Projection of Municipal and Industrial Water demands for the Nile Basin

Transcription

1 The assignment described in this ToR is funded through NBI member country contributions, German Government and the European Union through the EU BMZ program on transboundary water cooperation for the Nile Basin. Projection of Municipal and Industrial Water demands for the Nile Basin Terms of reference for an Individual National consultant to Support data collection 1. Introduction The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is a partnership of the 10 Nile Basin riparian states with a shared vision objective to promote sustainable socio economic development through the equitable utilization of and benefit from the shared Nile Basin water resources. NBI has three programs, namely, the Basin Wide Program implemented by the NBI Secretariat located in Entebbe, Uganda, the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) implemented by the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) located in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) implemented by NELSAP Coordination Unit located in Kigali, Rwanda. The ENSAP and NELSAP focus on preparation and implementation facilitation of investments in water infrastructure in the Eastern Nile sub basins and the Nile Equatorial Lakes sub basins, respectively. The Basin Wide Program has a geographic scope of the entire Nile Basin and focuses on facilitating the dialogue among the riparian countries, carrying out analytic work (such as strategic water resources analysis) to inform the dialogue, formulation of transboundary policies, strengthening basin monitoring and data sharing and capacity development for cooperative water resources management. To support the on going strategic water resources analysis, the Nile Sec has employed a team of international consultants to develop projections of water demand and scenarios of water saving from key uses in the Municipal and Industrial sectors, hereinafter referred to as demand Projection Consultant in order to support the activities that will be carried out by the consultants Nile SECintends to employ a local/national consultant to support in data collection and other activities outlined in this TOR, hereinafter referred to as the Assignment. This document presents the Terms of Reference for the Assignment. The Consultants shall be selected competitively based on Nile SEC s procurement procedures. Because of the nature of the assignment, the National Consultants shall be resident in the following countries that are participating in the project Burundi, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. One consultant shall be selected per country.

2 2. Background The NBI Secretariat (Nile Sec) launched its strategic water resources analysis in 2015 and completed the first phase in The strategic water resources analysis is aimed at developing options of measures (water resources infrastructure and management options) for meeting the growing water demand in the Nile Basin sustainably reducing the stress on the river system and minimizing water allocation related tensions among the riparian countries. The first phase of the analysis focused on water supply and demand assessment and yielded estimates of water availability and water demands/uses as of 2014 and projections into Further, a Nile Basin water resources model was developed, which included existing water infrastructure and those planned to be implemented in the 2050 time horizon. According to plans compiled from the Nile Basin countries, irrigated agriculture is expected to expand approximately by 60 percent of the 2014 baseline. Further, irrigation water demand is expected to remain the main water user (estimated to consume up to % of water) in the foreseeable future. According to UN estimate 1, total population of the basin countries is projected to reach 932 Million to 1.14 Billion inhabitants (low and high growth variant). Further, the proportion of the population living in urban areas is increasing with implication in water demand growth. The first phase estimated current (as of 2014) M and I water demands for selected urban centers but no projection was made for Therefore, the Nile Sec intends to refine current estimates of M and I water demand/use and projections into the 2050 time horizon. Further, in order to support generation of options for meeting the growing water demand more efficiently, the Nile Sec plans to develop options for water saving in the M and I water use sectors. 3. Objective The purpose of this consultancy service is to support Nile SEC and the team of demand projection consultants contracted by Nile SEC through collecting and analyzing national data related to use of water for municipal and Industrial within the Nile basin based according to data requirements outlined by the Nile sec. The specific objectives of the assignment includes: i) Develop methodology for secondary data collection and identification of relevant data sources. ii) Conduct data collection based on outlined list of data requirements and submit the database and corresponding metadata. iii) Engage in data verification and validation as specified by M&I projection consultant iv) Participate in meetings and workshops as required to get feedbacks 1 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision,

3 4. Scope of work The scope of work shall include the secondary data collection, processing, consulting and any other analytic work on secondary data preparation that will be needed to carry out the projections. Work closely with M&I projection consultant to gather the dataset from relevant institutes based on the data requirement outlined by M&I consultant Liaise with the M&I consultants throughout the project period Follow up with data providers if the collected data needs clarification or missing information Establish communication channels with consultant and arrange regular meetings He/she will need to build on that database, filling information gaps through primary research. The data will also need to be refined, analyzed and presented in a standardized format in order to facilitate effective data visualization. The Consultant shall be responsible for the completeness and quality control of all data collected which shall be supervised by M&I projection consultant Identify sources of data Collect data and using the data collection questionnaire prepared by the M&I water demand projection consultant Submit the collected data to NBI / M&I consultant in a standardized format provided by the M & I consultant. The scope of work includes, but not limited to, the following Tasks: 1) Planning: Develop methodology and identify data sources a. Identify data sources based on data requirements that will be outlined by the M&I projection consultant. These data sources might include but not limited to national master plans, primary data collected by ministries and municipalities, national census data, and other relevant national and regional institutes. b. After reviewing the required list of data, the consultant shall propose the appropriate methodology for secondary data collection, compilation and processing. Data analysis might include gap filling, data validation/verification and documenting in appropriate format for archive. This methodology shall be reviewed and agreed by Nile SEC and the M&I projection consultant before data collection. c. Review existing database at Nile SEC and provide feedback 2) Data collection: a. The Consultant will be responsible for conducting the data collection as per the agreed methodology Submit draft version of dataset

4 The consultant will facilitate the online survey for data collection that is developed by the M&I projection consultants 3) Data analysis: Data analysis, validation and database preparation a. The consultant will be required to carry out quality control of data collected and this shall be supervised by the Demand forecasting consultant b. Based on the agreed methodology the consultant will carry out data gap filling in order to comment and document on the process and finding. c. Carry out primary statistics and calculate trends etc.. for time series datasets. d. Build database (GIS and Spreadsheet) consistent with the framework developed by the M &I projection consultant e. Metadata containing all the relevant information about the data source, data collected and description of analysis on the data. 4) Reporting: Data report and handover a. Submit a final report containing documentation on findings, gap filling process etc.. b. Participate in discussion meetings with NBI and the M&I projection consultant and provide feedback c. Submit final version of dataset d. Communicate with the M&I projection consultant during the planning and data collection phases. Communications could include s, skype calls, telephone conference calls, etc. 5. Deliverables / Schedule The deliverables of the Assignment are given in table below. The Assignment is expected to start on/about 15 th April 2019 and lasts for 2 calendar months, Indicative milestone plan is shown in Table below. No Title and description due date from start, Weeks 1 Inception report: describing methodology and any preliminary findings 2 2 Draft Database 6 3 Final Database and Data report 8

5 6. Level of effort, budget and payment schedule The total level of effort for this assignment is expected to be 20 man days distributed over the contract period from on/about 1 st February 2019 to 31 st March The Client shall pay the consultant a total professional fee of USD (to be determined based on agreed daily professional fee rate). Cost for work related travels for the consultant shall be separately paid by the Client as per prevailing regulations of the NBI. It is estimated that the consultant shall undertake one trip to the NBI region. The total travel related costs shall not exceed USD xxx. All travels will have to be approved by the task manager and arrangements for the Consultant shall be made by the Client, according to NBI rules and procedures. Payment schedule: payment of professional fee shall be made against deliverables accepted by the client. The proposed payment schedule is given in Table 3. Table 3: Payment schedule No Payment condition: acceptance by client of deliverables listed below: % payment 1 Inception report submitted 10 2 Draft Data base 40 3 Final Database and Data report Implementation arrangement The consultant shall sign contract with NBI Secretariat. The contract shall be a lump sum contract where payment shall be upon submission of acceptable deliverables (see deliverables list and payment schedule above). The Nile Sec shall be responsible for the technical oversight. The Nile Sec shall designate one of its senior staffs as the task manager to whom the Consultant shall report. The consultant shall work from his/her home venue and partly from the NBI secretariat. 8. Minimum qualifications and experience The national expert should meet the following academic and expertise as a minimum: An MSC or equivalent degree in regional development, integrated water resources management or related fields. Educational background in statistical analysis and data processing will be added advantage Working knowledge of a GIS, spreadsheet and database application

6 Proven relevant work experience with at least 3 similar assignments A minimum of 7 years of work experience out of which about 5 years should be related to urban water management. Good communication and presentation skills 9. How to Apply Interested applicants, should send their current Curriculum Vitae and a cover letter to the following dedicated address sechydro@nilebasin.org The closing date to receive applications shall be not later than 5.00 pm East African Time, on 10 th April, 2019.