African Economic Outlook 2017: Industrialisation and Entrepreneurship

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1 African Economic Outlook 2017: Industrialisation and Entrepreneurship Mario Pezzini OECD Development Centre Director and Special Advisor to the OECD Secretary General on Development Milano, 22 June 2017

2 Outline of presentation 1. Africa s Macroeconomic Outlook o Africa s Growth resilience tested o Regional comparisons Role of structural diversification o Domestic demand main driver of growth o Persisting challenges Financing and domestic resource mobilisation 2. Industrialisation and Entrepreneurship o Structural transformation remains a challenge o New industrialisation strategies to tap all high-growth sectors and businesses o Targeted entrepreneurship policies complement industrialisation strategies o Improving skills (including managerial ones), business clusters and access to finance will unlock Africa s entrepreneurial potential

3 PART I AFRICA S MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK 3

4 GDP Growth (%) Africa s Growth Performance, , ,9 3,7 3,4 3, , (e) 2017(p) 2018(p) Africa Africa (excluding Nigeria)

5 More diversified regions will be more resilient in 2017 West Africa GDP growth 3.4% North Africa GDP growth 3.5% Central Africa East Africa Africa 3.4% GDP growth 2.2% Southern Africa GDP growth 5.7% GDP growth 1.9% 5

6 Percentage point Private consumption is driving growth Drivers of growth in Africa, Private consumption Government consumption External balance Gross fixed investment Stockbuilding

7 Remittances and FDI make 60% of financial flows, but aid decreases Current USD billion % GDP (e) 2017 (p) Remittances Portfolio investments % GDP External inflows to Africa, Foreign direct investments Official development assistance Sources: Adapted from African Economic Outlook data, IMF (2016a), OECD (2016) and World Bank (2016b).

8 Domestic revenue mobilisation still falls short of needs USD, billion The tax revenue mix in Africa, Direct taxes Indirect taxes Trade taxes Resource revenues Sources: Africa Economic Outlook data.

9 PART II INDUSTRIALISATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP 9

10 Message 1 STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION REMAINS A CHALLENGE 10

11 Sectoral Productivity as % of Average Productivity Africa s structural transformation challenge: 2500 huge sectoral productivity gaps Mining (min) Utilities (pu) Finance (fire) Transport (tsc) Manufacturing (man) Construction (con) Other services (cspsgs) Trade (wrt) Agriculture (agr) Labor Productivity Gaps in Africa, 2005 Share of Total Employment (%)

12 Message 2 NEW INDUSTRIALISATION STRATEGIES NEED TO TAP ALL HIGH-GROWTH SECTORS AND BUSINESSES 12

13 % of GDP Africa s industrialisation will not only depend on manufacturing Development of industry and manufacturing in Africa (% of GDP) Manufacturing Total Industry 13

14 New strategies harness the new industrial revolution 14

15 Share of total employment (%) New strategies to target all businesses African young SMEs create many jobs 25 Sizes and ages of formal enterprises in 38 African countries Less than 20 employees employees 100 or more employees years or younger 6-10 years 11 years or older Source: Adapted from Ayyagari, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (2014) 15

16 The share of new entrepreneurs is highest in Africa (22%), but mostly in non-tradable services Sectoral composition of early-stage entrepreneurship in Africa, Retail trade, hotels & restaurants Agriculture,forestry,fishing Other services Manufacturing Government, health, education, social Wholesale trade Mining,construction 0% 20% 40% 60% % of early-stage entrepreneurship Source: Calculations based on GEM (2017) 16

17 Message 3 TARGETED ENTREPRENEURSHIP POLICIES COMPLEMENT INDUSTRIALISATION STRATEGIES 17

18 % of working-age population Policies should target opportunity-driven entrepreneurs Prevalence of opportunity-driven & necessity-driven entrepreneurs in Africa Opportunity-driven entrepreneurs Necessity-driven entrepreneurs Source: Calculations based on GEM (2017) 18

19 Entrepreneurship policies complement industrialisation strategies Industrialisation strategies Opportunity-driven entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship policies 19

20 Message 4 IMPROVING SKILLS, BUSINESS CLUSTERS AND ACCESS TO FINANCE CAN UNLOCK AFRICA S ENTREPRENEURIAL POTENTIAL 20

21 % of firms Constraints on firms can be lifted by improving skills, business clusters and access to finance 20 Common operating constraints for African firms Access to finance Electricity Practices of the informal sector Africa All developing countries Skills Source: Adapted from Enterprise Surveys ( the World Bank. 21

22 Improving skills is key for high-potential entrepreneurship Share of students in secondary education enrolled in vocational programmes East Asia and Pacific OECD Africa Latin America and South Asia 21,2% 20,4% 10,5% 9,7% 1,7% Egypt Rwanda Algeria South Africa Morocco Senegal Ethiopia Ghana 8,3% 7,3% 6,1% 4,5% 4,2% 1,8% 15% 21% 22

23 Policies can strengthen industrial clusters to help small firms grow Public goods Comparative advantage Business linkages Cluster-driven industrialisation 23

24 Improving access to finance calls for targeted policies Proportion of working capital financed by banks (%) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Africa (48 countries) Latin America (24 countries) Small enterprises Medium-sized enterprises Large enterprises 24

25 Thank you! Merci! Grazie! 25

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