Adaptation transitions on the Lagos urban coast

Transcription

1 Adaptation transitions on the Lagos urban coast Adaptation Futures 2016, 4 th International Climate Change Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, The Netherlands Julius Ibukun Agboola 1, Mark Pelling 2, Joern Birkmann 3, Torsten Welle Mathias Garschagen 34 1 University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos. Nigeria 2 Kings College, London, United Kingdom 3 University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany 4 United Nations University, Bonn, Germany Preambles Transformation opens new opportunities for living with risk where: 1) Existing systems generate vulnerability and hazard, or 2) Preventing systems failure is impossible. Interactions between concentrated human activity and environmental dynamics are at their most intensive in highly urbanized coast like LAGOS Different changes that has taken place over decades Place/Infrastructures People Perception/Behaviour Governance/Adaptation 1

2 Lagos mega-city profile Latitudes 6 23 N and 6 41 N and longitudes 2 42 E and 3 42 E Flat lying coastal plain of south western Nigeria Hub of business and economic development in Nigeria, 65 per cent of the country s industrial establishments, more than 65 per cent of all commercial activities and around 60 per cent of Nigeria s non-oil economy A classic example of a modern city, having transformed from a small farming and fishing village in the fifteenth century to a burgeoning megacity in Flood History Lagos metropolis recorded the first flood in early 1970s and till date, floods (both river and coastal floods) have become perennial event in the state. October about 700 inhabitants of settlements along the River Ogun in Lagos state were evacuated to refugee/relief camp by the Lagos State Emergence Management Agency after a devastating flood July 2011 flood in Lagos June 2012 flood in Lagos Statistics confirms that between 2011 and 2012, more than 150 billion naira (about $1 billion) was lost in Lagos 2

3 Elevation of Lagos above Sea Level Source: Triple E System Inc Research Methodology/Data Review and analysis of existing data/information Stakeholders consultative scenario Workshops Existing Data Workshops Household Survey Expert Interviews Conducted household survey in 4 Local Government Areas Interviewed Experts from relevant background 3

4 Indicators for computation of Vulnerability Indices Lagos local scale risk index Stakeholders Consultative Scenario Analysis Objectives Risk Modelling/Decision Making Scenario 1. To assess the historical trajectory of different vulnerability indicators and dynamic components of transformation and resilience on the Lagos urban coast 2. To assess and develop an outline of Lagos Mega city on a Local Government Area basis based on adaptive capacity, susceptibility and coping capacity 3. To provide a platform that would influence policy and decision making Laissez-faire Adaptive Lagos Structured Mal/Non-Adaptive Lagos 4

5 HOUSEHOLD (HH) SURVEY Aim To determine vulnerability and risk patterns of local households as well as resilience and transformation processes towards extreme events. Selection Criteria Sample only from high risk communities Exposure to hazard and low income Closeness to city centre (high density low income) City fringe (informal settlement, lower density low) Ajeromi-Ifelodun Shomolu Lagos Mainland Badagry Results City Scale Local Index Indicators 5

6 Results City Scale Local Vulnerability Index Indicators Stakeholders Consultative Scenario Analysis The identified trends were analysed in an adaptive and structured (SA) scenario or in a laissez-faire and non-adaptive scenario (LNA) Migration: Non-controlled (LNA) Balanced (SA) Planning is weaker: Increase in unplanned developments (LNA) Industrialization: Governance: More integrated strategic planning (SA) High degradation, uncontrolled industrialization (LNA) Environmentally sustainable industrialization (SA) Nonresponsive leadership, conflicting governance (LNA) Responsible, proactive leadership, cooperative governance (SA) 6

7 Stakeholders Consultative Scenario Analysis The identified trends were analysed in an adaptive and structured (SA) scenario or in a laissez-faire and non-adaptive scenario (LNA) Land reclamation: Unguided (LNA) Systematic and controlled (SA) Inequality/Poverty: Extreme income inequality (LNA) Reduced/decline in income inequality (SA) Investment: Exploitative investment (LNA) Development-oriented investment (SA) Erosion: Increased flood and erosion disasters (LNA) Controlled, managed, reduced risk of flood and erosion (SA) Data/Access to information: Non-availability, disjointed and inaccessible (LNA) Availability and access to data and information (SA) Outcomes: Consultative Scenario Tools needed to move Lagos State from a laissez-faire mal/non adaptive scenario to a structured and adaptive scenario. The measures/tools suggested by participants are listed below as follows: - The use Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) alongside climate change scenarios and demographic changes - Revisit the vision 2020 plan for Lagos State - Capacity building on information sharing in agencies - Planning, enforcement and policy formulation needs to involve all stakeholders including the masses bottom top approach - Improve rural areas to reduce migration - Leadership, qualitative education, human rights awareness and participatory governance - Environmental education curriculum should be incorporated in the education system - Creation of satellite towns 7

8 Outcomes: Consultative Scenario Tools needed to move Lagos State from a laissez-faire mal/non adaptive scenario to a structured and adaptive scenario. The measures/tools suggested by participants are listed below as follows: - Integrated transportation system - Social welfare regulations on migrants - Geographic and demographic information systems - Participatory land use planning - Institutional streamlining - Provision of mass transit transportation - Strategic EIA for industrialization - Create an agency that will be in charge of rural area development - Monitoring and evaluation of EIAs as well as the mitigating factors - Comprehensive vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA). Results Household (HH) Survey The HH Survey questionnaire assessed four major areas personal information, status of natural hazards, risk management, and personal rating, views and qualitative responses. Classified into seven sections : 1.0 Personal information 2.0 Personal ratings of Household 3.0 Natural Hazards 4.0 Risk management techniques 5.0 Personal ratings 6.0 Personal views, and 7.0 Closing questions. 8

9 Susceptibility Susceptibility of households Flood Heat Stress Lack of coping capacity Lack of capacity of households Flood Heat Stress 9

10 Lack of adaptive capacity Lack of adaptive capacity of households Flood Heat Stress Vulnerability Analysis Vulnerability of households Flood Heat Stress 10

11 Experts Interview Analysis Functions Distribution Experts Interview Analysis Current Orientation of Risk Management The city risk management regime Misplaced priorities Current priorities on environmental matters are on tree planting and city beautification rather than coastal flooding, which occur sporadically Dominant Risk Management Regime Resistance Resilience Transformation Collapse 11

12 Experts Interview Analysis Current Orientation of Risk Management The city risk management regime Evolved priorities: the riskmanagement regime on environmental issues in Lagos has evolved from construction and cleaning of drainages to greening open spaces and planting trees to prevent flooding and combat climate change. A concern however is the sustainability of current riskmanagement programs Speed of Change Rapid Medium Slow Experts Analysis How stable are government policy priorities on risks identified? o Stable priorities and pragmatic focus: Crime management, security, transportation, ocean surge (over the last 16years) o o o Shifting priorities and reactionary focus: Climate change, flooding, waste management (in the last 8years). After an occurrence of a flood event policy response on maintenance of drainage channels, de-silting of canals, physical planning are in high gear but implementation and monitoring reduces over time. Emerging priorities : ( in the last 6years) Land subsidence and terrorism (relatively new hazard now occurring in different parts of the city causing building collapse). The Lagos state building control Agency has been established to address this concern. Unclear priorities: ( in the last 1 year) the new government has not been clear on its policy priorities and direction of governance. There are indications that the government s priorities might be job creation and infrastructural development. 12

13 Barriers to regime transition o Political barriers o Social barriers o Financial barriers Conclusion Risk Management Changes that have occurred in the last 20 years o o o Policy direction and enforcement Building Resistance in coastal and urban systems Knowledge and Capacity building How to achieve them Investment in human capital Economic empowerment program Welfare programs Food security Combat corruption Investment in infrastructure International intervention and support 13

14 Acknowledgement Belmont Forum Prof. Joern Birkmann (Co-Lead and Principal Investigator), University of Stuttgart for funding support of the TRUC- Lagos City Study through the German DFG Future Earth Coast (LOICZ) 14