Equipping California Investors for Tomorrow s Challenges
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1 Equipping California Investors for Tomorrow s Challenges
2 Headline Roundup Real estate news Law changes Foreclosures Builder news Realtor news Mortgage news
3 Radio Show Leslie Appleton-Young, CAR Frank Nothalf, Freddie Mac Christopher Thornberg Alan Nevin Gary Watts Ward Hanigan Mike Cantu Tony Alvarez Mark Dotour Center for Responsible Lending
4 28% 37% 32% 30% 22% 23% 40% 39% 40% 33% 26% 23% 17% 24% 27% 23% 31% 29% 18% 17% 24% 36% 45% 30% 32% 16%16% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Annual Housing Affordability
5 First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index California Vs. U.S Source: CAR, 2008 Real Estate Market Outlook, April 2008.
6 Unsold Inventory Index California, February 2008: 14.3 Months Source: CAR, 2008 Real Estate Market Outlook, April 2008.
7 Unsold Inventory Index vs. Price Changes Source: CAR, 2008 Real Estate Market Outlook, April 2008.
8 U.S. Homeownership Numbers in Percentages 70% 69% 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 67.9% Jan-81 Sep-83 Jun-86 Feb-89 Nov-91 Aug-94 Apr-97 Jan-00 Sep-02 Jun-05 Mar-08 Homeownership Rates Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
9 Homeowner Vacancy Rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.9% Jan-95 Apr-96 Aug-97 Nov-98 Mar-00 Jul-01 Oct-02 Feb-04 May-05 Sep-06 Jan-08 Homeowner Vacancy Rate Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
10 Construction at a Glance Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate in Millions of Dollars 800, , , ,000 $445, , ,000 $382, , ,000 0 Jan-93 Jul-94 Jan-96 Jul-97 Jan-99 Aug-00 Feb-02 Aug-03 Feb-05 Aug-06 Mar-08 Residencial Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Construction Spending, March 2008 Non-Residencial
11 Year-to-Year % Change in Jobs California Source: CA EDD, LAEDC Forecast.
12 Non-Farm Employment (thousands) Los Angeles Orange County Riverside/ SB Non-Farm Employment Feb 2008 Non-Farm Employment Feb 2007 Change Percent Change 4, , % 1, , % 1, , % San Diego 1, , % Ventura % Total 8, , % -0.7% Source: CA EDD, LAEDC Forecast.
13 Prime, Subprime, & Other Loans As a Percentage of All Loans Outstanding in California
14 Prime vs. Subprime Past Due California Q4-2007
15 Mortgage Foreclosure & Delinquency Rates California
16 ~$800 Billion of Subprime Mortgages to Reset Source: LoanPerformance, Deutsche Bank.
17 Notices of Default Recorded Southern California 350, , , , , ,000 50, Source: Real Estate Research Council Cal Poly Pomona, First Quarter Data 2008.
18 Trustees Deeds Recorded Southern California 160, , , , ,000 80,000 70,513 60,000 40,000 28,500 20, ,905 7,182 3, Source: Real Estate Research Council Cal Poly Pomona, First Quarter Data 2008.
19 Sales vs. Trustee Sales S. CA 300, , , , ,000 50, ,590 7, % 210,430 15, % 186, % 31, , % 51, , % 58, , % 56, , % 69, % 200, , % 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% % Source: Real Estate Research Council Cal Poly Pomona, First Quarter Data 2008.
20 Sales vs. Trustee Sales Riverside 50,000 45,000 40,000 35, % 37,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 22,219 9, % 24,229 11, % 21,500 5, Source: Real Estate Research Council Cal Poly Pomona, First Quarter Data 2008.
21 Sales vs. Trustee Sales Orange County 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 32,117 36, % 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, % 7,626 6, % 17,500 15,900 5, Source: Real Estate Research Council Cal Poly Pomona, First Quarter Data 2008.
22 Sales vs. Trustee Sales Los Angeles 120, % 100,000 87,079 95,951 80,000 60,000 40,000 33, % 33, % 45,000 50,300 20, Source: Real Estate Research Council Cal Poly Pomona, First Quarter Data 2008.
23 Sales vs. Trustee Sales San Bernardino 30,000 25,000 23,550 26, % 27,500 20,000 15,000 10,778 12,563 14,500 10, % 48.24% 5, Source: Real Estate Research Council Cal Poly Pomona, First Quarter Data 2008.
24 Sales vs. Trustee Sales San Diego 40,000 35,000 30,000 30,413 35, % 25,000 20,000 21,300 20,100 15,000 10,000 5, % 5,994 5, % Source: Real Estate Research Council Cal Poly Pomona, First Quarter Data 2008.
25 California Housing Market Forecast Source: C.A.R., 2008 Real Estate Market Forecast.
26 C.A.R. Projections for California Sales for ,500 Trustee Sales 250,000 NODs 360,000 % of all California Sales vs. Trustee 74.74% Sales
27 Median Price Existing Detached Homes California, February 2008: $409,240, Down 26.2% Y-T-Y Source: CAR, 2008 Real Estate Market Outlook, April 2008.
28 Before Credit Crunch-Peak vs Current Price Region Peak Month Peak Price Aug-07 Median % Chg From Peak Northern California Aug-05 $440,420 $370, % Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 $332, % Central Valley Aug-05 $363,680 $309, % High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 $287, % Riverside San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 $377, % Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 $600, % Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 $669, % Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 $710, % San Diego May-06 $622,380 $595, % Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 $377, % San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 $598, % San Francisco May-07 $853,910 $832, % Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 $860, % Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 $798, % Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 $605, % Source: CAR, 2008 Real Estate Market Outlook, April 2008.
29 Peak vs Current Price February 2008 Region Peak Month Peak Price Feb-08 Median % Chg From Peak Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 $258, % High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 $220, % CALIFORNIA Apr-07 $597,640 $409, % Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 $449, % Riverside San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 $289, % San Diego May-06 $622,380 $450, % Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 $520, % San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 $471, % Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 $467, % Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 $619, % Northern California Aug-05 $440,420 $347, % Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 $596, % San Francisco May-07 $853,910 $706, % Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 $334, % Central Valley*(Aug 2007) Aug-05 $363,680 $309, % Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 $780, % Source: CAR, 2008 Real Estate Market Outlook, April 2008.
30 Sales by Price Range Southern California Existing Homes
31 Proportion of First-Time Homebuyers - California Source: C.A.R., 2008 Real Estate Market Forecast.
32 "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked. Warren Buffet
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