Economic Survey Volume 2 An Overview

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1 Economic Survey Volume 2 An Overview Arvind Subramanian Chief Economic Adviser August 11, 2017 Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 1

2 Why Volume 2, Why Now? Before this year, two volumes were released on the day before the Budget Volume 1 was analytical and policy and ideas-oriented Volume 2 featured a sectoral review and included historic data for first three quarters Pattern changed due to advancement of budget calendar Split the release of two volumes Only Volume 1 was released before the budget Volume 2 to be released in July so that historic data covers the whole year Statistical Appendix (Historical Data) provided as Microsoft Excel files for ease of use Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 2

3 Survey Volume 2 1. State of the Economy: An Analytical Overview 2. Fiscal Developments 3. Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation 4. Price and Inflation 5. Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Energy 6. External Sector 7. Agriculture and Food Management 8. Industry and Infrastructure 9. Services Sector 10. Social Infrastructure, Employment and Human Development Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 3

4 Outline Encouraging developments for the medium term Deflationary impulses in the near term Outlook and policies Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 4

5 Encouraging (and Mixed) Developments 1.Rekindled optimism on structural reforms 2.Growing confidence that macro-economic stability inflation and external balance has become entrenched: Regime shift 3.Demonetization s long-term positive consequences 4.Demonetization s short-term costs 5.Extraordinary financial market confidence/exuberance Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 5

6 Encouraging Developments. Structural Reforms Launch of the GST: 13.5 lakh new registrants In-principle decision to privatize Air India Further rationalization of energy subsidies Actions to address the Twin Balance Sheet challenge Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 6

7 Jan-77 Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Encouraging Developments. Structural Downward Shift in Inflation: Changes in oil market and domestic agriculture : (37.5$/bbl) 1987: Drought : (26.7 $/bbl) 18 Iran Iraq War First Gulf War and 1979: Drought 1982: Drought Sharp rupee 16 depreciation : Low oil price (15$/bbl) but rising food 2009: Drought, and rising commodity % (Avg) 9.0 % (Avg) CPI IW Inflation 4.0 % (Avg) 5.1 % (Avg) 2 0 Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 7

8 Apr 4, 2014 Jun 4, 2014 Aug 4, 2014 Oct 4, 2014 Dec 4, 2014 Feb 4, 2015 Apr 4, 2015 Jun 4, 2015 Aug 4, 2015 Oct 4, 2015 Dec 4, 2015 Feb 4, 2016 Apr 4, 2016 Jun 4, 2016 Aug 4, 2016 Oct 4, 2016 Dec 4, 2016 Feb 4, 2017 Apr 4, 2017 Jun 4, 2017 In Rs Trillion Encouraging Developments. Demonetization: Decline in equilibrium cash holdings Cash Holdings Currency in Circulation to GDP and M Rs ~3.4 Trillion ~ Rs 3.5 trillion CIC/GDP CIC/M1 (RHS) Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 8

9 Rs billion Rs Billion Encouraging Developments. Demonetization -Boost to digitalization for all users Sep-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 May-17 May-17 Rs billion Rs Billion Sep-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 May-17 Rs Billion Jan-15 Sep-16 Apr-15 Oct-16 Jul-15 Nov-16 Oct-15 Dec-16 Jan-16 Jan-17 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-16 Mar-17 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jan-17 May-17 Apr AEPS Inter Bank Transaction 80 RuPay Card usage at POS 12 RuPay Card usage at (ecom) UPI - Unified Payments Interface 1, Credit card and debit card usage at PoS NEFT transactions (Rs trillion) Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 9

10 Encouraging Developments. Substantial increase in new tax payers FY: FY: Growth in New Tax Payers (%) Possible additional taxpayers due to Demonetization (in Lakh) (calculated as excess over previous year s growth) Growth in Returned Income (%) Possible addition of Returned Income (in Crore) 10,587 Average Taxable Income (in Lakh) Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 10

11 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Lakh Demonetization: Short term impacts on real economy and informal sector High Frequency Macro Economic Indicators Real Credit Growth - Industry IIP Manufacturing Growth Number of Two Wheelers Sold in the Domestic Market Actual Data Sept 2016 trend 11 Oct 2016 trend MGNREGA: All India Mandays generated MGNREGA: Less Developed states Mandays generated Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 11

12 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Encouraging Developments. Financial Markets exuberance decoupled from real economy related to international excess liquidity Average P/E during boom period was 18.6 Sensex Avg P/E (RHS) Long-term average P/E since has been ~ Source: BSE, RBI Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 12

13 Deflationary Impulses: Outlook for Inflation and Growth Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 13

14 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Inflation : Substantial overachievement Consumer Price Inflation End March 2017 target Medium term target Headline CPI CPI Refined core Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 14

15 Inflation Outlook: Determining factors Outlook for capital flows and the exchange rate Influenced by the outlook and policy in advanced economies, especially the US Recent nominal exchange rate appreciation Good monsoon but bottlenecks in fruits and vegetables Introduction of the GST 7th Pay Commission awards Farm loan waivers Output gap End-period inflation within target; average inflation below target Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 15

16 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Growth: Across the board deceleration in real activity since Q2 FY Real Credit Growth - Industry -6.0 IIP Manufacturing Growth GVA growth GFCF growth (real) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 16

17 Growth outlook from a Twin Balance Sheet perspective: Need for deleveraging Spain Housing Crash Japan Bubble Thailand Asian Financial China Credit Surge US Subprime Crisis India Growth Boom Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 17

18 Farm Loan Waivers: Deflationary not Inflationary Likely magnitude: 1.25 lakh crore- for states which have already announced; 2.7 lakh crore if all states implement Deflationary because of FRLs of States: for example, UP has slashed capital expenditure to accommodate waiver Potential impact on demand: 58 thousand crore - states which have already announced; 1.14 lakh crore if all states implement State fiscal impact: reduction by 0.35 percent of GDP - states which have already announced; reduction by 0.7 percent of GDP if all states implements Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 18

19 TBS: Rising Stress in Power and Telecom Sectors 3,900 3,600 3,300 Power sector debt with IC<1 (Rs bn) Share of debt with IC<1 (%) (RHS) 75% 70% 65% 1,800 1,500 Telecom sector debt with IC<1 (Rs bn) Share of debt with IC<1 (%) (RHS) 60% 55% 50% 3,000 60% 1,200 45% 2,700 2,400 55% 50% % 35% 30% 2,100 1,800 45% 40% % 20% 1,500 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 35% - 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 15% Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 19

20 Agriculture Puzzle: Reduced farm revenues in non-cereal crops despite good monsoon Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 20

21 Revenue, Quantity and Price Movement of Arhar Phase 1: As quantity goes up total revenue goes up Price (LHS) Revenue (RHS) Quanity (RHS) Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 21

22 Revenue, Quantity and Price Movement of Arhar Phase 2 : As quantity declines total revenue goes down Price (LHS) Revenue (RHS) Quanity (RHS) Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 22

23 Revenue, Quantity and Price Movement of Arhar Phase 3 : The relationship doesn t hold this year: Output up, revenue down Price (LHS) Revenue (RHS) Quanity (RHS) Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 23

24 Revenue, Quantity and Price Movement of Arhar The relationship doesn t hold because of sharp decline in prices Price (LHS) Revenue (RHS) Quanity (RHS) Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 24

25 Selected Agricultural Commodities: Real Revenues, Quantities and Prices Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 25

26 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Percent High real rates and deteriorating competitiveness Real Interest Rate (per cent) REER Asia-H REER RBI REER Asia-M NEER Cross-country Real Bond Yield (per cent) as of May India Thailand Indonesia China Singapore Taiwan Korea Malaysia Rupee/$ Rupee per Chinese Yuan (RHS) Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 26

27 Growth Outlook: Summary Balance of risks to growth has shifted to the downside Balance of probability has correspondingly shifted away from the upper end of the growth forecast in February Economic Survey Volume II: 27 Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 27

28 Monetary policy: Technical assessment Structural decline in inflation and inflation outlook create scope for lower rates Temporary factors reduce scope for lower rates Neutral nominal rates based on RBI studies of neutral real rates between 5.25 and 5.75 percent But economic cycle must be factored in (Taylor rule): if growth below potential and there is economic slack, actual rate must be below neutral Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 28

29 Monetary Policy: Technical assessment Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug Repo Rate and Nominal Neutral Rate Nominal Neutral Rate Repo Rate 25 bps 75 bps Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 29

30 Monetary Policy. Technical assessment: Policy cuts are reflected in incremental lending, especially private banks Repo Rate and Bank Groupwise Weighted Average Lending Rates on Fresh Rupee Loans Repo Public Sector Banks Private Sector Banks 203 bps 175 bps 171 bps Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 30

31 Fiscal Outlook Downside risks include GST receipts, growth outlook, spectrum receipts, 7 th Pay Commission Upside potential include compliance benefits from the GST and Demonetization Magnitude and pace of final consolidation relative to the commitments made may need to be assessed going forward Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 31

32 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Agriculture: Over longer horizons, there is no necessary opposition between farmer and consumer interests Lakh hectare Growth Crop Rice Pulses Moong Tur Coarse Cereals Oilseeds Sugarcane Jute & Mesta Cotton Total Production Lagged WPI (RHS) Arhar Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 32

33 Agricultural policies Remunerative MSPs backed by effective procurement Eliminate restrictions that impede realization of better prices: Stock limits, export restrictions, impediments to the implementation of e-nam Time also ripe to consider whether direct support (as opposed to indirect support) can be more effective Chief Economic Adviser Economic Survey Volume 2: Overview 33

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