AERC and Diaspora. Lemma Senbet* University of Maryland

Transcription

1 AERC and Diaspora Lemma Senbet* University of Maryland *Keynote address at the 25 anniversary celebration of African Finance and Economic Association, ASSA Conference, San Diego, January 5, 2013

2 BACKGROUND

3 Background Africa is Rising In late 50s into early 60s most African countries were regarded at par or ahead of most developing countries in Asia and Latin America in terms of economic development. Yet, Africa s growth performance has long been disappointing, referred to as a tragedy by some commentators. But changing: Africa growth renaissance Africa rising!

4 Africa: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators (Pre-crisis) Selected Indicators Real GDP Growth Rate Per Capita Income ($) ,042 1,161 1,291 Domestic Investment Ratio (%) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Foreign Direct Investment flows ($B) N/A Export Growth, volume (%) Terms of Trade (%) Trade Balance ($ billion) Net Total ODA flows ($B) N/A Total External Debt (% of GDP) Debt Service (% of Exports) Source: African Development Bank statistics

5 Africa On the Move Pre-Crisis Period In the aggregate, Africa began rising in the wake of the 21st century and had, in fact, experienced, what amounts to growth renaissance That was before it got caught up in the global crisis. GDP growth of 5.2% for the three year period ( ) prior to the crisis, outpacing population growth Inflation was brought under control Improvement in fiscal discipline Declining debt burden/increasing capacity for debt service Increasing foreign investment and remittance flows

6 Performance not Accidental Payoffs to Reforms Impressive performance outcomes are payoffs to economic and financial sector reforms not accidental Extensive economic and financial sector reforms over the last two decades, including large scale privatization programs as well as measures to empower private initiative, measures for capital market development Emergence of stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa as a particularly interesting feature, including a regional market

7 Challenges and Role for Diaspora African Financial Development Gap Banking depth: The liquid liabilities of financial sectors averaged about 30 percent of GDP for Sub-Saharan Africa The indicator averaged 50% or more for Latin America, East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa Banking intermediation: Things even worse on this score: the pre-crisis 2007 average private date credit provision scaled by GDP was half the size for other developing countries

8 Summary statistics Variable World (minus Africa) Africa Mean Standard Deviation Mean Standard Deviation Liquid liabilities / GDP 64.2% 47.4% 27.5% 17.7% Private credit / GDP 57.7% 45.3% 17.6% 22.7% Stock Market Capitalization / GDP 52.1% 60.0% 25.6% 43.8% Stock Market Value Traded / GDP 34.1% 50.9% 6.5% 20.0% Ln(Population) Ln(Population density) Natural resources Offshore center 4.4% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% Ln(Per capita income) Population * GDP per capita Real GDP growth rate 4.1% 2.5% 4.8% 2.7% Inflation rate 5.2% 5.2% 9.3% 15.0% Current Account balance / GDP 0.2% 8.1% -3.8% 6.7% KKM index Bank concentration Foreign ownership share 27.1% 25.9% 44.4% 24.4% State ownership share 15.9% 19.7% 13.3% 16.6% Manufacturing / GDP 16.8% 6.1% 11.0% 7.3% Secondary/Primary school enrollment Roads / Area Railroads / Area Urban population 63.6% 20.7% 36.2% 17.2% Geographic branch penetration Demographic branch penetration

9 Measuring African Financial Development Gap Measuring the African financial development gap: Obtain predicted levels of financial development for SSA countries, based on regression analyses of other low- and middle-income countries For the majority of SSA countries, the actual levels of banking sector development are below predicted levels Analyzing determinants of financial development: Population density seems to matter more for Africa; Natural resources curse : Similar in Africa and elsewhere; Macroeconomic conditions and institutional environment: Not as important 9

10 Private credit/gdp: Actual vs. predicted values 10

11 Explaining the African Financial Development Gap Liquid liabilities / GDP Private credit / GDP All Without South Africa All Without South Africa (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Ln(Population) ** (0.026) (0.026) (0.031) (0.030) (0.024) (0.023) (0.022) (0.021) Ln(Population Density) 0.074*** 0.080*** 0.075*** 0.077*** * 0.049** 0.043*** 0.061*** (0.019) (0.022) (0.020) (0.024) (0.018) (0.020) (0.014) (0.016) Natural Resources (0.036) (0.047) (0.037) (0.049) (0.033) (0.041) (0.027) (0.034) Offshore Center Ln(Per Capita Income) * (0.035) (0.078) (0.037) (0.080) (0.032) (0.068) (0.027) (0.056) Population * GDP Per *** *** Capita (0.520) (0.508) (1.12) (1.197) (0.477) (0.442) (0.816) (0.834) Real GDP Growth Rate (1.031) (1.057) (0.898) (0.736) Inflation Rate (0.192) (0.196) (0.167) (0.136) Current Account Balance / GDP * (0.587) (0.656) (0.511) (0.457) KKM Index 0.116* 0.119* (0.062) (0.063) (0.054) (0.044) Manufacturing / GDP (0.455) (0.470) (0.396) (0.327) Secondary/Primary Enrollment (0.247) (0.252) (0.215) (0.175) Constant 0.548*** 0.528*** 0.545*** 0.518*** 0.297*** 0.260* 0.275*** 0.309*** (0.078) (0.2613) (0.079) (0.3044) (0.071) (0.130) (0.058) (0.243) Adjusted R Observations/Countries

12 Good News out of Africa Post-Crisis Stock market phenomenon Stock exchanges have proliferated in Africa Two decades ago, just 5 in SSA and 3 in North Africa; now about 25 stock exchanges in Africa The phenomenal growth was registered particularly in Sub- Saharan Africa, excluding the older markets in South Africa and Egypt Despite the challenges faced in terms of low capitalization and liquidity, recent performance of African stock markets has been remarkable, both in absolute and risk-adjusted basis Mobile Banking and the Rise of Equity Bank Toward resolution of financial development gap also promotion of integration of informal/formal.

13 Resilience and Diversity of African Economic Performance Overall, African economies have been resilient to the global crisis The effect of the crisis was, nonetheless, significant The growth dropped to 2.5% from a three-year pre-crisis average of 6% [Channel for crisis transmission] However, no bailouts, no large bank failures, no large company failures Growth has resumed, even accelerating For years, oil and other commodities have been drivers of growth, but currently non-oil producing countries are growing at a similar rate Now seven African countries are among the fastest growing in the world SSA is growing faster than Asia, except China and India

14 Seizing the Momentum Call for Greater Diaspora Engagement Urgency for Africa stakeholders to seize the momentum Africans Diaspora US trading partners Development partners The stakeholders should have a voice in the development of policies regarding business, investment and trade and research and training to inform economic policies in Africa

15 African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) Established in 1988 A not-for-profit organization incorporated in the US (Delaware Corporation) Registered in Kenya as an international, notfor-profit organization and operates under a host country agreement with the Government of Kenya

16 AERC Core Agenda Capacity building for advancement of economic policy research and training: Locally-based economic researchers Academics Policy practioners Promote retention of such capacity Research Arm Training Arm: Masters and doctoral programs Policy Arm: Forums for direct interface with policy makers Network

17 AERC Research Develop a credible local capacity for policy-oriented research Thematic Programs Poverty, Income Distribution and Food Security Macroeconomic policies Trade and Regional Integration Political Economy Finance and Resource Mobilization

18 AERC Research Monitoring and Support Biannual research workshops Biannual plenary conferences Peer review: a network of African researchers External review: a network of resource people drawn from around the globe Technical workshops and individual technical sessions Financial support for various stages of research development: New proposals, WIP, Final Report

19 AERC Collaboration and Policy Dialogue Collaborative research program Large-scale projects to team up African researchers and their counterparts elsewhere To sustain interest in African economic research by those outside the region To generate policy-relevant literature for African academic and policy communities Senior Policy Seminar Senior scholars research program: new initiative to sustain the interest of senior African researchers

20 AERC Training Arm Graduate training programs in economics to support individual studies and enhance capacity of economics departments, including agricultural economics, in SSA public universities Goal: deliver economic programs that meet international standards but relevant to Africa. Joint efforts of participating universities Common curriculum and its development by participating universities Joint development of teaching materials Joint facility for teaching elective courses Joint enforcement of standards through annual evaluation, including external examiners

21 AERC Collaborative Training Programs Collaborative Masters Program (CMAP) 20 participating universities (9A and 11B) A send their students to B Ag Econ and Applied Econ (CMAE) Collaborative Ph.D Program (CPP) Participants: Cape Town, Dar, Ibadan, Nairobi, Benin, Wits, Younde II, Cocody Joint facility for electives Thesis workshops at AERC biannuals Academic boards and Role of AERC

22 AERC Network Researchers Resource persons Students Universities Governance bodies Other stakeholders in the Consortium

23 AERC Governance Board of Directors Institutional Members At large members Executive Director reports to the board and an ex-officio member of the board Program Committee Leading scholars, policy makers, international resource persons, ED Academic boards (mostly heads of participating universities) AERC Secretariat

24 AERC Global Resource Partners Donor governments International organizations African organizations Private foundations

25 AERC is an African Success Story Over 2500 researchers supported Over 600 thematic research projects Many who have gone through AERC programs are now at high places in leading African policy institutions, universities, and other institutions (e.g., numerous governors of central banks, successive chief economists of the African Development Bank) AERC poised for the next level of excellence

26 My Vision The AERC will be globally recognized as a premier capacity building institution in the advancement of research and training that inform economic policies in Africa, particularly SSA. This vision globalizes my understanding of the vision of the AERC founders for sustainable development of SSA based on policies guided by rigorous research and training. Global integration of the AERC at the center of agenda With increasing global interconnectedness, need to keep abreast of advances globally and promote best practices in whatever we do.

27 Strategies Global integration Resource sustainability Branding and enhancing profile Identifying and building comparative advantage for AERC Fostering culture of excellence

28 Global Integration of AERC AERC should strive for best global practices in its research and training programs. Researchers should target high quality international conferences and outlets for presentations and publications. Expanding network to have productive partnerships with African and non-african institutions to foster frontier research and training. Global integration strategies are consistent with the AERC s mission of building and retaining local capacity. Beyond local capacity building, AERC should also encompass a strategy for brain gain. Brain gain and retention of local capacity can be mutually reinforcing.

29 Resource Sustainability Mobilizing Africa-based resources Formulating value proposition for policy institutions in Africa Effective communication of what the AERC has achieved in the policy arena, senior policy seminars, collaborative research programs, and even highlighting the AERC impact on regulatory human capital Mobilizing private-sector resources Devising a strategy for the value proposition for the private sector Targeting both Africa-based and external private firms, including the Diaspora Expanding the AERC agenda to embrace the private sector issues both in research and policy Transparency and governance, risk management capacity, access to capital, financial regulation, and capital market institutions Gradually building endowment Possible seeding: channeling a small fraction of current contributions

30 Enhancing AERC Profile Effective communication strategy that reaches out to all the stakeholders, including policy makers and donors, so that AERC s programs and outreach are widely appreciated. Providing clarity for what the AERC stands for, what it has accomplished over the years, and what it wishes to achieve moving forward. Leveraging global integration strategy to enhance profile Utilizing the growing network of alumni, researchers, resource persons, and visiting faculty and partner institutions as vehicles Adherence to best practices in research generation by targeting first-tier publication outlets and exposure of AERC research at first-tier forums around the world.

31 Leveraging AERC s Comparative What really sets AERC apart? Advantage Adapting to changing landscape in policymaking in Africa and beyond Remaining vibrant and relevant as an institution The more obvious differentiators include the extensive network and credible efforts for the AERC research to reach policy circles, the CPP, and national research institutes, etc. Need to solidify and scale up But also visualize a new frontier that leverages what has already been accomplished. For instance, is there sufficient integration between research and training? The CPP can be a vehicle for that purpose. AERC s comparative advantage can also be enhanced by its global strategies (see above), as well as building research databases and minimization of diversity gap: under represented countries and women

32 Strategies for Diaspora Engagement Institutional linkages University Centers (e.g., CFP-Maryland) Think Tanks (e.g, NBER) Resources Human and financial Diversity: both ideas and resources Collaborative Research Programs Collaborative training programs Mentoring program Advisory board