Kiva Labs Impact Study

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1 TYPE: Call for Expression of Interest EMPLOYER: Kiva Microfunds LOCATION OF JOB: Remote POSTED DATE : 20 June 2017 CLOSING DAT E: 7 July 2017 Kiva Labs Impact Study Kiva is seeking Expressions of Interest (EOI) from well-established international research institutions, universities and/or individual consultants to carry out a multi-year study of the impact and underlying mechanisms of our Field Partners programs. This impact evaluation project is funded by Kiva, and will be jointly implemented by Kiva and the applicant, here onwards called Research Partner. Further details on the 4-year Kiva Labs program are provided below. All impact assessment practitioners in microfinance programming are invited to submit an EOI and the shortlisted candidates will be contacted for an initial discussion, the final candidate will be invited to develop a joint proposal with Kiva. The EOI must be received by 5:00PM PST on 7 July If there are any questions related to the expression of interest, please them to Adithi Shetty, Kiva Labs Project Manager at labs@kiva.org. TABLE OF CONTENTS A. BACKGROUND B. OVERVIEW AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY Program Selection C. METHODOLOGY Sampling & Design Data collection Data Analysis D. OUTCOME & PERFORMANCE STANDARDS E. Budget F. TIMELINE OF ASSIGNMENT G. PROPOSAL SUBMISSION DETAILS APPENDIX I: THEORY OF CHANGE APPENDIX II: LEARNING QUESTIONS

2 A. BACKGROUND Kiva.org offers low-cost, risk-tolerant capital to financial services providers in low-income communities. A central goal of this service is to encourage financial service provider s (FSP) to take on the risks inherent in trying to develop new products designed to meet the needs of the poor. Founded in November 2005, Kiva is a major nonprofit internet platform in the United States that offers individuals (lenders or users) opportunities to support economic development and entrepreneurship, predominantly in developing countries, through partnerships with local institutions/financial service providers (FSPs). As part of its mission to alleviate poverty and create more economic opportunity by connecting people through lending, Kiva facilitates the collection and transfer of zero interest philanthropic capital, funded by its lenders, to approximately 300 active MFIs and other socially-minded NGOs and enterprises (collectively Field Partners ) around the world to fund interest-bearing loans to clients in their communities. Since its launch Kiva has enabled over 1.3M lenders to lend a total of more than $750M to more than 1.75M entrepreneurs in 86 countries while maintaining a 97% repayment rate on its loans. Kiva Labs, a MasterCard funded program is a new initiative that follows through on this goal, working directly with MFIs and social enterprises (SEs) in Africa to help them design and evaluate new products. The goal of the program is to deepen the outreach and impact of financial services to the most underserved part of the market through the extension of an innovative, low cost, re-finance model that incentivizes loan products with high impact potential. The Kiva Labs program will reach clients in at least 24 African countries at the project outset. The proposed program has two primary objectives: To test and develop new financial services and products for the poorest and most vulnerable households, especially smallholder farmers, in Sub-Saharan Africa - Kenya and Rwanda (Activities 1 and 2); and To evaluate the impact of these innovative products and services on client productivity and overall standard of living with at least two Field Partners based in different geographical locations - Kenya and Rwanda (Activity 3). B. OVERVIEW AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY This impact study is related to Activity 3 with the aim to conduct rigorous and cost-effective impact evaluations with at least two of Kiva s Field Partners. Kiva will use this evidence to build a common understanding of how rural and agricultural financial services can improve welfare in agrarian economies. This will directly inform Kiva s investment priorities, while promoting replication of promising programs. Kiva Labs will transfer relevant lessons learned across its portfolio of 56 partners in 25 African countries, and help move the sector forward by addressing gaps at product, and institution levels and sharing learnings at the ecosystem level. To this end, Kiva Labs is seeking a partnership over four years ( ) to assist in the study of client impact with particular emphasis on smallholder farmers and rural, excluded populations. The research partnership will involve support for evaluation project set-up and study design, ensure high quality implementation, data collection, analysis and reporting. Applicants are encouraged to use subject

3 matter expertise and creativity in designing their proposed approach to the project objectives outlined in this document. Refer to the Theory of Change and Learning questions added to the end of this document as appendices. Program Selection The evaluation will begin by identifying a financial product or service that is both innovative and available for study. Kiva Labs is currently working to identify suitable Field Partners and products. Our first step will be to establish that the implementing Partner organization has the capacity and interest in impact evaluation, and that a valid sample can be identified and interviewed. Among such organizations, our interest will be in studying financial products that are specially tailored to the needs of local smallholder farmers and members of agrarian economies. This leads to a broad set of questions on which we might focus such as: (i) Can farmers invest more or smooth consumption more easily when offered flexible repayment conditions tailored to agriculture's cash flows? How are investment decisions different when loan contracts expect one-time repayment after harvest instead of on a recurring basis? How does risk taking change when loan contracts include deferment or default options in the event of negative shocks? (ii) Are there complementarities between microloans and supplemental services like business training, micro-insurance, or behavioral nudges or formal accounts to encourage savings? C. METHODOLOGY The program s focus is to provide rigorous evidence on the role of rural and agricultural financial products in clients household finances. A parallel goal is to develop a low-cost, generalizable impact measurement framework that Kiva can implement with a wider range of Field Partners. The dual priorities in any such effort are (1) credible, rigorous, causal, impact estimates and (2) low-cost, sustainable data collection methods. Given these priorities, applicants are encouraged to suggest a study methodology on how to measure impact pathway(s) of Field Partners based on interpretation of this intervention. Kiva and the final selected Research Partner will then work together to develop a comprehensive study methodology early in the project. Sampling & Design Of central importance is the construction of a valid comparison group that is similar but for participation in the program of interest. To speak to marginal improvements over existing products, a comparison group will consist of borrowers taking loans from the Partner organization, but not participating in this new program. To speak to the total impact of the Partner s services, Kiva Labs will recruit a group of non-client households who would, if offered, have participated. Kiva Labs will be able to open applications to a large sample of potential borrowers and select randomly via lottery. However, practical constraints may dictate that applicants be selected in a non-experimental manner. In this case, the emphasis will be on a clear and transparent understanding of the enrollment criteria to allow for causal inference, by way of regression discontinuity or some matching estimator.

4 Data collection A baseline survey will provide with the basic understanding of respondents backgrounds and their initial level of welfare. If possible, Kiva Labs will work with partners to integrate this effort with their standard intake documentation, so that our study can form part of an ongoing client-level monitoring system. Near the end of the standard loan term, we will aim to collect information on welfare and basic business activities. These two surveys will be an opportunity to collect data on a large number of clients, and generate an ongoing administrative dataset for monitoring and product testing. Any data collection done by Partner staff will need to be brief, relying on some index-based welfare metric instead of measuring total income or consumption and taking care not to ask for information already available in administrative data systems. Care also needs to be taken to reduce incentives for reporting bias and the risk of eliciting information which clients are uncomfortable sharing with their creditors. Finally, longer-term effects (after the full loan term) will be examined with a follow-up survey using methods with low marginal costs. The first means of controlling cost will be conservative survey design. This can include consumption-based indices that require fewer questions while still capturing short-term changes in welfare, or contingent surveys in which questions selected vary by clients' primary occupation. It may also include digital methods tools exploiting mobile networks, be it by SMS or guided or automated phone calls. Reducing the marginal cost of additional waves also lets Kiva Labs think strategically about the trade-off of sample size and panel length in optimizing power calculations. In the longer-term, this focus on cost effectiveness also goes to our second goal of creating a low-cost framework for following up with borrowers across a wide range of Partners. Data Analysis Analysis of the resulting datasets will depend on research design with a strong emphasis on transparency and pre-specification. Outcomes of interest and specific estimation strategies will be documented and discussed with external experts well in advance of data collection, and a pre-analysis plan will be made widely available. Data will be published and shared as widely as possible within the relevant privacy and security constraints. D. OUTCOME & PERFORMANCE STANDARDS Kiva Lab s approach to monitoring and evaluation (M&E) stresses: the use of the impact evaluation study results for both improving programs and proving effects; the unambiguous need for low-cost impact evaluation study methodologies; and the need to balance rigor with feasibility to create a research study that will be both used and useful. Kiva Labs is still in the very early stages of discussing opportunities for impact evaluation with Field Partner organizations. Our focus will be on interventions and products that are designed and led by the Partner themselves. Data collection will emphasize methods with low marginal cost and those which can be integrated into built-in administrative data systems. In this early stage, we welcome any insights into what questions seem most worth asking and which methods seem most appropriate for our context. Further, Kiva Labs impact evaluation study will be designed to facilitate learning during the

5 implementation process as well as to identify program effects at its close. Kiva Labs and the Research Partner will jointly develop a cost-effective impact evaluation study to document the what, who, and how of program activities, outputs and outcomes. A number of benchmarks will be developed and refined with the Research Partner during the program s start-up and will be used to assess where performance is on track and where program activities may need revision. These potential benchmarks should be informed by the theory of change and learning questions provided in the appendices I and II. E. Budget The foreseen total budget for this impact study, including all costs, fees, taxes and expenses, is USD $400,000. F. TIMELINE OF ASSIGNMENT The 4-year Kiva Labs evaluation study will be implemented between 2017 and In the initial years, we expect the intervention design and data collection to take place. In the final year, the program will prepare to close-out activities and shift to knowledge dissemination. A tentative timeline is as follows, but a phased approach may be needed due to different implementation schedules in the two countries - Kenya and Rwanda: 2017 Elaboration of study methodology leading up to a full research plan; pilot study Baseline data collection Midline data collection Endline data collection Delivery of final report, other dissemination activities G. PROPOSAL SUBMISSION DETAILS Please submit the following no later than 5:00PM PST on 7 July 2017 to Adithi Shetty, Kiva Microfunds, 875 Howard St, San Francisco, CA 94103; labs@kiva.org. Electronic versions preferred. Responses will be considered on a rolling basis before that date. 1. A technical approach, which describes how you will carry out the tasks outlined above, along with performance benchmarks and suggested timeline over a three-year period; 2. A summary of recent and relevant M&E international development projects, including in Africa; 3. An estimate of the fees to be charged, an estimate of expenses that would be incurred, and justification for the indirect cost rate, if applicable; 4. Resumes of all consultants who would be involved in the project; 5. Names, phone numbers, and addresses of individuals at three nonprofit organizations who have been your clients during the last eighteen months and whom we can contact as references. We will hold discussions with candidates during the week of 10 July, If you have questions, please

6 them to Adithi Shetty, Kiva Labs Project Manager at APPENDIX I: THEORY OF CHANGE APPENDIX II: LEARNING QUESTIONS Intervention Level High-Level Learning Question Partner Specific Learning Questions Source of data/learning activities to answer question (up to 3 per question) Expected timing Client Impact How does access to high-quality RAF products improve the wellbeing of clients? How does access to high-quality RAF products lead to changes in investment behavior? Collection of client survey data in collaboration with partner in the course of an impact evaluation. Year 2 How does a given product help clients improve the material welfare of household members? Integration of welfare data into partners administrative systems & establishing a data sharing process. Anualy

7 Client Satisfaction Which financial services and channels are most valued by financially disadvantaged clients? What do clients most often say is missing from RAF products and services? What extant features do they value most? Collection of client survey data in collaboration with partner. Integration of client feedback into administrative systems & establishing a data sharing process. Year 2 Year 2 Institution What drives the Business Case for providers to serve the financially disadvantaged? What is the business case for RAF; what are the keys to business model sustainability? Do more impactful RAF products tend to come at higher cost or risk and why? To what extent do subsidized capital and default guarantees offset the costs of product innovation? Kiva s internal due diligence reports & portfolio data (especially the impact and risk models) Discussions and surveys used for understanding the constraints facing partners. Narrative case reports produced by Kiva to explain partners business constraints. Q1 each year Ongoing Year 3 Ecosystem What constraints prevent promising RAF products from being adopted? Do information constraints act as barriers to adoption of new RAF products? Discussions and surveys used for understanding the constraints facing partners. Ongoing What is the appropriate supporting role for funders to play in relieving these constraints? How can relevant information regarding risk and impact best be shared across institutions? Narrative case reports produced by Kiva to explain partners business constraints. Year 3

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