2012 Manufacturing & Distribution Monitor
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1 2012 Manufacturing & Distribution Monitor Paul Marvel Northeast t Practice Leader Manufacturing and Distribution ib ti Assurance Practice Leader at McGladrey October 4, 2012 NEPIRC 2012 McGladrey LLP. All Rights Reserved.
2 About McGladrey 80+ year history 5 th largest accounting, tax and business consulting firm in the U.S. McGladrey provides services to more than 8,000 midsize manufactures and distributors across the nation 75 U.S. offices; offices in 85 countries worldwide 6,500 professionals nationally, 32,000 worldwide 1
3 Real GDP forecast 6% 4% Real Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2005 Dollars) NAM Forecast 6% 4% 2% 2% 0% 2% % 2% 4% Real GDP Forecast: 1.8% (2011) 6% 2.1% (2012) 4% 6% 8% 10% 2.1% (2013) No Fiscal Cliff 0.5% (2013) Fiscal Cliff 8% 10% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NAM calculations, Moody s Analytics simulation model 2
4 NAM forecast: Assuming a fiscal cliff There will be a recession in 2013, with negative real GDP in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate will increase to over 9 percent by mid Industrial production will slow to a near-standstill in Manufacturing employment will decline by at least 300,000 in Source: NAM calculations using Moody s Analytics simulation model 3
5 Percentage growth in real GDP and contributions to real GDP of goods and services 5.0% 4.1% 4.0% 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 2.5% -0.2% -0.1% 0. 9% 1.3% 0.4% -0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 00% 0.0% Q4:2010 Q1:2011 Q2:2011 Q3:2011 Q4:2011 Q1:2012 Q2: % Real GDP Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Services Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 4
6 ISM manufacturing indices Purchasing Managers Index New Orders Index Employment Index Inventories Index Source: Institute for Supply Management 5
7 U.S. is the global leader in labor productivity Manufacturing value-added per worker United States Japan United Kingdom Republic of Korea Canada France Germany Italy Spain Mexico India Brazil China $28,226 $28,051 $14,105 $13,266 $92,960 $84,565 $76,346 $71,529 $63,992 $60,842 $56,208 $51,576 $118,419 Source: United Nations, Bureau of Labor Statistics, International Labor Organization 6
8 Employment situation Millions of Workers 14 Employment Situation Unemployment Rate 11% % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Unemployment Rate 4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7
9 Largest net employment gains by sector Manufacturing Sectors with the Largest Net Employment Gains YTD, in Thousands of Employees (December 2009 to August 2012) Transportation Equipment Fabricated Metal Products Machinery Motor Vehicles and Parts Primary Metals Plastics and Rubber Products Semiconductors and Electronic Components Electrical Equipment and Appliances Food Manufacturing Beverages and Tobacco Products Computer and Electronic Products Miscellaneous Manufacturing Computer and Peripheral Equipment Chemicals Leather and Allied Products Petroleum and Coal Products Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 8
10 Top 20 states for manufacturing job creation December 2009 to July 2012 (in Thousands of Workers) Michigan Ohio Texas Indiana Illinois Washington Wisconsin Iowa Minnesota Tennessee Oklahoma South Carolina Kentucky Pennsylvania Georgia North Carolina Colorado Utah Missouri Oregon Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 9
11 Manufacturing job hires and separations 550 (January 2007 to June 2012) Job Openings Hires Separations Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 10
12 Building permits, starts and completions higher in June 2012 vs. June 2011 Housing Starts, Permits (in thousands of units) 2,500 Housing Market Situation NAHB Housing Market Index 80 2, ,500 1, Housing Starts Housing Permits NAHB Housing Market Index Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Home Builders 11
13 State profile- Pennsylvania State job growth decreased 0.2% in August 2012 from a year ago; national job growth rose 0.2% State unemployment averaged 8.1% in August 2012; the national average was 81% 8.1% Per PBJ on September 21, 2012, 12,000 PA. Companies are exporters, nearly 90% are small-midsize midsize companies with fewer than 500 employees. Penna. Collected $2.4B in General Fund in September, which was $44 million above estimates. YTD September 2012 was $60 Billion, which is $10.7 million above estimates. Exports rose 1.0% to $20.5 billion in the first four months of 2012 from a year ago. Venture capital investments in PA increased by 34 deals in the 2 nd Quarter compared to 44 deals in 1 st Quarter 2012 ($ million compared to a year ago). 12
14 13
15 Demographics and key findings Report released September total participants p Manufacturers Distributors ib t - 42 PA respondents 77% private or closely held businesses - Mostly CEO s and CFO s 12% private equity-owned businesses 14
16 Topics covered in the McGladrey 2012 Manufacturing & Distribution Monitor Business conditions Sales New products and services Workforce Inventory Process improvements Information technology 15
17 The number of thriving and growing companies remained steady 56% 16
18 Thriving and growing: Manufacturing and distribution 42% 53% 6% PA Respondents 17
19 Thriving companies by industry segment * Transportation Energy and Cleantech Food and Beverage Biotech, Life Sciences and Medical Equipment/ Supplies Automotive (OEM and Aftermarket) Industrial and Commercial Machinery Metal Fabrication Computers, Electronics and Electrical Components/ Appliances Chemicals, Petroleum and Plastics Furniture and Fixtures Aerospace Wood/Paper Products and Printing Building Materials Textiles, Apparel and Accessories 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 18
20 Industrial and Commercial Sector in biggest decline Industry Sector Thriving in 2011 Thriving in 2012 Aerospace 34% Automotive (OEM and Aftermarket) 57% 45% Biotech, Life Sciences and Medical Equipment/Supplies 38% 45% Building Materials 24% 28% Chemicals, Petroleum and Plastics 48% 40% Computers, Electronics and Electrical Components/Appliances 52% 41% Energy and CleanTech 41% 48% Food and Beverage 44% 47% Furniture and Fixtures 17% 34% 20% Decrease Industrial and Commercial Machinery 63% 43% Metal Fabrication 47% 41% Textiles, Apparel and Accessories 29% 16% Transportation Equipment 52% 50% Wood/Paper Products and Printing 25% 29% 19
21 Business optimism and the outlook for growth U.S. Economy dropped 15% World Economy dropped 33% 20
22 Business optimism by PA respondents All Respondents PA Respondents Your Company 84% 86% Your Industry 60% 71% BRIC Countries Economy 57% 61% U.S. Economy 47% 41% World Economy 17% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: McGladrey 2012 Distribution Monitor 21
23 Corporate objectives in the next 12 months 22
24 Taxes pose a major concern 23
25 Thriving and growing companies expect increases in sales U.S. sales increase by business condition (averages) Non-U.S. sales increase by business condition (averages) 24
26 Increase expectations in U.S. sales by industry sector Percent increase expected over next 12 months Biotech, Life Sciences and Medical Equipment/ Transportation Equipment (other than Aerospace Food and Beverage Building Materials Chemicals, Petroleum and Plastics Energy and Cleantech Industrial and Commercial Machinery 9.6% 9.4% 8.8% 8.8% 8.7% 8.7% Computers, Electronics and Electrical 84% 8.4% All Responses Metal Fabrication Automotive (OEM and Aftermarket) Wood/Paper Products and Printing Aerospace Furniture and Fixtures Textiles, Apparel and Accessories 8.3% 8.1% 7.4% 7.0% 6.6% 6.2% 6.0% 12.2% 25
27 Importance of new products and services to company growth 26
28 Cost expectations over the next 12 months 27
29 Inventory level changes 28
30 Inventory level changes for PA respondents in the next 12 months 50% PA Respondents 45% 44% 40% 35% 30% 29% 25% 20% 15% 15% 10% 5% 7% 5% 0% Decrease 11% or > Decrease 1-10 % No Change Increase 1-10 % Increase 11% or > 29
31 Strategies to maintain margins 30
32 Approximate percentage increase in sales prices in next 12 months 31
33 Net income is expected to increase 32
34 Capital expenditure changes in the next 12 months Information technology is the biggest target for all companies 33
35 Most midsize companies likely to increase workforce Two thirds of companies (67%) are expected to increase employment levels - 67% 2012 vs. 56% in Private equity companies are most likely to increase hiring (76%) - 85% of T&G companies plan to increase workforce where 42% of declining companies plan to reduce workforce 34
36 Finding skilled talent 35
37 Companies are attempting to address the skills gap 36
38 Skills Gap Initiative: The Manufacturing Institute State Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Connecticut Florida Illinois Indiana Iowa Kentucky Michigan Organization Business Council Of Alabama Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry Arkansas State Chamber of Commerce California Manufacturers and Technology Association Connecticut Center for Advanced Technology & Connecticut Business and Industry Association Manufacturers Association of Florida Illinois Manufacturers Association & Tooling and Manufacturing Association Conexus & Indiana Manufacturers Association Iowa Association of Business and Industry Kentucky Association of Manufacturers Michigan Manufacturers Association 37
39 Skills Gap Initiative: The Manufacturing Institute Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Nevada New York North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania South Carolina Tennessee Texas Washington Wisconsin Minnesota Chamber of Commerce Mississippi Manufacturers Association Missouri Association of Manufacturers & Missouri Chamber of Commerce and Industry Northern Nevada Development Authority Manufacturers Association of New York/MACNY North Carolina Chamber of Commerce Manufacturing Advocacy and Growth Network & The Ohio Manufacturers Association Manufacturers Association of South Central Pennsylvania South Carolina Chamber of Commerce Chattanooga Regional Manufacturers Association San Antonio Manufacturers Association Association of Washington Business & Impact Washington Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce 38
40 Process improvements 39
41 Use of business analytics by senior leadership by business condition 40
42 Social media 41
43 Perception of information and data risks 42
44 Best practices of thriving and growing companies Have increased and plan to increase U.S. and non-u U.S. sales Corporate objectives are all about infrastructure Plan to use the following sales strategies to drive growth: - Increased penetration in existing markets - New customer segments - New products and line extensions Hiring talent by proactively addressing skills gap Have a mature continuous improvement culture Annual investment in R&D is higher compared to others 43
45 Corporate objectives of thriving and growing companies 44
46 Best practices of thriving and growing companies Companies that indicated they were thriving and growing plan to use the following sales strategies to drive growth and think that they are important or extremely important Increased penetration in the existing markets New customer segments New products & line extensions 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Declining 50% Holding Steady 40% 85% 77% 75% 80% Thriving & Growing 30% All Respondents 20% 10% 0% Sales Strategy: Increase Penetration 45
47 Best practices of thriving and growing companies Companies that indicated they were thriving and growing plan to use the following sales strategies to drive growth and think that they are important or extremely important Increased penetration in the existing markets New customer segments New products & line extensions 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Declining i 50% Holding Steady 40% Thriving & Growing 30% 58% 58% 62% 59% All Respondents 20% 10% 0% Sales Strategy: New Customer Segments 46
48 Best practices of thriving and growing companies Companies that indicated they were thriving and growing plan to use the following sales strategies to drive growth and think that they are important or extremely important Increased penetration in the existing markets New customer segments New products & line extensions 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Declining i 50% Holding Steady 40% Thriving & Growing 30% 61% All Respondents 51% 53% 55% 20% 10% 0% Sales Strategy: New Products/Line Extensions 47
49 Continuous improvement at thriving and growing companies Thriving businesses are more likely to have a mature CI culture 48
50 R&D initiatives of thriving and growing companies Annual investment (as a percentage of sales) into R&D/development by business condition (average) 49
51 Experience the power of being understood. SM In addition to the key findings outlined in this presentation, results from the 2012 McGladrey Manufacturing and Distribution Monitor can be found at 50
52 Open Discussion- Q&A Questions? 51
53 Contact me Paul Marvel McGladrey LLP Assurance Practice Leader 52
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