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1 PowerS picks $15 Volume 5 Issue 18 November 8-13, BP Sports, LLC The Mediocrity Continues: Last 58 Best Bets Week 11 CFB Best Bets Pg 3, Week 10 NFL Best Bets Pg 8 Week 10 News and Notes! For those of you that are new, in this section we ll recap what happened last week specifically, the misleading finals, the key injuries, the bad beats and the line moves. We ll include most of these recaps here, therefore you don t have to waste time reading about them in my game-by-game write-ups for the upcoming week. Without further adieu, here s a run down of what happened last week in the world of CFB. Week 10 Trends Favorites-Dogs Straight Up ATS Home-Away Straight Up ATS Totals (O/U) Over-Under Largest Favorites to Cover: E Michigan (-24.5) vs Ball St, San Diego St (-24) at San Jose St, 52-7 Houston (-23) vs East Carolina, Boise St (-20.5) vs Nevada, Middle Tennessee (-20) vs UTEP, 30-3 The Ohio St/Iowa game featured one of the most shocking scores in recent memory as huge underdog Iowa won covering the spread by more than 50 points! The Hawkeyes were on the money line. Biggest Money line Upsets: Iowa won vs Ohio St as 21-point underdogs. Michigan St +330 won vs Penn St as 10-point underdogs. UL-Monroe +260 won vs Appalachian St as 8.5-point underdogs. Virginia +260 won vs Georgia Tech as 8.5-point underdogs. ATS Notables Best ATS teams so far: Eastern Michigan (7-1-1). Georgia Tech is ATS. Marshall, Ohio, Notre Dame, Rutgers, UAB, Utah and Wake Forest are all 7-2 ATS. Worst ATS teams so far: Florida St (0-7-1). Western Kentucky and Kansas are both ATS. Bowling Green and BYU are 2-8 ATS. Best OVER teams so far: Maryland and Ole Miss games are 8-1 to the OVER this year. Arizona, Ohio, Ohio St, ULM and UCLA games are 7-2 to the OVER. Best UNDER teams so far: Akron games are 9-1 to the UNDER this season. Meanwhile Middle Tennessee, New Mexico and Troy games are 8-1 to the UNDER. Miami (FL) games are 7-1 to the UNDER. Lane Kiffin Mentions Bad Beat on Twitter On Friday, FAU (-6.5) had a lead with just over 2 minutes left and the Owls had the ball in their own territory. However, FAU couldn t pick up a first down and were forced to punt. On 4th-down FAU head coach Lane Kiffin instructed his punter to run through the back of the end zone to take a safety with less than :10 left as Marshall got the back door. This one also got some major publicity with Kiffin posting about not covering the point spread on Twitter. Please note that in the game, Marshall had first down and yard edges but were -4 TO s. Misleading Finals East Carolina (+23.5) did have a first down and yard edge vs Houston in a loss. The Pirates were -3 TO s and missed a FG. However, note that ECU had to run 98 plays to get those 504 yards (5.14 ypp) while Houston ran only 48 plays on offense to get their 472 yards (9.83 ypp). Miami, Oh (+9 ) and Ohio were tied at but the Redhawks were stopped on downs on each of their last 3 drives and despite a yard edge lost by 17. Rice (+9.5) had a yard edge vs UAB but were -3 TO s and lost Southern Miss (+6.5) had first down and yard edges but lost to Tennessee as they were -2 TO s. New Mexico (-3.5) had first down and yard edges but 4 TO s cost them in a loss to Utah St. Syracuse (+7) had a first down and yard edge vs Florida St but a couple of missed FG s cost them in their loss. Recapping Our Best Bets Last Week We had a very fortunate win on our 3H Arizona St (-4) last week. It was a solid bet as the Sun Devils closed as 5.5-point favorites in most shops and even as high as 6.5 in others. However, our pick looked dead in the water with Colorado leading entering the 4Q. Arizona St would out-score Colorado 24-3 in the fourth quarter capped off by a TD with :46 left that gave them a win and the cover for all their backers. We also had a 3H on Virginia Tech (-2.5) on these pages and this one was not only a bad pick but also a bad bet as the Hokies closed as 2.5-point underdogs. The Hokies trailed early in the second half but got outscored 14-0 to close the game in a loss that was sloppy with 7 TO s combined. Our 2H on South Carolina (+24 ) was a solid bet as the Gamecocks closed +23. It also ended up being a solid pick as they limited Georgia to only 24 points in a loss that easily covered. Our 2H on Vanderbilt (-9.5) was one of our better bets of the weekend as the Commodores closed 12.5-point favorites crossing right through a key 10 number. The pick wasn t easy though as Vanderbilt won with a 4Q Vandy FG making sure all Commodore backers got the cover. Finally, we had a 2H on Notre Dame (-13.5) on these pages. Number one, it was a great bet as the Fighting Irish closed as high as in some shops. However, it ended up being a very bad beat. Notre Dame s offense racked up 720 yards and the Irish were leading in the 4Q. However, Wake Forest got two late TD s including one in the final minute to get the back door. Major Injuries Arkansas QB Austin Allen (shoulder) is probable vs LSU. BYU QB Tanner Mangum (Achilles) is out for the season. Connecticut QB Bryant Shirreffs (concussion) has been downgraded to out vs UCF. Kansas St QB Jesse Ertz (knee) is doubtful vs West Virginia while backup QB Alex Delton (head) is questionable. Maryland 3rd string QB Max Bortenschlager (shoulder) is? vs Michigan. Navy QB Zach Abey (shoulder) is questionable vs SMU. Oklahoma St WR James Washington (ankle) is questionable vs Iowa St. UCLA QB Josh Rosen (concussion) has been upgraded to probable vs Arizona St. Western Kentucky QB Mike White (undisclosed) is questionable vs Marshall. More Handicapping Service Records BP Sports NFL VIP H-rated plays and top leans: BP Sports College VIP H-rated plays and top leans: Sunday Night Owl Best Bets (excluding Week 1): Vegas Wise Guys Report: Steam Chasing Sharp $ (CFB/NFL): Vegas Wise Guys Report: Pros vs Joes Games of Week: Pros Northcoast Sports Executive Club (3H s and higher): (-13.3 units) Phil Steele ESPN Insider Bets Bets: Nationwide Football Newsletter Contest (Regular Season Only) We are happy to provide you with the records, standings and plays used from the Power Sweep (3H, 4H & Underdog), Gold Sheet (Key Releases), Power Plays (4.5H), Sports Reporter (Best & Super Bets), Winning Points (Best Bets & Preferred), Playbook (3-5H s), Pointwise (Ratings 1-4) and Powers Picks (1-4H s) College NFL College/NFL Combined Newsletter W L T % Net Newsletter W L T % Net Newsletter W L T % Net Gold Sheet % -1 Power Sweep % 10 Power Sweep % 8 Playbook % -1 Gold Sheet % 1 Gold Sheet % 0 Power Sweep % -2 Sports Reporter % 0 Sports Reporter % -2 Sports Reporter % -2 Powers Picks % -1 Pointwise % -9 Pointwise % -6 Pointwise % -3 Powers Picks % -9 Powers Picks % -8 Winning Points % -8 Playbook % -8 Winning Points % -10 Playbook % -7 Winning Points % -18 Power Plays % -6 Power Plays % -3 Power Plays % -9 Combined % -36 Combined % -11 Combined % -47

2 CFB/NFL Schedules Week 11 Nov 8th-13th CFB Wednesday, Nov 8th Line BP All Times Eastern 105 KENT ST :00 p.m. CBS College 106 WESTERN MICHIGAN TOLEDO :00 p.m. ESPN2 108 OHIO EASTERN MICHIGAN :00 p.m. ESPNU 110 CENTRAL MICHIGAN NFL/CFB Thursday, Nov 9th Line BP All Times Eastern 111 SEATTLE :25 p.m. NBC 112 ARIZONA BALL ST :00 p.m. CBS College 114 NORTHERN ILLINOIS GEORGIA SOUTHERN :30 p.m. ESPNU 116 APPALACHIAN ST NORTH CAROLINA :30 p.m. ESPN 118 PITTSBURGH Friday, November 10th Line BP All Times Eastern 119 TEMPLE :00 p.m. ESPN2 120 CINCINNATI WASHINGTON :30 p.m. FOX Sports STANFORD BYU :30 p.m. ESPN2 124 UNLV -4-3 Saturday, November 11th Line BP All Times Eastern 125 MICHIGAN :30 p.m. Big Ten 126 MARYLAND FLORIDA :00 p.m. CBS 128 SOUTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA TECH :20 p.m. 130 GEORGIA TECH TULANE :00 p.m. CBS College 132 EAST CAROLINA NC STATE :00 p.m. ABC/ESPN2 134 BOSTON COLLEGE CONNECTICUT :00 p.m. 136 CENTRAL FLORIDA WAKE FOREST :00 p.m. 138 SYRACUSE RUTGERS :00 p.m. Big Ten 140 PENN ST DUKE :00 p.m. CBS College 142 ARMY MICHIGAN ST :00 p.m. FOX 144 OHIO ST INDIANA :00 p.m. Big Ten 146 ILLINOIS TROY :30 p.m. 148 COASTAL CAROLINA MIDDLE TENNESSEE :00 p.m. 150 CHARLOTTE WYOMING :15 p.m. ESPNU 152 AIR FORCE SAN JOSE ST :00 p.m. 154 NEVADA TEXAS TECH :00 p.m. 156 BAYLOR WEST VIRGINIA :30 p.m. ESPN2 158 KANSAS ST TCU :00 p.m. FOX 160 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA ST :00 p.m. ABC/ESPN2 162 IOWA ST VIRGINIA :30 p.m. ESPNU 164 LOUISVILLE NOTRE DAME :00 p.m. ABC 166 MIAMI, FL SMU :30 p.m. CBS College 168 NAVY WASHINGTON ST :30 p.m. Pac UTAH PURDUE :00 p.m. ESPN2 172 NORTHWESTERN UL-LAFAYETTE :00 p.m. SEC Network 174 MISSISSIPPI NEBRASKA :00 p.m. FOX Sports MINNESOTA ALABAMA :00 p.m. ESPN 178 MISSISSIPPI ST FLORIDA ATLANTIC :30 p.m. 180 LOUISIANA TECH SOUTHERN MISS :30 p.m. 182 RICE USC :00 p.m. FOX 184 COLORADO IOWA :30 p.m. ABC 186 WISCONSIN GEORGIA :30 p.m. CBS 188 AUBURN TENNESSEE :30 p.m. SEC Network 190 MISSOURI NEW MEXICO :00 p.m. ESPNU 192 TEXAS A&M ARIZONA ST :30 p.m. Pac UCLA KENTUCKY :00 p.m. SEC Network 196 VANDERBILT ARKANSAS ST :00 p.m. 198 SOUTH ALABAMA GEORGIA ST :00 p.m. 200 TEXAS ST UTEP :45 p.m. 202 NORTH TEXAS KANSAS :00 p.m. 204 TEXAS WKU :30 p.m. 206 MARSHALL OLD DOMINION :00 p.m. 208 FIU UAB :00 p.m. 210 UTSA FLORIDA ST :30 p.m. ESPN 212 CLEMSON ARKANSAS :00 p.m. ESPN 214 LSU OREGON ST :00 p.m. ESPN2 216 ARIZONA BOISE ST :30 p.m. CBS College 218 COLORADO ST FRESNO ST :00 p.m. 220 HAWAII MAINE NL 4:00 p.m. 222 MASSACHUSETTS NL NFL Wk 10 Sunday, Nov 12th Line BP All Times Eastern 251 MINNESOTA :00 p.m. FOX 252 WASHINGTON GREEN BAY :00 p.m. FOX 254 CHICAGO PITTSBURGH :00 p.m. FOX 256 INDIANAPOLIS L.A. CHARGERS :00 p.m. CBS 258 JACKSONVILLE N.Y. JETS :00 p.m. CBS 260 TAMPA BAY CINCINNATI :00 p.m. FOX 262 TENNESSEE NEW ORLEANS :00 p.m. FOX 264 BUFFALO CLEVELAND :00 p.m. CBS 266 DETROIT HOUSTON :05 p.m. FOX 268 L.A. RAMS DALLAS :25 p.m. FOX 270 ATLANTA N.Y. GIANTS :25 p.m. FOX 272 SAN FRANCISCO NEW ENGLAND :30 p.m. NBC 274 DENVER Monday, November 13th Line BP All Times Eastern 275 MIAMI :30 p.m. ESPN 276 CAROLINA

3 4H = BEST 3H = BETTER 2H = GOOD 1H = FAIR THE POWERS PACK 3H Duke (-3) over ARMY 3H AUBURN (+2.5) over Georgia 2H Indiana (-9) over ILLINOIS 2H COLORADO (+13.5) over Usc 2H Arizona St (+2.5) over UCLA Games in Rotation Order HOME TEAM IN CAPS Thursday, November 9th NORTHERN ILLINOIS 41 Ball St 10. NIU has won 8 straight over Ball St and covered 5 in a row. Ball St is in their largest conference underdog role since 2000 when they were +32 at Toledo and lost It is well deserved considering they are on a 0-5 SU/ATS run getting beat by at least 4 TD s in every game (-42 ppg). On the other side, NIU is in a bit of a sandwich spot off Toledo with Western Michigan on deck. We re not getting involved here. APPALACHIAN ST 35 Georgia Southern 17. A big rivalry game as these two have played every year since 1993 when they were in the So Con in FCS. Georgia Southern has played better under the interim head coach the last two weeks. The winless Eagles covered vs Troy and only lost by 4 to an improved Georgia St team (gave up TD with 2:31 left). On the other side, Appalachian St has clearly been overpriced in the market place as they are just 2-7 ATS this season and have 2 straight outright losses as road favorites. We re passing. PITTSBURGH 31 North Carolina 20. Each of the last 6 meetings have been decided by a TD or less. Both teams come in off byes. The Tar Heels actually should some signs of life in their near outright upse of Miami prior to the bye. Still the Tar Heels are 1-8 SU/2-7 ATS and are extremely banged up. Meanwhile, Pitt kept their slim bowl hopes alive by beating Duke and Virginia prior to the bye (Panthers still have to play Virginia Tech and Miami). Slight lean on Pittsburgh and the OVER. Friday, November 10th Temple 24 CINCINNATI 23. Both teams are off their best performances of the season as Temple controlled Navy from start to finish in a (+7) outright upset. Backup QB Nutile has done well replacing the injured Marchi with a 5-1 TD-to- INT ratio the last two games. The Owls are also +138 ypg the last 4 weeks after going -157 ypg the first 5 weeks. Meanwhile the Bearcats off a bye upset Tulane (+6) and are still battling for a bowl. We lean with the home underdog here. Washington 24 STANFORD 20. Stanford has legit revenge for a 44-6 loss at Washington last year, the worst loss in David Shaw s tenure. The Cardinal are on a 7-0 ATS run as a home underdog with 6 outright upsets and the last 3 times featured all outright upsets over Top 10 teams. Stanford is also on a 11-0 SU/ATS after suffering an outright loss as a favorite which was the case last week in their (-1.5) loss at Washington St. On the other side, Washington has feasted on a weak schedule as this will be the toughest opponent they face to date. We loved the cardinal at +7.5 and still lean with them at +6. UNLV 27 Byu 24. BYU is 8-0 SU all-time in games played at UNLV and they usually have good crowd support. The Cougars come in off a pair of covers after starting the season 0-8 ATS. The problem is QB Tanner Mangum injured his Achilles and is out for the season. On the other side, UNLV is off a win over Hawaii last week as we lost our VIP Top Totals Play on the OVER by a FG (Hawaii finished game on UNLV 23-yard line). A good lesson to be had as we bet this one early in the week prior to receiving the BYU QB news. At the current line, we re passing. Saturday, November 11th Michigan 30 MARYLAND 13. The Wolverines are starting to find themselves on offense as they have out-rushed their last two opponents by a combined and are off two comfortable wins. RB s Higdon and Evans combined for 391 yards themselves last week. Maryland 3rd string QB Max Bortenschlager (shoulder) is questionable here as the Terps had to play walk-on Ryan Brand last week. Pass until we get further clearance on the health of Bortenschlager here. SOUTH CAROLINA 27 Florida 17. Did Florida players officially quit last week? You usually get a one-game uptick with interim coach but they lost by 30 at Missouri. Meanwhile, we easily won a 2H on these pages backing South Carolina in their respectable loss at Georgia. Muschamp can get revenge over former employer. He didn t get it last year but if he gets chance, we expect him to put on an extra score or two. We like South Carolina here. Virginia Tech 24 GEORGIA TECH 23. The Hokies officially laid an egg on these pages last week in their loss at Miami as we made both a horrible bet and pick (markets were against us). Meanwhile, Georgia Tech s ATS streak has officially come to an end after they suffered an outright upset loss at Virginia. Last year it was the Jackets that got the outright upset over the Hokies and we again lean with the home dog but note the series visitor is on a 7-0 ATS run. Tulane 33 EAST CAROLINA 27. The Green Wave have been a big disappointment as after a promising 3-2 start, they ve dropped 4 straight and their bowl hopes are on life alert. Last week they were outright upset at home to Cincinnati On the other side, East Carolina is just 2-7 SU/ATS this season. Last week the Pirates did have a first down and yard edge vs Houston in a loss. The Pirates were -3 TO s and missed a FG. However, note that ECU had to run 98 plays to get those 504 yards (5.14 ypp) while Houston ran only 48 plays on offense to get their 472 yards (9.83 ypp). Pass on side, lean on UNDER. BOSTON COLLEGE 27 NC State 26. Great spot for BC coming off a bye taking on an NC State team off big games vs ND and Clemson and are now out of ACC championship race. Last year after Clemson, the Wolf Pack were dead meat in a blow out loss. Meanwhile, BC in a current 6-0 ATS stretch (avg cover by 20 ppg) trying to get to bowl eligibility with a win here. Their leading passer, rusher and receiver are all freshman as they continue to improve. Home dog outright. CENTRAL FLORIDA 49 Connecticut 14. Connecticut is in their largest underdog role since they were at No. 1 Miami, FL back in If you re wondering why this line is so high, it s because their QB Bryant Shirreffs (concussion) has been downgraded to out. On the other side, the Knights remain unbeaten but the noose has begun to tighten as they are 0-2 ATS their last 2. Even with the backup we lean with UConn here as 30-plus point underdogs are ATS this season. SYRACUSE 33 Wake Forest 30. Obviously we re not thrilled with Wake Forest last week as the Demon Deacons scored two late 4Q TD s to get the back door on us in their loss to Notre Dame. It was a admirable performance by the offense with 587 yards but the defense did allow 710 yards. Meanwhile Syracuse is off a misleading loss to Florida St as they had first down and yard edges but a couple of missed FG s cost them in the 3-point defeat. We lean with the home favorite here that has more bowl urgency at 4-5 SU. PENN ST 44 Rutgers 13. What frame of mind will Penn St be in here after losing two straight in the final seconds seeing their CFB Playoff hopes go up in smoke? Two weeks ago it was blowing an 18-point lead at Ohio St and last week, it was sitting in a visiting locker room for 3-hours in a weather delay. Meanwhile, Rutgers is starting to make noise in the second year under Chris Ash as they come in with 4 straight covers and 3 Big Ten wins in their last 4! Note Rutgers has been outgained by all 8 FBS opponents so far. We re leaning with the OVER here. 3H Duke 27 ARMY 17. Duke head coach Cutcliff and DC Knowles are masters of defending the option (5-1 SU/6-0 ATS vs GT, Navy and Army the last 3 years). Last year Duke held Army to their 2nd lowest rush yards of season (165 yards and 3.8 ypc). Duke is desperate at 4-5 to get to bowl eligibility and has extra time to prep coming off a bye week. They re catching Army off a big rivalry win over Air Force 21-0 and. Duke is great in non-conference action at 18-4 ATS. We have match-up, situation and technical all in our favor here. That s why the Blue Devils are a best bet. OHIO ST 34 Michigan St 21. The winner here takes command in the Big Ten East Division especially Michigan St who would have wins over Michigan, Penn St and Ohio St. Michigan St is on a 17-4 ATS run as an underdog including 14 outright upsets. They come in off a thrilling last second upset of Penn St in a game that featured a 3-hour weather delay. Meanwhile, it s official...the Buckeyes are starting to slip under Urban Meyer just like Florida did in Year 6 under him. Last week Ohio St failed to cover the spread by more than 50 points in an embarrassing loss at Iowa that derailed their CFB Playoff hopes. J.T. Barrett s comeback Heisman campaign last all but one week as he threw 4 INT s. Are the Bucks angry or feeling sorry about themselves? We re backing the the Spartans who are 5-0 to this number vs Ohio St the last 5 years. 2H Indiana 31 ILLINOIS 17. The Hoosiers come in at 0-6 in the Big Ten but they re much better than their record indicates as they are actually +21 ypg on the season. Last week was another Phony Final as they only trailed Wisconsin entering the 4Q but 3 Indiana TO s led to 21 Wisconsin points and it appeared to be a blowout. That coincides with a misleading Ohio St blowout loss (led Q), they were only -18 yards in a 31-point loss to Penn St and had really close losses to Michigan, Michigan St and Maryland that could ve gone either way. On the other side, the Illini are one of the youngest teams in the country and are -97 ypg on the season. We like the Hoosiers to get a bounce back win here as they need to win their final 3 games to get to bowl eligibility. Troy 31 COASTAL CAROLINA 17. Last week Coastal Carolina nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season as they led Arkansas entering the 4Q as 24-point underdogs. However, they came up one-point short and fell to just 1-8 SU in their inaugural FBS season with 8 straight losses. On the other side, Troy continues to get wins but they are overvalued in the market place at ATS and last week only beat Idaho by 3 as an 18-point home favorite. Slightest of leans on the home team here. Middle Tennessee 31 CHARLOTTE 17. Brent Stockstill is back at QB for the Blue Raiders but last week showed some rust (13 of 30) in the 30-3 win over UTEP. This week they take on a Charlotte team that was shut out 6-0 at Old Dominion last week. It was a pathetic performance considering ODU had been allowing 36 ppg prior. We lean with the road team here. Wyoming 27 AIR FORCE 26. Wyoming has covered 8 straight games vs Air Force. Last week Air Force got shutout for the first time since 1992 (306 games) in their 21-0 loss to Army. Meanwhile, Wyoming is surging with 6 straight covers (5-1 SU) and last week upset Colorado St (+4.5). Make it 9 straight covers! 3

4 NEVADA 40 San Jose St 23. Not much has gone right for either first year head coach as these two are a combined 2-17 SU. We ve seen a little more life out of Nevada as of late especially on offense but that was before last week when they suffered a loss at Boise St. On the other side, there are no buy signs for San Jose St who was drilled 52-7 by San Diego St. Still this line looks pretty steep to lay for a 1-8 SU team. Pass on side, lean on UNDER. Texas Tech 37 Baylor TX. Baylor has covered 4 of their last 6 games after a beatdown of Kansas last week that gave head coach Matt Rhule his first win. The move to freshman Brewer paid off (315 passing yards but it was against Kansas). Meanwhile, the Kingsbury era might be coming to an end as the Red Raiders are now on a 0-4 SU/ATS run after losing in OT at home to Kansas St last week. QB Shimonek has a 26-7 TD-to-INT ratio. Slight lean on the Bears. KANSAS ST 31 West Virginia 27. To no surprise, Bil Snyder is 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS vs Dana Holgorsen. Last week West Virginia barely held on to a 20-0 lead over Iowa St as they held on for a 0.5-point cover. On the other side, Kansas St got an OT win over Texas Tech as they scored game s final 18 points. With starter Ertz out and backup Delton banged up, they had to go to 3rd string freshman Skylar Thompson. We d have a play on the Wildcats here if we had a more clearer picture of their QB situation (see page 1). Still lean on the UNDER. OKLAHOMA 33 Tcu 28. TCU comes in off a solid performance vs Texas as they handed Tom Herman his first ATS loss in the underdog role. Meanwhile, the Sooners come in off the barn burner Bedlam game which featured 1,400 yards as they once again got the best of their rivals in a shoot-out. TCU is on a 13-3 ATS run as a road underdog. The Horned Frogs have the much better defense (allowing only 7 ppg last 4) in a better spot (catching OU off Bedlam normally played at end of season). Normally, we d have a play on TCU here but we have two issues; First, what Kenny Hill are we going to see? The one who has thrown only 5 picks all year, or the one that had 3 TO s in key loss at Iowa St two weeks ago? Also we haven t had a great pulse on TCU games this year. Oklahoma St 33 IOWA ST 30. Both teams come in off tough losses as Oklahoma St lost another Bedlam to Oklahoma while Iowa St lost at West Virginia in a tough spot. One of our favorite personal handicapping philosophies is to backing defensive home underdogs. It s quite simple you have the better defense, you don t give up many points and you re getting points at home. Plus with both teams most likely out of the Big 12 Title race, Iowa St is more trust-worthy especially after impressive second half vs West Virginia (trailed 20-0, lost 20-16). LOUISVILLE 37 Virginia 27. All 3 meetings have been decided by a TD or less including last year when Virginia nearly won outright as a 5-TD favorite! The Cavs got to bowl eligibility last week thanks to a a come-from-behind win over Georgia Tech. On the other side the Cardinals come in off a bye. However, dating back to the end of last season, Louisville is just 2-11 ATS. We lean with the road dog here. Notre Dame 27 MIAMI 26. A renewed historic rivalry a little less than 30 years after the famous Catholics vs Convicts game. The Irish have won 4 straight over Miami but this is the first time they ve played at Miami since ND comes in off by far their worst defensive performance of season as they allowed 587 yards and 37 points to Wake Forest as we got backdoored in the final minute on these pages. On the other side, we went against Miami and they kicked our teeth down our throat in their win over Virginia Tech. We re not getting too involved here although we did bet the Hurricanes getting the hook early in the week. The best value is the UNDER. NAVY 34 Smu 30. Navy has covered 8 of the last 10 games in the series and have blown out the Ponies in each of the last two years. A win here will make Navy bowl eligible. The Middies are coming off a disappointing effort vs Temple as they were controlled from start to finish (trailed before scoring a couple of garbage TD s). On the other side, SMU had a nice showing with a cover vs unbeaten UCF. With Navy QB Zach Abey s status (shoulder) in question, we re passing for now. UTAH 27 Washington St 26. Only Mike Leach coached teams can win by just 3 despite holding 25-9 FD and yard edges but that was the case last week vs Stanford. Meanwhile, the Utes are in off one of their best performances of the season in a blowout of UCLA. In the last 20 years, Utah is 11-4 ATS as a home underdog with 6 outright wins. They also catch Washington St playing a 11th straight game and the Cougars have been awful on the road this year (-11 ppg compared to +20 ppg at home). Lean on the home team. NORTHWESTERN 27 Purdue 21. Certainly impressed by Purdue which has showed improvement under first year HC Brohm. Last week they handled the role as double-digit favorite beating Illinois but lost QB Blough to a leg injury. Northwestern has won and covered 4 straight with the line under 4 in each game winning 3 as a favorite and pulling one small upset. They became the first team in CFB history to win 3 straight games in OT. Teams may have looked past the Boilermakers in the past when hosting them as Purdue is on a 14-3 ATS run as a road underdog. However, those were usually steep lines and this number is short. We lean with the home team. MISSISSIPPI 44 UL-Lafayette 24. Rare when an SEC team will have more motivation over a non-conference opponent in November. The Rebels lost their starting QB in a loss to LSU then with a JC transfer, Jordan Ta amu making his first start, Ole Miss lost a heart-breaker to Arkansas, Last week with Ta amu in his first road start he led a 71 yard, 14 play drive scoring a game winning TD with :05 left capping off a great performance ( , 4-0 ratio) much to the dismay of our VIP update as we had Kentucky ULL also has 4 wins after pulling an upset at South Alabama but with home games against New Mexico St and Georgia Southern will health be their priority here? Ole Miss now with 6 straight Overs thanks to a defense that is allowing 37 ppg and 465 ypg. Pass. MINNESOTA 24 Nebraska 23. Both teams at 4-5 trying to win two of their last three to pick up that coveted 6th win and a bowl berth. The rowing has been tough for PJ Fleck and his Gophers as he is 1-5 SU and ATS in conference play thanks to an offense averaging 286 ypg in B10 action with 339 being the most they have gained in conference play (came in win at home vs Illinois). Nebraska meanwhile has split their B10 games knocking off losing teams Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue while losing to better completion in Wisconsin, Ohio St and Michigan. Pass. Alabama 31 MISSISSIPPI ST 15. This is the third straight season that Bama has played LSU and Miss St in B2B games and they ve had no issues beating the Bulldogs by a combined 82-9 the last two seasons. Not sure what to expect from the Bulldogs who have scored 35+ points in 4 straight games, albeit 3 came against teams as 14, 23 and 32.5 points favorites, while in their two games against top-15 defenses (Georgia & Auburn) they totaled 13 points. Bama is coming of a win versus LSU but they were held to under 300 yards for the first time at home since 2011 (9-6 loss also to LSU). On the road however the Tide is 9-2 ATS as a SEC road favorite. We lean with the Crimson Tide here. Also note the UNDER is on a 9-1 run in the series. Florida Atlantic 34 LOUISIANA TECH 30. FAU has now reeled off 5 straight wins (4-1 ATS) and it s interesting that one ATS loss came last week as HC Kiffin took a safety late and mentioned the non-cover on Twitter (see page 1). FAU has been outgained their last 2 despite being a 6.5 point away favorite at WKU and a 7-point home favorite versus Marshall thanks to aa defense that leads the country with 18 interceptions including 4 last week. La Tech continues to come up just short as they endured a third one-point loss in their last 6 games, this time against North Texas as the offense had a season low 315 yards. Only third home dog role for Bulldogs in the last 4 seasons as they lost to Mississippi St this season while upsetting WKU last year. Lean on home team and the UNDER. Southern Miss 31 RICE 17. Southern Miss looks to clinch bowl eligibility and why not expect to do it on the road where they are 3-1 SU beating ULM, upsetting both UTSA and La Tech and then last week going into Tennessee and outgaining the Volunteers losing in part to a -2 TO deficit. Rice may look dead in the water with an 1-8 record while going 2-7 ATS but they have outgained both La Tech and UAB in each of their last two games. What is eye-popping is that the Owls were even in TO s in two games this year but they are -20 TO s in the other seven. Expect Rice to start their third QB in the last 4 games as last week rfr Sam Glassman was pulled after 2 passes (one an int) and true frosh Miklo Smalls was inserted and went with a 1-1 ratio. We lean with the road team. 2H Colorado (plus the points) Usc 38 COLORADO 30. Trojans offense back in gear with B2B games topping 600 yards putting up 48 and 49 points against the Arizona teams. They are playing an 11th straight week and have UCLA on deck. On the other side, we went against Colorado on these pages last week and got a fortunate cover as they were outscored 24-3 in the 4Q by Arizona St. The Buffaloes offense is much different at home putting up 553 and 551 yards against California and Arizona with QB Steven Montez throwing for 69% at home while tossing for 51% away. Overall, the Buffs are +8 ppg and +88 ypg at home compared to -1 ppg and -126 ypg away from home. Also USC is on a 5-15 ATS run as a double-digit road favorite. WISCONSIN 27 Iowa 17. The visitor has covered 5 of the last 6 including Iowa pulling the upset the last time here (+6, 10-6). After upsetting Ohio St last week with a shocking 50-point cover, Iowa tries to squash any B10 playoff hopes of having a playoff team by beating Wisconsin. We saw Ohio St and Penn St both go down last week off an emotional game but don t feel this is the same as those teams were playing with playoff aspirations while the Hawkeyes are not. Last year Iowa upset No. 2 Michigan art home (+21.5, 14-13) and the next week shutout Illinois Iowa has yet to allow over 24 points to a B10 foe and while Wisconsin may be 6-0 in B10 action, Northwestern is the only conference team they ve faced with a winning record. Lean on Iowa here. 3H AUBURN 24 Georgia 21. Auburn certainly in revenge-mode with 3 straight losses including as an 8 point away favorite last year (13-7), a pick em in 14 (20-13) and as a FG dog in 13 (34-7). Let s look at what these two teams have done. TEAM A is 9 spots better on offense (No. 22 vs No. 31) while TEAM B is 10 spots better on defense (#4 vs #14) so we ll call it even. Both teams have played Miss St and Missouri with TEAM A wining and TEAM B winning 86-31, edge goes to TEAM A. Team A, of course is Auburn. Now add in that Auburn has been a home dog only 6 times in five years going 4-2 ATS including 2-0 LY with both losses as an unranked team in 2015 while Georgia is an away favorite against a ranked foe for the first time since Defensive Home Dog, sign us up!. MISSOURI 35 Tennessee 26. You have to give a lot of credit to Barry Odom who was under a lot of heat earlier this year. Since his passionate press conference, the Tigers have covered 5 straight games after the bye and have won 3 straight games in blowout fashion. On the other side, Tennessee got a win last week but it was phony as they were outgained by Southern Miss in the win. Still we think this line is a bit inflated here due to Missouri s hot run. Small lean on Tennessee. TEXAS A&M 37 New Mexico 17. Earlier this year Bob Davie came under investigation for some mistreatment of players and we re wondering if Davie, who has done a solid job here has lost this team as the Lobos have now lost 4 straight games after their bye and their bowl hopes are on life support now. On the other side, Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin isn t in better shape considering the Aggies are coming off back-to-back double digit losses at home. Don t see a tremendous amount of value here. We re passing. 4

5 2H Arizona St 38 UCLA 34. Arizona St has pulled the outright upset over the Bruins in each of the last two seasons. Even with Josh Rosen back under center here, we want nothing to do with the Bruins. In fact, his return gives us a little bit of line value. Last week we backed the Sun Devils on these pages and they got a fortunate cover vs Colorado outscoring the Buffs 24-3 in the 4Q. With that being said, they still had a dominating rushing yard edge and should feast upon an extremely poor UCLA defense. We think they have more upside here vs a possible lame duck Jim Mora. VANDERBILT 28 Kentucky 24. The favorite has covered 7 of 8 in the series. Last week we had VIP picks involving both teams as Vanderbilt came through for us in their win and cover over Western Kentucky while the Wildcats gave up a TD pass with :05 left to lose to Ole Miss as 3.5-point favorites. Kentucky already has clinched bowl eligibility as this game means more to Vanderbilt. We lean with the home team vs an overrated Kentucky team that is now just 2-7 ATS. Arkansas St 34 SOUTH ALABAMA 20. Not only has Arkansas St gone 4-0 SU/ ATS in the series they have covered the last 3 by 15 PPG. Arkansas St is on a 20-1 SU/17-4 ATS run in Sun Belt play. Quite simply, they are better than the rest of the Sun Belt and should cruise here over a South Alabama team that has been underachieving all season and just lost their starting RB for the season. Georgia St 24 TEXAS ST 20. Sunday Night Owl customers have won back-toback weeks with Texas St who has been much improved in Year 2 under head coach Withers. Speaking of improvement, the Panthers have shown big-time improvement since the first two weeks of the season as they are on a 5-1 SU run. They ll get another win here but we think the Bobcats take home the cash. NORTH TEXAS 37 Utep 16. The Mean Green are 0-3 SU/ATS the last 3 years including getting upset as a small favorite the last two seasons. Last year North Texas was 5-6 playing the regular season finale looking for a bowl-eligible win and allowed a season high 52 points (High APR sent them to a bowl with not enough teams qualifying). This year North Texas controls its own destiny in the CUSA West division after their big win over Louisiana Tech last week. Meanwhile, the UTEP offense continues to struggle with only 31 points scored combined in the 4 games since Mike Price took over. With that being said, this line looks a little steep. Small lean on the road team. TEXAS 44 Kansas 10. Dating back to 2009, Kansas has lost 44 straight road games going ATS. Last year s Kansas game has a lot to do with new staff roaming the sidelines as the Longhorns were 5-5 when they went to Kansas and lost as a 23.5 point favorite which pretty much ended the Charlie Strong era. No matter who plays QB here for the Longhorns, they can name their score. MARSHALL 31 Western Kentucky 21. Marshall has 3 years of frustration to take out on this foe as they were embarrassed 60-6 last year and they played for the CUSA East title berth in the regular season finale in 2015 (lost 49-28) and in 2014 Western Kentucky ended Marshall s unbeaten season (Herd lost as 23.5 point favorites). Last week the Herd got the back door thanks to a late safety via Lane Kiffin s play-calling. Last week we cashed going against Western Kentucky on these pages as they not only lost to Vanderbilt but their star QB White went out due to injury and is questionable here. For now we ll wait and see on his status. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 28 Old Dominion 17. FIU has now won 3 straight games all as an underdog in outright fashion as head coach Butch Davis has this program heading in the right direction already in Year one. The same can t be said for Old Dominion who has taken a big step back this season after notching 10 wins a year ago. Last week s 6-0 win over Charlotte set offensive football back decades. We like the Panthers here and bet them at an early number. Updated College Football Power Ratings for Week 11 Rank Team Pre 11/7 1 Alabama Georgia Clemson Oklahoma Ohio State Penn State Auburn Washington Notre Dame TCU Oklahoma State Wisconsin USC LSU Miami (FL) NC State Michigan Texas Washington State Mississippi State Virginia Tech Stanford UCF Michigan State Iowa Georgia Tech Louisville Iowa State Wake Forest Arizona USF Florida State West Virginia Rank Team Pre 11/7 34 Kansas State South Carolina Syracuse Memphis Boise State Northwestern Utah Boston College Texas A&M Indiana Arizona State Missouri Texas Tech Houston Toledo Colorado Pittsburgh Florida Purdue California Oregon San Diego State Duke Vanderbilt Virginia UCLA Kentucky Ole Miss Nebraska Tennessee Minnesota Colorado State Navy UTSA 30 Uab 23. These two have met once in 2013 and it was the Roadrunners first home win as a CUSA member (UTSA -8, 52-31). We continue to write how weak the competition was in UTSA s 5 wins and for the third time this year they took on a team with a winning record and lost. The Roadrunners gained a season low 261 yards at FIU and while the defense allowed a 5th team to not top 17 points this year it wasn t enough in the 14-7 loss. Underrated Blazer HC Bill Clark has UAB bowl eligible their first season back playing solid fundamental football as they lost the TO battle only once all season, have a QB in AJ Erdely, who went last week and a ground attack led by Spencer Brown (1 of 2 Fr w/ rushing TY) who has topped 140 yards in 6 of his last 8 games. We ll take the hook here. CLEMSON 31 Florida St 13. While the favorite has won the last 3 meetings, the dog has covered all of them. Florida St is off a misleading win vs Syracuse last week in which they were -120 yards and benefited from 2 missed Cuse FG s. They still haven t covered a point spread this season and we haven t seen a clear buy sign. We wonder how much does Florida St s defense have left in the tank? Run over by BC and faced 95 plays last week vs Cuse. This is their largest underdog role since 2009 but we re fading here as Clemson has an opportunity to do what FSU did to them a couple years...step on their neck. LSU 37 Arkansas 20. The Tigers dropped 4 straight ATS against the Hogs with Les Miles as head coach but last year with Ed Orgeron as the interim they were a 7 point away favorites winning Jekyll and Hyde Arkansas is coming off a 1-point win over Coastal Carolina, a game that they actually trailed by 12 entering the 4Q. That usually means an A effort here if you ve been following them under head coach Bielema. The Hogs are 8-2 ATS last 10 vs LSU and are usually catching the Tigers off physical Bama game. We wonder if there will be any rust on Arkansas QB Brandon Allen who returns from injury here after missing the last several games. On the other side, that s now 4 straight solid efforts out of LSU after they outgained Alabama in a 14-point loss but did cover. We re passing here. ARIZONA 45 Oregon St 24. The home team has not only covered the two recent meetings they ve done so by 22 (OSU -3, last year) and by 27 points (Arizona -10, 44-7). The Wildcats come in off a 14-point loss to USC in a back-and-forth game that actually saw Arizona tie it in the middle of the fourth quarter. On the other side, the bubble may have burst for the Beavers under their interim coach as they fell to Cal by 14. Still with a questionable Arizona defense, this is a lot of points to lay here. Still we prefer a slight lean toward the UNDER. Boise St 31 COLORADO ST 27. When Boise St started 2-2, there were many doubts surrounding head coach Bryan Harsin. However, those two losses look better now as they fell to a Pac-12 contender in Washington St on the road in 3OT s and Virginia is a legit bowl team in the ACC. Meanwhile, the Broncos have reeled off 5 straight wins and last week covered at home for the first time in 3 years. On the other side, the Rams have been going in the wrong direction as they have now failed to cover in 4 straight games losing each of their last two outright as a favorite. This could be their last stand here and we ll lean with them one more time. Fresno St 31 HAWAII 23. Last week we had a top VIP pick on the OVER in the Hawaii/UNLV game and we came up just short in the end with Hawaii driving late. Hawaii has been more Rainbow than Warrior this season as they ve dropped 7 straight games ATS losing all but one of those straight up. Meanwhile, Fresno St got to bowl eligibility with a win over BYU last week but it was the 2nd straight game they failed to cover as they were dealing with point spread inflation after their ATS start. We don t see much value here. Pass. brad powers ats stat of the week: Stanford is on a 11-0 SU/ATS run after suffering an outright loss as a favorite. Last week the Cardinal lost (-1.5) at Wash St. This week +6 at home vs Wash. Rank Team Pre 11/7 67 Arkansas State Florida Atlantic Army Arkansas Maryland Baylor Northern Illinois SMU Eastern Michigan North Carolina Wyoming Fresno State Troy Rutgers Ohio Marshall Air Force Oregon State Temple Southern Miss Appalachian State Western Michigan UTSA Tulane Utah State Western Kentucky Central Michigan Middle Tennessee Louisiana Tech North Texas New Mexico State Massachusetts Illinois Biggest Movers Since Preseason Rank Team Pre 11/7 Team Pts 100 Akron UCF Cincinnati Miami (OH) UAB FIU Florida Atlantic Tulsa Georgia New Mexico Purdue UNLV Fresno St Buffalo BYU Michigan St UAB Arizona Nevada Mississippi St Georgia State Iowa St UL-Lafayette Notre Dame Hawaii UL-Monroe Oregon St Bowling Green Old Dominion Connecticut Ga Southern South Alabama Oregon Idaho UCLA Old Dominion East Carolina W Kentucky Kansas Arkansas Rice Tulsa Texas State Tennessee Coastal Carolina Baylor Georgia Southern Kent State North Carolina Charlotte Ball St UTEP Florida Ball State San Jose St San Jose State BYU Florida St -17.5

6 Updated College Football Records: Straight Up, ATS and Over/Under Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Ov Home Away Overall Home Away Overall Home Away Air Force Akron Alabama Appalachian St Arizona State Arizona Arkansas Arkansas State Army Auburn Ball State Baylor Boise State Boston College Bowling Green Buffalo BYU California Central Florida Central Mich Charlotte Cincinnati Clemson Coastal Carolina Colorado Colorado State Connecticut Duke East Carolina Eastern Mich Florida Atlantic Florida Florida Intl Florida State Fresno State Georgia Ga Southern Georgia State Georgia Tech Hawaii Houston Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Iowa State Kansas Kansas State Kent State Kentucky LSU Louisiana Tech Louisville Marshall Maryland Massachusetts Memphis Miami (FL) Miami (OH) Michigan State Michigan Middle Tenn Minnesota Mississippi Mississippi State Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Ov Home Away Overall Home Away Overall Home Away Missouri Navy Nebraska Nevada New Mexico New Mexico St NC State North Carolina North Texas Northern Illinois Northwestern Notre Dame Ohio Ohio State Oklahoma Oklahoma State Old Dominion Oregon Oregon State Penn State Pittsburgh Purdue Rice Rutgers San Diego State San Jose State SMU South Alabama South Carolina South Florida Southern Miss Stanford Syracuse TCU Temple Tennessee Texas A&M Texas Texas State Texas Tech Toledo Troy Tulane Tulsa UAB UCLA UL-Lafayette UL-Monroe UNLV USC Utah State Utah UTEP UTSA Vanderbilt Virginia Virginia Tech Wake Forest Washington Washington St West Virginia W Kentucky Western Mich Wisconsin Wyoming CFB VIP Late Phone/ Service (Includes Every CFB H-Rated Play): Just $249 Call ! Mention Special Code: Page 6 6