and Pipedreams Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May