The Future of the Valley: Do we actually know what to expect?
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1 From the SelectedWorks of Jacobus J. "Jaap" Vos July, 2014 The Future of the Valley: Do we actually know what to expect? Jaap Vos Available at:
2 The Future of the Valley Do we actually know what to expect? Jaap Vos Department of Community and Regional Planning July 16, Boise State University 1
3 We know a tremendous amount about the ecosystem, the water, snowpack, the hydrology and how to model the system. We know hardly anything about the people and the human system Boise State University 2
4 The problem with the human system is the increasing pace of change: How many people will live here? Who will these people be? What preferences/needs will they have? Homes, transportation, amenities, employment People have become increasingly mobile. People have more access to information and they have it quick Boise State University 3
5 Everybody thinks they know planning. Nobody but experts claim to know anything about water, geology, hydrology or modeling Boise State University 4
6 Boise is ranked among the best cities in the US. Livability data 2012 Boise State University 5
7 Idaho has a low educational attainment compared to other states Boise State University 6
8 Idaho educational attainment: 2012 Boise State University 7
9 Idaho educational attainment: 8 % 12 % 24 % 24 % 30 % 2012 Boise State University 8
10 Boise has both a low educational attainment and low income levels. New York Times Map 2012 Boise State University 9
11 Manhattan Institute identified Idaho as main growth corridor Boise State University 10
12 2012 Boise State University 11
13 Some Idaho facts: Change Population 1,293,953 1,567,582 21% 273,629 Median age White (%) % Black (%) % 4,230 Hispanic (%) % 96,638 Mexican (%) Household size Family size Housing units 527, ,796 27% Seasonal housing 27,478 41,660 52% 2012 Boise State University 12
14 Meridian is one of the fastest growing cities in the US: 2012 Boise State University 13
15 Obviously Meridian is on its way to become the biggest city in Idaho Boise State University 14
16 Certainly not in my life: % Absolute Boise 206, , , ,237 4% 7892 Nampa 81,836 82,632 83,921 86,518 6% 4682 Meridian 75,602 77,867 80,409 83,596 11% Boise State University 15
17 The Treasure Valley will have 1 million people by Boise State University 16
18 The projections for the region seem significantly off: % Absolute 2015 % Boise 206, , , ,237 4% , % Nampa 81,836 82,632 83,921 86,518 6% , % Meridian 75,602 77,867 80,409 83,596 11% , % 2012 Boise State University 17
19 The projections for the region seem significantly off: % Absolute 2015 % Boise 206, , , ,237 4% , % Nampa 81,836 82,632 83,921 86,518 6% , % Meridian 75,602 77,867 80,409 83,596 11% , % Total 384,351 53, ,434 That means we would have to have about 723 people move to the Treasure Valley every day Boise State University 18
20 If it were only that easy. SO WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON WITH THE LOCAL POPULATION? 2012 Boise State University 19
21 2012 Boise State University 20
22 2012 Boise State University 21
23 Educational Attainment 2000 Male Female No Diploma High School Some College Bachelors Graduate 2012 Boise State University 22
24 Educational Attainment 2012 Male Female No Diploma High School Some College Bachelors Graduate 2012 Boise State University 23
25 Changes between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2013: Idaho's population grew by 44,495 people (growth of 2.8%) Ada County's population grew by 24,099 people (growth of 6.1%) Boise MSA grew by 5.5 percent to a population of 650,288. That growth rate means that it was one of the fastest growing MSAs in the country. 28 of the 44 Counties in Idaho lost population 36 of the 44 Counties in Idaho had a negative net migration Ada, Canyon, Kootenai, Latah, Lewis, Nez Perce, Shoshone and Twin Falls County had more people moving into the county than moving out 2012 Boise State University 24
26 Some local facts: Ada County Canyon County Population 300, , , ,923 Median age White Black Hispanic Mexican Household size Family size Housing units 113, ,471 47,965 69,409 Seasonal housing 483 1, Boise State University 25
27 General Observations: Idaho is getting somewhat more diverse. In general, rural areas are losing population, urban centers are growing. This includes economic productive centers and resort centers. Idaho seems to be getting slightly older Boise State University 26
28 The future: Treasure Valley population might grow to about 1 million in 2040 Growth will probably continue to expand to west but consumer preferences are changing and favor urban, smaller, bike-able, walkable and wild amenities The question is who is moving and why? 2012 Boise State University 27
29 Growth only tells part of the story Colorado, between 2009 and 2013, 478 people moved from Colorado to Idaho < > Boise State University 28
30 But 478 hides the dynamics: flow between Idaho and Colorado:11, < >60 IN OUT NET Boise State University 29
31 Arizona Colorado Montana Nevada Oregon Utah Washington States with a big exchange: 2012 Boise State University 30
32 California is a different story: IN OUT NET < > Boise State University 31
33 Mobility and migration ( ): 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Mobility Net migration 20,000 - (20,000) < > Boise State University 32
34 Change and age: Idaho loses young people (<30) to Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming. With the exception of North Dakota, there is a positive influx of people 30 and older from every state. We know nothing about people that are leaving or entering Boise State University 33
35 Imagine in a period of 4 years: In an area with 600,000 original residents, you move out about 100,000. Now you add about 130,000 new residents from other states. In the meanwhile, some of your original residents pass away. Fortunately, some new original residents are born Boise State University 34
36 The big question is what do we really know about the future demand for water if there is so much change in the population? And the change is happening rapidly And we know close to nothing about the real changes 2012 Boise State University 35
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