2011 ICP Progress Report

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized INTERIM REPORT TO THE EXECUTIVE BOARD 2011 ICP Progress Report As of August 20, 2013

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As the 2011 Round of the ICP enters its last year, efforts at national, regional and global level are multiplying to ensure that the program is proceeding according to the planned timeline and the 2011 ICP final results can be released in December 2013, without sacrificing data quality. In its last meeting on February 24, 2013 in New York, it was decided that the Global Office would submit a short report to the Board on a bi-monthly basis to keep the Board informed of the progress of activities and meeting critical milestones. This is the third of a series of bi-monthly reports promised to the Board in The remaining milestones until the publication of the final results are highlighted in Section 4 of this report. Since the last report to the Executive Board, the Global Office received new submissions of data and metadata from regions in July Section 2 of this report highlights the status of data and metadata submission as of August 20, The Global Office compiled the data and metadata and shared them with the ICP Validation Expert Group and the PPP Computation Task Force who are currently computing the preliminary results for the 2011 round of the ICP. The preliminary results will be shared with the ICP Executive Board in September They will also be shared with the ICP Technical Advisory Group and Regional Coordinators for discussion at their September 23-27, 2013 meetings. Section 3 of this report provides updates from the regional programs, relating primarily to their regional timetable and major milestones including finalization of data and metadada and release of regional results. 2

3 Contents Executive Summary Introduction Data and Metadata Submission to the Global Office Updates on the Progress of Regional Programs Schedule of Remaining Global Milestones

4 National Annual Averages for Global Core List items Importance Indicators Regional Basic Heading PPPs Survey Framework Questionnaire Participation 1 INTRODUCTION At its 8 th meeting held on February 24, 2013, the ICP 2011 Executive Board requested the Global Office to submit a short report on a bi-monthly basis to keep the Board abreast of efforts being made at all the levels to effectively meet all critical milestones. Accordingly, the purpose of this progress report is to provide summary information on recent and ongoing activities with specific emphasis on: (i) data and metadata submission to the Global Office; (ii) updates on the progress of regional programs; and (iii) schedule of remaining global milestones. 2 DATA AND METADATA SUBMISSION TO THE GLOBAL OFFICE Since the last report to the Executive Board in June 2013, the Global Office received new submissions of data and metadata from regions in July Tables 1-3 below show the status of data and metadata submission as of August 20, Table 1: Household Consumption Main Survey Data and Metadata Submission Region Africa Asia-Pacific CIS Latin America Western Asia Caribbean Pacific Islands (a) n/a n/a Iran Georgia EUROSTAT-OECD n/a 47 (Dual Participation) (3) (3) (3) (0) (4) Total (a) Pacific Islands are collecting data for regional items only and not Global Core List items. Their results will be linked via three linking countries to the global results. The submission statistics for national annual averages have increased significantly (c.f. Chart 1) with the submission from Caribbean islands. The current amount of data allows the global validation of Household Consumption (HHC) global core prices to be carried out for 177 countries, covering all countries from Africa, Asia-Pacific, CIS, Western Asia and Eurostat-OECD, 16 countries from Latin America out of 17 (94%), and 22 Caribbean countries out of 23 (96%). In Latin America, data is still being validated for Cuba and will likely be incorporated at a later stage. In the Caribbean, Guyana joined the program quite late and there is a risk that its data may not be received in time to be included in the final results. Pacific Islands have submitted average prices for their regional items and regional basic heading PPPs, and plan to submit a final dataset in October

5 Housing - Rentals Housing - Quantity Water (a) Private Education Compensation of Government Employees Machinery & Equipment Construction Regional Basic Heading PPPs Participation Regional basic heading PPPs were also provided for those countries that submitted price data, except singleton countries where special treatment for linking will be implemented. Chart 1: Data Submission for HHC in Comparison to June 20, June National Annual Averages for Global Core List items August Regional Basic Heading PPPs Table 2: Special Surveys Data and Metadata Submission Region Africa Asia-Pacific n/a CIS (b) n/a 9 n/a Latin America 13 4 n/a Western Asia Caribbean n/a Pacific Islands n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 21 Iran n/a 1 Georgia n/a 1 n/a n/a n/a 1 EUROSTAT-OECD (b) n/a n/a (Dual Participation) (2) (3) (2) (2) (3) (3) (2) (3) (4) Total (a) In some regions like Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, prices for water services were collected as part of the main household price survey. (b) Eurostat-OECD provided housing rental data for 29 countries according to the ICP method for testing purposes. The special survey on private education does not apply to Eurostat-OECD, as they estimate their private education PPPs using a different method than ICP regions. Using the ICP method, construction data was provided by 9 Eurostat-OECD countries and 1 CIS country for linking purposes. 5

6 As shown in Chart 2, the global validation of the housing rental data will include 140 countries (up from 112) and the validation of the housing quantity data will include 134 countries (up from 116). Private education data now includes 128 countries (up from 119). As noted under Table 2, not all the countries are meant to submit data for these surveys and the country coverage for each survey is sufficient for global linking purposes. Chart 2: Data Submission for Housing and Education Special Surveys in Comparison to June 20, June August Housing - Rentals Housing - Quantity Private Education Chart 3 shows that the country coverage for compensation of government employees includes 175 countries (up from 154). For machinery and equipment, the coverage has increased to 172 (up from 147) while the number for construction remains at 111. Both numbers are sufficient to carry out the global linking process. Chart 3: Data Submission for Government and Gross Fixed Capital Formation Special Surveys in Comparison to June 20, June August Compensation of Government Employees Machinery & Equipment Construction 6

7 Breakdown to 155 ICP Basic Headings for 2011 National Accounts Quality Assurance Questionnaire National Accounts Exhaustiveness Questionnaire 2011 Population 2011 Exchange Rates Participation Table 3: National Accounts Expenditure Data and Metadata Submission Region Africa Asia Pacific CIS Latin America Western Asia Caribbean Pacific Islands n/a n/a n/a Iran Georgia Eurostat- OECD 47 n/a n/a (Dual Participation) (3) (2) (2) (4) (4) (4) Total Detailed GDP expenditure data was provided for 175 countries (up from 145 in the previous submission). This increase can be attributed to additional data submitted from countries in Asia, Africa and Caribbean islands. Chart 5: Data Submission for National Accounts Expenditures in Comparison to June 20, June Breakdown to 155 ICP Basic Headings for 2011 August The Global Office compiled the data and metadata and shared them with the ICP Validation Expert Group and the PPP Computation Task Force who are currently computing the preliminary results for the 2011 round of the ICP. The preliminary results will be shared with the ICP Executive Board by end-september 7

8 2013. They will also be shared with the ICP Technical Advisory Group and Regional Coordinators for discussion at their September 23-27, 2013 meetings. 3 UPDATES ON THE PROGRESS OF REGIONAL PROGRAMS Africa The regional program in Africa is progressing as expected. An iterative price data validation process has continued between the African Development Bank (AfDB), the Global Office and participating countries. Following the Price Data Validation Workshop held in Abidjan, Cote d Ivoire from March 11-22, 2013, the AfDB submitted price data for 50 countries which have since been reviewed by the Global Office and sent back to the AfDB to perform another round of data validation. A re-submission of the data along with the survey framework questionnaires, population data, and exchange rates was completed in July For national accounts, following the Regional Data Validation Workshop held in Nairobi, Kenya July 15-19, 2013, the AfDB has since submitted national accounts data for 50 countries to the Global Office. The Global Office and international consultants are expected to assist with the computation of results during the first week of September The Africa regional coordination team is holding a retreat to review computation procedures and draft the outline of the ICP regional report. In parallel, the data are being fine-tuned to further assure the quality before proceeding with PPP computations and other indicators. Following this process, data will be resubmitted to Global Office by the end of August The AfDB is planning to submit the preliminary results to ICP participating countries at the end of September, which may require marginal revisions prior to submitting the final results and metadata to the Global Office in October The preliminary results will be presented to the AfDB in early November 2013 followed by a press release and a presentation of the final results to NSO Director Generals in December Publication of the main report, report summary and a user-friendly report titled, Africa in the World is planned for April-June Asia-Pacific The Asia Pacific regional program is progressing well with most of the outstanding issues being resolved. On gross domestic expenditure values by 155 basic headings, all countries have submitted their preliminary data. However, selected countries have indicated that the 2011 preliminary GDP data is being finalized and revisions would be submitted to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) by mid-september On the prices front, while major issues on both household and non-household sectors have been resolved, dwelling services still remains to be finalized. At a May 2013 Experts Group meeting convened by the ADB with participation by members of the Technical Advisory Group, a mixed quantity and rental approach was explored, but data limitations forestalled this approach. Subsequently, at the Expert Group meeting July 31-August 1, 2013, various other options were explored to use the quality adjusted quantity data with a second level of quality adjustment to dwelling services to reflect the quality differences of houses among the various income groups of countries in the Asia Pacific region, yet no decision was finalized. Barring any unforeseen events, the ADB intends to release at least the electronic version of the Asia Pacific regional results by mid-november 2013, while targeting the release of the hard copy at the same time. A report, similar to the report released by the ADB for the 2005 ICP is expected to be published in 8

9 mid-november Drafting of the report is ongoing and the report will include the usual explanatory chapters on organization, governance, methodology, data collection, software used, linking, country experiences, and 2011 ICP results. Revisions to the 2005 real expenditure values arising from revisions to the 2005 nominal national is likely to be appended. CIS The work on comparisons in the CIS region is being carried out in a timely manner in accordance with the adopted schedule. In July 2013, the CIS-Stat updated the CIS ICP data based on validation discussions with countries. The results were directed to the CIS countries for final verification and confirmation. The remaining submission of ICP-Quality Assurance Framework checklists will be done by the end of October An experimental linking of the CIS to the global results will be discussed between CIS experts and the Global Office in October Also in October 2013, the members of the CIS ICP Coordination Council will discuss the obtained results of the CIS ICP 2011 and decide on the set of results to be published. In November-December 2013, the CIS-Stat will publish an electronic version and a hard copy of the regional results, accompanied by a press release. In April 2014, the members of the CIS ICP Coordination Council will determine the dissemination policy for 2011 ICP results, which will contain brief methodological recommendations and result tables. All efforts will be made to disseminate global and regional 2011 ICP results via press conferences, presentations at regional and national users meetings, and the CIS-Stat website. Latin America and the Caribbean The regional program in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is progressing in a timely manner. In July 2013, a set of revised data and metadata for the two regions were sent to the Global Office, incorporating the feedback received during the 9 th Regional Coordinators meeting. Pending issues include an evaluation of the data for Cuba, validation of construction data for the Caribbean, and a review of the preliminary results for the Caribbean. ECLAC is working to solve the issues by the end of August Although the full data set will be accounted for in the final submission, some Caribbean data did not meet the deadlines for the VEG/CoTaF submission and hence will not be reviewed in the upcoming meetings. Furthermore, LAC provided water data that may not be used due to their items list management system. Consequently, the Global Office is expected to have the full set of data and metadata by the end of October A high-level LAC meeting in Santiago is scheduled from September 9-10 to discuss preliminary/final results with member countries. The results will then be shown to Heads of NSOs during the meeting of the Statistical Conference of the Americas in November 2013 in Santiago. Final results will be released in December ECLAC plans to publish the results before or simultaneous to the release of the global results. Latin America and the Caribbean will have separate press releases and publications of their data, which will contain all of the statistics and methodological details, including an analysis of final results. Western Asia The Western Asia regional program is progressing according to the globally set timetable. ESCWA was assiduous about the quality of collected data since it plays the major role in the quality of the final indicators, and was thus very keen on submitting clean and validated data to the Global Office. In this 9

10 perspective, ESCWA introduced the participating countries to the many surveys of the program and provided them with the required training for the usage of the ICP Kit. Regional workshops were organized for the 2011 ICP round in addition to two national accounts workshops and national training and technical assistance workshops for most of the participating countries. Upon the completion of the 2011 ICP Round, the Western Asia region will publish the final PPP tables along with the final regional report and the major findings. The electronic version should be released in December 2013 whereas the publication of the complete hard copy will be launched in March 2014, featuring the global and regional results as well as the major findings and analysis. The region is considering different mediums of communications and the choices are still under study. Outreach activities are also being considered to promote the program at both regional and global levels. Pacific The regional program for the Pacific is progressing on schedule. A fourth and final data validation workshop was held in Brisbane, Australia in June 2013 and all countries are close to finalizing their data. The Pacific region expects to deliver a final dataset of prices, importance indicators and (proxy) expenditure weights, together with updated metadata questionnaires, to the Global Office in October Some further work will be required to implement the proposed method for linking the Pacific using three suggested linking countries. Given the limited nature of the dataset for the Pacific, publication of the results could take place shortly after submission of final data to the Global Office. However, a detailed report is also planned and will include the results of the current round, lessons learned, and plans for ensuring that the Pacific is able to participate more fully in the next round. Finalizing the content of the report will require discussion with all interested stakeholders and publication is unlikely before the end of Outreach/communication activities have not been considered in any meaningful way at this stage. However, with the data and metadata nearly close to final, the region intends to convene a round of meetings with key stakeholders to discuss outreach/communication issues and other issues associated with the publication of results. Georgia The bilateral comparison between Georgia and Armenia has been completed and finalized. The proposed text along with the four tables to be included in the report have been sent to the Global Office. Two of the tables cover, with some additions and omissions, the standard ICP analytical categories. One table refers to 2011, the other to The two other tables refer to One covers goods and services by type of good or service; the other provides a breakdown of final consumption expenditure. The report has still to be approved by senior management in Geostat and Armstat. Publication is expected to be towards the end of the third quarter of Dissemination will be through the Geostat and Armstat websites. The Global Office will be asked to put the report up on its website. The Global Office has already received final price data and metadata. Revised expenditure and population data will be sent shortly. No outreach activities are planned. Iran The bilateral comparison between the Islamic Republic of Iran and The Republic of Turkey is being carried out according the agreed schedule. Preliminary price and metadata will be submitted to the Global Office by the end of August 2013, and final data and metadata by the end of October The results of 10

11 the bilateral comparison will be included in the Global ICP publication, while the country level publication, outreach and communication activities are yet to be decided by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the ICP national coordinator for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Eurostat-OECD PPP program Eurostat and OECD sent the latest update of consumer goods and equipment good prices to the Global Office in the beginning of July. The final versions of all prices data, basic heading expenditures and PPPs will be submitted by November 30, SCHEDULE OF REMAINING GLOBAL MILESTONES The upcoming Executive Board meeting is scheduled for October 30 th, The schedule of major remaining milestones for 2013/2014 is shown in Table 4 below. Table 4: Major Remaining Milestones for 2013/ Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Short report to the EB Preliminary results for HHC confidentially circulated to the EB, TAG, and RCs 9 th TAG and 10 th RCs meetings Short report to the EB 9 th EB meeting Potential revision of final 2011 data and metadata, in response to comments by the TAG and RCs Preliminary results for GDP confidentially circulated to the EB, TAG, and RCs 10 th EB meeting (if needed) Report to the 45 th session of the UNSC Release of 2011 ICP Global Results Publication of 2011 ICP Final Report 11