PowerS picks $15. Week 9 CFB Best Bets Pg 3, Week 8 NFL Best Bets Pg 8

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1 PowerS picks $15 Volume 5 Issue 16 October 26-30, BP Sports, LLC Better, But Not Good Enough: Best Bets Last 5 Wks Week 9 CFB Best Bets Pg 3, Week 8 NFL Best Bets Pg 8 Week 8 News and Notes! For those of you that are new, in this section we ll recap what happened last week specifically, the misleading finals, the key injuries, the bad beats and the line moves. We ll include most of these recaps here, therefore you don t have to waste time reading about them in my game-by-game write-ups for the upcoming week. Without further adieu, here s a run down of what happened last week in the world of CFB. Week 8 Trends Favorites-Dogs Straight Up ATS Home-Away Straight Up ATS Totals (O/U) Over-Under Largest Favorites to Cover: TCU (-37) vs Kansas, 43-0 Alabama (-36.5) vs Tennessee, 45-7 Wisconsin (-24) vs Maryland, Va Tech (-20) vs North Carolina, 59-7 Auburn (-17) at Arkansas, Ohio (-17) vs Kent St, 48-3 Biggest Money line Upsets: Arizona St +300 won at Utah as 10-point underdogs. Charlotte +300 won in OT vs UAB as 9.5-point underdogs. Rutgers +280 won vs Purdue as 9.5-point underdogs. Pittsburgh +280 won vs Duke as 9-point underdogs. Boston College +220 won at Virginia as 7-point underdogs. ATS Notables Unders are now (55.3%) this season. Visitors are now ATS (56%) this season! QB Brandon Wimbush and Notre Dame (-4) ran by USC last Saturday night as the Irish piled up a rushing yard edge over the Trojans. The 35-point margin of victory (49-14) was the largest for Notre Dame in the series since 1966! Best ATS teams so far: Georgia Tech (6-0), UCF (5-0) and Fresno St (6-0-1). Marshall, Notre Dame and Southern Miss are 6-1 ATS. Worst ATS teams so far: BYU (0-8), Florida St (0-5-1), Tennessee (0-6-1) and Kansas (0-6-1). Bowling Green, North Carolina and USC are all 1-7 ATS. Best OVER teams so far: UL-Monroe, Maryland and Ole Miss have all seen their games go 6-1 to the OVER. Best UNDER teams so far: Troy (7-0). Akron, Middle Tennessee and Syracuse have all seen their games go 7-1 to the UNDER. Arizona St, Eastern Michigan, Hawaii and New Mexico have seen their games go 6-1 to the UNDER. Double Bad Beat in Maryland/Wisconsin Late in the fourth quarter Wisconsin was driving deep in Maryland territory holding a lead. The Badgers were favored by 24 and the OVER/UNDER was around 50 at most shops. A first down would have ended the game, but the Badgers came up about a foot short. Instead of going for it, Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst elected to take a time out and then decided on a 33-yard FG attempt with just :36 left that sent the game OVER the total by a point and also gave Wisconsin a 1-point cover. Misleading Finals Purdue (-9.5) lost outright to Rutgers despite having 25-8 first down and yard edges. The Boilers were -2 in TO s and were stopped on downs 3 times (like having 5 TO s). UNLV (-3) was up over Utah St but the Aggies scored 38 straight points to finish the game. UNLV QB Armani Rogers got hurt and didn t return. West Virginia (-10) led Baylor entering the 4Q but had to hang on for a win as they stopped a late 2-point conversion with :17 left that would have sent the game to OT. Recapping Our Best Bets Last Week Last week we had a 3H on Louisiana Tech (-2.5) on these pages and it was a bad bet and also a bad beat. First, Louisiana Tech closed -1 as the bigger, sharper money was against us. However, it looked like we had the right handicap as Louisiana Tech led with under two minutes left. However, Southern Miss got a FG 1:23 left to cut the lead to Then Southern Miss recovered an onside kick and would score a TD with just :31. The 2-point conversion tied it as the two teams went to OT. In the first OT, both teams threw interceptions and in the second OT, Southern Miss got a TD while Louisiana Tech was stopped on downs. In the end, Southern Miss won scoring the game s final 18 points. Our second 3H on these pages last week was Michigan St (-6.5) over Indiana. Now this was one of our rare extremely fortunate winners this year as the Spartans trailed 9-3 mid-way through the 4Q. Michgian St scored a TD with 5:59 left to take a 10-9 lead. Then on their next drive Michigan St converted a 3&9 with 2:26 left down to the Indiana 18-yard line. The Spartans would get another TD on the following play as the Hoosiers let them score a TD in order to get the ball back. The final 1:49 was the only time all game Michigan St covered in the game. We also had a 2H on Eastern Michigan (+3) on these pages last week and the line dropped to +2.5 at most shops on game day. We probably had the right side as a couple of fumbles inside the Western Michigan 25-yard line cost us during regulation. The game would go to OT as both teams missed critical FG s (Western at end of regulation and Eastern in OT). Western Michigan would win as we would push the bet. Central Florida (-7) was a 2H on these pages last week and it was a very good bet as the Knights would close -9.5 and even -10 at some shops on game day. UCF never trailed in the game outright but we did need a TD with 3:30 left to secure the cover. There were a couple of missed scoring opportunities for UCF in the game including getting stopped on downs at the Navy 3-yard line in the first half. Finally we had a 2H on Missouri (-14.5) over Idaho on these pages. Missouri led at halftime and won Enough said! Major Injuries Clemson QB Kelly Bryant (concussion) has been upgraded to probable vs Georgia Tech this Saturday. Ole Miss QB Shea Patterson (knee) is out for the season. Stanford RB Bryce Love (ankle) is? for this Friday s game at Oregon St. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger (concussion) is? for this week s game at Baylor. UNLV QB Armani Rogers (concussion) is? for this week s game at Fresno St. Western Michigan QB Jon Wassink (shoulder) is out 6-8 weeks. More Handicapping Service Records BP Sports NFL VIP H-rated plays and top leans: BP Sports College VIP H-rated plays and top leans: Sunday Night Owl Best Bets (excluding Week 1): Vegas Wise Guys Report: Steam Chasing Sharp $ (CFB/NFL): Vegas Wise Guys Report: Pros vs Joes Games of Week: Pros Northcoast Sports Executive Club (3H s and higher): (-37.9 units) Phil Steele ESPN Insider Bets Bets: Nationwide Football Newsletter Contest (Regular Season Only) We are happy to provide you with the records, standings and plays used from the Power Sweep (3H, 4H & Underdog), Gold Sheet (Key Releases), Power Plays (4.5H), Sports Reporter (Best & Super Bets), Winning Points (Best Bets & Preferred), Playbook (3-5H s), Pointwise (Ratings 1-4) and Powers Picks (1-4H s) College NFL College/NFL Combined Newsletter W L T % Net Newsletter W L T % Net Newsletter W L T % Net Gold Sheet % 0 Power Sweep % 6 Power Sweep % 2 Pointwise % -2 Sports Reporter % 2 Gold Sheet % -1 Playbook % -2 Gold Sheet % -1 Pointwise % -4 Power Sweep % -4 Powers Picks % -1 Sports Reporter % -3 Power Plays % -3 Pointwise % -2 Powers Picks % -7 Powers Picks % -6 Winning Points % -5 Playbook % -7 Sports Reporter % -5 Playbook % -5 Winning Points % -13 Winning Points % -8 Power Plays % -3 Power Plays % -6 Combined % -30 Combined % -9 Combined % -39

2 CFB/NFL Schedules Week 9 Oct 26th-30th NFL/CFB Thursday, Oct 26th Line BP All Times Eastern 101 MIAMI :25 p.m. CBS 102 BALTIMORE TOLEDO :00 p.m. 104 BALL ST SOUTH ALABAMA :30 p.m. ESPNU 106 GEORGIA ST EASTERN MICHIGAN :00 p.m. CBS College 108 NORTHERN ILLINOIS STANFORD :00 p.m. ESPN 110 OREGON ST Friday, October 27th Line BP 111 FLORIDA ST :00 p.m. ESPN 112 BOSTON COLLEGE TULANE :00 p.m. CBS College 114 MEMPHIS TULSA :00 p.m. ESPN2 116 SMU Saturday, October 28th Line BP All Times Eastern 117 NEBRASKA :30 p.m. Big Ten 118 PURDUE TENNESSEE :30 p.m. SEC Network 120 KENTUCKY VANDERBILT :00 p.m. SEC Network 122 SOUTH CAROLINA BUFFALO :30 a.m. CBS College 124 AKRON LOUISVILLE :20 p.m. 128 WAKE FOREST MIAMI, FL :00 p.m. ESPN2 130 NORTH CAROLINA RUTGERS :00 p.m. Big Ten 132 MICHIGAN FIU :30 p.m. 134 MARSHALL APPALACHIAN ST :30 p.m. 136 MASSACHUSETTS VIRGINIA :30 p.m. 138 PITTSBURGH GEORGIA TECH :00 p.m. ABC/ESPN2 140 CLEMSON MISSOURI :30 p.m. CBS College 142 CONNECTICUT OKLAHOMA ST :00 p.m. ABC 144 WEST VIRGINIA INDIANA :30 p.m. Big Ten 146 MARYLAND DUKE :20 p.m. 148 VIRGINIA TECH TEXAS ST :00 p.m. 150 COASTAL CAROLINA WISCONSIN :00 p.m. 152 ILLINOIS KANSAS ST :00 p.m. FOX Sports KANSAS MINNESOTA :30 p.m. FOX Sports IOWA NEW MEXICO :30 p.m. ESPNU 158 WYOMING ARKANSAS ST :00 p.m. 160 NEW MEXICO ST SAN JOSE ST :00 p.m. 162 BYU UTSA :00 p.m. 164 UTEP UL-MONROE :00 p.m. 166 IDAHO AIR FORCE :00 p.m. CBS College 168 COLORADO ST UAB :00 p.m. 170 SOUTHERN MISS CALIFORNIA :00 p.m. Pac COLORADO USC :45 p.m. ESPN 174 ARIZONA ST LOUISIANA TECH :30 p.m. 176 RICE UTAH :45 p.m. Pac OREGON NC STATE :30 p.m. NBC 180 NOTRE DAME UCLA :30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2 182 WASHINGTON GEORGIA SOUTHERN :30 p.m. 184 TROY MICHIGAN ST :30 p.m. ESPN 186 NORTHWESTERN OLD DOMINION :30 p.m. 190 NORTH TEXAS TEXAS :00 p.m. ESPNU 192 BAYLOR TCU :30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2 194 IOWA ST GEORGIA :30 p.m. CBS 196 FLORIDA FLORIDA ATLANTIC :30 p.m. 198 WKU WASHINGTON ST :30 p.m. Pac ARIZONA TEXAS TECH :00 p.m. ABC/ESPN2 202 OKLAHOMA ARKANSAS :00 p.m. SEC Network 204 MISSISSIPPI PENN ST :30 p.m. FOX 206 OHIO ST MISSISSIPPI ST :15 p.m. ESPN 208 TEXAS A&M BOISE ST :00 p.m. CBS College 210 UTAH ST UNLV :00 p.m. 212 FRESNO ST UCF NL NFL Wk 8 Sunday, October 29th Line BP All Times Eastern 251 MINNESOTA :30 England NFL Network 252 CLEVELAND CHICAGO :00 p.m. FOX 254 NEW ORLEANS ATLANTA :00 p.m. FOX 256 N.Y. JETS SAN DIEGO ST :15 p.m. ESPN2 214 HAWAII HOUSTON :45 p.m. ESPNU 216 SOUTH FLORIDA AUSTIN PEAY NL 5:00 p.m. 257 CAROLINA :00 p.m. FOX 258 TAMPA BAY SAN FRANCISCO :00 p.m. FOX 260 PHILADELPHIA OAKLAND :00 p.m. CBS 262 BUFFALO INDIANAPOLIS :00 p.m. CBS 264 CINCINNATI L.A. CHARGERS :00 p.m. FOX 266 NEW ENGLAND HOUSTON :05 p.m. CBS 268 SEATTLE DALLAS :25 p.m. FOX 270 WASHINGTON PITTSBURGH :30 p.m. NBC 272 DETROIT Monday, October 30th Line BP All Times Eastern 273 DENVER :30 p.m. ESPN 274 KANSAS CITY brad powers ats stat of the week: Urban Meyer with extra time to prep (openers, byes and bowls) is 47-4 SU/ ATS in his career! His last straight up loss in regular season: 2001!

3 4H = BEST 3H = BETTER 2H = GOOD 1H = FAIR THE POWERS PACK 3H NC State (+7.5) over NOTRE DAME 2H Tcu (-6.5) over IOWA ST 2H Virginia (+3) over PITTSBURGH 2H NORTH TEXAS (-10.5) over Old Dominion 2H OVER 64.5 Washington St/ARIZONA Games in Rotation Order HOME TEAM IN CAPS Thursday, October 26th Toledo 40 BALL ST 17. Fresh off a 56-9 (+3) loss at home to Central Michigan, the Cardinals are now ATS in their last 5 games and Ball St is in their largest home underdog role since They ve actually failed to cover the spread by a combined 106 points in their last 3 games. Conversely, Toledo fresh off a pair of blowout wins over Central Michigan and Akron are in their largest away favorite role since With an outlier line, we lean with the home team especially with Toledo traveling on a short week with Northern Illinois on deck. South Alabama 24 GEORGIA ST 23. A big game for two team s bowl positioning in the Sun Belt as the two teams both have 3 straight up wins overall and 2 wins in conference action. Both teams have played Troy in recent weeks with South Alabama getting a 19-8 (+17.5) outright upset win at Troy two weeks ago while Georgia St fell to Troy at home last week (+7.5). Down to the wire. NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27 Eastern Michigan 18. Northern Illinois has won 9 straight meetings over Eastern going 7-2 ATS. However, Eastern is on a 8-0 ATS run as a road underdog. Last week on these pages EMU (+3) over Western Michigan was a 2H and they would lose their 5th straight game all by a TD or less as the game pushed in OT with WMU winning (full recap on page 1). On the other side, NIU trounced BG t48-17 (-14.5) to move within one game of bowl eligibility. Slightest of leans on NIU as EMU is playing 4th road game in 5 weeks and traveling on a short week and could be exhausted. Stanford 37 OREGON ST 17. Stanford has won 7 straight in the series (6-1 ATS) and both teams come in off a bye. This line has dropped nearly 3 points this week in favor of Oregon St and we think that is correct line movement here. The 1-6 Beavers did show some fight with interim coach Cory Hall in their last game, only a 3-point loss at home to Colorado. Meanwhile, Stanford has won 4 straight and is right back in bowl contention but does have a key game at Washington St next week. At the current number, we find more value in the UNDER than on the side. Friday, October 27th Florida St 26 BOSTON COLLEGE 21. Florida St has beat Boston College 7 straight times going 4-3 ATS. The Noles come in desperate at 2-4 SU and ATS after last week s 3-point loss at home to Louisville which saw head coach Jimbo Fisher argue with a fan after the game. With road games at Clemson and Florida still left, the Noles can ill afford a loss here. On the other side, BC has scored 40 or more points in back-to-back games for the first time in 15 years as they come off back-to-back upsets of Louisville and Virginia. However, the Eagles have covered 5 straight games and beat the closing spread by 61 points in the last two. That makes them overvalued here. MEMPHIS 38 Tulane 26. Memphis has beat Tulane 10 straight times going 8-2 ATS. Last week Memphis rallied from a 17-0 deficit at Houston to pull out the late win as they now find themselves ranked in the AP Top 25 (ridiculous as we only have them No. 46 in our power ratings). Meanwhile, Tulane s rally late (trailed 34-7) vs USF came up just short as they lost (+11) as VIP customers won a H-rated play on the UNDER. Slight lean on home team. SMU 42 Tulsa 31. Last week off a bye, SMU had a fight on their hands in an OT win at Cincinnati as they are now one win away from bowl eligibility. The Ponies could be a dog in their next 3 games so this one is important. Tulsa needs to win out to get to a bowl after losing to lowly Connecticut last week on the road. The Golden Hurricane were actually being shut out in that game until the mid-4q (trailed 20-0) and their RB Brewer is? here. Slight lean on the home team and the UNDER. Saturday, October 28th PURDUE 26 Nebraska 23. Purdue does come in off a misleading loss to Rutgers last week as the Boilers had 25-8 first down and yard edges. Purdue was -2 in TO s and were stopped on downs 3 times (like having 5 TO s). On the flip side, Nebraska comes in fresh off a bye and head coach Mike Riley s job is clearly on the line down the stretch with a new A.D. Slight lean on the Huskers here. KENTUCKY 24 Tennessee 21. Tennessee is on a 31-1 SU run vs Kentucky going 23-9 ATS. Depending on where the line closes, this could be the largest underdog role vs the Wildcats since 1977! Obviously, the Vols come in as one of the biggest disappointments in the country at 3-4 SU but ATS as they were manhandled by Alabama last week 45-7 (+36.5). Head coach Butch Jones is no doubt a lame duck at this point as the Vols haven t scored an offensive TD in 14 Q s. Meanwhile, Kentucky is just one win away from bowl eligibility but they are off a 45-7 (+14) crushing loss at Mississippi St. This line has dropped this week and there is no longer value on the Vols. Pass. SOUTH CAROLINA 28 Vanderbilt 18. South Carolina has beat Vanderbilt 8 straight times going 4-4 ATS. Both teams come in off a bye but these are two teams heading in opposite directions as SC is one win away from bowl eligibility (3 straight covers) while Vandy has failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games and lost the games by an average of We like the Gamecocks here. 3 AKRON 26 Buffalo 23. Akron did get out-rushed last week in their blowout loss at Toledo (+15). However, the Zips are still 3-1 in MAC play and still have a shot at a bowl. Meanwhile, Buffalo was down to their 3rd string QB and fell to Miami, Oh (+3), suffering their first ATS loss vs an FBS foe this year. There is some uncertainty here as Buffalo could get back their starting QB here in Tyree Jackson. We ll pass for now. Louisville 31 WAKE FOREST 27. Last year Wake Forest led in the 4Q but Louisville would score the game s final 34 points. The Cardinals come in off a big win at Florida St last week. That snapped a 5-game ATS losing streak and Louisville still could position themselves for a nice bowl game (will be favored in every game down stretch). Meanwhile, Wake has lost 3 straight games after a 4-0 start after losing to Georgia Tech last week. It was misleading as WF led The Demon Deacons need this one badly with a road trip to ND on deck. Lean UNDER. Miami, FL 34 NORTH CAROLINA 16. Miami does have revenge for loss to NC last year. The Tar Heels are in their largest home underdog role since Coincidently, it was Miami who was favored by 22 over North Carolina in 2004, a game NC won outright We think Miami is an overrated team in the market place and VIP customers fully took advantage with a H-rated winner on Syracuse going against the Canes last week. Still kudos for Richt and Co. as they have now won 11 straight games dating back to last year. Slight lean on NC here as the Canes have huge home games vs Va Tech and Notre Dame on deck. MICHIGAN 35 Rutgers 9. Michigan won last year s game 78-0, which was Rutgers worst loss since Remarkably after last week s loss to Penn St, the Wolverines are now only 6-5 SU in their last 11 games and head coach Harbaugh is starting to take some flak in the national media. UM should be plenty focused here vs a Rutgers team that is off back-to-back Big Ten wins. However, last week s win (+9.5) over Purdue was misleading as the Scarlet Knights were out-fd d 25-8 and outgained Slight lean on UM. MARSHALL 31 Florida International 14. Marshall has been one of the surprise teams in CFB this year as the Thundering Herd are now 6-1 SU/ATS after last week s dominating win at Middle Tennessee. FIU has also been a slight surprise at 4-2 SU under first year head coach Butch Davis and the Panthers are coming in off a bye. Don t see too much value here. Pass. Appalachian St 30 MASSACHUSETTS 24. After having two straight bye weeks, UMass came out with their hair on fire last week and crushed Georgia Southern (-7.5) as the Minutemen racked up 670 yards of offense while notching their first win of the season. On the other side, App St while a bit disappointing this year (2-5 ATS) can get to bowl eligibility with a win here. The Mountaineers are off a pair of non-covering wins at Idaho and vs Coastal Carolina. However, we think last week s results give us value on Appalachian St as this line is short. 2H Virginia 24 PITTSBURGH 23. Two weeks ago this line might have been pickem or even seen UVA favored on the road. However, the Cavs lost at home to Boston College (-6.5) while Pitt pulled the outright upset at Duke (+9). The Panthers did have a rushing yard edge in that game as RB Hall had 254 rushing yards. The game completely changed on a 92-yard TD run with Pitt trailing 17-7 late 3Q. We ll play against those disparate results from last week and take the road team who can get to bowl eligibility with a win here. Also this is a must win for UVA who will be a dog in each of their last 4 games. CLEMSON 30 Georgia Tech 16. The home team is on a 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS in the series. Georgia Tech has covered 10 straight games dating back to last year after last week s win (-3.5) vs Wake Forest as the Yellow Jackets rallied from a deficit. Meanwhile, Clemson has extra time to prep for the option after having a bye last week and their defense shut down GT s option a year ago holding them to season-lows in points (7) and yards (124). The big question is the health status of QB Bryant who suffered a concussion in the loss to Syracuse two weeks ago while also ailing with an ankle injury. Even if he plays here, we expect a conservative game plan. We pass on the side and lean with the UNDER here. Missouri 42 CONNECTICUT 30. Last week we had one of our easiest winners ever on these pages with Missouri as they crushed Idaho as 2-TD favorites. On the other side, UConn is starting to get it going under head coach Edsall as the Huskies have won and covered back-to-back games. Last week they had a solid defensive effort vs Tulsa as they held the Golden Hurricane scoreless until mid-4q. We re passing here but the total seems pretty high. Oklahoma St 40 WEST VIRGINIA 31. Oklahoma St is traveling on back-to-back weeks off the OT win at Texas last week. With OSU s offense having their worst performance of the season, the D saved the day and kept their playoff hopes alive. On the other side, West Virginia led Baylor before having to hold on for dear life in a win (stopped a 2-point conversion attempt in the final seconds). Oklahoma St has the big defensive edge here as they ve held 3 opponents to season lows this year and we bet the Pokes here at a very advantageous early number on Sunday. Indiana 28 MARYLAND 23. Both these teams had very bad beats go against them a week ago. Maryland +24 saw Wisconsin kick a FG with :36 left and the Terps would lose by 25. On the other side, we were extremely fortunate to cash a 3H going against Indiana (see page 1). The Hoosiers are clearly the better team especially on defense but they are coming off back-to-back physical games vs Michigan and Michigan St. We re passing here. VIRGINIA TECH 31 Duke 16. This has been a very close series with each of the last 4 meetings decided by a FG or less. After a 4-0 SU/ATS start, the Blue Devils have lost 4 straight games (0-3-1 ATS). Last week, they led Pitt 17-7 late 3Q but a 92-yard TD run by the Panthers changed the entire complexion of the game and Duke lost (-9). Note that Duke has been out-rushed the last two weeks and is playing a 9th straight week. On the other side, off a bye, the Hokies crushed a hapless North Carolina team 59-7 (-20.5). There could be a little bit of a look ahead here for the Hokies who have Miami, FL on deck. We re passing.

4 COASTAL CAROLINA 30 Texas St 24. You would think that Texas St should be fresh here as they haven t played since October 12. The Bobcats have failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games. Meanwhile, Coastal is 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS since beating UMass in the opener. Slightest of leans on the road team but note that Sunday Night Owl customers got Texas St at Wisconsin 38 ILLINOIS 12. Wisconsin has beat Illinois 7 straight times going 5-2 ATS including last year 48-3 (-24.5). Last week the Badgers got a fortunate cover (see page 1) as they beat Maryland (-24). True frosh RB Taylor has already topped 1,000 yards on the season. On the other side, Illinois lost to Minnesota (+14) as they scored a late TD with :23 left to get the back door. The Illini are one of the youngest teams in the country as they have played 21 true freshman with 8 of them in the starting line-up. Pass. Kansas St 40 KANSAS 13. Bill Snyder owns Kansas St s main rival as Snyder is on a 19-1 SU/18-2 ATS run vs Kansas! The Wildcats nearly pulled off a shocking upset last week as they gave Oklahoma all they could handle in a loss (+14.5) with Oklahoma scoring a TD in the final seconds. QB Delton showed much improvement going 12 of 14 passing while also topping 140 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, Kansas lost their 44th straight road game as they were shut out at TCU 43-0 while only managing 21 yards of total offense (all-time low in Big 12). It got so bad that there was actually a moving clock in the 4Q. Slight lean on road team. IOWA 24 Minnesota 16. Critical game for both teams as they try to position themselves for a bowl bid. Last week Iowa lost at Northwestern in OT as they were playing without their defensive leader in LB Jewell. Meanwhile, the Gophers gave up the late backdoor in a win vs Illinois. QB Croft struggled after impressing the week before vs Michigan St. We re passing here. WYOMING 27 New Mexico 23. Wyoming has revenge for a loss to New Mexico last year in a game that didn t have much meaning for them as they had the Mountain West conference championship game on deck. Last week New Mexico ran for 318 yards vs Colorado St and got the backdoor cover scoring a TD with :24 left. On the other side, Wyoming played a good game vs Boise St only losing by 10 on the Smurf Turf. QB Allen was only 12 of 31 for 131 yards. We don t understand the line move here as we like the home underdog to win (we even bet a bad number early in the week). Arkansas St 35 NEW MEXICO ST 31. Arkansas St has covered 6 straight in the series. New Mexico St comes in off a bye as the Aggies still have a legitimate shot at ending the longest bowl drought in the FBS (no bowl game since 1960). The Aggies are ATS this season with their only non-cover being a bad beat at Appalachian St). Meanwhile, Arkansas St continues their domination of Sun Belt opponents as they are now on a 19-1 SU run after beating ULL 47-3 (-12.5). We lean with the home underdog here. BYU 30 San Jose St 16. A matchup featuring two very disappointing teams with their only wins coming against FCS opponents this year. San Jose St comes in off a bye after the Spartans showed a bit of improvement in their previous two games (respectable losses to Fresno and at Hawaii). Meanwhile, BYU is now 0-8 ATS this year after they lost at lowly East Carolina last week (outscored 23-7 in the second half). We ve downgraded the Cougars more than any other team in the country this year and it still might not be enough. Pass. Utsa 28 UTEP 13. The 0-7 Miners come in off a bye after only managing 6 first downs on offense in a 24-0 loss to Southern Miss. They have an interim head coach in Mike Price and not much to play for. Meanwhile, 4-2 SU UTSA is in the hunt for another bowl bid but the Roadrunners are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games including a ho-hum 20-7 win (-20) over Rice last week. Pass on side, lean on UNDER. IDAHO 31 UL-Monroe 28. Idaho has covered all 3 SBC meetings winning as a 3 point underdog last year (34-31) and as a 1 point underdog the last time here (27-13). As expected on these pages last week, the Vandals were non-competitive in the loss at Missouri (outgained ) but in their other 6 games (all Group of 5) the dog has covered all 6 including 3 outright upsets. That bodes well for the Warhawks as they are 3-1 ATS on the road. With that being said, we re passing here. COLORADO ST 38 Air Force 27. Both teams off Friday night 3 point conference road wins but the Falcons are playing their second straight and fourth road game in 5 weeks. The Falcons offense has been in gear averaging 562 YPG their last 3 including a season high 36 FD s last week at Nevada. The Rams are at home in their new stadium for only the second time in 6 games as they are coming off a win at New Mexico. Colorado St does have a scheduling edge playing the option for a second straight week but the defense did allow the Lobos to gain 450 yards including 6.6 YPC as they were outgained. Pass. SOUTHERN MISS 33 Uab 20. Southern Miss is not happy that they must face UAB again as they are 1-5 ATS in the series including going 0-3 ATS at home with two upset losses. The teams certainly had disparate 4Q s last week as the Golden Eagles scored 11 points in the final 1:23 to force OT and win at La Tech (much to our dismay on these pages see page 1). Meanwhile the Blazers allowed a TD and a 2-point conversion on the final play and lost in OT blew a 17-0 early lead. UAB s last 4 games have now been a 1 pt loss, a 2 pt win, a 1 pt win and a 3 pt loss. How much do they have left here? Pass. COLORADO 30 California 26. The Cal Bears are showing heart under their new head coach Justin Wilcox as they were coming off a nationally televised upset of Washington St and trailed Arizona 21-7 at halftime before coming back and forcing OT. In the 2OT the Bears went for two and failed in their loss. The Buffaloes haven t played with that same spirit as they are now 1-6 ATS their last 7 games after getting shutout against Washington St and QB Steven Montez was benched at halftime after going 4 of 13 for 21 yards as MacIntrye announced the position open for competition. We re passing on the side (Cal 0-10 SU/1-9 ATS last 10 Pac-12 road games) and leaning with OVER here. ARIZONA ST 28 Usc 27. The winner of this game will be the Pac-12 South leader. The Trojans fell behind 28-0 in their loss at Notre Dame and are now 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road getting outgained by 60 yards at Cal, 135 yards at Washington St and 161 yards at Notre Dame. Arizona St has been the polar opposite not only covering their last 4 games but winning 3 of those outright as 14.5 dog versus Oregon, a 17.5 point dog versus Washington and a 10 point dog at Utah last week. The greatly improved D has held their last 2 foes to a season low in yardage holding the Huskies to 230 yards and Utah to 265 yards. Outright! Louisiana Tech 30 RICE 17. La Tech s loss last week was one of the most difficult we ve had especially as a top play. The Bulldogs had an 11 point lead and allowed a FG with 1:23 left but they couldn t cover the on-side kick and allowed a TD plus the 2-pt conversion eventually losing in 2OT. In their last month, the Bulldogs have now lost by a single point twice (SC & UAB 22-23), beat WKU and gave away LW s game which will challenge their mental prep. Rice is closing in as the worst team in the FBS as they have been held to under 8 PPG and 282 YPG their last 5 and are 1-5 ATS as a double-digit dog. La Tech had won and covered 3 straight in the series by a count but we can t go back to the Bulldogs again here after last week s heartbreak. Lean UNDER. Utah 27 OREGON 26. To say the Oregon offense has missed the injured QB Hebert is an understatement as the Ducks averaged 50 PPG and 537 YPG their first 5 but are 0-3 SU/ATS their last 3 scoring 10 PPG and gaining 302 YPG. Utah was also without their starting QB Tyler Huntley their previous 2 games, both losses, and while he returned LW against Arizona St he threw 4 int s and Utah trailed 30-3 before a TD with under 3 minutes left. OU HC Taggart has admitted that with his backup QB there are no audibles and very few QB runs and that is certainly the main reason they ve been shutout in the 2H for THREE straight games. With that being said, we still think Utah is a bit overpriced here. 3H NC State (plus the points) NOTRE DAME 28 NC State 27. Not many thought this meeting would be featuring a pair of AP top 15 teams. That of course means added pressure which the Irish are facing for a second straight week while NC State was on a bye. Notre Dame made quick work of USC and had the game sealed with a 28-0 halftime edge. The Irish are going to run the ball as they are averaging 318 YPG and 7.1 YPC and it s no coincidence that their only loss was versus Georgia (No. 4 Rush D) as they were held to 55 rush yards and 1.5 YPC. NCSt s rush D is almost as good as they are ranked No. 6 (91.3 YPG & 3.0 YPC) and the Wolfpack are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS with rest and their QB Finley hasn t thrown a interception all year (313 attempts)! WASHINGTON 38 Ucla 21. You wouldn t think that a team that has allowed 187 YPG over their last 3 is only 2-1, but the Huskies are just that after they only gained 230 yards and scored 7 points in a loss at Arizona St prior to their bye. UCLA meanwhile moved to 4-3 after a win against Colorado but all 4 wins have come at home (only +47 YPG as average favorite) while going 0-3 SU/ATS on the road failing to cover by 13 PPG. Bruins QB Josh Rosen has a 12-1 ratio at home but 7-7 away. Too steep of a line to like the Huskies. Pass. TROY 37 Gerogia Southern 13. Ga Southern fans were excited when Tyson Summers won his first 3 games here but since that point the Eagles were 2-13 SU while going ATS. Chad Lunford takes over from his duties of assistant HC who handled TE s and the special teams. The final straw came last week when the Eagles went to play a winless UMass team and allowed 466 yards in the 1H en route to a loss. Troy has dropped all 3 SBC games to this foe including LY when they were 9-2 in their regular season finale. The Trojans return home off a previously home loss where they held South Alabama to 239 yards but they were -3 TO s in the loss. Last week the defense again played great allowing Ga St 307 yards and 10 points in a comfortable This line is too steep for our liking. Pass. Michigan St 17 NORTHWESTERN 16. We were extremely fortunate to get a cover with MSU on these pages last week (see page 1). Mich St s offense in conference play is averaging 299 YPG while their defense is allowing 269 YPG. Those numbers will lead to many close games especially on the road where the dog is 11-1 ATS in Mich St games including the Spartans going 0-7 ATS the last 3 years as an away favorite. The Wildcats OT win against Iowa last week moved them to 4-1 ATS their last 5 games with the lone non-cover coming against Penn St as they were -3 in TO s. Wildcats D also playing well allowing B10 foes only 335 YPG. Lean Northwestern but we prefer the UNDER. 2H NORTH TEXAS 37 Old Dominion 20. Old Dominion started the season 2-0 (albeit wins over UMass & Albany) but have now dropped 5 straight. The Monarchs did get their first cover of that losing streak and won their first yardage battle ( ) in last week s WKU contest as they held a lead into the 4Q but were outscored The FBS youngest QB Steven Williams is still struggling with picks as he had a 0-3 ratio LW and has a 2-9 ratio his last 4 games. North Texas has shown solid improvement in HC Seth Litrell s second season but after pulling back-to-back upsets against S Miss and UTSA they were run over at Florida Atlantic allowing 69 points and 804 yards. Sometimes getting blown out is much easier to come back from than a last second loss and the Mean Green know they are still in first in the CUSA-West and control their own destiny. They roll here. 4

5 Texas 31 BAYLOR 22. Close but no cigar again for the Longhorns who again covered as a dog (now 3-0 here) under HC Tom Herman but fell short pulling the outright upset this time to Oklahoma St as the defense held the Cowboys to a season low 428 yards but the offense was also held to a season low 283 yards including 1.3 YPC rushing. Baylor may be 0-7 after losing to WV and while they trailed into the 4Q they did comeback and cover (now 2-0 ATS as a HD) and they ve covered 3 of their last 4 games. Texas QB Ehlinger is banged up. Lean UNDER. 2H TCU 31 IOWA ST 20. The Horned Frogs were not tested at all in their 43-0 shutout over Kansas last week but they now take to road and face an Iowa St team that trails them by only ½ game in the standings. Unlike past years, TCU should be focused here On the other side, Iowa St QB Kyle Kempt (70%, 7-1 ratio) has now made 3 starts for Jacob Parks but he will be facing a much tougher defense than what he s seen. The Horned Frogs have been road warriors so far this season at 3-0 SU/ATS and they get another win and cover here. Georgia 27 Florida FL. Georgia comes into this game outscoring their foes by 25 PPG and outgaining them by 202 YPG. The Bulldogs have yet to be challenged in SEC action as their win over Missouri was their closet conference game. Florida meanwhile won two conference games in September by a combined 5 points but lost two slugfests prior to their bye. The Gators fell by one point to LSU at home (outgained ) and then lost to A&M by two points (had edge). We can t see the Gators moving the ball against a Bulldog D allowing 243 YPG in SEC play. However, this is the largest favorite role for UGA in this series in 40-plus years and they haven t beat the Gators by more than 14 since Florida Atlantic 36 WESTERN KENTUCKY 30. WKU may be 5-2 but this is not the same team which has won B2B CUSA Titles. The Hilltoppers five wins have come against an FCS foe, Ball St (2-5), UTEP (0-7), Charlotte (1-7) and Old Dom (2-5) and amazingly they have been a favorite in every game until this week. It is fair to say Lane Kiffin can manage an offense as his Owls squad has put up 165 points and 1793 yards in 3 conference games but what surprised me is QB Jason Driskel only has a 3-1 ratio in those games. Devin Singletary (450 yds & 6.7 YPC last 3) had 2 rush TD s the first 3 games but has 12 in his last 4 games. Doesn t bode well for a WKU D which allowed 516 rushing yards & 6.6 YPC to Charlotte and Old Dominion. Still, this looks like an inflated line. Lean home team. 2H OVER 64.5 Washington St 38 ARIZONA 34. Hats off to Washington St as they were coming off their first loss off the season and they dominated Colorado with a 28-0 win. While the Cougars are 4-1 in Pac-12 action their upset over USC doesn t look as good and their other 4 opponents are a combined 3-16 in conference action. The Wildcats are coming off a 2OT win at Cal and have now won 3 straight Pac-12 games for the first time since It s no coincidence that it s the same 3 game span that QB Khalil Tate (231 rushing YPG & 16.1 YPC last 3) has started and won 3 straight Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week awards. The Wildcats are now No. 4 in rushing at 342 YPG and lead the conference in scoring (43.1). Cougars counter with rush D allowing 120 YG & 3.4 YPC. Better defense has us leaning with Washington St here but we prefer the OVER. OKLAHOMA 44 Texas Tech 24. Fireworks occurred last year as these two set an NCAA record with 1,708 (854 each) yards. Lincoln Riley was a walk-on QB at TT and played behind Kliff Kinsgbury in 2002 before spending the next 9 years as an asst coach. The Sooners have now dropped 4 straight against the spread and are playing their first game at home since their loss to Iowa St. LW OU trailed at HT before outscoring KSt in the 2H. Tech now plays on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks and LW they were held to under 27 points for only the third time Updated College Football Power Ratings for Week 9 Rank Team Pre 10/24 1 Alabama Ohio State Penn State Georgia Clemson Oklahoma Auburn Notre Dame TCU Washington Oklahoma State Wisconsin Miami (FL) Stanford NC State USC Virginia Tech Washington State Michigan LSU Louisville UCF Mississippi State Georgia Tech Texas Florida State USF Michigan State Iowa State Texas A&M Kansas State Florida West Virginia Rank Team Pre 10/24 34 Arizona State UCLA Indiana South Carolina Wake Forest Utah Syracuse Northwestern Iowa Arizona Texas Tech Boise State Memphis Boston College Toledo Duke California Colorado State Colorado Houston Kentucky Tennessee Purdue Pittsburgh Vanderbilt Oregon Navy Virginia Missouri San Diego State Minnesota Arkansas Nebraska in 35 games against a much improved Iowa St squad (Iowa St also held them to 10 points LY). Not sure we can trust this OU defense. Pass. OLE MISS 33 Arkansas 30. The Hogs certainly have had the Rebels number as they have won each of the last 3 games outright despite being a 10 point dog LY (34-30), an 8 point dog in 15 (53-52) and a 3 point dog in 14 (30-0). This year the Razorbacks limp in at 2-5 SU/ATS with the wins coming against an FCS team and New Mexico St. Ole Miss not much better as they are 1-4 SU the L5 and 2-5 ATS on the season. The Rebels news got worse as they lost QB Shea Patterson for the rest of year, Center Sen Rawlings is in concussion protocol and #1 RB Jordan Wilkins is doubtful). We re passing. OHIO ST 31 Penn St 24. Penn St was a 9.5 point underdog in this game just a few weeks ago. Since that time, Penn St has won three straight by 28 PPG covering by 13 PPG while Ohio St has won their last 3 by 49 PPG covering by 20 PPG. The difference is the Buckeyes were on a bye while Penn St was playing in front of a huge TV audience. Now Ohio St is playing with extra time to prep (Urban Meyer 47-4 SU/ ATS w/extra rest) and they are playing with revenge (Ohio St 14-0 ATS w/ revenge against team with winning record). Penn St played inspired in front of whiteout but rushing for 98 yards with a 2.5 YPC at NW and 39 yards and 1.1 YPC against Indiana is a cause for concern against Ohio ST DL playing up to its potential allowing 2.9 YPC. Bucks win and cover. TEXAS A&M 28 Mississippi St 27. Mississippi St is now 5-2 SU/ATS with both losses coming on the road to Georgia and Auburn. Miss St easily overmatched Kentucky and BYU the last two weeks. A&M Fr QB Kellen Mond struggled two weeks ago (8 of 24) but did lead the Aggies to a last minute FG as they came back to beat Florida on the road Now they are fresh off a bye and are playing with revenge. Slight lean on the home team. Boise St 31 UTAH ST 21. The Broncos have won 13 of the last 14 in this series (covered 5 of 6 here) but the last time here Boise was ranked as a 9.5 point favorite losing The Broncos keep playing QB roulette with Montel Cozart and Brett Rypien. Their 3 game win streak however can be credited to the defense which has allowed 238, 323 and 242 yards their L3 games. Utah St is coming of a misleading win as they trailed UNLV early before UNLV s QB was KO d. Aggies other wins this season came against lowly BYU, San Jose St and Idaho St. Lean Boise. FRESNO ST 37 Unlv 20. Fresno St is ATS with their only SU losses against a pair of playoff teams from LY (Bama & Wash). Quite a turnaround in Jeff Tedford s first season as the Bulldogs were 4-20 the L2Y and were a dog in every FBS game. Fresno s revival is thanks to a D and have allowed their non-p5 foes only 249 YPG and 6.8 PPG. QB Marcus McMaryion is the perfect complement fo the shutdown D as he leads the MW in Pass Eff with a 7-1 ratio. Rebels offense was showing improvement with Armani Rodgers but he was KO d early LW and going through concussion protocol making this game a wait and see. Pass for now. San Diego St 34 HAWAII 23. With Rocky Long as your HC you know you will run the ball well and have a solid defense and that s what the Aztecs had starting the season with upset wins over Arizona St and Stanford. The OL started to get banged up and they have now been upset in B2B home games scoring 14 points and gaining 323 yards versus Boise then they were held to 3 points and 255 yards LW against Fresno. Hawaii s offense has topped 450 yards and 21 points in every game this season but their defense has allowed yards in 4 of their last 5 games and they ve allowed 39 PPG versus FBS foes. San Diego St has won and covered each of the last 5 meetings and we ll call for them to get back on track here. SOUTH FLORIDA 34 Houston 24. The USF train keeps rolling as one of 8 undefeated teams still remaining. The ground heavy attack (No. 7 averaging 305 YPG rush) set an NCAA record with its 24th consecutive game scoring 30+ points last week but they did have to hold off a late Tulane rally (led 34-7). Meanwhile, the Cougars did have a season high 554 yards and led by 17 over vs Memphis last week but the defense allowed two TD drives the final 5:14 in a 4-point loss. This will be the Cougars first underdog role of the season. We re passing. Rank Team Pre 10/24 67 Ole Miss Maryland Fresno State Western Michigan Baylor Arkansas State Northern Illinois SMU Florida Atlantic Marshall Troy Appalachian State Ohio Army Tulane North Carolina Southern Miss Eastern Michigan UTSA Rutgers Louisiana Tech Air Force Wyoming Oregon State Western Kentucky Utah State New Mexico Temple New Mexico State Akron Central Michigan Illinois Tulsa Biggest Movers Since Preseason Rank Team Pre 10/24 Team Pts 100 Miami (OH) UCF BYU North Texas Fresno St Cincinnati Purdue Massachusetts Florida Atl Buffalo Georgia Middle Tennessee Michigan St Nevada South Alabama TCU Hawaii Marshall Connecticut Iowa St UNLV Mississippi St FIU Notre Dame Georgia State UL-Lafayette Ga Southern UL-Monroe Old Dominion UAB Arkansas Old Dominion USC Idaho Oregon St East Carolina Kansas Bowling Green Bowling Green W Kentucky Rice Ole Miss Coastal Carolina Tennessee Kent State Oregon Ball State Georgia Southern Tulsa Charlotte Baylor UTEP San Jose St San Jose State North Carolina Texas State Florida St BYU -17.0

6 Updated College Football Records: Straight Up, ATS and Over/Under Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Ov Home Away Overall Home Away Overall Home Away Air Force Akron Alabama Appalachian St Arizona State Arizona Arkansas Arkansas State Army Auburn Ball State Baylor Boise State Boston College Bowling Green Buffalo BYU California Central Florida Central Mich Charlotte Cincinnati Clemson Coastal Carolina Colorado Colorado State Connecticut Duke East Carolina Eastern Mich Florida Atlantic Florida Florida Intl Florida State Fresno State Georgia Ga Southern Georgia State Georgia Tech Hawaii Houston Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Iowa State Kansas Kansas State Kent State Kentucky LSU Louisiana Tech Louisville Marshall Maryland Massachusetts Memphis Miami (FL) Miami (OH) Michigan State Michigan Middle Tenn Minnesota Mississippi Mississippi State Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Ov Home Away Overall Home Away Overall Home Away Missouri Navy Nebraska Nevada New Mexico New Mexico St NC State North Carolina North Texas Northern Illinois Northwestern Notre Dame Ohio Ohio State Oklahoma Oklahoma State Old Dominion Oregon Oregon State Penn State Pittsburgh Purdue Rice Rutgers San Diego State San Jose State SMU South Alabama South Carolina South Florida Southern Miss Stanford Syracuse TCU Temple Tennessee Texas A&M Texas Texas State Texas Tech Toledo Troy Tulane Tulsa UAB UCLA UL-Lafayette UL-Monroe UNLV USC Utah State Utah UTEP UTSA Vanderbilt Virginia Virginia Tech Wake Forest Washington Washington St West Virginia W Kentucky Western Mich Wisconsin Wyoming CFB VIP Late Phone/ Service (Includes Every CFB H-Rated Play): Just $299 Call ! Mention Special Code: Page 6 6

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